Brad Wilton
Comp play for Saturday is the Capitals on the Puck Line over the Ducks.
It's not that Anaheim is a bad team, it's just that Washington playing on their home ice is a beast that not too many teams tangle with and live to tell about it when the game goes final.
The Capitals have won 5 straight games, and better still they have won 11 straight on their home ice with their last 9 home victories coming by 2 goals or better.
During their current 5 game win streak, the Caps have outscored the opposition by a 24-7 count.
The Ducks just snapped a 3 game losing streak on Thursday with a road win at Buffalo, but beating the Sabres on their home ice is totally different than beating the Capitals on their home ice.
Washington in a zone right now, and a 2-goals or better win looks damn good to me!
Caps on the Puck Line the play for Saturday.
4* WASHINGTON -1.5
Brad Wilton
Texas A&M has been tough on Florida of late, as the Aggies come to Gainesville with outright series wins in the last pair of meetings, and 3 of the last 4 overall. A&M has also covered in 2 of the last 3 series meetings. Not only that, but Texas A&M is riding a 4-2 straight up mark their last 6 games, including wins in their last pair of games played.
Solid stuff for sure, but right now Florida is on another level.
The Gators have reeled off 5 straight SEC wins and covers, and they have won all of them by double-digits. In fact, the average margin of victory during the Gators current uptick is a whopping 28 points per game!!!
Texas A&M is just 4-10 against the spread their last 14 games, while Florida is the exact opposite at 10-4 their last 14 lined home games.
With double-revenge on their side, and with the team rolling thunder right now, wise to lay the wood with the Gators.
Florida BIG early on Saturday.
5* FLORIDA
Jack Brayman
My free play for Saturday is on the Alabama Crimson Tide against the No. 15 Kentucky, as something tells me the Wildcats are going to be a bit sluggish for this one.
Word out of Tuscaloosa is the Wildcats were subject to a trio of false alarms at team hotel overnight. The first alarm went off at 3:30 a.m., and was followed by two more, at 5 and 7 a.m. It's not as if it can effect their overall game, but it does mean that a break in sleep pattern could cause the 'Cats to open the game a bit fuzzy.
And if the Tide can roll out early and build some momentum, the margin will stay tight. And lest we forget, the last time the Wildcats were on the road they were embarrassed 88-66 at Florida, last Saturday.
Let's take the home underdog in this one.
5* ALABAMA
Eric Schroeder
My free play for tonight is on the Arizona Wildcats, as they host the Cal Golden Bears in Tucson. While the ninth-ranked Wildcats (22-3, 11-1 Pac-12) survived a closer-than-expected 74-67 home win over Stanford, the bigger victory might have been when UCLA was busy knocking off Oregon.
Arizona's win and Oregon's loss dropped the Ducks into second and left the Wildcats alone atop the league standings.
And since last Saturday the Wildcats were destroyed in a 27-point loss at Oregon, they'll be looking to rebound this Saturday at home against a physical Cal team that just won at Arizona State on Wednesday night 68-43.
Cal has won five consecutive games and eight of its past nine, but Arizona already won the first meeting, 67-62 at Cal back on Dec. 30. The 'Cats have also covered five of the last seven meetings.
Take the home team in this one.
3* ARIZONA
SPORTS WAGERS
Florida +145 over NASHVILLE
OT included. The good people of Nashville have probably never even heard of the Florida Panthers in much the same way the good people of Florida have probably never heard of Bill Munroe. This is a matinee game in Music City featuring a team that plays here about once every leap year. The point is that the Preds have bigger fish to fry and the atmosphere in the arena will absolutely not be as electric as it would be on a Saturday night against the Blues, Blackhawks, Ducks or a bunch more. Should the Preds get caught napping, something they have not been immune to this year, trouble looms. Even if the Preds come out sharp and play well, they are still in danger of losing this game.
We can almost guarantee a strong effort from the Panthers. Florida was flat in the first two periods against the Kings on Thursday but you could see them getting their legs back as the game wore on. Of the 30 teams in the NHL, you would be hard pressed to find one that brings more consistent intensity and desire than the Panthers. This is a team that has been undermanned all year long but remained a difficult out. Now healthy and with a much more balanced attack because of it, fading this visitor is not recommended. The Panthers poured it on in the third period on Thursday. Prior to the break, they reeled off three wins in a row over Tampa, Ottawa and Anaheim. The Panthers playing without Jonathan Huberdeau, Nick Bjugstad and Aleksander Barkov for a good portion of this season would be equivalent to the Maple Leafs playing without Austin Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander. Now the Panthers are priced like those three are still out. Win or lose, the value here is tremendous and we’re on it.
N.Y. Islanders +110 over OTTAWA
OT Included. Note the 1:00 PM EST start. Ottawa is playing tentative and it’s getting worse by the day. The Sens can hear footsteps for sure and actually quite lucky to get by Dallas on Thursday and only did so because a Dallas player scored on his own open net on a delayed penalty. Ottawa has three wins over its past eight games. Prior to defeating the Stars, the Sens had lost two in a row to Buffalo and St. Louis while being outscored by 10 goals in those two losses. The Sens are playing some careless hockey and while they remain dangerous because if their offensive prowess, they’re also a big risk when spotting a tag. Furthermore, the Islanders are in great form and figure to be the more relaxed bunch here.
The Islanders have been written off many times this season and they’re also a team that is being asked to vacate the building they play in. The Islanders fired their coach a short time ago and they also took heat for letting Frans Nielson walk among others before the season started. Rumors of John Tavaras wanting out have been circulating all season too. What all of that crap has created is a team with massive chip on its shoulder that is on a mission and that is playing great hockey. The Isles have picked up 18 out of a possible 22 points over their past 11 game. That would be 20 out of 22 had it not been for one terrible game by Tomas Greiss. However, Greiss has proven to be a true #1 goaltender that is more than capable of stealing a game if need be. The Islanders are scoring goals at a great clip and they’ll come into this game as a dog despite being the hottest team in the NHL. The Islanders will also come into this game just one point out of a Wild Card spot with three games in hand. There is no question as to where the value lies here.
St. Louis +109 over MONTREAL
OT included. This number opened with Montreal being -130 favorite but as word of Paul Stastny likely missing it spread, the price shot up. That’s what we call an overreaction. Stastny’s absence hurts for sure but we’re not going to overlook the way the Blues have responded to their new coach. Against Philadelphia, Ottawa and Toronto over its last three games, St. Louis has outscored that trio 10-1 and looked progressively better each game. Mike Yao puts an emphasis on structure and defense. The Blues may not play an exciting style but they’ll play an effective one that gets results. The Blue Notes were dominating against the Maple leafs on Thursday and only the goaltending of Fredrick Anderson prevented that game from being a rout.
The Canadiens return home from a brief Colorado/Arizona two-game trip. They have the Bruins on deck tomorrow in Boston before their bye week starts on Monday. The Habs played very well in Arizona but so what, as they lost to Colorado by four goals two nights earlier. Prior to beating the Coyotes in OT, Montreal had scored one goal or less in seven of its past 13 games. They had scored two or less in four straight while mustering a mere 27, 22, 22, 16, 22 and 20 shots on goal in six of its last eight games. After a hot start again this year, Montreal is again proving to be one of the easiest teams to play against only right now, Price isn’t bailing them out every game and we saw Price allow at least two soft goals to the Coyotes on Thursday. After playing perhaps the two worst teams in the league and going 1-1 (they could have just as easily been 0-2), Montreal is now taking a big step up in class and are being asked to spot a big price to a team with a rejuvenated spirit that is in great form. A huge overlay and a big overreaction to the Blues missing one player prompts us to step in.
Update: After writing this game up, the line dropped significantly because Al Montotya will play goal for the Canaidens tonight. That doesn't chance our position.
Chicago +116 over EDMONTON
OT included. The market may be a little hesitant to get behind the Blackhawks here because they will play their sixth straight on the road, their third game in four days and the tail end of back to backs after defeating Winnipeg last night. Chicago will also turn to its backup goaltender, Scott Darling. We could certainly understand if the Blackhawks were somewhat fatigued but we don’t care and it wouldn’t surprise us if they were energized either. Winning energizes teams’ and Chicago can extend its winning streak to five games here. They are playing at a very high level and so they are not a team you want to get in front of right now. That said, this is still more of a fade against the Oilers.
Forget about stats, motivation, form or anything else one may use to make a decision. We have been fading teams’ coming off their first ever bye week and we’re not about to let up here. On Thursday, Florida was coming off their bye and was down 6-1 to the Kings before scoring two late goals to make the final, 6-3. Teams’ coming off their byes are now 1-5 with Arizona being the only winner when they defeated Winnipeg 4-3 but got outshot 37-29. Of course Winnipeg is the only team to lose to a team coming off its bye. Who else would it be? These bye weeks have proven to be disastrous. It takes these players out of a routine that they’ve had for years, even as minor leaguers. It’s a vacation in the middle of the season and Chicago figures to take advantage of it in the same manner that five other teams did before them,
SPORTS WAGERS
SAN FRANCISCO -2½ over BYU
The Cougars are well known nationally after their many NCAA Tournament appearances, which includes an appearance in five of the last seven years. Like Gonzaga, playing in the West Coast Conference allows BYU to pad their record every season by pounding cupcakes. This year is no different. The Cougars have played the 196th toughest schedule in America. While beating up on the also-rans of the WCC has served them well, the Cougars often get the best every night from their conference opponents. That was on full display Thursday night, as the Cougars fell 99-83 as a nine point favorite at eight-win Pepperdine. After the game, Cougars guard Nick Emery said it best, “I don't know what it is with these teams, I mean they show up to play BYU that's for sure. Just an embarrassing effort by us.” BYU has owned this series with San Francisco winning eight straight games, including an 85-75 victory in Provo earlier this season. The Cougars have struggled on the road all year with losses at Santa Clara, San Diego and of course Pepperdine to name a few. That setback in Malibu Thursday night was BYU's fourth road loss in six games in conference play this season.
San Francisco had a huge 25-point lead late in the first half at home Thursday night before calling off the dogs and hanging on for a 61-58 win over Santa Clara. That was the Don's fourth straight win and we are not the least bit concerned about their inability to cover a five-point spread after taking such a big lead against the Broncos. USF had this game with BYU on deck and it's a big one so letting up in its last is no big deal. The Dons are tied with the Cougars for third in the conference. San Francisco was a powerhouse from the mid-1950s to the early 80s but haven't won a conference title since 1982 or made an NCAA tournament appearance since 1998. The Dons have been the Cougars whipping boy since the day BYU joined the WCC but now for the first time in a while, the Dons have the horses to compete and make life miserable for this overrated intruder. We see no signs of the Cougars' road woes letting up here and neither do the oddsmakers.
Texas A&M +13½ over FLORIDA
Lots of moving parts here that suggests that these are too many points to be spotting the Aggies. The Gators are almost a lock to make the tournament as a #3 #4 or #5 seed. If things go sour for the Gators down the stretch, they still won’t be worse than a #7 or #8 seed. The Gators are 19-5, they have won five in a row and who can forget last Saturday’s 22-point destruction over Kentucky. Weekend bettors absolutely recall that victory over the Wildcats and now you will pay a serious premium to back the Gators because of it. The second moving part may go unnoticed but this is not a usual start time for the Gators and they don’t like it. This is the third time this season at home on Saturday that the Gators will tip off at noon. The Gators played shaky, to say the least, in the first two noon tips of the season. The first came in an 80-76 overtime victory over Georgia, but Florida was lucky to come away with a win. Without outstanding play off the bench from Canyon Barry, that included two improbable four-point plays, the Gators probably wouldn’t have even been close to pulling out the win. The only other noon tip to this point did not end quite as well for Florida, as they lost outright to Vanderbilt, 68-66.
Florida lost both meetings of this matchup last season, in College Station and in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals so that makes Coach Mike White 0-2 versus the Aggies. No question that the Gators will be looking for redemption but there are other intangibles that suggest it might not be that easy.
Texas A&M is at the top of the SEC in offensive rebounding and fourth in total rebounding, led by Tyler Davis and Robert Williams, who both pull down 7.2 per game. The Aggies also lead the SEC in opponent rebounds. The Aggies also bring in five different players averaging double-digits this season. Looking back on their portfolio, only once over their past 10 games have the Aggies lost by the amount of points that are being offered here and only twice in 23 games this season have the Aggies lost by more than the allotted points being offered. If Florida is flat, complacent or not at its best, this one could bet scary close.
LMU -9 over Portland
The Portland Pilots played at St. Mary’s on Thursday night and as a 24-point dog, they were tied with the Gaels with just over 12 minutes to go in the game. Portland lost that one by just 10 points and now they’re being offered nine points against one of the worst teams in a weak conference? Interestingly enough, the favorite is coming off a game against the WCC’s other big bad dog, Gonzaga and they got steamrolled by 30 points. The underdog here almost pulled off a stunning upset over a ranked opponent while the favorite got flattened by the ranked opponent that they faced. Now one of these teams is being offered nine points and it’s not the team that got whacked. The points may appear to be appealing here but we’re strongly suggesting that they are fool’s gold.
The oddsmakers see something here that most will not and a deep look reveals that the Pilots will play their third straight on the road after playing at St. Mary’s (California) on Thursday. Portland has arguably one of the weakest offenses in the country. Every trip down is an adventure and it sure doesn’t help that its leading scorer has been out for a few games and remains out. With their leading scorer, Alec Wintering in the lineup, the Pilots ranked 310th in scoring offense, 294th in FG%, and 302nd in rebound margin. Yeah, the Pilots played the Gaels and did well but the Gaels were thinking about Gonzaga.
One of our unwritten rules is not to lay points with bad teams but there are exceptions to every rule and this is one of those times. We’re not going to try and make a case for the Lions because they are a hard sell and unappealing on their best day. However, this is not about backing the Lions. This wager is based on a situation that favors the host tremendously. There’s a thing in the market that is always at work called “recency bias”. In essence, "recency bias" means we use the most recent past to guide our choices. Thoughts and information that come to mind first are quite significant and often seen as most important. In everyday life, judgments based on recency can be an adaptive and efficient way to make choices. However, such judgments can sometimes lead us astray and that’s how we see this one. Play the chalk.
SAN DIEGO -2½ over Pepperdine
San Diego is coming off a tough road loss at Pacific Thursday night. The Toreros had a 14-point lead at one point but couldn't hold on, as the Tigers rallied for a three-point win, 61-58. USD has now lost three straight but that solid effort last time out should give them something to build on, as they return home to Jenny Craig Pavilion. Despite their recent struggles, the Toreros are doing some things right. They are the 3rd ranked team in the conference in free-throws by shooting almost 74% from the line. The Toreros also have three players that rank in the top-10 in various conference stats so there is not a lack of front line talent. Forward Brett Baily is fifth in scoring, rebounding and free throw percentage. Guard Olin Carter III is second in 3-pointers made per game and eighth in scoring. Finally, F Juwan Gray is 10th in the WCC in rebounding.
Pepperdine is coming off their biggest win of the season after wiping out BYU 99-83 as a nine-point home dog. It was a big night for the Waves, as they were featured nationally on ESPN. Pepperdine responded with their largest offensive outburst of the year and the market watched it unfold. Whether it was the bright lights or revenge on their minds (BYU beat Pepperdine by 29 just a few weeks ago in Provo), it was an inspiring performance from an eight-win team that is unlikely to be matched. That win over BYU is Pepperdine's signature win this season. It's going to be tough for them to recreate the atmosphere or bring the same intensity of that game into this one. While it's not a long trip, Pepperdine hasn't won a road game in over a year. One of the reasons for that ineptitude is that the Waves are giving up 83.4 points per game while only scoring 65.4 points per game away from Firestone Fieldhouse. Pepperdine likely had a few bettors ripping up their tickets Thursday night. On top of that, there's also a great chance that was the first time many had seen the Waves this season and it no doubt influencing. Chances are great that the market will see a completely different Waves’ team here and walk away saying, “WTF”. What a great spot to cash a ticket on the chalk.
Executive Sports
Seton Hall at St. John's
Play: Seton Hall -1
St.John's tries to get revenge against Seton Hall, but they are coming off 3 consecutive tough opponents. They've just had to play Xavier, Marquette, and Villanova. Seton hall is coming off 3 consecutive 2 point games. After losing the first one to Xavier, they beat Georgetown and Providence. In their first meeting, Seton Hall shot 52% from the field and had 45 rebounds. Not much has changed since then, so look for the same today.
Cal Sports
Clemson +11.5
Situational play with Duke getting Coach K back last Saturday, having the monster game against NC on Thursday and traveling to AP #12 Virginia on Wednesday. Clemson off one-point loss but two extra days rest having played on Tuesday. Not a play because I expect Duke to be scary good down the stretch of this season.
Mike Rose
Miami Florida at Louisville
Play: Louisville -10.5
There aren’t many teams in the conference that rebound better than the Hurricanes, but Louisville is one of the exceptions. Before falling to the Cavs, the Cards had won and covered three straight games. The Cardinals will march the nation’s #14 ranked scoring defense and #2 ranked defensive efficiency onto the court, and that’s going to give Miami’s maligned offense problems right from the opening tip. The Canes have only averaged 69.6 points in their five true ACC road games. They’ve also had issues at times holding onto the basketball, and Louisville’s pressure defense is the last unit you want to run up against with shaky ball security.
Since becoming conference rivals back in 2014, Louisville has taken two of the three overall meetings, but only covered once. Donovan Mitchell and company have almost been picture perfect at home in winning 12 of 13 and covering the closing pointspread in 10 of their 12 lined games. Miami’s only two road wins in conference have come at bottom feeders PITT and N.C. State. As dominant Louisville has been at home paired with it coming off a loss and falling in Miami last season equals a long day for the visiting Canes in my book.
Kansas at Texas Tech
Play: Texas Tech +6
Kansas has been wretched at defending the 3-ball with it ranked #274 and allowing a 36.8% success rate. Its opponents knock down an average of 7.6 per game but that number has swelled to 11.3 over its last three games. Texas Tech has made an average of 9.3 long range shots in its L/3 games, and already went off versus KU earlier this season by nailing 11 of 28 attempts. It had no problem finding room to launch, and that will likely be the case once again. Should it hit them at a higher clip, it could make this one extremely interesting.
=I was tempted to grab the double-digits with Texas Tech in the first go round, but the overtime win over West Virginia its previous game scared me away. I ended up making the right choice. However, with this game now back in the comforts of their own arena where they’ve played .933 ball, I’ll jump on the train. Especially with it coming off a gut-wrenching one-point loss to the Horny Toads. The Red Raiders have been playing some real competitive ball of late winning two of five and falling by an average of just 3.0 points per game in the other three. Kansas has been a bankroll killer all season long and could be looking ahead to Big Monday's revenge tilt with the Mountaineers. All the more reason to grab the points.
Oskeim Sports
Denver at North Dakota St
Play: North Dakota St -5
I really like North Dakota State minus the points this afternoon as the home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series, while the Pioneers are a money-burning 0-4 ATS in their last four trips to North Dakota. The Bison are 9-2 SU at home this season where they are averaging 79.5 points per game on 47.8% shooting from the field and 38.5% from beyond the arc.
The Bison also possess a solid defense that is allowing 69.3 points per game to teams that would combine to average 74.1 points per game against a mediocre defense. Finally, North Dakota State takes the floor with legitimate revenge after sustaining an embarrassing 79-55 loss at Denver on January 14.
Harry Bondi
INDIANA -6.5 over Milwaukee
Not only are the Bucks mired in a streak that has seen them go 2-12 both straight-up and against the spread, but this is also a bad technical spot for Milwaukee. This is a team that’s covered just eight of its 25 road games this season, including an 0-5 ATS mark when listed as a dog of between 6 and 9 points. The team has also struggled against opponents that score 99 points or more per game, going 2-9 ATS in their last 11 and 23-46 ATS dating back the last three seasons. Pacers run the Bucks out of the gym.
Nelly
Tennessee - over Georgia
Tennessee was fortunate to win and cover on Wednesday as they trailed almost the entire second half hosting Mississippi before they took the lead in the final three minutes finishing the game on a 15-2 run to win and improbably cover the favorite spread. A young squad for Rick Barnes showed potential early in the season with competitive losses away from home vs. Oregon, North Carolina, and Gonzaga and after a 2-4 SEC start the Volunteers are looking like the league's best candidate for a fourth NCAA Tournament team. Wins over Kentucky and Kansas State announced Tennessee's arrival in late January and though a setback last Saturday was costly the Volunteers have won four straight home games against top 100 teams. Georgia has had to play the top three SEC teams in succession the past three games and predictably the Bulldogs are in a 1-5 run now with three straight competitive losses vs. those SEC powers. This will be a third road game in the past four games for the Bulldogs and very marginal offensive shooting numbers makes Georgia tough to support as a very small underdog. Up tempo Tennessee will push the pace of this game meaning more possessions for a Georgia team that is hitting only 31 percent from 3-point range with a high turnover rate. It has been a month since Georgia won a road game and while the schedule has played a role in the decline Tennessee is playing with great energy right now and should create more opportunities with rebounding and turnover advantages.
Bruce Marshall
Miami -3.5
Maybe the '72 Dolphins still living in Miami are going to resume the tradition of breaking open the champagne bottles if raging Heat (13 SU wins and covers in a row into tonight!) come close but fall short of matching the 17-0 from '72! (Cross-sport, we know, but play along with us!) Philly still minus Joel Embiid and had lost 5 straight and 7 of 8 before Thursday's 1-point win at Orlando
Vegas Butcher
Los Angeles Clippers +3
Something is seriously wrong with the Hornets. They've lost 14 of their last 19 games, and the effort level has been really lacking. This team isn't playing with much confidence right now at all. One issue is that they don't have much quality in their front-court. With Zeller out, Kaminsky is a huge defensive liability and Plumlee is a stiff. Griffin and Jordan should dominate the paint in this one. LA hasn't played in 2 days and I like their chances in this one.
Greg Smith
Oregon at USC
Play: USC +4
The Trojans should be ready for this game as they have had this matchup circle on their calendar since late December where they were killed by the Ducks by 23 points and shot just 31% from the field. Look for USC to bring the defense and full court pressure early in this game and force Oregon into long range shots.