Free Picks for Monday, April 10th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
NETS VS. CELTICS
PLAY: NETS +10.5
Tip of the cap to the lowly Nets. This team has been out of it since opening night but their play down the stretch has been totally professional. I don’t see why they’ll suddenly take a different approach tonight as the Nets visit Boston.
The Celtics should win this game, but that’s a big spot for a team that really hasn’t done at all well when laying serious lumber. Check out the record for Boston vs. the line when they’re giving up big points. It’s not good.
I expect the Nets to keep giving it their all in these final two games, and that makes the doubles reasonably attractive here. I’ll go with Brooklyn plus the points.
Scott Rickenbach
Red Sox vs. Tigers
Play: Under 7½
Even though weather will be mild this afternoon in Detroit, the wind will still be blowing in from right field at a good clip and this match-up features a pair of aces both off of strong starts and both with good history against the teams they are facing today. Chris Sale gets the start for the Red Sox and he pitched 7 shutout innings in his season opening start. The Boston lefty has seen each of his last 3 starts result in just 2 earned runs allowed in 8 innings of work! His consistency against the Tigers is mirrored by Detroit's Justin Verlander who has had great success against Boston in recent meetings. In Verlander's last 3 starts against the Red Sox he has given up 1 earned run or less in each start and each outing he has gone 6 innings. The right-hander gave up just 2 earned runs in 6 and 1/3 innings while striking out 10 in his season opening start. Look for the under to improve to 4-1 in Boston's 5 games against right-handed starters this season. The Red Sox bullpen (1.80 ERA) has been strong this season and while the Tigers pen has had some issues, they won't be needed much here with Verlander on the mound.
Art Aronson
Indiana at Philadelphia
Play: Indiana -7½
Philadelphia was vastly improved this season than last and the only reason it did so poorly in the second half was because it was riddled with injury. The 76ers have dropped six straight, most recently falling 90-82 at home to Milwaukee on Saturday.
The Pacers have won three straight and are currently in the seventh spot in the East. Indiana must be feeling very confident tonight as it’s won seven of the last eight in this series, including a 107-94 victory in the last matchup on March 26th.
Indiana is ranked 16th in scoring with 104.9 PPG and 14th on the defensive end in allowing 105.5. Philadelphia is ranked 25th in scoring with 102.2 per contest and ranked 23rd on the defensive end in allowing 107.9.
Note that the Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four agasint the Eastern Conference, while the 76ers are interestingly just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games against a team with a losing road record.
We think that Paul George, Lance Stephenson and company will lay the hammer down from start to finish. How about you, do you think Indiana can keep the momentum rolling, or will the underdog home side score the upset and keep this one close?
Sean Murphy
Houston at Seattle
Play: Seattle -128
We backed the Mariners in this same pitching matchup last week in Houston, and ultimately fell short as the M's were defeated by a 5-3 score.
M's starter James Paxton was not really out-dueled in that contest as he tossed six shutout innings of two-hit ball. On the flip side, Morton was tagged for five hits and two earned runs, including a home run, over six innings.
The Mariners are off to a miserable start, falling again by a 10-9 score in Anaheim yesterday. They'll certainly be motivated as they play their home opener on Monday afternoon, and desperately need to give the home faithful something to cheer about.
As for the Astros, they salvaged the final game of a three-game series at home against the Royals on Sunday.
Dustin Hawkins
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh -142
The Pirates are 20-10 against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.Play against any team like the Reds that has a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season, playing a good power team - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game on the season. 144-90 over the last 5 seasons.) (61.5%).
Rob Vinciletti
New York vs. Philadelphia
Play: New York -138
The Mets have Jacob DeGrom going and they have won his last 7 starts vs the Philies. DeGrom has won 3 of 4 as a road favorite and his counterpart J.Eichoff has lost both times as a home dog vs the Mets. The Philiies have lost 28 of 41 at home vs the Mets the last few years and the Mets fit a solid database system that plays on road favorites with a total of 8 or less that are off a home win vs a team off a home dog win by 2 or more runs. These road teams win over 85% long term. The phillies took the last 2 over Washington but will have a tough time here vs DeGrom who has looked good all spring.
Power Sports
Indiana at Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia
It was once considered a mere formailty that the Sixers would finish atop the NBA's ATS standings, but injuries have taken a significant toll, leading to a pretty ugly finish. They have covered just once (as 11.5 pt dogs at Toronto) during a six-game losing streak. Six players are already done for the season, Joel Embiid being the most notable among them. But this looks to be a classic overlay tonight and I'll recommend taking the points w/ a team that has gone 25-12-1 ATS as a home dog this season.
Note that when these teams met only two weeks ago, Indiana was just a nine-point favorite - at home. Admittedly, they did cover, winning 107-94. But the combination of the Sixers' late season swoon and the Pacers needing to win to improve their playoff standing has inflated the number for tonight's rematch. Indiana has been a dreadful road team all season long (12-28 SU!), getting outscored by about six points per game. Thus, I can't ever really endorse them as road favorites, a role which has seen them go just 4-7 SU and ATS this year. They did just cover Saturday in Orlando, but I seriously doubt that we'll be seeing them shoot nearly 60% from the field again.
Similarly, Philly's shooting is likely to improve dramatically from Saturday's disastrous sub-30% effort in the second half vs. Milwaukee. The good news is that the Sixers are a perfect 3-0 ATS this season after being held to 85 pts or less in the previous game. Knowing that they are in a "must-win" situation, the pressure is on Indiana here. I think they'll struggle to win by any kind of siginificant margin here.
Marc Lawrence
Charlotte at Milwaukee
Pick: Charlotte
Edges - Hornets: 9-3 ATS in this series with revenge from a loss of 7 or more points… Bucks: 1-4 ATS last 5 overall games; and 1-4 SUATS following the 76ers… With the visiting team 11-0 ATS in this series, look for the Hornets to thwart the Bucks in their bid to overtake Atlanta for playoff positioning in the Eastern Conference playoff race. we recommend a 1* play on Charlotte.
Will Rogers
Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh
The set-up: The Cincinnati Reds have opened 4-2 with the team's pitching staff having already thrown three shutouts, after recording only eight all of last season. The Cincinnati lineup has also homered in every game this season and collected nine hits or more three times in six contests. Coming off seasons of 64 and 68 wins, the Reds' early start is encouraging. As for Pittsburgh, last year's 78-83 record ended a run of three straight wild card appearances and the Pirates have to be happy that they made it a three-game sweep at home over the Braves this past weekend, after opening 0-2 in Fenway against the Red Sox (one game was rained out).
The pitching matchup: Brandon Finnegan (1-0, 0.00 ERA) takes the mound for the Reds up against the Pirates' Tyler Glasnow (2016: 0-2 & 4.24 in 2016), as the two Central rivals open a three-game series in Pittsburgh. Finnegan had a strong 2017 debut on Wednesday against Philadelphia, allowing only one hit over seven scoreless innings with one walk and nine strikeouts. He is 2-1 with a 2.03 ERA in three career starts against teh Pirates and in two starts at PNC Park, Finnegan allowed one run on eight hits in 11 innings. Finnegan made 31 starts last season, going 10-11 overall with a 3.98 ERA (team was 12-19 and minus-$285 in all starts) but pitched well late in the season, posting a 2.23 ERA over his last 11 starts (he was 5-3 and the team 6-5). Tyler Glasnow takes the mound for Pittsburgh in his 2017 debut. He has been named the International League’s top pitching prospect twice in the past three years, but experienced a sometimes-shaky rookie season in which he made seven appearances (team was 1-3 in his four starts). He pitched for the U.S. team in the World Baseball Classic and is one of the top prospects in the majors. Despite a poor spring (allowed 12 earned runs in 17 1/3 innings), he earned the final spot in Pittsburgh’s rotation.
The pick: The Reds are off to a good start but let's not forget this team hasn't reached 70 wins in either of its last two seasons. Cincy was just 30-51 on the road in 2016 and the Pirates are coming off a three-game home sweep of the Braves, while scoring 17 runs. The Reds' pitching staff gets a real test in this one fails.
SPORTS WAGERS
Boston +102 over DETROIT
It took a while but by season's end, Justin Verlander hung some of the best numbers of his career. Some key components were working into the 6th inning in 29 of his 34 starts while perfecting his slider and dialing up his heater, which led to .100-point reduction in RHB’s BA since 2014. A full repeat would be a tall order, but he's a tall man. Give him the ball and he’ll likely pitch well but Boston is the better team with the better bullpen and at the very least, a starter here that is every bit Verlander’s equal and then some.
In a December move that ranked as the baseball equivalent of the Big Bang, Chris Sale headed to the Red Sox for four top prospects. While Sale’s presence helped make Boston a trendy World Series pick, a drop in velocity and dominance in 2016 generated some concerns but the changes appear to be due to a new approach. Yes, Sale’s velocity dropped—but that seems to have been a decision made to pitch deeper into games. He also changed his arsenal, throwing far fewer change-ups (28% in 2015, 16% in 2016), and more sliders (20% in 2015, 25% in 2016). The change resulted in decreased strikeouts but with a high swing and miss rate, there’s a great chance that his K-rate rises back to previous levels. Sale also generated fewer first pitch strikes, but with his usual stingy control, it didn’t affect his bottom line. Sales’ xERA shows that if he holds true to this new approach, his ERA probably won’t return to the 3.00 level but he did face more batters per game (28.3) in 2016, and tied his career high in wins (17). While the new Sale may or may not be as dominant as in the past, the increased run support provided by his new teammates will help. If he can win 17 for the South Side, he can win 25 for the Red Sox. Look for Sale to remain in the upper echelon of AL starters and look for us to bet him every single time he’s being offered a tag or is evely priced.
Oakland +106 over KANSAS CITY
The Royals opened the year 0-3 before winning two of three in Houston to now sit at 2-4. They’ll play their home opener here and send Ian Kennedy to the mound. Ian Kennedy is just like a scoop of vanilla ice cream: dependable (30+ starts each of the last seven years), but underwhelming (just one sub-3.50 ERA in that span) and there is very little chance we'll see a new flavor this year. Kennedy's stability and underlying skills makes him interesting when being offered a price but makes him far too risky when spotting one. Kennedy is exactly what the numbers say he is. He’s a 50/50 proposition on his best day. He walks too many guys and he has a fly-ball profile that doesn’t exactly make one feel secure. He’s average and he’s never spectacular. Pass.
Jharel Cotton is so filthy that’s it’s only a matter of time before he gets hugely noticed. Cotton gave up 11 walks in 20.2 innings this spring, but he isn’t worried. “I have only walked five guys one time in my life and that was this spring,” he smiled. “Just getting back into the swing of things, working on the pitches.” Cotton is one of those likeable guys that you just can’t help but root for. He loves the game and is constantly working on getting better. He’s highly athletic and throws one of the nastiest changeups in all of baseball, a double-plus high-70s changeup that features almost screwball-like action. He pairs it with an improving two-seam fastball that now touches 96 but works 92-93 mph and he can cut it, thus giving varying looks to a hitter who sees all his pitches come out of the same arm slot and with similar motion. There’s also a slider and curveball in here for good measure. Cotton has great potential because he keeps the ball in the park and is constantly working on improving all his pitches. He’s locked up a spot in Oakland’s rotation and has locked up a spot on our breakout target list.
Arizona +121 over SAN FRANCISCO
Matt Moore was finally healthy last season and ended up making 33 starts over 198 innings. He went 13-12 with a 4.08 ERA but his xERA was 4.47 and that’s not so good, especially when you consider the favorable pitcher parks that he made most of his starts in. He had a very good run in September but that’s not enough to get our attention when spotting a tag like this. Moore’s weak dominant start/disaster start split reveals his game-to-game volatility. Consistent control and mid-90s mph fastball are nowhere to be found. In his first start this season, Moore went 5.1 innings and was tagged for eight hits and six runs while walking two and striking out three. The Giants have two wins in their first seven games so there’s that too.
Meanwhile, the D-Backs are 6-1 and will send Taijuan Walker to the hill to make his second start of the year. In his first start, Walker struck out seven and walked one over six full innings but he also gave up four runs so his ERA looks like 6.00 after that one start. That provides us with this outstanding buy opportunity. Walker’s swing and miss rate in his first start was an elite 15%. Pitching for the Mariners last year, he went 8-11 with a 4.22 ERA in 134 innings. Flat feet apparently caused foot and ankle issues that led to flat skills in the second half but his first half was a strong continuation of his 2015 growth. Yet to post full season of an ERA under 4.00, Walker's xERA of 3.28 says it's there for the taking if hr/f ever falls in line. He's on the precipice of bigger and better things and we’re not going to sit back and hope it happens. Walker is a guy to get behind almost every time he’s being offered a price.
San Diego -1½ +275 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 11 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park and so we are going to start this routine here.
Note: BET365 had a line up on this one at the time of this writing while the other shops did not. However, they will ALL have a line up today at some point and we'll update th9is when they do. We're sure to get a better number at Pinnacle so we'll wait for that line before pulling the trigger.
Jimmy Boyd
Indiana at Philadelphia
Play: Indiana -8
I got no problem laying this big number on the road with the Pacers in this spot. Just two games left in the regular-season for both teams. On one side you have Indiana, who is currently tied with the Bulls for the 7th and 8th spots, but just 1-game ahead of Miami. The Pacers can clinch a playoff spot with a win or Bulls or Heat loss. Needless to say Indiana is going to be 100% locked for this contest. I also really like the way this team has been playing since they acquired Lance Stephenson.
As for the 76ers, they have recently thrown in the towel on this season. Philadelphia simply has too many of their top players sidelined with injuries to be competitive. They come in having lost 6 straight and each of the last 5 have all been by at least 8 points.
It's also worth pointing out that these two teams recently played on 3/26, which Indiana won going away 107-94. The Pacers aren't great on the road, but the 76ers are a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing road record. Pacers are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against a team with a winning percentage below 40%
Brad Wilton
Monday's comp play release is the Brooklyn Nets plus the points in Boston tonight as they face the Celtics.
Brooklyn is easily playing their best basketball of the season as they wind down a playoff-less campaign. The Nets come into Beantown with straight up victories in 4 of their last 5 games, and they have covered 5 of their last 6 games, and 10 of their last 14 games overall.
Boston is playoff-bound, but Brad Stevens' team has looked shaky for a while now, as they blew a 17-point halftime lead at Charlotte their last time out before rallying back for the 4th quarter win and cover.
Overall the Celtics are just 1-6 against the spread their last 7 when listed as the favorite, and Boston has failed in 4 of the last 6 series meetings against Brooklyn - all of them coming as the favorite!
Boston gets the straight up win, but have to side with Brooklyn for the against the spread cover.
Take the points.
3* BROOKLYN
Wunderdog
Utah @ Golden State
Pick: Golden St -10
Utah took a blow in their last game in their quest to gain home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs as they dropped a game at Portland. Golden State is riding a big wave of momentum right now as they have rattled off 14 straight wins. The Jazz are a good defensive team, but it takes some offense to hang with the Warriors, and they have not been able to stay in games here. Since the start of the 2013 season, the Jazz have made seven trips here, and they have lost by an average of just shy of 20 points per game. They have come no closer than 13 in any of the seven, leading to six straight covers by the Warriors. There is a lot of distance between these teams.
Larry Ness
Brooklyn vs. Boston
Pick: Boston -10.5
The Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers are each 51-29 with three days left in the regular season. Each team plays tonight and Wednesday. The Celtics are home to the Nets (tonight) and Bucks (Weds), while t Cheavs are in Miami tonight and then finish at home against the Raptors on Wednesday.
The situation is fairly simple. The Cavs own the tiebreaker (win season series 3-1), so the Celtics need to finsise game better than the Cavs. The best chance of that happening would be two Boston wins and one Cleveland.loss. It's not a stretch to say the Cavs' most vulnerable game will be tonight in Miami, as Toronto would seemingly have little motivation to win Wednesday's finale if it meant a possible second-round matchup with the Cavaliers.
Boston can't control what the Cavs do, so winning tonight and on Wednesday is a must. The Nets visit the TD Garden tonight and while 20-60 Brooklyn has clinched the NBA's worst record, the Nets have been a different team since PG Jeremy Lin has returned to the court after the All Sta break. His hamstring issues are behind him (he's averaging 18.8 points while shooting 11-for-19 from three-point range over the last four games) and the Nets are 11-11 since March 1, after going 9-49 through February 28th.
The Celtics bounced back from losses to the Cavs and Hawks with a win at Charlotte on Saturday night. They actually blew a 19-point lead but after falling behind by seven, they rallied to win 121-114. Yes, the Nets are plang much better but Brooklyn is a poor defensive team (112.5 PPG ranks 29th) and Boston should win comfortably here and then turn its attention to the "out of town scoreboard," to see how the Cavs fared in Miami.