DAVE COKIN
ORIOLES AT RED SOX
PLAY: UNDER 8.5
David Price makes his eagerly anticipated home debut for the Red Sox today with the undefeated Baltimore Orioles providing the opposition. Yovani Gallardo will try to build on a decent first start for the Birds.
Fenway can be hell on lefties with the Green Monster looming, and the list of southpaws psyched out by that wall is endless. But Price has flourished in his past dealings at this park, and I think he’s going to be a guy who feeds off the adrenaline that’s always present at this ballpark. Price was very strong in his first game in a Boston uniform and figures to do well today. I also thought John Farrell made a terrific decision to sit Price on Sunday and give him an extra day off to work the home opener. Let’s face it. while the Orioles lineup is hardly a walk in the park, skipping Price against a Toronto team that annihilates lefties on a regular basis was probably pretty smart.
If you watched Yovani Gallardo’s first couple of spring outings, playing an Under with him on the mound might seem utterly stupid. Gallardo was terrible early on. But he finally got it together in his final spring ball start and then had an okay outing in his first official start for Baltimore. Gallardo is no longer a top of the rotation pitcher. He’s now a pitch to contact type and commanding his stuff is mandatory, as he cannot beat big league hitters with his pure stuff anymore.
The Red Sox offense was the nuts for their first four games, but they did get shut down on Sunday. I would not expect Gallardo to dominate them here, but I’m hopeful the veteran righty can get me a quality start. If so, I’ll be more than happy to rely on Price and the late inning Boston bullpen to contain the Orioles.
Two good offenses here, but I’m banking on Price to pitch well, while Gallardo avoids getting blown up. That being the case and with the opportunity to get this one at even money, I’ll go with the Orioles and Red Sox to stay Under the posted number.
Sleepyj
Marlins / Mets Over 7
The Mets will send out Matz tonight and I'm a little worried he will give up a few runs here...Matz is solid when it comes to striking out his batters, but he also struggles at times with control and having a bad inning..I've watched him a few times get in his head an unravel during a pressure situation...I expect that here against a pretty good Marlins lineup..Plenty of power on both teams, but I think the Marlins go yard once or twice here..On the flip side Cosart get the nod for the Marlins..He hasn't impressed me much and the Mets have struggled a bit hitting the last few games...I expect the Mets to bounce back here at home and look to attack Cosart..Mets have plenty of power as well and I think it's going to be hard for either pitcher to have a real solid outing..One or the other gives up 3 runs and the other could give up 5 or 6...This total looks a bit low and this one is heading to 7.5...Grab the 7 over for this game.
Mike Lundin
Brewers vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -164
The St. Louis Cardinals are coming off a three-game sweep of the Braves and I like them here in the opener of a three-game set against Milwaukee.
The Brewers will send Taylor Jungmann (0-0, 1.80 ERA) to the mound and the 26-year-old might be coming off a solid home-outing against San Francisco, but he struggled on the road as a rookie last season going 4-6 with a 5.02 ERA in 12 starts.
The Cardinals will turn to Michael Wacha (0-0, 8.31) who'll be desperate to bounce back from an atrocious season-debut when he conceded five runs, four earned, on 10 hits in 4 1/3 frames against the Pirates. He was 7-3 behind a 3.18 ERA home at Busch last season and I expect nothing less from the right-hander this year.
Wacha is 2-0 in four career appearances against Milwaukee despite a 5.87 ERA, and he can most likely expect plenty of run-support today as well from teammates that have totaled 31 runs over the past three games.
Will Rogers
Orioles vs. Red Sox
Play: Over 8½
The 5-0 Baltimore Orioles will be an underdog in Boston today, facing Red Sox ace David Price. The Orioles have gotten to Price in the past, and the way they are swinging the bats, I wouldn't be surprised to see Boston's ace struggle here at Fenway. My money is on the over.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - This will be the first time David Price starts at Fenway as a member of the Red Sox, but he pitched well at Boston last year with the Blue Jays. Price is normally a slow starter though, and is just 5-5 with a 4.70 ERA in April over the last three seasons.
2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Matt Weiters is hitting .341 with a home run and six doubles in 44 career at bats versus Price. The lineup as a whole is batting .280 over a combined 236 at bats versus Price.
3. X-Factor - The over is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Martin Griffiths
Bologna vs. Roma
Play: Roma -1½
A match of critical importance to Roma, win and they will have taken a massive step towards champions league qualification, a loss would not be disastrous, they would still be five points ahead of Inter with just six games to go, but they know that to be eight points ahead with just six games to go makes it very very likely that they will be playing champions league football next season.
To some degree the same applies to Bologna, they are already eight points above the relegation zone and a win or draw would make it very likely they will be playing Serie A football next season, while a loss would not be the end of the world.
But the fact that Roma are fighting for a champions league place and Bologna fighting to avoid relegation tells you all you need to know about their respective seasons.
Roma won the Rome derby 4-1 last week and will come into this game with momentum and that all important feel good factor, they have won 9 of their last 10 Serie A games and have lost just the once all season at home, this is a team truly in form.
Bologna are ok away from home, but that is all, nothing special losing 8 from 15 or put another way, not losing 7 from 15, however, their recent form is horrendous, they have lost the last 3 on the bounce and won just once in their last 9 Serie A games, clearly not a team in form.
Normally I would oppose Roma on the spreads because at 1.5 goals it is high, however the circumstances of this game, the respective form of both teams and what is at stake means that the value is taking Roma -1.5 goals.
Put it this way, I fully expect Roma to win this game, but do I expect them to win it just or comfortably, well, I expect them to win it comfortably and that is why I am backing them to cover the spread.
Larry Ness
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
Texas set a MLB record for number of players used in 2014 en route to a last-place finish in the AL West. The club then had to overcome the loss of No. 1 starter Yu Darvish and more than 1,400 player games to the DL last year, yet was able to win the AL West. So it was déjà vu all over again on Sunday when Texas announced RF Shin-Soo Choo will miss at least four weeks due to a strained calf and C Robinson Chirinos will be out at least 10 weeks because of a broken forearm. The Rangers have opened 3-4 and will (unfortunately) get their second look at Hisashi Iwakuma over the past seven days when they open a three-game series Monday night in Seattle with the Mariners.
Iwakuma (0-0, 3.60 ERA) allowed two runs over five innings but failed to earn a win in last Tuesday's 10-2 Seattle victory victory at Globe Life Park. He's been outstanding against the Rangers in his career, going 6-0 with a 2.87 ERA over his last eight starts and 8-1 with a 3.00 mark in the past 12. Iwakuma is 8-3 with a 3.43 ERA in 15 career appearances (14 starts) vs Texas (Seattle is 10-4 in his starts). Texas counters with right-hander Colby Lewis(0-0, 4.50 ERA), who is 1-4 with a 5.00 ERA while allowing 10 HRs in his last seven starts vs Seattle (he’s 7-8 when starting against the Mariners with a 3.77 ERA / team record is 10-11). He received a no-decision after allowing three runs over six innings in last Wednesday's 9-5 loss to the Mariners.
Seattle was just swept at home in a three-game series by Oakland this past weekend and is seeking its first home win of the season here.
Power Sports
Washington vs. Brooklyn
Pick: Brooklyn
As 5.5-pt home dogs, Washington pulled off an upset on Sunday, beating Charlotte 113-98. That was a tremendous blow to the Hornets' pursuit of homecourt advantage, but also remember that the Wizards' own playoff hopes remain non-existent. IMO, that makes them ripe to be upset Monday on the road. Take the points here.
Let's start w/ the fact that neither Bradley Beal nor John Wall may play tonight. Beal left yday's game after just eight minutes w/ a sore pelvis and Wall sat out entirely for a third straight game. While the team still went on to shoot 52.5% from the floor w/ a 50-22 edge in points in the paint, you probably don't need to be on the Wiz's "daily beat" to understand what missing the starting backcourt means. With or without Beal and/or Wall, I find it difficult to believe the team will shoot the ball as well tonight. Also, it's a big difference being on the road where the Wiz are giving up 105.5 PPG and have a -3.8 per game point differential.
Now, the Nets are hardly the ideal team to endorse right now as they've lost eight in a row, including an ugly 24-point setback on Sunday in Indiana (trailed by as many as 42!). But you have to assume that these are professionals who don't want to end the season on a long losing streak. They have only two games left & this is a revenge spot for an 18-point loss suffered in D.C. last week. At some point, pride needs to kick in and I'll point to the fact that Brooklyn is far more respectable at home, including a 10-8 ATS record when taking between 3.5 and 6 points. Because of Sunday's results, this line looks to be a bit inflated and my recommendation is to back the home underdog.
Frank Jordan
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers -130
Detroit is 3-1 on the year and with poor weather in the forecast on Sunday night they caught a break not having to play the late ESPN game and have a quick turnaround to this afternoon showdown with Pittsburgh. The Pirates are 4-2 on the year and after a 4-0 start have dropped their last two games and are 1-2 on the road on the season getting out scored 7-2 in their last two games to the Reds. The pitching match up is a dandy as Niese is going for the Pirates and Verlander for the Tigers. Both pitchers have no record and ERAs of 4.50 or higher, but it is early in the season and the wins will come and ERAs will lower. Niese is making his first start in Detroit and being a National League pitcher his entire career he has only faced the Tigers once and didn't make it out of the 5th inning allowing six runs, but his offense picked him up as he didn't take a loss. Verlander has faced Pittsburgh six times in his career and has had much success sporting a 4-1 record and an even three ERA. Look for both pitchers to be sharp and go at least six innings, but it will be Verlander who will show some of that old magic and domination over the Pirates to lead the Tigers to a 3-2 victory as the Tigers score late off the Pirates pen.
Marc Lawrence
Houston at Minnesota
Pick: Houston
Edges - Rockets: 8-3 ATS in this series when Minnesota is off a SU underdog win, including 4-0 ATS when Wolves are off BB wins. Timberwolves: 2-19 SU and 6-15 ATS in games off BB SU underdog wins, including 1-9 SUATS at home. With Minnesota in off three consecutive upsets wins over Portland, Sacramento and Golden State, we recommend a 1* play on Houston.
Jim Feist
Sacramento at Phoenix
Pick: Phoenix
Nothing at stake here for either of these clubs, as both just playing out the final few games of the season. The Kings are coming off a home win over Oklahoma City, 114-112. The Kings are 3-4 S/U their last seven. They are 1-2 ATS the last three, but 7-2 ATS the last nine. Meanwhile, the Suns have won two straight with road wins at Houston and New Orleans. The Suns have also covered three straight and six of the last eight. Phoenix has covered one of the three vs Sacramento this season. However, that one cover was at home in a 118-99 win. Phoenix would like to finish on a positive note.
Chris Jordan
I'm heading to Beantown for the matinee clash with the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles.
And the Crimson Hose are going to win big today, which is why I have on problem laying the run line.
Now, I'm rolling with the Sox against the O's mainly because Baltimore has won five straight games. See, in the first half of the season you don't see that many teams riding win streaks past five games. I've always been of the belief that any team on the road, and on a five-, six- or seven-game win streak is a go-against.
And if you lose the first day on that wager, double-up and go against the team through the seven-game streak. Remember, only on the road.
That being said, it doesn't hurt having David Price to the mound today for Boston's first home game of the 2016 season against the unbeaten Orioles.
After all, Price has been brilliant at the majors' oldest ballpark, going 6-1 with a 1.95 ERA in 11 career regular-season starts there. He beat Cleveland 6-2 in his Red Sox debut Tuesday after giving up two runs and striking out 10 through six innings.
He's been sidelined because of a couple of rainouts, so it is also important to note the left-hander is 13-5 with a 3.19 ERA in 25 career starts with at least six days between outings.
This is also David Ortiz's final home opener, as he is set to retire at the end of the season.
I like Boston in this early start, to win big over the Orioles.
4* RED SOX -1.5
Teddy Davis
Rockets vs. Wolves
Play: Rockets -3
I believe he T Wolves are in the ultimate let down spot here. They return home from a 3 game west coast trip winning all 3 including a huge win @ Golden St. While I realize the Rockets played last night they have no choice but to win out to try and snag the 8th spot for the playoffs. I see the Rockets really stepping it up here tonight as the T Wolves couldn't be more over valued right now. T Wolves are 15-35-1 ATS L51 home games vs team with a losing road record.
Stephen Nover
Lakers vs. Thunder
Play: Over 215
It will be a celebration of Kobe Bryant's last road game as the Thunder host the Lakers today. The important thing we need to take from that is the over has cashed 16 of 22 times for 73 percent in Bryant's final visit to opposing arenas. The over is 18-7-1 (72 percent) in the Lakers' last 26 away contests.
The Lakers' young players haven't learned to play defense and Bryant just fires up shots. The end result is the Lakers' rank second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage. They've surrendered triple digits in 10 of their past 11 games. During their past two games - both on the road - LA gave up 110 points to the decimated Pelicans and 130 points to the Rockets.
LA's defensive shortcomings really are apparent on the road. The over has cashed in eight of the Lakers' past 10 road matchups. During this road span - in addition to giving up an average of 120 points to the Pelicans and Rockets - the Lakers yielded 123 points to the Jazz, 119 to the Suns, 128 to the Grizzlies, 126 to the Bulls and 117 to the Nuggets. Those teams all rank among the bottom-12 in scoring.
Oklahoma City ranks No. 2 in scoring at 110.4 points a game. The Thunder averaged 118.3 points in three games versus the Lakers this season. The Lakers are allowing an average of 118.4 points during their last 10 road games. The two teams have gone over in eight of their past 11 meetings and have gone above the total during six of their past seven games in Oklahoma City.
The big question is how will Thunder coach Billy Donovan approach this game having already captured the Northwest Division title and No. 3 seed in the West? Oklahoma City closes out its regular season at San Antonio on Tuesday. I say that will be the game Donovan chooses to rest his starters. The Thunder very well could meet the Spurs in the second round of the playoffs so there's no point in showing anything, or giving the Spurs additional incentive.
The Thunder also are off an upset road loss to the Kings in their last game this past Saturday. That was the Thunder's fourth loss in six games. They don't want to enter the postseason on such a low note especially with a road game against the Spurs looming on Tuesday.
Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are chasing down records, too. Durant, who says Bryant was his idol, would love to have a big game. If he scores at least 20 points, he passes Bryant for the longest streak of scoring 20 or more points since 2005-06 and would be one 20-point game away from matching Michael Jordan's string of 69 from 1990-91. Westbrook is one triple-double away from breaking Magic Johnson's mark of 17, which would be the most in a season since 1985-86.
Properly motivated, those two superstars should light up the Lakers.
Jack Jones
St. Louis Cardinals -159
The St. Louis Cardinals are back on track after sweeping the Atlanta Braves last series on the road. Not only did they sweep them, they dominated them by outscoring the Braves 31-13 over the three games. Now they'll be excited for their home opener today against Milwaukee.
Michael Wacha takes the ball looking to continue his brilliant start to his career. He has gone 26-14 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.203 WHIP in four years in the big leagues. Wacha is 1-0 with a 4.40 ERA in three career starts against Milwaukee.
Taylor Jungmann is 9-8 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.271 WHIP over his two years in the big leagues. He got blown up in his only start against St. Louis last season. Jungmann gave up six earned runs and two homers in 5 innings of a 3-7 loss to the Cardinals in St. Louis in September.
St. Louis is 13-2 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in home games after three or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons. The Brewers are 0-7 in Jungmann's last seven road starts. St. Louis is 81-34 in its last 115 home games. The Cardinals are 20-7 in Wacha's last 27 home starts. St. Louis is 27-7 (+15.7 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -200 over the last two seasons.
Jimmy Boyd
Phoenix Suns -6
Both teams are headed for lottery picks and have little to play for down the stretch. However, I believe the Suns are going to have a huge motivational edge in this one, as this is a pretty big letdown spot for the Kings.
Sacramento just played their final home game of the season, which they won 114-112 over the Thunder. It wasn't just the final game of this season, but the last one ever at Sleep Train Arena. You could see how much winning that game meant to the players. I just don't see them caring at all about the outcome here against the Suns and that's evident by the fact that Cousins isn't expected to play.
Sacramento is just 13-26 ATS in their last 39 after playing a game as a home do, 14-28 ATS in their last 42 off an upset win as an underdog and 7-19 ATS in their last 26 against a team with a winning percentage of 40% or worse.