Chase Diamond
Brewers vs. Cardinals
Play: Brewers +153
This game we have the 3-3 Brewers at the 3-3 Cardinals. Taylor Jungmann pitched lights out in game one only giving up one run and today he faces off with Michael Wacha who was knocked around by the Pirates. Huge Value on the side of the Brewers as I think Wacha is over rated and so are the Cardinals.
Dave Price
Oakland A's -137
This is a very reasonable price to get ace Sonny Gray at home for the Oakland A's, who are coming off a 3-game sweep of the Seattle Mariners. All Gray has done is dominate since he came up to the big leagues. He is 34-20 with a 2.86 ERA in his career after going 14-7 with a 2.73 ERA in 31 starts last season. Gray has had plenty of success against the Angels, too, going 5-2 with a 3.28 ERA in 10 lifetime starts. Nick Tropeano is 4-5 with a 4.10 ERA in 11 starts in his brief big league career. The Angels are 1-12 (-10.6 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +150 over the last 2 seasons.
Wunderdog
Atlanta @ Washington
Pick: Under 8
Washington is a big park, great for pitchers. That's good for new Atlanta starter Bud Norris (0-1, 3.86 ERA), who threw 59 of his 98 pitches for strikes in his first start, walking two and striking out four. But that's bad news for the dismal Atlanta offense, #26 in runs scored and #28 in slugging. The Braves are 6-2-2 UNDER the total against a right-handed starter and face one of the best in Nationals ace Max Scherzer (2.57 ERA). He beat these Braves in his first start, 4-3, allowing three hits and fanning seven. In his last 15 innings against Atlanta, Scherzer has allowed eight hits, two walks, with 16 strikeouts. The Nationals don't have their offense clicking yet, #27 in runs scored and #20 in slugging. Washington is on a 9-1-1 run UNDER the total, plus 8-1-1 UNDER against the NL East.
GoodFella
Phillies -130 1st Half
I will take the piss poor Phillies bullpen out of the equation here and play the Phillies 1st 5 innings only. Philly SP Aaron Nola is a very good young SP who has great stuff. Most folks are not aware of him yet & of course the average person "knows the name" Cashner for San Diego. For me, there is definite value on these Phillies for the 1st 5 innings. I really expect Nola to limit the Padres through 5 innings this afternoon & do think they get to a regressing Cashner. I'm on the PHILLIES 1st 5 Innings on Monday afternoon.
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 43-25 run with complimentary plays: Chicago at MINNESOTA (-115)
The STORYLINE in this game today - Rule of thumb when betting baseball in the first half of the season, look for specific streaks. I'm not revealing some of those secrets, but what I can tell you is that I'll take a team on a five-game losing streak at home, before I will a team on a five-game win streak on the road.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Now I'm not listing the pitchers because I don't believe in jinxing it when I think a team can win no matter who is going, but a key factor is Minnesota starter Kyle Gibson. See, Chicago hasn't had much success against Gibson, as the right-hander is 4-0 with a 2.13 ERA in six career starts against the White Sox. Gibson is in after laboring through five innings last Wednesday, when he gave up four runs while walking five and throwing 105 pitches in a 4-2 loss to Baltimore. Look for Minny to get its first win.
BOTTOM LINE is - Minnesota come into this series mired in a six-game slide after being swept in Baltimore and Kansas City to start the season. The Twins scored 12 total runs - six in each series - in what turned out be very tight losses, and truth be told, was marred by the Twins lack of hitting in key moments. This team is due for a win.
4* TWINS
Scott Delaney
My free play is on the Oakland Athletics, laying the run line against the Angels of Anaheim.
If there were ever a trap - it's this game. But if I'm falling for it, so be it. The A's look like the right side, but could very well be a trap since the Halos have played well against Oakland's Sonny Gray.
Gray, who went 14-7 with a 2.73 ERA en route to finishing third in the AL Cy Young Award voting last season, is 4-1 with a 2.57 ERA in his last eight home starts. And check it, his only loss was a 9-4 loss to the Angels in September. Since going 5-1 with a 2.18 ERA in his first eight starts versus the boys from Anaheim, he's surrendered 12 runs over 11 innings in the last two.
But as I said, I'm not worried about the pitchers of record, as A's are looking to win a fourth straight. Since Oakland dropped 11 of 19 meetings last season, including five of nine at home, I think it'll be on a mission in this one.
3* ATHLETICS -1.5
Brad Wilton
Monday comp play is the Timberwolves as the home dog against the Rockets.
Houston still has postseason hopes, but they are messing with the wrong team tonight.
First of all, the Rockets have dropped 5 of their last 6 games away from home, and they are catching Minny playing their best basketball of the season.
The Timberwolves have won and covered 3 in a row, including road wins at playoff-bound Portland, and # 1 seed Golden State.
Minnesota has lost the last 6 in this series, but the Wolves have covered in each of the last 3 meetings, and in 4 of the last 5 overall.
Let's take the T-Wolves plus the points to play spoiler once again.
1* MINNESOTA
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the Kings and Suns to put a bunch of points on the scoreboard, as Sacramento and Phoenix head Over the total tonight.
Sacramento has played Over the total in 5 of their last 8 games heading into this road game, while Phoenix has seen the Over cash in their last pair of games.
The last series meeting on March 25th did hold Under the total, but the Over has cashed in 2 of the 3 overall meetings this year. The Over is also 5-1 the past 6 series meetings in Arizona, and is on a 9-4-1 Overall Over run the past 14 times these Western rivals have met.
Neither team has playoff implications on the line, so look for this game to be played pretty loosely on the defensive side of things, and for the points to add up.
Kings-Suns Over the total.
3* SACRAMENTO-PHOENIX OVER
Bruce Marshall
Bucks / Magic Over 210.5
Home edge has held up in first three meetings, with host winning and covering each, including Bucks' recent narrow 3-point win at BMO Harris Bradley Center on April Fools' night. But if that trend endures into tonight, it's advantage Orlando, which rolled by 24 the last time Milwaukee invaded Amway Center back on Nov. 27, when Magic hit 52.4% from floor and G Elfrid Payton was the star of the night with 22 points. Recent encouraging news for the Bucks was three straight 20-point games from Jabari Parker for the first time in his career, as foes having a slow time adjusting to his hide-on-the-baseline stuff and resultant dunks. But would rather back Magic, tallying 115 ppg its last eight, and "over" five in a row.
Rob Vinciletti
Mavericks vs. Jazz
Play: Jazz -6½
What we are doing here is playing on teams in their last home game vs an opponent with no rest like Dallas that played on the road last night. The Jazz are 7-1 ats at home with no rest off a road game. All team playing in Utah with no rest that were on the road last night are 0-7 straight up and failed to cover the last 4 times. Dallas has been hit of late but this is a tough spot after playing In LA last night. Look for the Jazz to get this one.
Brandon Lee
White Sox -109
Chris Sale gets a lot of attention as the ace of the White Sox, which has consistently had Jose Quintana flying under the radar. Quintana was sharp in his first outing of the season, allowing just 2 runs with 7 strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings of work. He now faces a Twins offense that has failed to score more than 3 runs in a single game all season. Minnesota also send out Kyle Gibson, who was roughed up in his first start, allowing 4 runs on 7 hits and 5 walks in just 5 innings of work.
Cajun Sports
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Orlando Magic -4
The Orlando Magic looks to avoid another loss in their home finale which has been the case in each of the last three seasons. The good news for the Magic they have managed to win eighteen of their last nineteen home games versus the Bucks. Orlando has also won seven of their last ten at Amway Arena. NBA teams coming off a straight up loss and now play at home are 12-1 ATS the last thirteen. The Magic happen to be perfect in this situation posting a 9-0 ATS record. The Magic coming off a road game in which they allowed their opponent to shoot forty-eight percent or better and they are not installed as eleven or more point favorites they have gone 66-41 ATS for sixty-one percent winners against the spread. We want to play ON NBA home teams revenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points and their opponent is coming in off a road game. These avenging home teams are 52-31 ATS for almost sixty-three percent winners against the number.
SPORTS WAGERS
MINNESOTA (5 innings) +104
Despite being 4-2 and playing a team that hasn’t won a game yet, we’re not sure the South Side warrants being the chalk here. Minnesota is always wretched on the road but once they get inside Target Field a metamorphosis occurs. The Twinkies will open at home today with Kyle Gibson going. Gibson has been a slow work in progress but this could finally be the year that this former first round pick puts it all together. Last season, Gibson gave the Twins plenty of what you hope to see from a young pitcher, which was cultivating swing-and-miss skills to augment his strong groundball profile (61%). Gibson’s swing and miss rate rose monthly as his slider and changeup produced more whiffs as the second half progressed. Gibson’s strikeout rate is still only "acceptable", but if he can pair it with his second half command, we could be looking at a 15-win pitcher with an ERA in the 3.50 range. Uncharacteristically, Gibson walked five batters in his season debut in Baltimore and it cost him dearly. He figures to be much better today. Gibson also has an outstanding history against current White Sox hitters with a BAA of just .143 in 91 career AB’s.
Carlos Quintana’s first half issues from last year were tied to struggles v righties and his team’s woes. But Quintana’s across-the-board second half upticks resulted in another quietly solid season from a pitcher with less-than-ideal team/venue support. This strike-thrower won’t wow you with mph or swing and miss stuff but his skills trend speaks for itself. At the end of the day, Quintana is a mid-rotation starter that offers up great value as a dog but as the chalk on the road pitching for the South Side, we say no thank you. The Twinkies pen has blown four leads in their six losses so we'll eliminate that bunch and play this one in five innings.
Milwaukee (5 innings) +153
The Cardinals lost their first three games of the year in Pittsburgh before sweeping the Braves in Atlanta this past weekend but pretty it was not. St. Louis has been behind in five of their six games in the fifth inning or later. Most of their runs scored in Atlanta this weekend came off of Atlanta’s dumpster fire bullpen. The Cards are playing sloppy defensively and while they figure to clean it up at some point, they are not looking very sharp at the moment. Michael Wacha was torched in his first start in Pittsburgh by allowing several hard hit balls and not making it past the fourth inning. Wacha was tagged for 10 hits, five runs and a 2.54 WHIP in those four innings and his swing and miss rate was a lousy 6%. While we can never put too much weight on a guy’s first start of the year, Wacha’s entire profile from the past two seasons comes with plenty of risk. In no way can we refuse this price against Wacha right now.
Taylor Jungmann brings just as much risk as Wacha but the difference is that Jungmann and the Crew are not laying -160 or thereabouts. Jungmann went 9-8 last season with a 3.77 ERA in 119 innings with a xERA of 3.93. This former 1st-rounder took small steps forward in his MLB debut with a heavy groundball lean that continued in his first start at home versus the Giants. In that game, Jungmann’s groundball rate was 71% and he only allowed three hits and one earned run in five frames. Again, we can’t put too much emphasis on one start by each pitcher but we can put emphasis on value. In that regard, the value here is all on the Brewers and because poor bullpens blow games, we’ll continue to attack many of these games in the first five innings.
HOUSTON/Kansas City Over 8½
Collin McHugh only got one out in Wednesday's start against the Yankees, giving up six runs (five earned) on three hits and two walks in the process. After a catcher's interference call put Jacoby Ellsbury on to start the game, McHugh completely imploded, loading the game with consecutive walks, then giving up two hits before getting his lone out on an RBI grounder by Carlos Beltran. McHugh’s first start of the season could hardly have gone worse but perhaps we’re seeing an early season trend here. Last year from April to the end of May, McHugh put up a 5.45 ERA before a decent second half in which he posted a 3.09 ERA. He'll have better days than his first start but he’s a pitcher that emerged out of nowhere two years ago so maybe his story is about to end badly. Regardless, the Royals can put up runs on anyone and now McHugh might be fragile.
The Astros figure to score too. Enter Chris Young. Yes indeed, Chris Young has outpitched his ERA in the past. Yes, he keeps racking up double-digit wins. Yes, he helped a World Series run. Still, he's 37 years-old and his career-low hit rate from last year won't last and his brutal xERA history gives an idea of what will happen if (when) the planets realign. Young gives up a ton of fly-balls with a 12-year career groundball/fly-ball rate of 25%/55%. In his first start this year, he was out it again with a GB/FB rate of 21%/64%. Pitching half his games in Seattle and Kansas City has helped to keep the ball in the park but Minute Maid is not as forgiving. Young’s overall metrics paints the picture of a skill set best avoided. After some fortunate seasons, all signs point to Young’s ERA going through the roof. At 37 years old and with years of pure luck (.209 BABIP last year, which is nuts), Young’s implosion is inevitable. Young is not a strikeout pitcher and when the Astros aren’t striking out, they are usually going deep.
Rocketman Sports
Sacramento Kings vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: Phoenix Suns -6
The Sacramento Kings travel to Phoenix to take on the Suns on Monday night. Sacramento is 32-48 SU overall this year while Phoenix comes in with a 22-58 SU overall record on the season. Sacramento is 14-28 ATS last 3 years after an upset win as an underdog. Sacramento is allowing 109.1 points per game overall this year, 109.5 points per game on the road this season, 110 points per game their past 5 games overall and 111.3 points per game against division opponents this season. Phoenix is scoring 100.7 points per game overall this year, 102.9 points per game at home this season, 104 points per game their past 5 games overall and 105.6 points per game against division opponents this season. We'll recommend a small play on Phoenix tonight!
Scott Rickenbach
Angels at Athletics
Prediction: Under
Both of these clubs are struggling to score runs early this season and I don't see that getting any better tonight. The A's have averaged just 3 runs per game this season as they are only hitting .221 so far on the year. As bad as those numbers are the Angels are doing even worse! LAA has averaged just 2 runs per game so far this season and they have been held to a .200 batting average thusfar. Sonny Gray gets the start for Oakland tonight and he is 5-2 with a 3.28 ERA in his career against the Angels. His first start this season saw him dominate the White Sox last week. Nick Tropeano gets the start for the A's tonight. It his first start this season but he dominated the A's last season with a 2-0 mark and a 0.71 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP. Simply phenomenal numbers as he struck out 16 in less than 13 innings of work. These teams have a history of overs when they square off but the way they are going early this season (a combined 9-3 to the under) I just see another low-scoring game on tap here especially with this pitching match-up. By the way, the bullpens for these clubs have been solid early this season as well.