Free Picks for Monday, April 17th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Scott Rickenbach
Tampa Bay at Boston
Play: Boston -132
With Steven Wright off of a horrific start it may seem tough to back the Red Sox here. However, especially with the big downward line move making Boston a small home favorite in this one, there is exceptional line value being offered. Wright is likely to bounce back as his awful start versus Baltimore last week was highly unusual. Also, the Rays Blake Snell has been struggling with his command early this season and has more walks than strikeouts. His struggles often make it tough to pitch deep into games and that is also a significant factor here because the Rays bullpen is 2-4 with a 4.57 ERA so far this season while the Red Sox pen is 4-1 with a 1.98 ERA so far this season. Yesterday's 7-5 BoSox win sent the Rays to their 5th loss in 6 road games and this early game Monday will wrap up the 7-game road trip. The Red Sox are a solid 6-2 at home and I'll grab the value with the stronger hitting team, better bullpen, and with a knuckle-baller likely to bounce back from a rare horrendous outing.
Jim Feist
Senators vs. Bruins
Play: Over 5
Ottawa's Dan Phaneuf set up two goals before scoring at 1:59 of overtime and the Ottawa Senators rallied past the Boston Bruins 4-3 on Saturday. Boston is #13 in the NHL in goals scored, #7 on the power play. And the Over is 5-2-4 in the last 11 meetings in Boston.
Marc Lawrence
White Sox vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -144
Edges - Yankees: 13-2 last fifteen home games in this series… White Sox: Holland 5.75 ERA with 8 K’s and 10 BB’s this spring. With Holland just 3-6 in his MLB career team starts against the Pinstripes, we recommend a 1* play on the NY Yankees.
Dustin Hawkins
Tampa Bay at Boston
Play: Boston -145
Tampa Bay is 4-18 against the money line in road games vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 2.70 or better over the last 3 seasons. The Ray,s are also only 21-40 against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons.
Info Plays
Marlins vs. Mariners
Play: Over 8
Here are some systems supporting our pick. Play the over when the total is 7 to 8.5 when one of the teams is with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season against opponent with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season. This system is 207-129 (61.6%) over the last 5 seasons.
Mike Anthony
Tampa Bay vs. Boston
Play: Boston -138
Steven Wright is a nice bounce back candidate here following a rough first outing. Wright is a solid pitcher who had one bad outing. He’s a 3.88 ERA career guy and because of his struggles with the Orioles, we get him at a good price here. After opening the year strongly, the Rays have dropped five out of their last six to AL East rivals. They’ll try to even this series up with Blake Snell who is 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA and 2.33 ERA in two career starts facing the Red Sox. Boston’s bullpen has looked very strong and if the Red Sox can get a lead, they’re not going to give it back. TB just doesn't have the bats in their lineup to compete.
Rob Vinciletti
Washington vs. Toronto
Play: Washington -145
The Caps take to the road as they look to get back on track after losing at home to Toronto in overtime. Looking at the NHL Historical database we see that road teams that won game 1 at home and then lost game 2 are 34-22 all time in round 1. The Caps 18-8 on the road when the total is 5 or less and 21-9 with revenge. Toronto even with the win has lost 12 of 17 vs winning team and lost by 3 last time they hosted Washington. Look for the Capitals to get this one.
Wunderdog
Indiana @ Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland -8
Indiana gave it all they had in Game 1, but fell to 13-29 SU on the road. The Pacers got the cover, but have failed to cover six of their last eight road contests. Indiana is #14 in the NBA in points allowed, #10 in field goal shooting defense, and is 8-2 UNDER the total in their last 10 Conference Quarterfinals games. The Cavaliers are home for the third straight game. Cleveland is deadly from long range at 38.4 percent during the regular season, second in the NBA, and hitting 11-of-28 in Game 1 while shooting 53.8 percent from the field overall. Cleveland's biggest problem in Game 1 was free throw shooting, a miserable 14-of-27 prevented a rout. Their defense got going in the second half, allowing 25 and 24 points, making this a great spot for the home team to harass Paul George all game, attack the basket, and hit far better from the charity stripe.
Mike Lundin
Pirates vs. Cardinals
Play: Pirates +122
The Pittsburgh Pirates scored a total of 18 runs while sweeping a three-game set against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field over the weekend. I like them to open this three-game series at St. Louis with a win Monday night.
Ivan Nova (1-1, 2.25 ERA) takes the ball for Pittsburgh. He will be facing the Cardinals for the first time in his career, and note that the 3-9 St. Louis is averaging only 3.17 runs per game home at Busch Stadium so far this season.
The Cardinals hand the ball to Lance Lynn (0-1, 5.23 ERA) who conceded six runs (four earned) on five hits and four walks while serving up three homers in an 8-3 loss to Washington his last time out. Lynn is 5-5 with a 4.74 ERA in previous meetings with the Pirates, and note that Pittsburgh has averaged a healthy 4.00 runs per game in six contests on the road this season.
The Cardinals have dropped six of their last seven games, and the value is clearly on Pittsburgh in this matchup
Brandon Lee
Brewers/Cubs Under 7.5
I got no problem laying a little extra on the under to get past the key number of 7 here. This is a much better pitching matchup than most think. Chicago's John Lackey has pitched well enough to win each of his first two starts. He's allowed just 4 runs and has racked up 17 strikeouts in 12 innings of work. Milwaukee send out Chase Anderson, who has been lights out in his first two starts, allowing just 1 run on 6 hits in 13 innings. On top of the strong pitching matchup, conditions will be favoring the under with the win blowing in from left and temperatures right around 50 degrees.
Art Aronson
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs
Play: Maple Leafs +138
So far this series has been very competitive. Washington could easily be 2-0. So too though could Toronto. However, these teams split the opening two games in the Nation’s capital, which is obviously a major advantage for the Leafs. So far Toronto’s Frederik Andersen has outplayed his counterpart Braden Holtby. We think Andersen will once again be a big differene maker this evening. The Leafs have the offensive firepower to match the Capitals and note, Washington is in fact just 1-2 (-1.5 units) in its last three when trailing in a playoff series, while Toronto is 2-1 (+1 unit) in its last three after scoring four goals or more. Looks like a great spot for an upset call, consider the LEAFS on Monday night.
Teddy Davis
Texas vs. Oakland
Play: Texas +121
I suffered a terrible beat with the Rangers yesterday losing the game in the bottom of the 9th. I still believe the value is there with them here. They are coming off getting swept and have a sour taste in their mouths. Who would have thought we could get the Rangers at plus money against the season in just 2 weeks in? AJ pitched really well his last game which was on the road against the red hot Angels at that time, only giving up 4 hits in 6 innings of work and came away with the win
The A's counter with Cotton who was beat up in his only home start this season giving up 5 earned runs in 4 one third innings. The A's are playing the best ball either right now losing 3 straight themselves.
Andrew Gold
Pirates vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -130
I wouldn't be surprised to see this line drop given what we saw from both teams over the weekend, so you could wait and possibly get a better number.
The Cardinals were swept by the Yankees, but now should be hungry here facing a division rival back @ home. Lance Lynn in his only home start pitched well against the Cubs going 5 and a third striking out 4 and only allowing 2 earned runs.
Nova is off to a good start as well, but look at who he has faced with the Reds and the Braves. Also worth noting that both games games were at home. The Pirates will be a popular choice after sweeping the Cubs in Wrigley. However, I believe they are in for a major let down here.
Jimmy Boyd
Marlins vs. Mariners
Play: Mariners -135
I really like the value here with the Mariners as a short home favorite against the Marlins. After a miserable 2-8 start to the season, Seattle swept division rival Texas in a 3-game series at home over the weekend and I like their chances of keeping it going at home here. While Miami is also coming into this having won 3 straight, this is a much tougher spot for the road team. The Marlins had to fly completely across the country following yesterday's game against the Mets. This is the first time Miami has had to travel away from the east coast and I look for them to come out a bit flat here. The Marlins are a mere 8-24 in their last 32 road games when they come into the game having won 3 of their last 4.
I also like the pitching matchup. Seattle will send out Ariel Miranda, who had the unfortunate task of facing the Astros in each of his first two starts. He's not an elite pitcher by any means, but I look for him to perform well at home this season. Miami's Tom Koehler has a 3.27 ERA, but has given up 5 walks and 3 home runs in 11 innings. I don't trust Koehler, especially on the road.