Mike Menase
Milwaukee vs. Chicago
Play: Milwaukee +182
I successfully faded the Cubs' lineup yesterday by betting the 'under,' although their bullpen nearly blew it for me late. The struggles of the Cubs' lineup, who has as yet only found success against the likes of Tyler Glasnow, and of the bullpen, create value for their opponent. I like the way Milwaukee matches up with them.
Cubs' batters have not seen too much of Chase Anderson. But they have yet to find any success against him, managing just six hits in 46 at-bats. Last year, Anderson was 1-0 against the Cubs with a 2.35 ERA in three starts. I look for him to perform well again because of the match-up difficulties he provides Cubs batters. Anderson's pitching repertoire involves a mixture of power and finesse. He throws a very hard sinker and a fastball of average velocity, but also a curve and circle change that enjoy complicated movement. Against pitchers who mix both power and finesse, Cubs batters have mustered a paltry .219 BA and .619 ops in 183 at-bats. Cubs' batters are in a tough spot to turn that around, as they have been at their worst at night, managing a mere .230 BA and .638 ops at this time of day, and they have been at their worst at home, managing a mere .216 BA and .658 ops at home. Anderson is continuing to build off of his strong second-half of last season. After the All-Star Break he was 5-1 with a 3.02 ERA and this season he already 1-0 with a .69 ERA in two starts. I expect another strong performance from Anderson tonight against Cubs' batters who are cold and in a tough spot. And when Anderson does well, his team wins, as last season his ERA was 1.38 in his nine wins, but just 8.39 in his 11 losses.
Lackey has struggled somewhat against Brewers batters, managing a mere 3.79 ERA last year against them in three starts. Active Brewers batters enjoy a .263 BA and .730 ops against him in in 76 at-bats. A concern for Brewers' backers is Lackey's reliance on strikeouts. The Brewers average the second-most strikeouts in the MLB with over 10 per game. Lackey already has 17 strike-outs in two games. And Brewers batters have also struck out 22 times against him. In his last home start against them, however, while he did strike them out eight times, he also managed to give up four runs in seven innings. The potential is still there for Brewers batters to renew their success against Lackey. Especially with a hot Ryan Braun. When we trust Anderson to do well and we can hope for the Brewers to be effective against their opponent's starter, that's really all we need to justify taking them at +182. But the Brewers also enjoy a decisive advantage in the bullpen. Considering recent play, the Cubs' now statistically (measured by ERA) below-average bullpen has been blowing up leads even against the Pirates, who had consistently batted worse in innings 7-9. The Cubs' bullpen is 1-4 with an ERA over 4 and it is in the later games that I look for this game to be decided.
Not only is Anderson capable of outperforming Lackey, but Milwaukee also enjoys a decided advantage in the bullpen. Until the Cubs' batters, especially at home, and the Cubs' bullpen, show me otherwise, they are not worth laying chalk with, especially such heavy chalk. I think we have a smart value play.
SPORTS WAGERS
ATLANTA -1½ +136 over San Diego
Jamie Garcia is 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA after two starts. Garcia has walked four and struck out four over 11 innings so his appeal right now isn’t great. We’re not high on Garcia by any means. Last year, reality didn't live up to fantasy, as too many runners did him in and his control regressed to match his historical first-pitch strike rate. Garcia’s hit percentage got in on the correction game too and then his weak hr/f brought them all around. However, it wasn’t all that bad. An extremely unfortunate hr/f wreaked havoc on his ERA. Note the wide ERA/xERA discrepancy of 4.67/3.83. After handling right-handed batters well throughout his career (.696 OPS in 2,989 PA), Garcia had trouble with them in 2016, thanks largely to a whopping 22 HR allowed vs. RHB (22% hr/f vs. RHB). This year, Garcia was much better in his second start than his first and with a career strong groundball rate of 57%, he can get out of trouble quickly. Still, this is not about backing Garcia.
Jered Weaver will be faded every time he starts for the remainder of this season as long as we don’t have to spot a big price. We’ll pay with runs if we have to because Weaver should not be in the majors. Since 2010, as Weaver’s fastball velocity slid from 90 to its current 83 mph, his xERA rose from 3.46 to the nightmare he posted last year (6.22 xERA). When you throw that slow with so many fly-balls, giving up 37 HR in 178 innings seems inevitable. He tried throwing more first-pitch strikes but there's no fixing this without velocity and/or a decent groundball rate. Weaver has neither. Weaver’s horrendous 5.06/6.22 ERA/xERA over 178 IP with LAA in 2016 -- featuring a 1.9 hr/9, 5.2 K’s/9 and an 83 mph fastball isn't likely to find much respite in slightly more pitcher-friendly parks like Petco or the one he’ll pitch in here. His fastball still tops off at 83 MPH. There should be a movie made about how he got another contract. Fade, fade and fade some more.
N.Y. YANKEES -1½ +146 over Chicago
The South Side are one of the early surprises this year with a 6-5 record but this is a starting pitching staff that is in line for a long summer. Derek Holland is at or near the top of that list. Holland has lost another tick off his fastball. He’s thrown just 203 innings over the last three years since his 2013 breakout. However, his previous HR issues have returned with his versus righties work being the main culprit. Holland’s path back to success is daunting and in his first two starts say it’s not happening anytime soon. The good news is that Holland has allowed only two earned runs through his first two starts of 2017, thus his stock is much higher than it should be. He has a weak 9/5 K/BB ratio, and so far, his fly-ball rate has continued to trend in the wrong direction (45 percent). A start at Yankee Stadium, which increases RHB home runs by 25 percent, is enough to make us jump in on its own but his ERA/xERA split of 1.50/4.57 seals the deal.
Occasionally beleaguered general manager of the Yanks, Brian Cashman, once one of baseball’s boy wonder GMs, enters his 20th season in the Bronx. While doing the Bronx version of “rebuilding” over the past few years, they’ve still been competitive, even making a Wild Card game appearance in 2015. In 2016, they were the deadline’s biggest sellers, cashing in elite relievers to both pennant winners for a major haul of top prospects and sending Carlos Beltran to Texas for a plethora of pitching depth. Yet even after selling hard, they reloaded the roster with assets from the farm and from a few cheap trades.
The Yankees still have the greatest financial advantages of any team in the game, and with the exception of Jacoby Ellsbury they have no questionable money committed past 2018. You are witnessing a monster in the making here. At the forefront of the coming talent boom is catcher Gary Sanchez. Long considered a top catching prospect with all the raw tools, Sanchez emerged in the second half as one of baseball’s premier catchers and power hitters by swatting 20 homers in just 229 plate appearances. He’ll soon be joined by two of baseball’s top hitting prospects, infielder Gleyber Torres and outfielder Clint Frazier, both acquired in last year’s selling spree. We haven’t even mentioned the high-upside talents of incumbent top prospects Jorge Mateo and Aaron Judge. The cupboard isn’t bare in the bigs, either. Didi Gregorius and Starlin Castro are a pair of 27-year-old middle infielders who can play on any team. First baseman Greg Bird was 2015’s Gary Sanchez before missing 2016 with a shoulder injury. He’ll battle 2016 NL home run king Chris Carter for first base and designated hitter opportunities. Veterans like Chase Headley, Matt Holliday Ellsbury and Brett Gardner are more than capable bridges to whatever’s next.
What the Yankees lack in solid current rotation options, they make up for in depth of pitching prospects. The first wave has already landed and his name is Jordan Montgomery. In Montgomery’s first start of the year, he struck out seven batters in 4.2 innings but what sticks out more is an incredible 18% swing and miss rate. Montgomery has dominated at all levels with the latest being at Triple-A Scranton, where in just 37 innings late last year, he allowed just 28 hits with a BB/K ratio of 9/37 to go along with a 0.97 ERA. Montgomery is raw with very little experience at any level of professional baseball but he may be one of those rare jewels that come along from time to time and may just be worth keeping a close eye on. He’s been so good at every level that he’s moved up the ladder so quickly. There is always a risk when backing young starters at this level but in this case, the risk is worth the reward and it sure doesn't hurt that the Yankees are playing great.
Pittsburgh +122 over ST. LOUIS
Lapses in the field, poor pitching and anemic hitting have combined to produce four lost series and a 3-9 record for the Cardinals. The Cardinals will start this series after getting swept in New York and they’ll start with an already taxed bullpen that has a 7.34 ERA after a dozen games. Lance Lynn had Tommy John surgery in November of 2015 and made three minor league rehab starts in August of last year but he and the Cards decided to shut it down. Lynn pitched through pain for most of the 2nd half of 2015 and the hope is that he can regain the form that made him a solid option before the surgery. That may eventually happen but if it does, it’s not happening this early. After two starts, Lynn’s first pitch strike rate is 47% and his swing and miss rate is 8%. He’s already walked five batters in 10 innings after throwing 98 and 101 pitches respectively in just 5 and 5.1 innings respectively over his first two starts. Lynn and the Cardinals are a desperately laboring duo.
Meanwhile, the Pirates just swept the Cubbies at Wrigley so they’ll come into this series with a huge boost of confidence and feeling great. Pittsburgh beat starters, Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks and scored 19 runs in the three games. Ivan Nova quietly was one of the game's most skilled starters in the 2H of 2016. Those skills were driven by his ability to pound the strike zone at a high rate while inducing groundballs at a high clip. In fact, his 3.40 ERA in the second half was backed by a nearly identical 3.49 xERA. After two starts this year, Nova has not walked a batter and while we have some concerns about him, mainly a very low 3% swing and miss rate, what we have here is one pitcher who throws strikes playing for a team that is warming up against a pitcher that can’t throw strikes and is playing on a team that is ice cold. We also get a tag.
Miami +127 over SEATTLE
Both the Mariners and Marlins are coming off weekend sweeps with the Marlins defeating the Mets and the Mariners defeating the Rangers. While Marlins’ starter Tom Koehler isn’t going to dazzle, he’s without question the more experienced and reliable starter here taking back a tag. Koehler’s 3.97 ERA in 2016 and lifetime 4.07 ERA doesn’t exactly catch the eye, but he has provided a little reason for optimism by boasting a 3.41 ERA in 13 second half starts last year. Koehler has been an unexciting, back-end starter throughout his career, and his surface stats indicate it's been more of the same this year after two starts. However, his 3.41 ERA in his last 13 starts of last year and 3.27 ERA after two starts this year all coincided with an alteration of his pitch mix in the middle of last season. Koehler's shaky control still makes him risky, but with the increased slider usage, he may at least offer more profit potential than ever before when taking back a tag.
The real story here is that Ariel Miranda cannot be priced in this range. This Cuban import debuted in second half with an intriguing September bottom line (2.62 ERA, 0.87 WHIP over 34 innings in six starts). A ridiculous 19% hit rate says it’s not sustainable. Overall, the odds against an ex-fly-baller without an elite K-rate finding extended MLB success are prohibitive. Miranda comes into this start having walked five batters in 11 innings while throwing a first-pitch strike 50% of the time. His WHIP of 1.59, his 39% groundball rate and his 4.94 xERA are all not conducive to spotting a tag. This is a simple case of playing the value and letting the chips fall where they may.
Larry Ness
Miami vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle
The Miami Marlins ended their four-game series with division rival the New York Mets, by winning three consecutive contests, after a 9-8 Thursday loss in 16 innings. Sunday's 4-2 victory was capped by a walk-off HR by rookie J.T. Riddle, his first career home run. The Mariners can relate to Miami's recent surge, having won three straight of their own, after scoring in the bottom of the ninth inning Sunday afternoon to outlast Texas 8-7. The Marlins head to Seattle for this three-game IL series with the Mariners at 7-5, while the Mariners are now 5-8, after a 2-8 start to the 2017 season.
Tom Koehler (0-0, 3.27 ERA) will take the mound for Miami on Monday night, opposed by Seattle lefty, Ariel Miranda (0-1, 5.06 ERA). Koehler had a quality start in a no-decision against the Atlanta Braves on Wednesday but also served up two HRs and struck out just one batter. He has never faced the Mariners but is 6-7 with a 4.50 ERA in 18 career interleague starts. Both of Miranda's two starts this year have come against Houston. He first limited the Astros to two runs in five innings on the road but back in Seattle was reached for four runs on seven hits and two walks with five strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings. He has never met the Marlins and is 5-3 in his career while pitching in Seattle.
The Marlins swept three straight in their previous meeting with the Mariners in 2014 but they have not visited Safeco Field since 2011. Koehler has spent his entire major league career with Miami and owns a 16-25 record with a 4.49 ERA in his career away from home. Miranda is more of an unknown but off three straight home wins, I'll back Seattle tonight up against the Marlins, who travel cross-country off a satisfying three straight wins over the Mets.
Power Sports
Diamondbacks at Dodgers
Pick: Dodgers
This is the finale of a four-game set. After taking the first two games, the Dodgers lost yday by a score of 3-1. The standings currently have Dodger Blue in third place in the National League West (7-5 record), one game behind the D'backs, but there is no reason to get concerned in Chavez Ravine. The Dodgers have allowed the fewest number of runs in the National League and also sport the best run differential at +23. It's only a matter of time before they regain supremacy over the division and I believe that starts tonight.
Arizona started the year by going 6-1 at home, but is since just 2-4 on the road. They've outscored opponents by only five runs and were on the wrong end of a 15-5 deficit in the first two games of this series. They are just 5-17 overall their L22 visits here to Chavez Ravine. The Dodgers don't often stay down for long as they're 4-1 this season off a loss and 89-65 in that role the L3 seasons.
In fact, the D'backs seem to have left their offense back at Chase Field. They've averaged a scant 2.5 rpg on the current road trip while batting a collective .198. Dodger Stadium, long known as one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in the sport, has seen road teams hit just .193 so far. Dodgers starter Brandon McCarthy has won both starts thus far and just tossed six scorless innings of four-hit ball ... against the Cubs. D'backs starter Robbie Ray has a 2-0 TSR himself after facing San Francisco and Jeff Samardzija twice, but I worry about his control issues (eight walks so far). My recommendation is to the home team here.
Bruce Marshall
Chicago at Nashville
Pick: Chicago
We're as surprised an any that the Blackhawks, or more specifically the Blackhawks offense, has yet to show up in this series that sees Chicago in desperate trouble as it trails Nashville 2-0 as action shifts to the Bridgestone Arena. Is Chicago a lesser version of recent title-winning and contending editions? Maybe so, but we'll bank on Joel Quenneville squeezing a big effort out of his troops, which have too many game-winners included to go this quietly in a playoff series.
Buster Sports
Ottawa at Boston
Play: Under 5
Last game between these clubs there was no score half way into the game. The special teams for both clubs took over and all of the sudden there was 4 goals scored in the second period. We were a loser in that game as we had the UNDER and we will go with the UNDER again tonight. We still believe as we said the last time these teams played, is that they do not have the offensive power to score in bunches. With both goaltenders having off games in Game 2 we see both Rask and Anderson playing much better tonight. Backing our selection is the fact that the UNDER is 5-1 in Senators last 6 games following a win and the fact that the UNDER is 5-1 in the Bruins last 6 home games.
Scott Rickenbach
Pacers at Cavaliers
Play: Pacers +7.5
With the Pacers one point loss at Cleveland on Saturday, Indiana is now a perfect 7-0 ATS in the month of April. I see no reason to not keep riding the Pacers and their ATS streak. The Cavaliers are at the other end of the spectrum as they're currently on a 5-12 ATS run. Keep in mind, Cleveland failed to cover Game One of this series despite shooting 54% from the field and that says a lot right there. The Cavs are highly unlikely to again shoot that well tonight. Cleveland is now 6-11 ATS this season (and 20-39 ATS the last 3 seasons) in divisional games. The Pacers are 6-2 ATS in all playoff games in recent seasons. Indiana is also 2-0 SU and ATS when trailing in a playoff series and long-term the Pacers are 27-15 ATS when trailing in a playoff series. After coming up just short in Game One, Indiana will go even harder in Game Two and should the Pacers again fall short of the upset, the points should prove to be more than enough here.
SPORTS WAGERS
Ottawa +146 over BOSTON
OT included. The series is tied 1-1 but this game (and series) is priced like the Bruins are running over the Sens. They’re not. Both games have been decided by one goal. During the regular season, a healthy Boston team lost four straight to the Senators. In the first two games of this series, the shots on net, puck possession time and scoring chances have all been about dead even. We’re not sure what the love affair between this market and the Bruins is all about but it’s something we have to try and take advantage of.
Almost everything about this series has been dead even. In Game 1, the Senators played a picture perfect 40 minutes but lost the game after an ugly third period. Game 2 seemed to follow the opposite script, as the Bruins carried the play through the first two periods, only to watch the Senators take over the game in the third and in overtime. Now the series switches to Boston and the perception is that the Bruins will be ready to take this series over. That may happen but we wouldn’t bet on it.
Ottawa has been disrespected in this market all year long and all they do is keep winning games while never getting in a funk. The line here is pure lunacy, as was the series price. What those betting the Bruins should be concerned about is Boston’s defense is getting worse by the day. They were not strong to begin with and now the Bruins' defensive corps is decimated with injuries. The team has recalled defensemen Tommy Cross and Matt Grzelcyk from the Providence Bruins on an emergency basis. The Bruins are in desperate need of help on the blue line, as Adam McQuaid went down with an upper-body injury during Game 2 on Saturday. Boston has lost a starting defenseman in four straight games, with Torey Krug, Brandon Carlo. Colin Miller and McQuaid all going down with injuries over the last two weeks. We understand that injuries are figured into the line but we also understand how market perception influences the number and the market perception on the Senators is ill-perceived.
The Sens now come into this game after an outstanding third period (and OT) in Game 2. They come in with momentum, a psychological edge, healthier and as much talent or more than the Bruins. They also come in with the best player on the ice in Erik Karlsson. If we lose this game, we can live with it because once again we’ll reiterate that we’re not in the prediction business. We’re sticking to playing value and this is by far the biggest overlay on the board once again. Ottawa is in a better position to take control of this series than the Bruins are.
NASHVILLE -105 over Chicago
OT included. The Blackhawks sluggish end to the regular season has bled into the first two games of this round one matchup. Chicago has now lost six straight games with their last victory coming on the final day in March. Over this awful run, the 'Hawks have been shut out three times including the first two games of this series. The Blackhawks playoff pedigree is the only thing keeping this team in the conversation. If their players were wearing any other jersey, we can't imagine the market would be as eager to back them here in a “must win” situation. Chicago has done nothing in this series to deserve that kind of attention but their inflated value provides us with another opportunity to take advantage of this market inefficiency. What this market fails to realize is that Chicago limped into the playoffs and that its great point total this year was mostly accomplished before February. Chicago is a flawed team with weakness in goal, on defense and a lot of young talent making mistakes. This is not a recency bias essay either, as we stated the exact same thing before the series started.
The Predators cleared a huge mental hurdle when they finally took care of business with a pair of playoff wins in Chicago. The Preds’ Achilles Heel all season long was a lack of success on the road but they dug down deep and got progressively better every period once the series started. The Preds were better in Game 2 than they were in Game 1. They were better in period four than they were in period three and better in period five than they were in period four. The Preds experienced and near flawless defensive corps made a big difference. One could actually see a metamorphosis taking place. The Preds played like they were sick of being the Blackhawks whipping boys. They became the little brother that got tired of losing to his bigger and better older brother on one-on-one basketball on the driveway for years. The Preds have grown up.
The Preds learned a lesson last year when they took a 2-0 series lead in Anaheim, only to give it right back in Nashville. A repeat of that is unlikely, as it was part of the growing up process. We've been hard on Pekka Rinne in the past but credit where it's due, as he's been great this series, as have the guys in front of him. The Preds can smell this one and we can too. Nashville is one of the toughest buildings to win in. This is a team that was an absolute monster at home all season long. They dominate at home but what this market sees is a #1 seed that finished with 109 points playing a #8 seed that finished with 94 points.
Thing is, the standings lie to us in hockey. The last three teams to represent the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup finals all finished third in their division during the regular season. One thing the 2013-14 Kings, 2014-15 Blackhawks and 2015-16 Sharks all had in common was that a deeper analysis of their statistics revealed they were more dangerous than the regular season standings suggested. The same goes for the Predators this year and the fact that they are evenly priced here at home is an absolute steal. The Predators no longer fear the Blackhawks.
Anaheim +114 over CALGARY
OT included. We absolutely acknowledge that the Flames have been the better five-on-five team in this series. We absolutely acknowledge that the Flames deserve a better fate than coming home 0-2. However, one must also acknowledge that the Flames have played two very good games and have nothing to show for it. Perhaps Calgary has played as well as they could have. Perhaps Anaheim hasn’t played as well as they’re capable of. What happens now if the Ducks make all the right adjustments and play to the best of their capabilities? We have not seen the Ducks best effort yet but we may have seen Calgary’s.
There is a distinct possibility that the Ducks will be better in Calgary than they were at home. After all, Anaheim is a really good team that can even win it all this year. Pittsburgh was not the better team in its two victories at home but was up 2-0 also. St. Louis was clearly not the better team when they beat Minnesota two straight to go up 2-0 in its series. What happened next was that both Pittsburgh and St. Louis made some adjustments, played better and both went on to win Game 3. While every series takes on a personality of its own, the above samples show how difficult it is to win Game 3 when you are down two games and have put forth your best efforts. The Flames also have to get over the psychological toll that losing takes and while we respect the Flames and their efforts, the value here is once again on the better team, up 2-0 and smelling a wounded prey.
John Martin
Pacers/Cavs Over 209
Defense has been optional for both the Pacers and Cavs all season. Both teams lack a true rim protector and prefer to play small ball. That's why it's no surprise that each of the last four meetings between the Cavs and Pacers this season have seen at least 217 combined points. The books continue to set the number too low here in Game 2 tonight in what should be another shootout.
Steve Janus
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
Play: Diamondbacks +144
Play Against - Home teams (LA DODGERS) - after allowing 4 runs or less 6 straight games against opponent after scoring 4 runs or less 4 straight games. This system is 78-54 (59%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons.
Jack Jones
Brewers vs. Cubs
Play: Cubs -1½
The Chicago Cubs should be highly motivated for a victory in Game 1 of this series with the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. They were swept at home by the Pirates over the weekend and want to get that taste out of their mouths quickly.
John Lackey continues to get it done at a high level for the Cubs. He is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts this season. Lackey has gone 5-2 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.162 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Brewers as well.
The Brewers are 1-12 in Chase Anderson's last 12 road starts after he gave up 2 or fewer earned runs in his last two outings coming in. They are losing by 2.2 runs per game in this spot. Chicago is 22-4 in home games vs. NL teams allowing 4.0 or fewer runs per game over the last two seasons. They were winning by 2.5 runs per game in this spot.
Dave Price
Rangers vs. A's
Play: A's -130
The Key: Jharel Cotton is one of the best-kept secrets in baseball. He has gone 3-1 with a 2.66 ERA over 7 starts in his brief big league career. Cotton is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in one lifetime starts against Texas. He pitched 7 innings while giving up just 1 run and 3 base runners in a dominant 7-1 victory. A.J. Griffin sports a 6.75 ERA through two starts for the Rangers. One of those was against the A's in which he allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 3 1/3 innings on April 7th in his first start this season. Texas is 2-14 in road games vs. AL teams scoring 3.9 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
Rob Veno
Miami vs. Seattle
Play:Miami +133
Long distance road trip for the Marlins starts tonight as they play the first of a six game west coast stint in Seattle. Confidence breeding three consecutive weekend wins over division rival New York figures to help Miami begin this away test. Seattle enjoyed the same weekend productivity as the came out of an early season slump to sweep the Texas Rangers and climb out of the AL West cellar. The sweep really gave a boost to their struggling offense as the posted a slash line of .305/.421/.505/.926.
Tonight’s matchup pits the Marlins explosive RH bats against Mariners 28-year-old lefty Ariel Miranda. Miranda has opened the season with a pair of nondescript outing versus the potent Houston Astros lineup producing game WHIP’s of 1.60 and 1.59 and not making through the sixth inning in either. Anticipate the same types of problems here and his 15 HRs allowed in just 68.2 career innings are cause for concern as well. His mound opponent RH Tom Koehler is off to his predictably consistent start. For the most part over 30 season starts you expect a six inning three runs allowed effort and through his pair of outings he’s totaled 11 IP and 4 ER allowed. He too has had some difficulty with the long ball yielding three HR’s thus far. Seattle has capable LH bats but up to this point their line against right handers is a paltry .232/.302/.373/.675.
Hesitant to play the Mariners right now due to the continued slow start of what is considered to be their top three hitters Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager. With SS and leadoff hitter Jean Segura still on the 10-day DL and off season acquisition Danny Valencia off to a .174/.220/.261/.481 start, the Mariners are currently relying on starting pitching and bullpen. Tonight, statistical indicators suggest that Miami is better in all categories so the underdog price of +133 looks to be worth taking.
Brad Wilton
Monday night comp play is the Over in the Pacers-Cavaliers contest.
Like clockwork of late, Game One went Over the posted price on Saturday, as the team combined for 217 points. That makes it 2 straight series meetings Over the total, and 6 of the last 9 played between these Eastern rivals also Over the posted price.
Dating back to the regular season, Indiana is on an 11-4 Over tear their last 15 games - which includes the last 2 versus Cleveland.
As for the Cavaliers, they are now on a 7-2 Over run their last 9, which does include their last regular season meeting against Indy in early April.
Defense NOT the call from the stands these days when these teams jump ball, so stick with the trends that say to play it Over once again.
4* INDIANA-CLEVELAND OVER
Jack Brayman
My free winner for Easter Sunday was the Atlanta Braves over the San Diego Padres. Tonight I'm playing the Braves to once again get the money over the Friars, as the two close their weekend set.
The Braves opened the season mired in a 1-6 skid, but have turned things around a bit and ride into this finale on a four-game win streak. And they catch a struggling Padres team that opened the season winning five of nine, but have lost three in a row.
While the Braves are playing fantastic right now, the Padres have been outscored 18-6 in this series.
I won't list the pitchers in this one, as it's not necessary and a foolish move. No, I'm basing this strictly off momentum, location and the situation we have.
After Sunday's 9-2 demolition of the Friars, the Braves have won seven straight against the Padres and 11 of the past 13 meetings between the two sides in Atlanta.
Take Atlanta straight here.
1* BRAVES