DAVE COKIN
ANGELS VS. WHITE SOX
PLAY: WHITE SOX -120
I’m not normally one to sound the bad line alert. But I think we’re seeing quite a few of those in the early going as far as the Angels are concerned. I might end up being dead wrong on this assessment, but I don’t think the Halos are going to be any good this season, I bet them Under on their win total, and it looks to me like the numbers on their early season games have been consistently off.
Note this isn’t a shot at the oddsmakers. The comment is more tilted toward the bettors, who must have a different collective view than I do regarding the Angels. But it’s also worth noting that the money showed against the Halos the last couple of days, and I expect the same thing to happen here.
Carlos Rodon will make the start for the White Sox tonight, and he’s one of the rising pitching stars in baseball. Rodon has a great four-pitch arsenal, and while his control is not always spot on, this lefty’s potential is Cy Young level. Rodon is just plain nasty and when he’s hitting his spots, he’s a nightmare for opposing hitters.
The tough part of handicapping Rodon at this point is that there’s really no way of knowing if he’s going to be crushing the strike zone or having command issues. Once that inconsistency is cured, the sky’s the limit. His first two starts this season serve as a prime example. But it’s also important to note that in his most recent start, the damage done was pretty limited even though it was a game where Rodon issued far too many walks.
I like Rodon’s chances against an Angels offense that just isn’t doing much right now. Mike Trout will eventually break out, but for the present he’s struggling a bit, and the supporting cast is not impressive. Yunel Escobar is doing pretty well, Kole Calhoun is continuing to improve, and Albert Pujols can still send a mistake into orbit. But this is decidedly not a scary lineup right now and if Rodon is sharp tonight, the Halos are in trouble.
Hector Santiago is well down the list as far as my starting pitcher rankings are concerned. I’ll admit he’s surprised me to some extent in finding ways to hang in despite below average metrics, and it’s not like he’s facing murderer’s row tonight. Todd Frazier is in one of his long swing slumps to start the season. The White Sox walk rate thus far is absurdly low, and it’s actually kind of amazing that they’re off to a good start in spite of some glaring offensive deficiencies.
But as bad as the Chisox have been with the sticks, the Angels have actually been even worse. So for me, this is pretty much all about the pitching, and I give the hosts check marks on both the starter and the bullpen here. I made Rodon a considerably higher number here, so I’ve got not problem spotting the 6:5 odds currently available on the White Sox.
Sleepyj
Rockies / Reds Over 9
High total here for a NL game...These two pitchers though have been brutal this season....I think we have a great shot at one of these guys getting lit up or even both for 4+ runs each...Bullpens are rather weak and we have some decent power in this game...Rockies will send out Jordan Lyles and his ERA after two games is 11.25....Lyles only has 5 strikeouts in 8 innings of work..he has just as many walks...Tons of contact and the Reds being at home should feel good in the box..On the others side for the Reds they will go with Alfredo Simon...This guy is even worse by the numbers..He has been bopped around in his 3 appearance..His ERA is 12.15....He has only 9 strikeouts in 6 innings...He hasn't been past the 5th inning yet this season..He has given up 2 HR's and 5 walks...He like Lyles gives up a ton of contact...We have plenty of bats within the first 5 spots of these lineups that can do damage to a decent pitcher...With what I have seen from these guys the entire lineup can be an issue..I know the total is high here at 9, but with these two guys they can give up double digits before the 6th..I'll take the over and hope these guys are true to form.
Rob Vinciletti
Angels vs. White Sox
Play: White Sox -118
Chicago is 17-3 the past few seasons as a home favorite off a 1 run road loss. The Angels have lost the last 4 here and they have H. Santiago on the mound and he has a 5.07 Era vs the Whitesox. Rodon for Chicago has been superb in 2 starts vs LA With a 1.38 Era going 15 innings allowing just 2 runs. Finally home favorites off a road favored loss scoring 2 or less are 22-4 since 2004 vs an opponent off a road loss also scoring 2 or less runs. Play on the Whitesox.
Marc Lawrence
Mets vs. Phillies
Play: Mets -170
Edges - Mets: Noah Syndergaard 2-0 with 1.45 ERA career team starts in this series; and 21 K’s and 2 W’s this season, along with 19 K’s and 1 W this spring. With the Phillies 6-14 as hosts in this series, as well as just 6-12 the last 18 overall games in this series, we recommend a 1* play on the Mets.
Matt Josephs
Mets vs. Phillies
Play: Under 6½
The Phillies have won six games this season without having double digit hits in a single game. They have played in seven unders in their 13 contests overall and that's also because of solid starting pitching. Jerad Eickhoff has gone 12 innings this season giving up three runs and nine hits. He faced the Mets back on April 8th when he held them to three runs and five hits in five innings. The righty is 1-3 with a 2.88 ERA and a WHIP of 1.000 in four career starts against New York. Noah Syndergaard has given up just one run in two outings. He has 21 strikeouts to just two walks and should have few problems navigating this Phillies lineup. Philly is hitting .180 in night games while the Mets are hitting a lusty .222. These two pitchers should be able to do some work on Monday.
Larry Ness
Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Minnesota Twins
Phil Hughes is seeking his SEVENTH straight win in as many starts against an NL opponent...
The Minnesota Twins opened the current season 0-9, totaling just 14 runs while going a woeful 5-for-66 (.076) with RISP. It represented the franchise’s worst opening stretch since the 1904 Washington Senators opened 0-13-1 in its fourth year of existence. However, the Twins swept the LA Angels over the weekend and manager Paul Molitor liked what he saw. "To endure that first stretch and respond this way is a good sign - 0-9 is a pretty big hole, so you don't want to get too giddy," Molitor told reporters. "But you'll take bunching some wins here in response to that 0-9."
The Brewers come to Minnesota on Monday, as the teams begin a four-game, home-and-home interleague series. Milwaukee has dropped FOUR of six to fall to 5-7. However, the good news is, the Brewers are 4-1 in games started by Jimmy Nelson and Chase Anderson, the latter of whom will take the mound Monday night. Anderson began his career in 2014, pitching for Arizona. He opened his big league career winning his first FIVE starts but he came to Milwaukee this season 15-13 with a 4.18 ERA in 48 starts for the D’backs (Arizona was 22-26 in all of his starts, despite that 5-0 beginning).
Anderson has made two starts with his new club and allowed three runs (all unearned) over 11 innings, with the Brewers winning both contests (opponents are batting just .211 against him and he owns an 0.91 WHIP to go along with that 0.00 ERA). He’ll face Phil Hughes, who has not pitched poorly, allowing three ERs in each of his first two 2016 starts, but does come in 0-2. Hughes has recorded a quality start in each of those first two outings plus has 11 Ks without allowing a walk. However, he hasn't received much help from his offense, as he's been backed by only TWO runs through his two starts.
The 29-year-old draws Milwaukee for the first time in his career but one can’t ignore that he will be eyeing his SEVENTH straight win in as many starts against an NL opponent. Let’s also note that the right-hander faces a Milwaukee team which was just 49-74 against righties last year, including 24-38 on the road.
Expect Minnesota to make it FOUR wins in a row. Break up the Twins!
Frank Jordan
Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Golden State Warriors -13
The game was out of reach at the end of the first quarter and officially over at halftime as the Warriors dominated the Rockets and got inside their heads winning the mental game as well. Golden State was up 33-15 after one and 60-33 at the half making the second half a moot point. Curry had 24 points in just 20 minutes, but twisted an ankle so his play for game two could be hampered. Even if Curry is a little dinged up if the Warriors play like they did in game one he won't have to play at all in the second half. Houston had some issues with foul trouble, but they also had some issues shooting going 6 of 22 from three and only 50% from the foul line while Golden State hit 10 of 25 from the three and were 67% from the free throw line. Look for another easy victory for Golden State as Houston is beaten mentally and that is half the battle.
Jim Feist
Angels at White Sox
Pick: Under
The LA Angels were just the medicine that the Minnesota Twins needed. The Twins started the season 0-9 before sweeping the Angels in their three game series. The Angels offense has been sputtering badly thus far, scoring just 36 total runs over 12 games, third worst in the A.L. The White Sox have started fast, winning eight of their first 10 before losing the last two games. Their pitching has been solid, allowing just 32 runs over 12 games, that's best in the A.L. The Sox have been a good under team, going 6-17-3 O/U/P in their last 26 games overall. The way the Angels are hitting coupled with the excellent White Sox pitching is a recipe for this game to go under.
Brad Diamond
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -109
Toronto (6-7) has lost four straight series with the Red Sox (6-5), including the recent set in Canada. Here they are 1-2 after winning 5-3 yesterday (TOTAL WINNER FOR BDS). The Jays use Lefty Happ (1-0, 2.25) vs. RHP Buckholz (0-1, 10.00) for the Red Sox. Toronto is a PERFECT 0-6 in his road starts dating back to last season. But, Boston is 1-8 in Buck's last nine starts at home. This season the RH has given up 10 earned runs in 9 innings of work against Cleveland and Baltimore. And, despite those numbers the Diamond is looking for a Red Sox rebound to take the series. Buckholz has spent extra time this week working his control (6 walks) and should be ready for an emotional outing, considering Boston is 7-of-10 vs. LHP and 9-4.
Ray Monohan
Milwaukee Brewers +125
The Brewers head into Minnesota on Monday and hold solid value at plus money here. Milwaukee will send out Chase Anderson, who has been dominant here in the early going. Anderson hasn't allowed an earned run through his first 11.0 innings of work. Milwaukee has also won both games Anderson has started in.
The Twins will use Phil Hughes here on Monday. He's struggled out of the gate going as he sits with a 4.38 ERA and an 0-2 recorded. The Twins have given him no run support either, which has to be alarming for him.
Some trends to consider. MIN are 3-12 in their last 15 overall and are 3-12 in their last 15 games on grass.
At plus money, the Brewers have solid value here. They have a better edge here and with the pitching matchup tilted in their favor, they're worth a play.
Jimmy Boyd
Mavericks +14
Things couldn't have gone any worse for the Mavericks in Game 1, as they suffered an embarrassing 38-point loss, while scoring a franchise-low 70 points in a playoff game. Needless to say the betting public is going to want nothing to do with them in Game 2 and the oddsmakers have shaded this line up to 14 after listing OKC as a 12-point favorite in the opener.
I believe it's created some big time value here on the Mavericks, as we can expect to see a max effort here by Dallas, while the Thunder are going to have a difficult time taking this game seriously after how easily they won the previous matchup.
Mavs head coach Rick Carlisle is one of the best in the business at making adjustments in the postseason and he will have his team better prepared for OKC tonight. We can also expect a lot more offensively from Dallas in this one, as they simply aren't going to shoot under 30% in consecutive games.
Thunder are just 13-22 ATS in their last 35 after covering the spread in their previous game, while Dallas is 23-14 ATS in their last 37 after failing to cover the number. Mavericks are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half.
Brad Wilton
Monday comp play is Under the total in the Houston-Golden State contest.
Game One saw the Rockets net just 78 total points as the Under was never in jeopardy.
That puts the series numbers (playoffs included) at 6-3 Under the total the last 9 times these teams have faced one another since last May!
Houston is now 9-5 Under the total in their last 14 games, while Golden State has played Under the total in 10 of their last 15 games overall.
With Steph Curry now playing with an ankle injury, think it is best to stay Under the total until we see these teams light up the scoreboard one time.
Under in Game One, Under in Game Two too!
3* HOUSTON-GOLDEN STATE UNDER
Greg Smith
Rockets vs. Warriors
Play: Rockets +13.5
Curry will play tonight, but at what capacity? I believe this could be a problem for the Warriors moving forward and tonight I don't expect him to get 48 minutes of play. The Rockets will have a better game plan this time around and they won't have they star player (Harden) with four fouls and four points at halftime like the was in game one. Take the generous points and expect this game to be much closer than the last.
Brandon Lee
Brewers vs. Twins
Play: Twins -135
After scoring just 14 runs in their 0-9 start to the season, Minnesota's offensive exploded for 14 runs on 31 hits in a 3-game sweep of the Angels over the weekend. I look for the offense to carry over that momentum in today's series opener at home against the Brewers, who will be playing their seventh straight on the road. Milwaukee's Chase Anderson hasn't allowed an earned run in his first 2 starts, but that's not going to continue much longer. Anderson has made 48 starts over the last 2 seasons and has a 4.01 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in those outings. Phil Hughes takes the mound for Minnesota. While he's got a 4.38 ERA, his 1.054 WHIP indicates he's been much better than his ERA would lead on and I look for a strong outing here against a Milwaukee offense that is averaging just 3.2 runs/game.
Power Sports
Arizona vs. San Francisco
Pick: Arizona +1.5
Please note that this recommendation is for the D'backs +1.5 on the run line. The road team has a bit of an advantage Monday night in the sense that the Giants had to play the Sunday night game. I look for Arizona to do no worse than a one-run loss here.
San Fran has now dropped four of five (I played against them last night) and shouldn't feel too confident in sending Jake Peavy to the bump this evening. In two starts, Peavy has an ERA of 10.00 and a WHIP of 2.444, both obviously terrible numbers. He's allowed 21 hits in just nine innings of work and while supporters will point to the fact his last start came at Coors Field, what about his first start (here at home) where he allowed four runs and 10 hits in five innings? Peavy gave up 10 extra base hits against the Rockies on Wednesday and posted a 7.50 ERA in two starts LY vs. Arizona.
Pitching tonight for the D'backs will be Archie Bradley and this will be Bradley's season debut. While it's a bit of a question mark what Bradley will give the team here, take note that he did turn in a quality start in his lone appearance vs. the Giants last year. Also, the D'backs went 8-2 here at AT&T Park in 2015. That should have them confident coming into this series and I expect the offense to handle its business.