Jeff Alexander
Mavs/Thunder Over 200
The Mavericks and Thunder went way below the total in Game 1, as the two teams combined for just 178 points with a total of 207. As a result we have seen the books make a major adjustment here by setting the total for Game 2 at just 200 points. I believe this is simply too big of an overreaction from one game and the value here is clearly on the OVER. Dallas had a historically bad offensive performance in Game 1 and are simply not going to be that bad in Game 2. At the same time, the Mavericks haven't held Oklahoma City under 100 points in 5 meetings this season. I look for that trend to continue with Dallas coming close and potentially going over the 100-point mark as well.
Jack Jones
Los Angeles Angels +125
I like the value we are getting with the Los Angeles Angels as nice-sized road underdogs against the Chicago White Sox tonight. The Angels will be highly motivated for a win in Game 1 of this series after getting swept in three games by the Twins last series.
Hector Santiago is one of the most underrated starters in baseball. He has gone 23-28 with a 3.56 ERA in his career, not once posting higher than a 3.75 ERA in his six seasons in the big leagues. He is 0-0 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.024 WHIP through two starts in 2015.
Los Angeles is 19-4 off three straight losses by 2 runs or less. The Angels are 8-0 in Santiago's last eight starts overall, including 4-0 in his last four road starts.
Dave Price
Chicago Cubs -102
John Lackey hasn't gotten off to the greatest of starts for the Cubs, but he's still 2-0 despite a 5.68 ERA in 2 starts this season. I look for Lackey to be motivated to face his former team in the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. I will also gladly fade Mike Leake, who is 0-1 with a 6.97 ERA and 1.839 WHIP in his first 2 starts with the Cardinals this season. They lost both starts. Lackey is 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA in 2 lifetime starts against St. Louis as well.
Jeff Benton
Monday freebie is Over in the Pacers-Raptors game.
Indy allowed just 90 points on Saturday to Toronto as Game 1 did hold Under the total, but with the prospects of heading back to Indiana down 0-2 staring them in the face, do you honestly think the Raptors won't at least get to 100 points tonight?
I say Toronto hits triple-digits, and we go Over the total in Game 2.
Both teams have been on Under runs lately, and 3 of the last 4 series meetings have also held low, but it should be noted that 6 of the last 9 overall series showdowns have indeed gone Over the posted price.
With their backs against the wall, Toronto fires up the offense tonight, and we go Over the total.
1* INDIANA-TORONTO OVER
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 44-29 run with complimentary plays: Milwaukee at MINNESOTA (-130)
The STORYLINE in this game today - Chase Anderson has been on fire for the Milwaukee Brewers. Too bad I could care less he hasn't allowed an earned run over this first two starts and think he will get rocked at Target Field tonight. I am siding with the Minnesota Twins, who have seemingly found life after dropping nine straight to start the season. Now on a three-game win streak, I like the Twins to roll for No. 4 in a row.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Guess what - it's Anderson! I am not listing pitchers, but I can acknowledge something about him since he is going tonight. Besides, this is a free play, so take all this for what it's worth. But Anderson was shellacked for 19 runs and five homers over 14-2/3 innings over five starts during spring training. He is hittable, and makes mistakes in the wrong spots. His scouting report is clear, and the Twins will be ready.
BOTTOM LINE is - The Brewers' offense has been dismal, as they're batting .213 and averaging 3.3 runs. Their 114 strikeouts trail only San Diego's 128 for the most in the National League. Now having to travel, into a rowdy environment while the Twins are on a nice roll, I think they're going to struggle to plate some runs tonight.
2* TWINS
Wunderdog
Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild
Pick: Minnesota Wild +119
Dallas heads out on the road up 2-0, but fortunate to be so after a 2-1 win at home in Game 2. Dallas is a young team that is short on defense and is playing only its second postseason series in the past eight years. Dallas has unraveled in the defensive zone for sustained stretches this season, finishing #19 in goals allowed. Tyler Seguin returned the last game after missing the previous 11 with a cut to his left Achilles suffered March 17. He was rusty, failing to get on the score sheet. Minnesota is home after giving Dallas a great game with shots on goal almost even, along with an edge in hits. Dallas had 17 giveaways to Minnesota's six. What hurt the Wild was getting jobbed on penalties, 20 minutes in penalties to eight for Dallas. Minnesota has the far better defense (#9 in goals allowed) than Dallas. Minnesota Goalie Devan Dubnyk is a veteran force, and the Wild are 9-5 playing on one day of rest. Also, the home team is 39-16 in the last 55 meetings.
Bruce Marshall
Angels / White Sox Under 8
Two offenses not scoring many runs and two capable pitchers suggests this 8 1/2 "total" might be too high tonight at The Cell. Chisox starter Carlos Rodon continues to have problems with walks but has also allowed just 2 runs over 13 IP in his first two outings this season, and faces a reeling Halos offense that was just swept by the struggling Twins. last season, Rodon posted a 1.20 ERA and OBA of .160 in two starts over 15 IP vs. the Angels. Meanwhile, Halos starter Hector Santiago has a solid 1.02 WHIP after two starts.
Kings / Sharks Under 5
The Kings might be thinking they have the Sharks where they want them, as San Jose played far worse this season at home than on the road (where it had the NHL's best mark). Moreover, LA shouldn't be blinking after rallying from a 3-0 deficit to win four straight vs. the Sharks two years ago in the first round. Keep in mind, however, that LA lost the first two games on the road in the 2014 series, while it has lost two at home to begin this time vs. the Sharks. San Jose's disruptive blitz-forechecking kept the Kings off balance in Game Two, and we expect this clash to look much like that Saturday game in a test of wills between GKs Jonathan Quick of LA and his former understudy Martin Jones with the Sharks.
GoodFella
Reds TT Over 4
A nice weather pattern for us here this evening. We have one of the league's easiest parks to hit HR's in here at Cincinnati, too. Several of the Reds have had great success vs the Rockies SP Lyles. Then we get in to that poor Colorado bullpen. The Reds bats are clicking right now & I simply see way to many ways the Reds plate at least 4 runs this evening IMO and I am on their Team Total OVER 4 in this spot.
Scott Delaney
My free play is out of the NHL, as I'm laying the cheap price with the San Jose Sharks, against the Los Angeles Kings. I remember two years ago when the Sharks pissed away a 3-0 series lead to this same team.
Up 2-0 in this series, San Jose is going for the jugular tonight, after winning the first two games of this series in Los Angeles.
And make note that teams that have won the first two games on the road have an all-time series record of 65-18.
The Sharks would love nothing more than to take a commanding 3-0 lead, knowing Game 4 is at home, and they could wrap things up this week.
I know San Jose has the worst home record for any 2016 playoff team, but this is the playoffs and something different clicks for teams when it comes to the postseason.
Lay the cheap home chalk.
1* SAN JOSE
Don Anthony
Miami Marlins -162
This just missed being a premium play, as I was hoping for less than a buck fifty, so we'll go ahead and make it the free selection. This is clearly a pitching mis-match tonight as the, IMO, worst starter for the Nats faces off against probably the most dominant home pitcher in the game. Washington comes off an extra inning loss to the Phillies last night and has to travel to Miami tonight. This will be Washington's 9th game in 9 days. Miami also just got swept at home by the winless Braves, so I expect a big time bounce back here from the Fish.
Michael Alexander
Rockies +123
Colorado won for the fourth time in its last five tries Sunday behind Arenado's second two-homer performance of the week, although Tyler Chatwood also played a starring role by blanking the Cubs over seven frames in a 2-0 victory against the early favorite to win the National League. Chad Bettis was every bit as good in the opener against Chicago, tossing six scoreless innings in a 6-1 win on Friday. The Reds are spinning their tires in the mud after a strong start and fell to 1-5 on the road following Sunday's 4-3 setback in St. Louis. Lyles has enjoyed better luck in seven appearances (six starts) against the Reds, going 3-1 while Colorado's starting pitchers have posted a 2.08 ERA over the last four games.
SPORTS WAGERS
SAN JOSE -105 over Los Angeles
OT included. The narrative in this series appears to mirror that of 2014, as the Sharks have a 2-0 lead over the rival Kings after sweeping in L.A. For whatever reason, public perception is that the Kings are going to bounce back like they always do or that the Sharks are going to choke like they always do. We could not disagree more. These are not your big brother’s Sharks. They are now well-coached, which is very evident in Joe Thornton’s game. Thornton's defensive awareness has been on full display through two games, thwarting many a Kings' offensive attempts. The Sharks are not reliant on one scoring line anymore. Playing on Logan Couture's second line, Joonas Donskoi has looked confident and poised, putting the puck in safe areas and finding open teammates with deft passes. Those are just two examples but you can use any player on San Jose as an example to show what a difference a coach and a strong system makes. Former Kings backup and current Sharks No. 1 goalie Martin Jones has looked smooth in his first two career playoff starts. Unlike 2014, this time around the Sharks have goaltending, depth, coaching and a big psychological edge that they are not about to give up. The Sharkies are now 5-1-1 versus L.A. this season and it’s completely legit.
The market is having a hard time envisioning the Kings losing again tonight but we’re not having a hard time with that at all. Los Angeles is a frustrated team that is not getting as many chances as the Sharks. Everything that the Kings do well, the Sharks have done better. Much has been made about the Sharks poor home record this year but that, too, only works to our advantage because that home record is due for a correction. Fact is, San Jose’s possession numbers were better at home this year than they were on the road so the truth is that the Sharks just got very unlucky at home.
All that aside, let’s discuss value here. If this series opened in San Jose and the Kings took a 2-0 series lead coming home, Los Angeles would be at least -160 in Game 3. San Jose was the better team both games in Los Angeles and they’re coming home as a small favorite in the pick-em range. It just goes to show how the market’s perception of these two teams is way off based on pedigree and exposure. The Kings are a big market team with a large following while the Sharks are a small market team that few watch outside of the Bay area. We are now going to attempt to take advantage of that perception by playing the huge value on this home favorite.
MINNESOTA +120 over Dallas
OT included. Well, this is interesting. The Philadelphia Flyers have played a decent two games against the Capitals in Washington. The Flyers even dominated Game 2 in terms of puck possession and shots on net. Philadelphia will return home tonight to play their first game at home since founder Ed Snider’s death. Much has been made about the emotion that will resonate throughout Wells Fargo tonight. The Flyers will be as emotionally charged as that building and many people are giving the Flyers a great chance to pick up a win here. By contrast, Minnesota has scored one goal in two games in Dallas and their only goal came in the final six minutes of Game 2. Minnesota also lost five straight to end the regular season, not to mention the first two games of this series. The Minnesota Wild are on a seven-game losing streak.
Despite all of the above, Washington is a bigger price tonight in Philadelphia than Dallas is in Minnesota. We’re not going to try and make a case for the Wild because it is near impossible to. However, there are times when we must strictly make a wager based on the numbers. Dallas is a small -130 favorite tonight. Once the market gets a hold of the number, it is likely to go up but that is of no concern to us. Our focus here is on the opening line that appears to be extremely short to the unsuspecting. In other words, how can Washington be a bigger price in Philly than the high scoring Stars are in Minnesota against a team that has one goal in two playoff games and that has dropped seven in a row overall? This is strictly a play on the numbers that say the oddmakers are dangling a big proverbial carrot in front of chalk bettors. Beware.
SPORTS WAGERS
Milwaukee (5 innings) +129
Phil Hughes is a premium strike-thrower that couldn't make his 2014 resurgence stick in 2015. Blame his swing and miss rate falling off cliff and the return of gopheritis (allowing jacks). Hughes’ solid swing and miss history favors a rebound, but looking back reminds us of his consistent 4+ ERAs, too. Hughes’ big struggles versus right-handers, especially lately cement the risk in his average profile. The risk-averse should side with pessimism. The Twins have won three in a row after opening the season 0-9 but all three wins over the Halos this past weekend were by the slimmest of margins, as all three games were tied in the eighth inning.
Chase Anderson has not given up a run in his two starts covering 11 innings in 2016. Anderson has struck out nine batters while giving up eight hits and two walks during that span. Anderson squares off against the Twins .634 OPS in 2016. While it’s early and we are usually looking to sell high on previously average starters that are off to a hot start, the price on Anderson here make this one appealing. Besides, Anderson is someone you might want to keep an eye on. Chase Anderson has added a cutter per pitch type info at Fangraphs (and Brooks Baseball agrees), but then Pitch FX isn’t recognizing the jump in cutter usage so we’re betting it’s classifying a lot of them as standard fastballs. Either way, it’s working. Anderson’s called-strike percentage on 4-seamers and cutters is up seven percentage points to 42% (league average is 35%). Anderson is also working the heat outside a lot more, up from 45% to 67%. Obviously Anderson’s dominance won’t stick but the Twins have never seen Anderson before and so there’s a good chance that he has another decent outing here or at least in the first five innings.
L.A. Angels +125 over CHICAGO
The White Sox opened the year with eight wins in their first 10 games but they are coming back down to Earth quickly. The South Side scored five times in three games in Tampa Bay this past weekend. They have scored three runs or less in five straight, which includes two games against Minnesota’s weak staff. While Carlos Rodon has upside, he and the South Side are probably the most overpriced game on the board today. Rodon was a top 2014 draft pick that held his own in his first MLB exposure in 2015. Rodon’s K-rate and swing and miss rate was firm all season and his groundball rate and HR avoidance were pluses. However, Rodon’s control was a different story. His first pitch strike rate of 49% says he has plenty of work to do. In two starts this year, Rodon’s first-pitch strike rate is 48%. His below average dominant start/disaster start split says the White Sox will have to take the good with the bad for now. We don’t. We can fade Rodon when he’s priced this high and that’s precisely what we’ll do.
After getting swept in Minnesota this past weekend, the Angels stock is very low. Still, the Angels were a game over .500 before this past weekend so it’s not like they can’t win a game. We were not big supporters of Hector Santiago last year because most of his work was luck-driven but we’re seeing completely different results this year. Santiago’s fastball is averaging 93 MPH, up from 91 MPH last year. His groundball rate is way up from 30% last year to 48% this year after two starts. His line-drive rate of 7% also after two starts is elite. Santiago is throwing strikes, he’s keeping the ball down and he’s added a curve ball to give him five different pitches. While he’s only throwing the curve 3% of the time, it’s still something hitters have to be aware of. He’ll throw any one of his other pitches (besides his fastball) 10% of the time so he has the ability to keep hitters off balance. Santiago is a work in progress that appears to be a real student of the game. His determination to get better and master his craft is something that one must respect. Santiago’s value is low for this start because Carlos Rodon is overpriced, which sets up this nice buy-low, sell high situation.
Harry Bondi
DALLAS +13.5 over Oklahoma City
No, we have not lost our minds...yet! Oklahoma City played a perfect game in destroying Dallas in the series opener. Nobody expects the Mavericks to have a shot in tonight's game. Checking our 3 favorite Las Vegas sportsbooks, we find that 89% of the bets on this match-up are on the Thunder. They saw what everybody saw Saturday night, a non-competitive effort by Dallas. But if you have been following are service for any amount of time, you know we are contrarians at heart and we expect the Mavericks to show some fight and take this game to the final buzzer. Vegas is not building bigger and better sports books every year because 90% of the betting public wins, right? Dallas keeps it close.
Rob Veno
Milwaukee at Minnesota
Play: Milwaukee +127
Phil Hughes had a good year throwing at home last year posting a 9-3 record in 15 his starts with a 1.15 WHIP and 3.87 ERA. Despite those solid AL numbers, Hughes still allowed 15 HRs in those starts and only struck out 5.1 batters per nine innings but his .280 home BAbip was the difference maker. In his two seasons pitching for the Twins, that .297 home split was below his other three home/road splits which are incredibly consistent (2015 Away BABip .336 / 2014 Home .325 / Away .327). The point being that Hughes is the same pitcher he has always been and a little bit of luck led him to better 2015 home numbers. In his one home start thus far in 2016 his BABip was .353 and he was saddled with his first home loss of this season. Milwaukee’s lineup is no longer above average offensively but they are far better against righties this year (.235 BA vs RH / .171 vs. LH). Four of the six games where they’ve produced 12+ total bases have been against RH’s and four of the five games where they’ve scored 4+ runs have come against them. The Brewers figure to have enough offense to get Hughes for three runs in six innings. The fun could then begin for Milwaukee since Minnesota’s top pair of relief options have been used extensively since last Thursday. Closer Kevin Jepsen who is filling in for injured LH closer Glen Perkins has thrown each of the last three days while setup man Trevor May has thrown three of the last four days including yesterday totaling 66 pitches. While Jepsen figures to be definitely unavailable tonight, it’s possible May could be rested too and even if he’s not, his effectiveness is questionable. The Twins bullpen has thrown a total of 185 pitches the past five days and Jepsen & May have thrown 107 (57.8%) of the which indicates how reliant they are on them. Milwaukee's Chase Anderson has strung back-to-back effective starts together to start the season against Houston and St. Louis allowing zero earned runs and only 10 total base-runners in his 13 innings pitched. Anything in that area tonight should be more than enough to get Milwaukee a win and the +130 price makes it worth taking a shot.