Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Monday, April 24th, 2017

DAVE COKIN

BUCKS AT RAPTORS
PLAY: BUCKS +6

I prefer the Milwaukee side in tonight’s Game Five matchup at Toronto between the Bucks and Raptors.

Two aspects stand out for me. One is the eye test. I really don’t see a great deal of difference between these two entries. Perhaps a slight edge to the Raptors based on their big edge in playoff experience, but that’s really about it. If that’s the case, there’s a little value in the number being as high as it is.

But it’s interesting to note that said betting line is not as high as it’s been previously. In Game One, the Raptors were -7. That line went up slightly in the second game, with Toronto opening at -7.5 and getting bet up to -8.

Tonight’s Game Five number opened lower than in the first two games, and is currently sitting at Raptors -6 at virtually every store I have access to. I would consider that to be at least a small indicator on the part of the oddsmakers, and I’m in accord with the adjustment.

Game Five in a tied series is as pivotal as it gets, and I’m expecting a tense and tight battle tonight. My opinion is that the Bucks +6 are the way to play.

Scott Spreitzer

Reds vs. Brewers
Play: Reds -107

Milwaukee has lost three in a row and is 3-8 at home this season while the Reds are 5-1 on the road and come off a 7-5 win over John Lackey and the Cubs. Amir Garrett has allowed only four runs and three walks while striking out 21 his first three starts covering 19 2/3 innings. He took a tough loss last time out as Baltimore won 2-0 in spite of Garrett's 12 strikeouts. Matt Garza will make his first start since coming off the disabled list due to a groin strain. Garza was 0-2 with a 4.35 ERA in two games against Cincinnati last year. Eugenio Suarez has been hot for the Reds as he's hitting .371 and was 6-for-11 against the Cubs with two home runs. Suarez is batting .444 in nine at-bats against Garza.

Red Dog Sports

GD Chaves vs. Moreirense
Play: Chaves +250

This soccer match takes place in Portugal on Monday afternoon. Chaves is #8 of the 18 league teams with a -1 goal difference while the home team is #16/18 at 6 wins, 16 losses, 6 draws with a -18 goal difference. Nice value on the road underdog at +250.

Marc Lawrence

Dodgers vs. Giants
Play: Dodgers -121

Edges - Dodgers: Ryu 4-1 last five team starts in this park… Giants: Cain 2-8 last ten team starts in this series; and 5-15 last twenty overall team starts during April… With Ryu off a great spring in which he posted a 2.57 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP to go with 12 K’s and 1 BB, look for him to enter the win column for the first time this season here tonight. We recommend a 1* play on the L.A. Dodgers.

Dustin Hawkins

Royals vs. White Sox
Play: Royals -108

Kansas City is 26-12 against the White Sox over the last 3 seasons.Royals pitcher Jason Vargas is 12-2 against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.The White Sox are 70-95 against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

John Ryan

Rays vs. Orioles
Play: Under 8

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has gone 30-8 ‘under’ hitting 79% winners and has made 21.1 units/unit wagered since 2012. Play ‘under’ with home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (BALTIMORE) team with a poor OBP of 0.320 or less starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing and is now facing a good starting pitcher (WHIP=1.300 to 1.350).

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Baltimore is 44-24 UNDER (+17.3 Units) in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons.

Baltimore is 55-29 UNDER (+22.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.

Baltimore is 39-21 UNDER (+15.6 Units) in home games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.

Rob Vinciletti

Milwaukee vs. Toronto
Play: Under 192.5

Game 4 went under and this one fits a solid 80% totals system that pertains to the under for home favorites of 5 or more off a road spread win with both teams scoring 90 or less last out. Toronto has gone under in 16 of 17 as a favorite off a win vs a team that averages 23 or more assists per game. They have played under in 25 of 33 off a dog win. The Bucks have gone under in 7 of 8. Look for this one to go under tonight.

Larry Ness

Blue Jays at Angels
Pick: Angels

After back-to-back ALCS appearances, the 2017 Blue Jays opened the season 3-12. However, after a 6-2 win on Sunday in Anaheim (Jays scored all run sin the last two innings), they have a chance to win their first series of the season Monday night against the slumping Angels. LA opened the season 6-2 but has since lost 10 of 12 games.

The Angels hope to earn a split of this series with Jesse Chavez (1-3, 5.00 ERA) taking the mound against Francisco Liriano (1-1, 5.11 ER), Liriano had a 'nightmare' of a 2017 debut, allowing five runs on three hits and four walks while retiring just a single batter at Tampa Bay. However, his last two starts have been solid, allowing just two ERs on nine hits over 12 innings (1.50 ERA) with 16 Ks! However, he's 2-6 with a 6.15 ERA over 10 career starts against the Angels (teams are 4-6).

Chavez was scheduled to start Sunday but was used in relief in Friday's 13-inning contest. That hardly went well, as he allowed three runs on four hits and suffered his third consecutive loss. Chavez has had a pair of brief stints with the Blue Jays and in two starts against them is 0-2 with a 4.77 ERA. That one-inning relief stint has hurt Chavez's 2017 numbers but note that in two of his three starts in 2017, he has allowed just one run.

The Angels have averaged 5.11 RPG at home and I'm looking for them to salvage a split in this series by earning a Monday night win.

Will Rogers

Blue Jays at Angels
Pick: Blue Jays

The set-up: The Blue Jays and Angels wrap up their four-game series in Anaheim tonight. The teams split a pair of one-run decisions Friday and Saturday, before the Blue Jays won 6-2 on Sunday, scoring all their runs in the 8th and 9th innings. The 5-13 Blue Jays will now look to capture their first series win of the season in Monday's game against the 8-12 Angels.

The pitching matchup: Francisco Liriano (1-1 & 5.11 ERA ERA) gets the nod for Toronto up against the Angels' Jesse Chavez (1-3 & 5.00 ERA). Liriano's 2017 debut was a disaster, as he retired just one batter at Tampa Bay, while surrendering five runs on three hits and four walks. Somehow, he escaped with a no-decision in that outing. He then allowed two runs and struck out 10 over 6 2/3 innings in a hard-luck loss to Baltimore on April 13, before scattering four hits over 5 1/3 scoreless innings of a victory over Boston on Wednesday. While he's bounced back from that awful debut with two solid starts, he's struggled against the Angels in his career, going 2-6 with a 6.20 ERA in 10 starts (teams are 4-6) and a relief appearance. Chavez was originally slated to face Toronto on Sunday but he pitched one inning of relief in Friday's game (a 13-inning contest), allowing three runs on four hits and suffered his third consecutive loss. He had allowed just one earned run in two of his first three starts but went just 1-1 in those outings. Chavez, who had a pair of brief stints with the Blue Jays, seeks his first career win over them after going 0-4 with an 8.53 ERA in four appearances (two starts / 0-2).

The pick: The Blue Jays have reached the last two AL championship series, so they can't be as bad as their 2017 start. Meanwhile, the Angels have lost 10 of their last 12, after opening 6-2. How can one trust Chavez as a starter plus the team's bullpen running on empty. The relief corps allowed the bulk of the runs Friday in an 8-7, 13-inning loss, was touched for three late runs in a 5-4 win Saturday, then gave up six runs in the last two Toronto at-bats in a 6-2 loss Sunday. Toronto gets that first series win of 2017.

Jim Feist

San Diego at Arizona
Pick: Under

San Diego has a bad offense, #27 in runs scored, #26 in batting average, #28 in on-base percentage. San Diego is 5-2 under the total on the road, 11-5 under away against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Starter Jhoulys Chacin has thrown well, with a pair of starts where he allowed no runs in 14+ combined innings. However, he gets no run support with the Padres scoring 1, 2, 2 and 3 run in his four starts. Arizona has Zack Greinke (3.28 ERA) going, allowing 2 runs or less in three of his four starts. Greinke (1-2) allowed just one run on five hits and a walk in a complete game effort but came away with the loss Wednesday against the Padres, 1-0. He also struck out six. The Under is 7-1 when the Diamondbacks face a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and the under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.

Brandon Lee

Minnesota at Texas
Play: Texas -132

Texas is worth a look here at home against the Twins. The Rangers come in off a 4-game week at home against the Royals, while the Twins have lost 6 of their last 7 and are hitting the road after a lengthy 10-day homestand. I'll take my chances with Texas in this spot, especially given the pitching matchup, which has martin Perez facing off against Phil Hughes. Perez has a 3.60 ERA in 4 starts with a 2.38 in 2 starts at home. Hughes on the other hand owns a 5.40 ERA and 1.400 WHIP in 3 starts and is coming off back-to-back bad outings at Detroit and home against the Indians.

Jimmy Boyd

Rays vs. Orioles
Play: Rays -121

Tampa Bay is showing some great value here with their ace Chris Archer on the mound, who has been sensational to start 2017. He's 2-0 with a 3.20 ERA and the Rays have won all 4 of his starts. Baltimore will counter with Ubaldo Jimenez, who is coming off a rare strong start at Cincinnati, where he allowed just 2 hits over 7 2/3 shutout innings. Even with that start, he's got a 5.51 ERA and 1.470 WHIP in 3 starts. He allowed 5 runs in 4 1/3 innings in each of his first two starts and I just don't trust him in this spot. The Rays offense should score enough here to get the win behind Archer.

Mike Lundin

Minnesota at Texas
Play: Texas -132

The Texas Rangers are coming off a four-game sweep against Kansas City, and I think they'll ride that momentum to another victory when hosting the Minnesota Twins Monday night. The Twins have dropped six of their last seven games and tonight's starting pitcher Phil Hughes (2-1, 5.40 ERA) was knocked around for six runs (four earned) on eight hits in 3 1/3 innings last Tuesday against Cleveland.

The Rangers hand the ball to Martin Perez (1-2, 3.60 ERA) who had been excellent prior to surrendering four runs on seven hits in just 3 2/3 innings of a 9-1 loss at Oakland his last time out. Perez is always solid home at Arlington and note that the Rangers are 12-4 in Perez's last 16 home starts.

Teddy Davis

Dodgers vs. Giants
Play: Giants +140

I know the Giants clearly aren't the team they were supposed to be but in this rivalry just way to big of ML for the Dodgers. Matt Cain isn't what he once was but still can get it done . His ERA is 3.32 this year with a very good home ERA of 1.80 FYI for the Dodgers is 0-3 with an ERA over 5! This is a live dog here tonight