Mike Menase
Royals vs. White Sox
Play:White Sox +104
Vargas has been pitching lights-out in every game so far this season. He's currently 3-0 with a 0.44 ERA. Meanwhile, the White Sox are riding high off of a 6-2 upset win over Cleveland. What gives today?
I really don't like the match-up for Vargas. His win streak is impressive, yes, but he has thus far only faced teams that are abysmal against southpaws. He gave up one run vs Houston in six innings but Houston has a mere .709 ops against lefties compared to .784 against righties. He gave up zero runs in 7.2 innings against Oakland but Oakland's ops is merely .705 vs lefties compared to .744 against righties. He gave up zero in seven against the anemic Giants lineup whose ops is merely .654 against southpaws. The White Sox have not been scoring many runs lately--they scored zero in two games prior to their outburst yesterday. But they do hit lefties well. Their ops is .747 against lefties compared to .540 versus righties. They hit left-handed starters with a .833 ops in 167 at-bats versus right-handed starters with a .507 ops. Vargas' pitching arsenal also makes him very much a finesse pitcher. Against finesse pitchers, the White Sox enjoy a .806 ops compared to .467 versus power-pitchers. I expect Vargas to encounter his first real struggles of the season in Chicago.
The White Sox counter with Miguel Gonzalez. Gonzalez enjoys a range of pitches which do possess more velocity than those of Vargas but not enough to constitute him as a power pitcher. His pitches arrive at the plate at below-average velocity and also uniformly tend to induce fly balls rather than ground balls. The Royals bats tend to struggle most against finesse pitchers, mustering a mere .567 ops against them. They also struggle most against fly ball pitchers, against whom their ops is merely .556. The Royals bats are overall really struggling on the road, where their ops is .572. In their past four road games they have only produced five runs. I expect this cold streak to resume against Gonzalez and an elite bullpen (yes, even if Putnam still isn't out there today) behind him, whose ERA is 1.79 compared to the 4.91 ERA of the Royals bullpen. I don't expect the Royals to score an adequate amount of runs.
The White Sox enjoy the advantage in terms of starting pitching and bullpen. Their lineup is in the better spot match-up wise to keep producing runs at home. The Royals are cold on the road and I expect that to continue today.
Jack Jones
Rays vs. Orioles
Play: Rays -114
The Tampa Bay Rays have a massive edge on the mound tonight over the Baltimore Orioles. As a result, they should be a much bigger favorite tonight and we'll take advantage.
Ace Chris Archer has gone 2-0 with a 3.20 ERA in four starts this season with 27 strikeouts in 25 1/3 innings. The Rays have gone a perfect 4-0 in his four starts this year as he is off to a great start in bouncing back from a rare down season last year.
Ubaldo Jimenez shouldn't even be in Baltimore's rotation. Jimenez went 8-12 with a 5.44 ERA and 1.560 WHIP in 25 starts last season, and he's 1-0 with a 5.51 ERA and 1.469 WHIP in three starts in 2017. Jimenez gave up at least three earned runs in all three of his starts against the Rays last season.
The Rays are 6-0 in Archer's last six starts on four days' rest. Tampa Bay is 5-0 in Archer's last five starts overall. I also think the Orioles could have an emotional letdown in Game 1 of this series after playing an intense series with the Red Sox over the weekend.
Handicappers Hub
Padres vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks -1½
Grienke dominates the Padres overall and has shown some signs of 2014 Grienke so far this year. Even more the Diamondbacks are pounding the baseball, especially at home where they are 8-2 and average 7.4 runs per game! This is a problem for the Pads and Chacin who is 0-2 on the road with a 14.05 ERA so far this season!
Look for the Diamondbacks to score plenty of runs for Grienke tonight and get a massive win easily covering the 1.5
John Martin
Warriors vs. Blazers
Play: Blazers +7
The Portland Trail Blazers are a prideful team who aren't ready for their season to be over yet, and star PG Damian Lillard echoed those thoughts despite the fact that no team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit to win a series. "It's never been done, but I'm not one to quit, and I'm very optimistic," said Lillard, who has averaged 25.7 points in the series, recording a pair of 30-point-plus games. "You feel that frustration in letting (Game 3) slip. We blew the opportunity, but we still have games to play. With a sweep on the line, we've got to have some pride and try to go get this next one, and then go from there, one at a time." The Blazers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. Portland is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on 1 days' rest.
Ray Monohan
Toronto vs. Los Angeles
Play: Toronto +122
The Angels and Blue Jays finish up a four game series on Monday night and the Blue Jays have a lot of value in this one. It's an interesting pitching match up in this one between Francisco Liriano and Jesse Chavez. Although Liriano had a slow start for the Jays he has pitched better in his last two games only giving up two total runs while striking out 16.
On the other side for the Angels is Jesse Chavez who has had all kinds of issues. He has lost in his last three appearances. He made an appearance out of the bullpen last Friday only working one inning and giving up four hits and three runs. He comes into this game not on his normal rest and that will cause him some issues. Some trends to note. Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. American League West. Angels are 2-10 in their last 12 games on grass. Angels are 1-4 in their last 5 home games.
Jesse Schule
Nationals vs. Rockies
Play: Over 12
The Rockies have won six of their last seven overall, sitting 1.5 games clear of Arizona at the top of the NL West. The Nationals come in to this series as winners of seven straight, and they are in first place in the NL East. With two hot teams meeting in a hitter's park, and two below average pitchers on the mound, we should see plenty of scoring in Game 1.
Tyler Anderson will toe the rubber for the Rockies, and he's off to a rough start. Anderson (1-3, 7.32 ERA) allowed five runs on five hits and four walks over five innings in a loss to the Dodgers in his only previous start at Coors Field. The left-hander has given up five home runs over just 19 2/3 innings in four appearances this season.
The Nats will hand the ball to right-hander Jacob Turner, who gets the call up from Triple-A to make a spot start. He's only faced Colorado once in his career, giving up five runs on eight hits and three walks over six innings in a loss. He owns a 6.55 ERA in 26 appearances on the road since 2014.
Doc's Sports
Warriors vs. Blazers
Play: Warriors -7
Golden State has some issues right now. Kevin Durant is ailing (he could be back in the lineup tonight, however). Coach Steve Kerr has a mysterious illness that is keeping him away from the team. I think that amps up the pressure to finish off this series tonight and get a break before the second round of the playoffs. It has to be disheartening for the Blazers to have played so well in Game 3 only to see the Warriors flip a switch and run them off the court with a late flourish. We think that was the last gasp for the Blazers and their offseason starts tomorrow. When the Warriors are motivated they normally play very well and we think their No. 1 priority is to end this series early in a sweep and regroup with some time off and get things back in order for a much tougher second-round opponent. We think there is a great chance this is a 10+ point blowout.
SPORTS WAGERS
CHICAGO +101 over Kansas City
Jason Vargas (LHP) is 3-0 after three starts with an ERA of 0.44. Dude has 23 K’s in 21 innings, an elite 15% swing and miss rate to go along with an also elite 53% groundball rate. There is not a pitcher in baseball that is off to a better start than Jason Vargas. Not surprisingly, the market is all over him today. The White Sox opened as a small favorite but by game time, one can expect the Royals to be a near -120 favorite so our recommendation is to wait until later in the day to make this bet if you are on board. If you prefer Kansas City, the sooner you bet them, the less you’ll have to pay.
The first thing to note here is the total of u7½ -120, which is a Scherzer/Syndergaard like total or damn close to it. That tells us that the conditions for offense are not good today at U.S. Cellular. The low total often means that the game will ultimately be decided by the bullpens and in that regard, give a big edge to the South Side. K.C.’s pen comes into this one with a 4.91 ERA while Chicago’s pen has been outstanding with an ERA of 1.79 in 55.1 innings. Furthermore, the Royals just completed four games in Texas and scored 2, 1, 2 and 0 runs respectively in those four games while going 0-4. You could get a bunch of your friends together and score five runs in four games at that park against that staff.
We also have to question what’s up with Jason Vargas. Here’s a guy that recently had TJS and was on the rack for nearly 15 months. Ya gotta love small samples, no? Vargas has a history of subpar xERA and skills and now his fastball tops off at 86 MPH. It takes some time for hitters to adjust to a pitcher that is throwing differently than they are used to seeing and it won’t be long before they catch up to Vargas. At 34 years of age, don't expect the late-career surge to continue much longer.
Cincinnati -1½ +147 over MILWAUKEE
Amir Garrett (LHP) has struck out 21 batters in 20 innings in 2017, and he has thrown consecutive dominant starts vs. Pittsburgh and Baltimore. His off-speed pitches are creating swings and misses and a high clip (14%) and his ability to find the zone (67% first-pitch strike rate) has limited the free passes. Garrett has walked just three batters and he’ll now face a Brewers lineup that started off on fire but that is getting colder with each passing day.
We could spot a small price here in the pick-em range but in these hitter’s parks, we’re going for the kill because more games are decided by two or more runs and the payoff is so much bigger. The Reds are also playing great ball that few saw coming. Projected to be a 100-game loser this season, Cinci’s offense is outstanding, their defense is also outstanding and if they can get the pitching, they’re going to be difficult to beat. Just as important is that the Reds’ love coming to the park every day and now they’ll get to feast on some weak pitching.
Matt Garza (RHP) makes his first start of the season here. A lateral strain cost him a big chunk of the 1st half last season but he was not missed in the least. Garza played with his pitch mix and boosted his groundball rate a bit but that's just shuffling deck chairs on a doomed ocean liner. There just aren't any plus offerings in his arsenal anymore. His velocity is in a multi-year decline and his secondary stuff is increasingly getting tattooed. This is a bad, bad scene for Garza and we urge you to fade him whenever possible. Why is he pitching? Because the Crew are paying him 12.5M this year and they are going to get something for that money, even if it’s nothing.
We’re also going to bet on Cincinnati team total over 4½ +115.
Washington -1½ +195 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long:
Year to date:
4-3 +7.98 units
SPORTS WAGERS
Milwaukee (1Q) +150 over TORONTO
The key for the Bucks in both their victories so far in this series was getting off to strong starts. In Game 1 in Toronto, Milwaukee led 30-22 after one and went on to win by 14. In Game 3, Milwaukee stormed out to a 20-point first quarter lead and cruised from there. The series is now tied 2-2 and the winner tonight is likely the winner of the series but at the very least, Milwaukee figures to put plenty of emphasis on the first quarter because that’s where they have found success in this series. Toronto has been very good at home all season but they have also struggled out of the gate on numerous occasions, thus often trailing after the first. Once again, we find tremendous value in the first quarter by taking back a pretty sweet price when the point-spread is -2 or just one standard bucket.
PORTLAND (1Q) +165 over Golden State
We’re going to split this up and play the Blazers in the first quarter both on the money line and on the point spread. Therefore, our wagers are as follows:
Portland +2½ -109 in the first quarter (Risking 1.09 units to win 1)
Portland +165 in the first quarter (Risking 1 unit to win 1.65 units)
These first quarter wagers have too much value attached to them to ignore and it’s something we must pay a little more attention to next year and for the remainder of the playoffs. Yesterday, for instance, the Clippers, Pacers and Thunder all lost outright but all three were leading after one. When these two played on Saturday, Portland led 37-30 after one. Last Wednesday, both OKC and Atlanta were underdogs in Houston and Washington respectively and both were leading after the first quarter. The point spread in these wagers is almost always 1½, 2, 2½ or 3 (generally ¼ of the entire game's spread), which is the equivalent of one possession. Tonight, the Warriors are a -2½-point choice in the first quarter but they are -188 on the money line.
The Trail Blazers may get worn down and go out in four straight but we trust they’ll be energized out of the gate, just like in Game 3. The point-spread for the entire game here is -7½ but it’s -2½ in the first quarter, which is more than the general standard of ¼ of the entire game’s spread. The oddsmakers have the data that shows who gets bet the most and we’re pretty sure that Golden State is a hugely popular first quarter bet because of the seemingly small number of points one must spot. What we know for sure is that the number is inflated on the Warriors and if they win and/or cover this price, so be it but we’re going with the best of it by playing one unit on both the money and point-spread.
Jim Feist
Minnesota at Texas
Play: Texas -130
Behind eight strong innings from Yu Darvish and homers from Joey Gallo and Robinson Chirinos, the Rangers picked up a 5-2 triumph over the Kansas City Royals on Sunday to cap the sweep and to win for the sixth time in their last seven home games. Texas starters owns a 3.04 ERA, second in the American League, and the staff as a whole boasts a 3.06 mark in 10 games at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Rangers lefty Martin Perez (1-2, 3.60 ERA) is throwing well and faces the struggling Twins, who have dropped six of their last seven after Sunday's 13-4 loss to the Detroit Tigers at home.
Wunderdog
Cincinnati @ Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee -101
Matt Garza makes his first start of the season for the Brewers after coming off the disabled list, and he did his best pitching at home last season where he had a 3.38 ERA, compared to 5.43 on the road. Milwaukee has won six of Garza's last eight home starts and 15 of its last 20 home contests against left-handed starters. Cincinnati has lost four of its last five games overall and three of four to the Brewers earlier this month when the Brewers scored 24 runs in the four games. Amir Garrett will be making his fourth start for the Reds after coming out on the short end of a 2-0 loss to Baltimore on Wednesday. Look for Milwaukee to bounce back with a home win in this matchup.
Zack Cimini
Milwaukee vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto
Heading back home the Raptors have a chance to regain control of a series that looked to be in a dire situation after game three. While their offense remains an issue they've found a way to increase their defense. Limiting the Bucks further figures to be an opportune spot Monday as the Raptors have been a juggernaut at home. That's created value tonight as bettors have seen the Bucks upset the Raptors in game one and also cover in game two. Grab the Raptors to showcase a two-year home ATS advantage that's fallen in value recently.
Dave Price
Dodgers vs. Giants
Play: Giants +140
The San Francisco Giants desperately need a victory to stop the bleeding. They have lost 4 straight and 6 of their last 7 to fall to 6-13 on the season. They'll be hungry for a victory tonight as they welcome their hated rivals in the Los Angeles Dodgers to AT&T Park. The Dodgers are just 3-6 on the road this season and scoring 3.7 runs per game. Matt Cain has gone 1-0 with a 3.31 ERA in 3 starts this year, including 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his lone home start. Hyun-Jin Ryu is 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA in 3 starts this season for the Dodgers and getting too much respect here. Ryu has given up 7 earned runs in 7 innings in his last 2 starts against the Giants. Cain sports a 3.57 ERA in 31 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles. The Dodgers are 0-6 in Ryu's last 6 starts. The Giants are 16-4 in their last 20 home meetings with the Dodgers.
Black Widow
Royals vs. White Sox
Play: Royals -110
Bets on all favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (Kansas City), a cold hitting team batting .200 or worse over thier last five games, starting a pitcher who has walked one or fewer batters in each of his last two outings are 106-35 (75.2%, +57.8 units) over the last five seasons. Jason Vargas is 3-0 with a 0.44 ERA this season and I'll back him to get the job done against the White Sox tonight.
Rob Veno
San Diego at Arizona
Play: Arizona -160
Expecting a reversal of fortunes for San Diego’s Jhoulys Chacin who just five days beat Arizona 1-0 at home. Chacin attributes his success in that contest to using the entirety of his pitching repertoire but examination of his first four starts this season indicates it may be due more to Petco Park. Petco has been renovated to try to improve offense but it’s still favorable to pitchers and in his pair of home starts, Chacin has yet to allow an earned run. He’s thrown an extremely impressive 14.1 innings of shutout ball against the strong offenses of Arizona and the Los Angeles Dodgers. His WHIP in those two games is 0.55, K:BB ratio is 5-1 and his pitches per inning average is an outstanding 13.36. However, Chacin’s pair of road starts have been the polar opposite as he’s exited the mound after only 5 full and 3.1 innings pitched. Those contests were at Atlanta and at LA who combined to get 26 baserunners in those 8.1 (3.1 per inning).
Those numbers spell disaster in Chase Field as Diamondbacks own MLB’s top ranked home offense by a runaway margin. In their 10 home games this season, Arizona is first in runs scored (74), BA .316, OBP .376 , SLG .534 and OPS .910 which is 115 percentage points higher than Tampa Bay’s no. 2 mark of .795. Add in the fact that Arizona is also in the top 3 in all of those same categories against right-handed pitching and it’s easy to see the difficulties Chacin figures to have tonight.
San Diego’s miniscule offensive capabilities have really come to light over their past 12 games where they have recorded a game OBP of .265 or less nine times. Overall they are hitting just .213 on the season with a .281 OBP. Facing Zack Greinke was problematic for them last week and some of the hitter friendly venue tonight may be erased by Greinke’s home improvement thus far. It is obviously early but the veteran has performed far better in his two starts here as evidence by the 2.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP he has posted. A continuation of that statistical ascension seems likely for Greinke against this Padres offense.
Normally I’d vie for the run line option in a game with a steep price tag like this one but Arizona’s bullpen is still not a trustworthy unit and there is the possibility that they could be shy on quality depth if Archie Bradley is moved from bullpen to rotation due to starter Shelby Miller’s injury. Expect Arizona behind Greinke to win easily tonight.