DAVE COKIN
CARDINALS @ DIAMONDBACKS
PLAT: CARDINALS +115
There’s a dynamite duel on the board tonight, with Jaime Garcia and Zack Greinke locking up as the Cardinals open a series against the Diamondbacks.
Garcia is a terrific pitcher who’s biggest problem over the years has been staying healthy. But when he’s able to go, the southpaw is tough as nails. As for Greinke, he’s the spotlight guy for the Diamondbacks and following a shaky start to the season, the veteran righty is starting to get it together.
This one is all about the check marks for me, and most of those are on the St. Louis side. First off, for whatever reason, the Snakes are simply not winning at home. Arizona has won only three of ten when wearing the whites, while the Redbirds have managed to forge a winning record on the road in the early going.
The Diamondbacks have put up some big numbers against lefties in this ballpark. But the Cardinals have been even more productive against righties on the road so far. Note that these are all obviously small samples as the season is only a few weeks old, but the current data does indeed indicate the Cardinals.
One are where I’m not as comfortable is with the bullpen. There’s no question at all that St. Louis has the better relief corps. I don’t think it’s particularly close on that count. But that advantage might not be as defined tonight. I know that sounds strange considering that it was Arizona that ended up using the entire pen in that Sunday marathon with the Pirates. But the key guys for Arizona actually weren’t particularly extended and should be available tonight. I’m not sure Trevor Rosenthal will be given the green light after a very lengthy 34-pitch save yesterday at San Diego.
The bottom line here is that my starting pitcher ratings here are very close. I have Greinke a few digits ahead of Garcia overall, but current form favors Garcia and it doesn’t hurt that he’s lived facing the Diamondbacks in the past. For that matter, this series has been extremely lopsided for some time, with the Redbirds in command. Even with the aforementioned minor bullpen concern, I have the Cardinals as the small chalk on my scorecard. With Arizona the small favorite on the betting line, I’ll be looking at the Cardinals as the side tonight.
Sleepyj
Clippers -140
I'll stick with the Clippers in this one...Sure the Trailblazers looked good in the first game at home, but it was expected...The energy will now be with the Clippers tonight...Nothing has changed in my mind that the Clippers are way in front of Portland here..Clippers would like to get this series over ASAP....I can see a big effort out of Portland, but the matchups will be won by the Clips.
Miami + 3....I'm sure most will be on the Miami bandwagon for this game..In the end I still think Miami wins this game by a few pts..Charlotte doesn't have what it takes to over power Miami if they bring some very strong defense..Miami should grab this one today.
OKC/Dallas UN 205....OKC wants to put this game to bed and the Mavs need to slow down OKC as much as they can..It won't be easy, but f the Mavs defense steps up they can limit the amount of points that OKC scores..If the Mavs don't shoot very well, they might struggle to even crack 95.....205 looks like a good number, but I think it's a tad over inflated here...I can see a 104-93 type of game.
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the Ducks over the Predators in the NHL.
It took a little while, and it gave some Ducks fans pause, but Anaheim has righted their ship.
The higher-seeded Ducks were swept at home last week to open the series, but they came back to win a pair in Smashville, and then the home team finally won a series game on Saturday when the Ducks busted open a scoreless game with about 5 minutes to go in the second period, outscoring the Predators by a 5-2 count.
Have to believe Nashville - even on their home ice - is a beaten team.
Eventually the cream rise to the top, and it sure looks to me like Anaheim has a little too much for the Wild Card Predators to handle.
Laying the small juice with the Ducks to advance here in Game 6.
5* ANAHEIM
Rob Vinciletti
Marlins vs. Dodgers
Play: Dodgers -139
The Dodgers are the beneficiary od a solid 90# system today that plays on home favorites off a road win and scored 10 or more runs vs a team like the Marlins that are off a road favored win. The Dodgers have won 3 of 4 vs left handers and will see Miami lefty W.Chen who is 0-3 with an Eras near 5. Bright young rookie Stripling makes the start for LA and he has a solid 2.65 Era in 3 starts. Miami has lost 11 of 15 vs right handers. We will back the Dodgers here.
Marc Lawrence
Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Play: Baltimore +120
Edges - Orioles: Kevin Gausman 5-2 last seven overall team starts; and park. Rays: Chris Archer 0-3 with 9.73 ERA career team starts in this series; and 0-4 with 7.23 ERA and 2.09 WHIP this season. With the Orioles 7-4 the last eleven games in this park and Archer in struggling form, we recommend a 1* play on Baltimore.
Scott Spreitzer
Cleveland at Minnesota
Play: Cleveland -147
Minnesota enters the new week on another losing streak, this time, three games and counting. The Twins have allowed the third most runs in the AL and with Tommy Milone on the hill, we believe they'll have a tough time again. Milone allows too much contact, simply put. He's also allowed 10 earned runs and four home runs in just 15 1/3 IP this season, along with a .288 BAA. And in his last 16 appearances (15 starts) at Target Field, the righty has been tagged for 44 earned runs and 119 base runners in 77 IP. That's a hefty 5.14 ERA & 1.55 WHIP, while striking out just 51 batters. Cleveland counters with red-hot Danny Salazar, who has posted a 1.47 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and .129 BAA in his first three starts of the season. Salazar has allowed just one homer, while punching out 23 batters in 18 1/3 IP, and he's slammed the door on the Twins in seven starts against them since the start of the 2013 season. The Tribe enters on a 9-2 run on the road when Salazar starts against teams with a losing record, while the Twins have won just six of their last 26 against teams with a winning mark.
Bob Harvey
Dallas vs. Oklahoma City
Play: Oklahoma City -14
The Oklahoma City Thunder attempt to close out their first-round series against the Dallas Mavericks when the two teams meet tonight in OKC. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 PM ET atChesapeake Energy Arena.
The Mavericks (43-43, 46-39 ATS) got a gutsy effort from Dirk Nowitzki in Saturday’s loss. Nowitzki, who is playing with a bruised knee, had 27 points and eight rebounds in Game 4. Raymond Felton added 19 points and 11 assists.
The Thunder (58-28, 40-45 ATS) will have Kevin Durant in the lineup despite his flagrant 2 foul that got him ejected late in Saturday's 119-108 victory in Dallas. He avoided a suspension but did receive a small fine from the league. Russell Westbrook is also lighter in the wallet after being hit with a $25,000 dollar fine for inappropriate language toward a fan. The verbal altercation aside, Westbrook had a solid night with 25 points and 15 assists giving him his fourth straight double-double in the series. Westbrook scored 22 of Oklahoma City's 32 third-quarter points.
The Thunder are 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings and 6-2 ATS. The Mavericks are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings but are 20-8-1 ATS in the past 29 in Oklahoma City.
The UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in the Sooner State while Dallas is 6-1 to the low side in its last seven road games.
Mike Lundin
Cleveland at Minnesota
Play: Cleveland -147
The Minnesota Twins have lost five of their past six games and own the worst record in the American League at 5-14. They're in serious trouble tonight with a depleted bullpen after a 16th-inning 6-5 loss at Washington yesterday and I like the Cleveland Indians to win the opener of a three-game set at Minny.
The Tribe send Danny Salazar (2-1, 1.47 ERA) to the mound and the 26 year old has had an excellent start to the year. He has allowed just three runs on eight hits and nine walks through 18 1/3 innings of work and his 0.93 WHIP is an impressive one. He has a 5-2 career mark against the Twins and held them to six runs with 25 Ks in 19 innings last year.
The Twins turn to left-hander Tommy Milone (0-1, 5.87) who has been roughed up in all his three starts this season, giving up four runs in each while never making it past the sixth inning. He won both outings versus Cleveland last season but he has a .305 BAA versus the current members of the Tribe. Jason Kipnis is 6-for-15 in previous meetings with Milone and Cleveland has come alive offensively lately with 16 runs and 26 hits in its last two games.
Cleveland is aiming for a fifth consecutive win on the road and the team is 9-2 in Salazar's last 11 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Martin Griffiths
West Bromwich Albion vs. Tottenham Hotspur
Play: Tottenham Hotspur -2 +110
Tottenham are flying at the moment and must win tonight to maintain their push for the title and in West Bromwich Albion they face an opposition that they should beat.
Tottenham are unbeaten in their last six Premier League matches while West Brom have won just once in their last six and none in their last five, quite a lopsided affair this.
The spread has been set at 2 goals and that is quite high, but this Tottenham team can overcome that, they won their last game 4-0 at Stoke City and won both their last two home games 3-0 and I have not seen anything in recent weeks from West Brom that tells me they can stop the Tottenham juggernaut.
I am confident that Tottenham will win this game and win it easy
John Ryan
Nashville at Anaheim
Play: Nashville +100
Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. At home Nashville is 19-16-2 straight up against Anaheim since 1996. Nashville is a solid 46-21 (+20.9 Units) when they score 3 goals over the last 3 seasons; 133-83 (+33.3 Units) revenging a road loss versus opponent since 1996; 217-176 (+399.1 Units) when they get 27 to 31 shots on goal since 1996.
Larry Ness
St Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks
I believe Greinke’s early struggles are behind him, allowing three ERs over 14 innings in his L2 starts...
Zack Greinke had a remarkable 2015 season, finishing 19-3 with a 1.66 ERA and 0.84 WHIP, while opponents hit only .187 against him. He allowed just 148 hits in 222.2 innings last year, with a KW ratio of 200-40. Greinke decided to leave the Dodgers for the ‘greener pastures’ of Arizona beginning in 2016 but the free agent’s D-backs career got off to a VERY shaky start with a whopping 9.90 ERA after his first two starts. However, he's rebounded by allowing three ERs with 12 strikeouts and just three walks in 14 innings over his last two.
The 10-10 D’backs open a a four-game home series with the StL Cards Monday night, who come in 10-8, after opening 0-3. Jaime Garcia (1-1, 2.70 ERA) gets the start for the Cards, coming off last Tuesday’s 2-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs. The left-hander allowed two runs with seven strikeouts and four walks in five innings but got just one run of support in that contest. Talking about his outing against the Cubs, Garcia said, "It's not what I want to do. Way too short and I've got to do a better job than that next time."
That next time is tonight and the good news is, Garcia has been OUTSTANDING in five career starts against Arizona, winning each time while posting a 2.51 ERA (3-0, 1.62 ERA at Chase Field). However, Greinke has done little wrong over his last nine starts (including three in the playoffs) against St Louis, going 5-1 (team was 6-3) with a 1.93 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. I’ll argue that Greinke’s early struggles are behind and will add that early struggles have been relatively rare for the three-time All-Star, who entered this season with a 22-8 record and 2.26 ERA in 43 April outings.
The Cards have won 13 of the last 14 matchups with the D’backs (including five straight at Chase Field) but I’m backing Greinke in this one.
Power Sports
Houston vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle
As if Houston wasn't already playing poorly, this is a terrible spot to boot as they are coming off a marathon loss (to Boston) Sunday night. Having to make the quick trip out to Seattle does them no favors here, especially because they'll be running into a red-hot starter in Taijuan Walker. Go with the M's here.
I went against the Astros last night. I said they were mispriced and ended up with a nice winner on Boston, who was +125 on the money line. While it's a new series and a new opponent, much of yday's analysis still applies here. It's been a really disappointing start to the season for the 'Stros, who are now 6-13 w/ a -20 run differential. Among American League teams, only Minnesota has been worse. The bullpen, a real strength last year, has been a total dumpster fire so far in 2016. Closer Ken Giles, who gave up the go-ahead run in the 12th inning last night, has really struggled.
Seattle is coming off a winning series (took two of three from the Angels) and has won four of five overall. Tonight, they send Taijuan Walker to the hill. Walker has a 1.50 ERA and 0.944 WHIP through three starts, all of them quality, and allowed only one unearned run (as well as just three hits) his last time out. With six strikeouts and no walks Wednesday in Cleveland, Walker's KW ratio for the year improved to 14-2. He'll give his team a significant advantage tonight as Houston has to turn to Doug Fister, who has a 5.94 ERA and 1.380 WHIP in his three starts.
Jim Feist
St. Louis at Arizona
Pick: Under
The St Louis Cardinals are not the favorite to win the NL Central this year. For the first time in many years, it's the Chicago Cubs who hold that opinion. And, thus far, it's well founded as the Cubs are 14-5 to start the season and 3 1/2 games ahead of second place St Louis. The Cardinals won a high scoring match with the Padres on Sunday, 8-5. Jaime Garcia starts today for the red birds. Garcia is 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA and nice 0.90 WHIP. Meanwhile, Arizona is finally playing much as expected, winning seven of their last nine games. Zack Greinke was the club's big offseason acquisition. However, Greinke is just 1-2 on the season with a 5.25 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. After a start that saw the former Cy-Young winner allow 11 runs in his first 10 innings, Greinke has now allowed just three runs over his last 14 innings. Grienke returns home tonight where he is 0-2 and looking for that first home win. Now that the veteran appears to have shaken off the cob webs, he's in fine form. Both these pitchers are in mid-season form and I expect a low scoring game here tonight.
Brad Wilton
Comp play for Monday night is Under in the Clippers-Blazers contest.
It's Game 4 tonight up in Rip City as the Blazers look to head back to Los Angeles all tied up at 2. I expect another lower-scoring affair between the teams, as the first three played thus far have all held Under the posted price.
Overall series numbers show 6 of the past 7 Under, and 8 of the last 10 overall between the teams having held Under the posted price!
Thus far in the postseason, there have been 30 games played, and 20 of the 30 have stayed Under the total.
Baskets are tougher to net this time of year, and tonight is no different.
Play the Clippers-Blazers to hold Under the total.
3* L.A. CLIPPERS-PORTLAND UNDER
Teddy Davis
Pirates vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies -110
The Rockies are a great price to take here against the Pirates who are coming off a win in 13 innings last night @ Arizona. The Pirates are sending Locke to the mound who has been absolutely terrible to start the season. In his 3 games he has an ERA of 7.24, has allowed 11 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings and has walked 13 batters. Bettis for the Rockies on the other hand has been very impressive including a dominating performance against the Cubs two games back going 6 innings and giving up 0 runs. Colorado will also be motivated here letting the Dodgers come back from a 3 deficit in the 9th inning yesterday.