Free Picks for Monday, April 3rd, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
NORTH CAROLINA VS GONZAGA
PLAY: NORTH CAROLINA -1.5
With a handful of minutes remaining in the North Carolina-Oregon game, I went on Twitter and Facebook and noted that if UNC held on to win the game, my line for the Monday title game would be North Carolina -1.5. That’s where the line is at most outlets as I’m writing this. Suffice to say I think the line is precisely where I think it should be, and that pretty much leaves me with little more than a guess for this game.
I will side with the chalk side, and I’m really doing so for only one reason. That’s title game experience. All the key Tar Heels are familiar with the unique pressure of this game, and they also have the opportunity to erase the painful memory of last year’s heartbreaker of a loss to Villanova.
That’s not enough for me to go full bore with a strong play, but it’s enough for me to risk a half unit on North Carolina.
Ray Monohan
Kansas City at Minnesota
Play: Kansas City -110
This play just missed out on our premium card. Baseball season is upon us and the Royals open up their season against the Minnesota Twins. Over the last few years the Royals and Danny Duffy (Royals starting pitcher) have been dominant over the Twins.
The Twins will send Ervin Santana to the mound, but I don't think they will score enough runs to compete in this game. Some trends to note. Royals are 4-1 in Duffys last 5 road starts vs. Twins. Royals are 9-2 in Duffys last 11 starts vs. Twins. Twins are 8-23 in Santanas last 31 starts.
The Royals are the better team and that will show on Monday afternoon.
Rob Vinciletti
Pirates vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -158
The MLB Com play for Monday is on Boston at 2:05 eastern. Boston has won 10 of the last 12 openers and has Cy Young winner Rick Porcello making the start. The Sox were 15-1 here last season in his starts and he has won 8 of his last 9 home starts in April. G. Cole for the Pirates was limited in Spring training and may not be in here for long. Game 1 American League home favorites are 25-6 in this line range since 2004. The Pirates lost 3 times to Boston in spring training. With the Redsox 14-2 the last 16 at home vs National League teams we will back them today.
Matt Josephs
Tigers vs. White Sox
Play: Tigers -116
Justin Verlander gets the call for the Tigers against the watered down White Sox. Chicago has not hidden the fact that this is a rebuilding year and may be the first of a few coming up. Verlander has been very good this Spring and has a 3.97 ERA in 39 career starts against the Sox. Over his last three starts against Chicago he has allowed just six runs and 16 hits striking out 28 while walking two. Melky Cabrera (7-36) and Todd Frazier (3-12) have struggled with the righty. Jose Quintana gets the call for the home team and who knows how many starts he'll have for them before he's dealt as well. The Tigers have one more run in them before they could be sellers. The southpaw has a 4.08 ERA in 17 starts against Detroit. Miguel Cabrera (15-43), Ian Kinsler (14-47), Victor Martinez (17-39) and Justin Upton (5-14) have great numbers against him. The Tigers have the edge all around so I'm surprised at the short number. I'll take it though on the road.
Jimmy Boyd
Rockies vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers +112
I really like the value here with Milwaukee as an underdog at home in their season opener. The Brewers aren't getting any respect going into 2017 and that's a direct result of being in the same division as the Cubs, Cardinals and Pirates. I don't think Milwaukee is a playoff team, but they are better than people think and shouldn't be a dog at home to another equally poor team in the Rockies. I also don't think people are familiar enough with Brewers starter Junior Guerra, who didn't even make the majors until late last season. He posted a 2.81 ERA in 20 starts with a 2.23 ERA at home.
Colorado counters with Jon Gray, who is a special young talent, but he's still a work in progress. He had to leave his last spring training start with a toe injury and while he says he's healthy it's definitely something that can throw him off his game. The Rockies are also minus three starters in Ian Desmond, David Dahl and Tom Murphy. Take Milwaukee!
Teddy Davis
Detroit vs. Chicago
Play: Chicago+114
At this stage in his career does Verlander really deserve to be favored here? Yes, he is still a good pitcher, but Jose Quintana is no slouch by any means. Quintana has won his last three starts against the Tigers and is also a different animal when he pitches at home. Last year his ERA at home was 2.77. It's also worth noting that playing division home dogs does have success as we witnessed yesterday all 3 home dogs were outright winners
Brad Wilton
Comp play for Monday is the Phillies and Reds to do what they usually do when they meet, and that is to play Over the total in the opener at Great American Ball Park.
These teams are 12-5 Over the total the last 17 times they have faced one another, and with Jeremy Hellickson and Scott Feldman listed as your Opening Day starters, I expect the bats on both teams to be making some noise this afternoon.
Hellickson sported a 3.71 ERA for the season last year, while Feldman's ERA was a little closer to 4 at 3.97 for the season.
The weather will be surprisingly nice in the Queen City today, and everyone knows this park is a hitters park, so look for the hitters to do their thing and put up plenty of crooked-digit innings today.
Phils-Reds Over the total.
3* PHILADELPHIA-CINCINNATI OVER
Mike Anthony
Colorado vs. Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee -102
The Rockies struggled on the road last year, posting a 33-48 record away from Coors. They won just one of six games against the Brewers, a team that finished 73-89 in the standings. Jon Gray, Monday's starter for Colorado, pitched much worse away from home last year, if you can believe it. Junior Guerra was fantastic in Milwaukee last season, posting a .598 OPS against. The odds have this as an even matchup, but we should give the edge to the Brewers.
Marc Lawrence
Cleveland vs. Texas
Pick: Texas -107
Edges - Rangers: Yu Darvish 14-2 career tem starts during April… Indians: Corey Kluber 4-13 career team starts during April, including 2-8 away. With Darvish having posted a splendid 2.84 ERA this spring, we recommend a 1* play on Texas.
Big Al
Colorado vs. Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee +105
Some MLB teams had some rough times in the off-season (KC comes to mine), but none more so than the Colorado Rockies. Their one big free-agent signing - 1B/OF Ian Desmond - had his hand broken by a Spring training pitch and will likely miss at least the first month of the season. And one of their brightest young players - OF David Dahl - has been nursing a stress reaction in his ribs that has been slow to heal and will take him out of consideration for an Opening Day start. And finally, RHP Chad Bettis - who has been one of the Rockies most consistent starters over the past two seasons - has been diagnosed with testicular cancer and does not have a timetable for a return to baseball. With the exception of a few marquee players - Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzales, Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story - this was not a good team before these problems occurred and they're certainly not looking good right now. Of course, nobody is predicting a Pennant for the Brewers either, but at least this team is healthy and could do some damage with a roster of mostly young talent. RHP Junior Guerra came on the scene last year as a 32-year-old rookie, and if that doesn't sound promising, consider the fact that Guerra went 9-3 with a 2.81 ERA in 20 starts, earning him this opening day start. Milwaukee won all three home meetings with the Rox last season.
Wunderdog
Seattle vs. Houston
Pick: Houston -144
The Mariners were on the cusp a year ago, and went out and changed a lot of faces to help improve the club. There is a lot of power on this team as they slugged 223 HRs a year ago, but pitching is often the bottom line. This is ace Felix Hernandez's 13th year in Seattle, and most of the first 12 have seen him finish one game over .500 or less in seven of them. Dallas Keuchel had a tough season in 2016, and was finally shut down in September with an ailing shoulder. Keuchel is healthy again, and that means trouble for opponents as when he is on, he is a top five pitcher in the league. Like the Mariners, the Astros reinforced their lineup. And with Beltran and McCann added to the mix, this team is a lot more balanced, and deeper.
Eric Schroeder
My free play for tonight is on the Oakland Athletics over the Angels, from Anaheim, in American League action. I don't want you listing pitchers, either. It's not necessary.
Both teams enter 2017 after losing seasons in 2016, but both have some promise for this season. But even though the Halos bring reigning AL MVP Mike Trout, I'm not convinced they're ready to make a run this year.
Oakland's campaign will be centered around young players with talent and how their improvement progresses. With the right attitude, fueled by high expectations, I'm banking on the A's to be improved from last year.
The A's know how they open the season will set the tone. And since they have lost 11 of their last 12 openers and are 5-18 in the first game of the season dating back to 1994, I'm going to bank on them to get this season underway much better.
1* ATHLETICS
Jack Brayman
Let's roll with an early freebie, as I like the Boston Red Sox on the Run Line over the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Though pitchers are automatically listed when making Run Line wagers, I am insisting you DO NOT worry about who the scheduled starters are. In the event of a scratch, you MUST re-wager the game with the new pitcher(s) who are scheduled. This play will stand no matter who pitches for either team.
That said, I will tell you that I don't mind the fact we're facing Pittsburgh-ace Gerrit Cole, who will make his first Opening Day start and first career appearance at Fenway Park. This could be a rough one for him, as I do believe he could get chased early.
The reason I don't insist on pitchers is if I think the Bucs ace will struggle against the Red Sox lineup, then anyone else certainly would.
Boston is favored by some to win the American League pennant, which means welcome to the 2017 campaign for the home crowd. The Red Sox will put on an offensive display here, and should open things up.
Play Red Sox Run Line today.
2* RED SOX -1.5
John Martin
Blazers vs. Wolves
Play: Over 217
Expect a lot of fireworks offensively tonight between the Blazers and Timberwolves. The Blazers are really clicking on offense, scoring at least 110 points in eight of their last 10 games overall. The Timberwolves are getting shredded defensively, giving up at least 100 points in 12 consecutive games. The OVER is 8-1-1 in Minnesota's last 10 games overall. The Timberwolves have scored at least 100 points in nine of their last 10 games, including 115 or more in four of their last five. The OVER is 11-4 in Timberwolves last 15 home games. The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Minnesota.