Brandon Lee
Tigers vs. White Sox
Play: Tigers -120
It wasn't that long ago that Verlander was on the same level as we regard Kershaw now. He took a big step in returning to that form last year, in what many believe, including myself, should have resulted in him winning the AL Cy Young. I know he's had his struggles on Opening Day, but I don't care. This is simply too good of a price on one of the games best starters to pass up. Not to mention he's facing a White Sox team that is in a major rebuilding phase and figures to be one of the worst teams in all of baseball. Chicago is getting respect here because of starter Jose Quintana taking the mound, but he's got just a 4.08 ERA in his career against the Tigers and has really struggled against some of Detroit's best hitters.
Brad Diamond
Phillies vs. Reds
Play: Reds -108
When the Reds and Phillies open in Cincinnati this afternoon they will do so knowing they averaged just 69 wins in the last three seasons. Both clubs have finished 4th or 5th in their divisions during that time span. No matter, each franchise has a reconstruction and development plan in place to generate a new winning attitude. The Reds open today with acquired RHP Feldman who was targeted for the middle of the rotation but, recent injuries to Bailey and DeSclafani have changed that mindset, and have vaulted the right-hander into the opener. Feldman has started opening day 2010 and 2014 in prior relationships. He is 1-0 with a 1.98 in those starts. The Phillies bring Hellickson (12-10, 3.71) to the mound with the hope the youngster will garner an up-tick in his pitch location, staying away from the home run ball and reducing walks per nine innings. From the hitting standpoint, the Phillies have suffered over the last few years but, hope newly acquired vets Kendrick and Saunders can generate an increase in run production. In this longtime series, the Reds have won 11-of-12 at home vs. Philadelphia, while the Phillies bring a 0-8 record on the road against RHP. When you consider the Phillies historically have problems vs. the NL Central (18-39) we'll back the home unit to survive.
Jack Jones
Blazers vs. Wolves
Play: Blazers +2
The Portland Trail Blazers (38-38) are two games ahead of the Denver Nuggets for the West's final postseason spot. They have put themselves in this position by playing their best basketball of the season over the past month.
Indeed, the Blazers are 14-3 SU & 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games overall, including a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six contests. These games haven't even been close as their last eight wins have all come by 9 points or more. This team is hitting on all cylinders at the right time.
The Minnesota Timberwolves (30-45) appear to just be going through the motions right now. They are 2-7 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. They are coming off a 117-123 home loss to the Kings as 12.5-point favorites. They should not be favored in this matchup tonight.
The Blazers are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Timberwolves. Portland is 12-2 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive home wins over the past three seasons. The Blazers are 35-15-1 ATS in the last 51 meetings, including 19-7 ATS in their last 26 meetings in Minnesota.
SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia +104 over CINCINNATI
Scott Feldman pitched for two teams last season, the Astros and Blue Jays and appeared in a combined 40 games. However, 35 of those appearances came in relief and just five were as a starter. Feldman is used to being a starter. He’s been in the big leagues since 2005 and has made 183 starts in 321 appearances covering over 1200 innings. Here’s where it gets a little foggy though. Feldman now goes from being a fourth or fifth starter or long relief man to the opening day starter and that’s an entirely different role with different expectations. Guys like Chris Archer, Clayton Kershaw and Noah Syndergaard start on opening day while guys like Scott Feldman start when another starter goes on the DL. With others serving as the anchors of the rotation no matter where he’s pitched his entire career up to this point, Feldman didn’t need to be a flame-throwing stud. Eating innings while posting respectable numbers always did the trick for him but he had difficulty even doing that. He now goes from innings eater/spot starter to the opening day starter for a weak baseball team. We’ve never been terribly enamored with the starting pitching version of Scott Feldman because his xERA column tells us not to expect another sub-4.00 ERA ever again thus our interest level in him remains unchanged. If Feldman starting on Opening Day changes your opinion about the 2017 Reds, you weren’t paying attention. The front office never planned for the team to be competitive this season. CEO Bob Castellini has publicly stated that 2018 was the target for making the Reds “truly competitive.” Realistically it might take the team at least one more year beyond that.
This season represents the end of the beginning for the Phillies. Incremental improvements should finally start to show up in the product on the field. The cream of the prospect crop is rising, led by #4 overall prospect, shortstop J.P. Crawford. They even picked up a few genuine major league-quality players in the offseason, bolstering the outfield with Michael Saunders and Howie Kendrick and the pitching staff with Pat Neshek, Clay Buchholz, and Joaquin Benoit. They aren’t at the point where they’re likely to seriously threaten the Nationals and Mets in the NL East, but the really bad days should be over now. There’s even enough here that you can squint and see the outlines of a Wild Card contender if absolutely everything breaks right, though probably not until 2018 or 2019.
After three consecutive seasons with an ERA of 4.52 or higher, Jeremy Hellickson re-emerged with a 3.71 ERA in 189 IP in 2016. What was behind the resurgence? Adjustments were a big part of it. Right-handed batters had feasted on Hellickson in recent years, but he made significant strides against them in 2016. The decision to throw his excellent change-up more often (+7% usage vs. RHB) paid huge dividends (swing and miss rate of 28% overall; 33% vs. RHB in 2016). Home runs have been a problem for him over the years, so the reduction of fly-balls since 2014 was a welcomed sight. Hellickson, who had struggled in recent years, became a roughly league-average pitcher in 2016. The adjustments he made to his pitch mix, scaling back usage of his 90 mph four-seam fastball by 18% in favor of more sinkers, change-ups and cutters have worked well so far. The 30-year-old isn’t going to wow anyone but he’s becoming a season vet with upside and at least in this matchup we get the much better team and pitcher plus a tag, which is a wager we would make 99% of the time.
Pass NCAAB
Jim Feist
Canadiens at Panthers
Pick: Under
Both teams prefer a slower pace, focusing on defense. Montreal is on a 15-6-6 run under the total, 13-4-5 under against the Eastern Conference. The Under is 9-2-5 in the Canadiens last 16 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Florida is #23 in the NHL in goals scored, #25 on the power play. And the Under is 27-13-13 in the last 53 meetings.
Buster Sports
Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics
Play: Oakland Athletics +105
The MLB season is upon us and we have a small underdog freeplay today. The Angels open up in Oakland tonight and they send RH Ricky Nolasco (2016: 8-14, 4.42 ERA) to the hill and he faces the Athletics RH Kendall Graveman (2016: 10-11, 4.11 ERA). We will be going with the home club as we see Graveman having a good year for the A's. The Right hander had a nice spring going 2-1 with a 2.29 ERA in 19 innings and this will be his first ever opening day start. Nolasco is an old vet and he will be making his fourth Opening Day start of his career. Nolasco was 1-1 with a 3.52 ERA in 15 innings during the spring and although he ended the season strong, Nolasco is on the back end of a great career. The last time Graveman faced the Angels at home he held them to 1 run over 7 innings. Oakland looks like they will be in for another rough year but we see them giving their fans something to cheer about tonight.
Mike Rose
Cleveland Indians at Texas Rangers
Play: Cleveland Indians -105
Yu Darvish got a late start to last season. He made his first start on May 28 and was almost immediately shut down for over a month. From there he went on to make 15 starts including the ugly loss to Toronto in the playoffs. As good as he was all season, he proved to be very hittable in Arlington where his ERA ballooned to 4.26 and WHIP to 1.23. Three of his L/4 home starts were of the non-quality variety, so this outing might is by no means a slam dunk!
Kluber was simply brilliant in his lone Globe Life Park appearance last season throwing six innings of 1 ER ball while striking out seven and walking a pair. Though Texas went 53-28 at home last season, I’m simply not a believer in this club. With Adrian Beltre on the DL due to a sore calf and Cleveland also having its stud on the bump backed by the better bullpen, I’m all in on the defending AL champs to get in the win column on Opening Day.
Harry Bondi
HOUSTON (-135) over Seattle
We made a lot of money last season fading the Mariners against left-handed starters and it paid off as they went 24-34 (-12.5 units) vs. southpaws, averaging just 4.1 runs per game. We’ll continue to ride that trend here today as they face one of the better lefties in the AL in Dallas Keuchel, who pitched very well vs.Seattle in two starts in 2016. Meanwhile, King Felix is on the decline after carrying the Seattle rotation for nearly a decade. The Mariners have lost their last three games vs. Houston when Hernandez gets the starting nod and overall Houston has won 13 of the last 20 meeting between these two teams on this field. Astros get the home opening win!