DAVE COKIN
ASTROS AT YANKEES
PLAY: ASTROS -125
It’s generally not a great idea to read too much into exhibition season statistics. But one exception to that rule is when one of the game’s established best pitchers puts together some utterly spectacular numbers.
That’s the case today as Dallas Keuchel takes the mound for the Astros. The ace of the Houston staff was absolutely incredible during the pre-season. Keuchel pitched a total of 17 innings in his four appearances. Zero runs allowed on only seven hits with a stellar 2/16 BB/K ledger.
If those numbers were turned in by an ordinary guy, they’d be impressive enough to at least warrant some attention. When it’s a pitcher of Keuchel’s caliber, I can’t see how it’s anything other than a buy sign for his first regular season start.
It’s also worth noting that Keuchel was lights out coming out of the starting gate last season. So it certainly appears he’s ready. I’m not sure the same can be said for Masahiro Tanaka. The Yankees righty was very hittable down in Florida. Tanaka and his balky elbow are very tough to project on a start to start basis. Good Tanaka can still make quality hitters look pretty helpless. But bad Tanaka can get knocked silly, and I’m hoping that’s the version that shows up today at Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees are missing 1/3 of what could end up being one of the best bullpens the game has ever seen. But even without Aroldis Chapman for the first month, teams had better take care of business early against the Yanks with Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller available to close things out. I don’t have a problem with the Houston pen though, and if the ‘Stros are up late, I like their chances of protecting the lead.
The number here doesn’t qualify as bargain material by any means. Obviously, I’d have liked to have played this game more in the pick ’em neighborhood, but those guys putting up the lines know what they’re doing. But the flip side is I’m getting a legit ace in great form at a reasonable price, so I’ll take the plunge here by laying the price with Keuchel and the Astros.
Sleepyj
Villanova / North Carolina Under 150
I really think the Nova defense sets the pace in this one...These games tend to start out slow and each team is looking to measure up here...So I expect a slow start, but that will also give Nova time to dial in the defense...The big key for me in this game is the inside game..Both teams have good big guys and that is the area in which these teams make money...I'm not sold there is a big edge here though..NC has the better interior team, but they will be limited a bit here I think...This game comes down to shooting outside the paint IMO...Now both teams have been shooting rather well, but both defenses are very good...I'm certain both teams will do all they can to limit turnovers and that can slow down the play...Free throw line might be a spot in which we might need some helps with some misses, but overall I feel the under is a good way to look...Even though I'm done with CBB for the season, I'll throw a unit on this game..I feel The under is worth a 1* wager....Best of luck....Big thanks to all those that jumped on board and supported me this season for CBB...We now focus on NBA playoffs and MLB,
Rob Vinciletti
Mariners vs. Rangers
Play: Under 7½
Solid pitching match here with Hamels for Texas and Felix Hernandez for the Mariners. In the series between these two 24 of the last 37 have stayed under including 13 of 17 here in Texas. Hernandez has pitched under in 6 of his last 8 road April starts and has allowed just 5 runs in 19 innings here in Texas of late. Hamels has allowed just 4 runs in 14 innings in his recent home starts vs Seattle. Look for a low scoring game here.
Scott Spreitzer
Chicago vs. Los Angeles
Play: Los Angeles +129
A lot of pressure on the Cubs as they begin the season. Joe Maddon has a lot of talent held over from last season along with solid additions during the off-season, but the value is on the home team tonight. The Angels will have a different look at multiple positions this season, getting better on defense in my opinion. Mike Scioscia's club may struggle in the AL West during the season, I don't believe they'll make the playoffs after missing five of the last six, but that's because I don't like their rotation...AFTER the top two starting pitchers. Tonight's starter Garrett Richards is one of two hurlers who should give the Halos a strong one-two punch. After that it could get dicey in Anaheim. But we only have to worry about Richards tonight and if he does present the pen with a lead when he leaves, the Angels do have decent talent to back him up, including set-up man Joe Smith and of course, Huston Street to close things out. The Angels enter the season on a 9-1 run in Richards' last 10 IL starts and they're 13-5 in his last 18 at home. While I expect the Cubs to have a much better season than the Angels, I do believe the Halos are the value tonight.
Marc Lawrence
Red Sox vs. Indians
Play: Indians +101
Edges - Indians: Corey Kluber 2-0 with 2.52 ERA home team starts in this series. Red Sox David Price just 8-8 away team starts during April. With Kluber in sharp form with a 2.19 ERA and 26 K’s and 4W’s this spring, we recommend a 1* play on Cleveland.
Mike Lundin
Twins vs. Orioles
Play:Twins +121
This looks like a great price on the Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles Monday afternoon. The Twins have won eight straight meetings in the series and five in a row at Camden Yards.
Ervin Santana (2015: 7-5, 4.00 ERA) will take the mound for the Twins coming off a solid spring giving up just four earned runs over 20 1/3 innings of work. He has the current Orioles roster limited to a .202 AVG over 109 at bats and Chris Davis is 5-for-28 with 11 strikeouts in previous battles with Santana.
The Orioles will turn to Chris Tillman (2015: 11-11, 4.99) who unlike Santana has had a very rough spring, surrendering 11 runs on 19 hits with four homers through 13 2/3 frames. He gave up three runs on four hits and a pair of walks over 6 2/3 innings against Minny last season and compiled a 7.31 ERA over 11 day starts overall.
The Twins are 13-3 in their last 16 road games vs. a right-handed starter and I think they'll give Tillman a very hard time today.
Matt Josephs
Angels +1½ -145
There's a lot of expectations for the Cubs who begin the year in LA against the Angels. Jake Arrieta had an incredible season last year and has already dealt with a mediocre Spring and a blister this season. LAA has an improved lineup with Yunel Escobar and Andrelton Simmons adding to the defense. The Chicago bullpen is still a bit unsettled. Garrett Richards, meanwhile, improved after a slow start this Spring. He's starting out at home where he went 10-4 with a 2.92 ERA last year. The Cubs lineup looks incredible with the offseason additions that they made. I think there's good value with the home team's runline in this one.
Lee Williams
Yankees +116
Yankees open season with a line up in place that can challenge AL East and send Tanaka to mound to face Houston. Tanaka was not overly impressive in exhibition appearances but did show good form in last exhibition game last week. Tanaka was particularly effective at home last year and we feel Yankees should get enough production against Keuchel to win on Monday.
Bob Harvey
Dodgers vs. Padres
Play: Under 5½
The injury riddled Dodgers raise the curtain on the 2016 regular season as they visit their Western Division rival, the San Diego Padres. The Dodgers have won five straight and seven of their past eight season openers.
Clayton Kershaw is scheduled to start for the Blue Crew while San Diego counters with Tyson Ross, making his first opening day start. Kershaw, who will be making his sixth consecutive opening day start for the Dodgers, posted a 1.96 ERA in six spring training starts, owns a 12-6 record and 2.25 ERA in 27 career starts against San Diego
New LA skipper Dave Roberts, who played for both the Dodgers and Padres, will make his managerial debut without three projected starters: Yasmani Grandal, Howie Kendrick and Andre Ethier. However he does have Kershaw giving them a decided advantage on the hill. Kershaw is a three-time NL Cy Young Award winner, who also has an NL MVP Award to his credit,
San Diego will also have a rookie manager in Andy Green who was the third base coach in Arizona last year. Green inherits a San Diego club that went The Padres flattered after May and finished 74-88, three losses worse than in 2014. Ross gets the opening day call after posting a record of 10-12 with a 3.26 ERA in 2015 both career highs.
Jesse Schule
Colorado vs. Arizona
Pick: Arizona -1.5
The Arizona Diamondbacks will host Colorado on Opening Day, and they are a big favorite against a Rockies team that finished last in the NL West last season. Arizona looks like a contender after making a few key acquisitions this off-season, and the biggest move they made was bringing in Zack Greinke over from LA.
Greinke won 19 games with the Dodgers last year, and only poor run support prevented him from an even better showing. He's likely to have a little more runs to work with here in Arizona, but we'll see how he adjusts to a more pitcher friendly park. He certainly didn't mind pitching here in 2015, tossing 15 scoreless innings in a pair of wins.
The Rockies will counter with left-hander Jorge De La Rosa, who didn't look sharp at all this spring. The 32 year old posted a 6.10 ERA, surrendering 26 hits and a staggering nine walks over 20 innings of work. His numbers in previous starts at Chase Field are nothing to write home about, going 1-4 with a 4.60 ERA in five starts since 2013.
Paul Goldschmidt looked great this spring, batting .333 with three home runs and 11 RBIs. He's crushed left-handed pitching over the last three seasons, hitting .344.
Jim Feist
Dodgers at Padres
Pick: Under
The Dodgers will have to hope that Clayton Kershaw returns to his Cy Young ways after all the injuries they have sustained. Not sure how the Dodgers will score runs after a horrible preseason that saw the club plagued by injuries. The Dodgers lineup will be missing 2B Howie Kendrick (calf), C Yasmani Grandal (arm), LF Andre Either (leg) and 3b Alex Guerrero (knee). While Kendrick and Grandal could return fairly soon, Either could be out significant amount of time. Not a great way to start the season for new head coach Dave Roberts. San Diego will start Tyson Ross, making his first opening day start. The Padres will also debut their new coach, Andy Green. The Padres biggest rival are the LA Dodgers and they love nothing more than to beat them. The Dodgers, with Kershaw, opening line was 1.75 and the initial move was up. A big line to fade for a team that might have trouble scoring runs early in the season. Petco Park is a pitcher's park and this one should be very low scoring.
Larry Ness
Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Oakland Athletics
Chris Sale didn’t get the nod on Opening Day last year, as White Sox manager Robin Ventura chose Jeff Samardzija. Ventura said it wasn't necessarily a decision about how his ace was pitching, but rather a consideration of preserving Sale's health for the long haul after he'd been slowed during spring training by a fractured right foot. Sale would set a franchise record with 274 strikeouts during Chicago’s “lost season” in which the White Sox went 76-86. Analytics rank him among the AL’s best pitchers but he finished a modest 13-11 over 31 starts, as Chicago would go 16-15 and minus-$825 vs the moneyline.
Oakland’s Sonny Gray fashioned a 2.73 over 31 starts in 2015, allowing just 166 hits over 208 innings with a 169-59 KW ratio. He finished the season 14-7 but the A’s were just 17-14 in his starts, going minus-$170 against the moneyline. Oakland’s 26-year-old ace earns his THIRD straight Opening Day nod after 14-win seasons in each of his first two full years in the big leagues. If one considers the White Sox having a “lost season” at 76-86, how would one characterize the A’s finishing last in the AL West at 68-94, after THREE straight playoff berths?
Oakland begins another season with few expectations and thoughts that the low-budget club will be at the bottom of the AL West and perhaps even the American League. "We've always been a team that runs a little bit under the radar," manager Bob Melvin said. "It certainly doesn't hurt. I'd hate to think that we can't perform with expectations, but this team's always been in past years a team that has not really at the beginning been expected to do much. We're fine with that chip." The A's need a revamped bullpen to back the starters after Oakland went a MLB-worst 19-35 in one-run games in 2015. The additions of relievers Ryan Madison and Jon Axford along with the healthy return of closer Sean Doolittle, is expected to preserve more wins this time around for Sonny Gray (10 no-decisions last year in which the A’s went 3-7).
The A’s will open the season with 10 of their first 13 at O.co Coliseum but Oakland tied the Cincinnati for the fewest home wins (34) in the majors last season. However, Gray has been dominant in 10 April starts thus far in his career, going 7-1 with a 2.02 ERA after cruising through the season's first month in 2015 (3-0, 1.98 in five outings). Sale posted his third consecutive campaign with at least 200 strikeouts in 2015 and the four-time All-Star has won each of his first two Opening Day assignments. However, both came at home and last year, his road ERA in night games was 4.27.
Jimmy Boyd
Mariners -105
I like the value here with the Mariners at basically a pick'em on the road against the Rangers in the season opener for both teams. Seattle was a big disappointment last year, while Texas surprised everyone by winning the division after a 95-loss campaign the previous season. I'm expecting the Rangers to take a step back in 2016, while the Mariners start to live up to their expectations.
For me this comes down to the starting pitching matchup. Seattle will send out their long-time ace in Felix Hernandez, who will be making his 9th opening day start. the Mariners are a perfect 8-0 behind Hernandez on opening day, as he's posed a 1.49 ERA in these outings. Seattle has also won each of his last 5 starts against the Rangers.
Texas counters with Cole Hamels, who has has a 3.99 ERA and 1.409 WHIP over 6 career starts against the Mariners. Hamels is also known for getting off to slow starts. He's just 8-15 in his last 23 home starts in the month of April.
Brandon Lee
Cubs -137
Chicago is considered by a lot of experts to be the team to beat in 2016 and it's hard to disagree. Hard to not like the Cubs in the opener with their ace and reigning NL Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta on the mound. Arrieta was sensational down the stretch of last season. Chicago is 14-1 in his last 15 road starts with a money line of -110 or more and 18-4 in his last 22 starts in night games. Angels have one of the best players in the game in Trout, but there's a lot of question marks with the rest of the roster. LA will send out Garrett Richards to start the opener and I look for him to struggle against a potent Cubs lineup that is only going to be stronger getting to use the DH.
Will Rogers
Tampa Rays -107
The Toronto Blue Jays beat the Rays 5-3 on Opening Day, and the Jays are a "sexy" pick to repeat as AL East champs this season. Bettors love the Blue Jays offense, but I think there's more value betting against this team that has a pretty suspect pitching staff. The Rays are a small favorite at home today, despite a clear pitching mismatch in their favor. My money is on Tampa.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - Veteran knuckleballer R.A. Dickey will be on the mound for the visiting Jays, and he was not successful at all on the road last year. The 41 year old won 11 games last year, and nine of those came at home. He was 2-8 with a 4.83 ERA in 16 starts on the road, and 1-4 with a 4.40 ERA in five starts versus Tampa. Drew Smyly was undefeated in his final eight starts last season, and he's been very sharp in Spring Training.
2. Home Cookin' - The Rays have won six of their last eight at Tropicana Field, and they've won seven of Smyly's last eight starts on astroturf.
3. X-Factor - Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are a combined 1-for-9 versus Smyly.