Frank Jordan
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Seattle Mariners
Texas made a block buster trade in the summer getting Cole Hamels and it seemed like a move more for this year to team him up with Yu Darvish, but it seemed to spark the team as they went on a great run and finished in first place in the AL West with an 88-74 record. Texas was decent at home with a 43-38 record. Seattle had another down year with a 76-86 record as the fell off from the year before's good season. Seattle was better on the road with a 40-41 record. Seattle is throwing King Felix who had an 18-9 record and 3.53 ERA and was 7-3 on the road but ERA over 4 on the road. Felix owed Texas last year with a 5-0 record and ERA of just 1.83 and .168 batting average against. Cole Hamels went 13-8 last year with a 3.65 ERA with both Texas and Philadelphia. Hamels did face Seattle four times last year with a 4 ERA, but did have a 2-1 record. Hamels made seven starts at the Ballpark at Arlington and went 4-0 with a 3.66 ERA. Look for a great pitchers duel as both starters go deep, but Seattle will edge out Texas 2-1.
Wunderdog
Colorado @ Arizona
Pick: Arizona -1.5
Colorado was a last place team a year ago, struggling on the road, as usual. Starter Jorge De La Rosa turns 35 years old tomorrow and is a notoriously slow starter, allowing 14 runs in his first three starts last April. He is over the hill and off a poor spring, with a 4.63 ERA. The Rockies are on a 38-88 run on the road and 32-71 away against a right-handed starter. They don't face just any righty here, but new Arizona ace Zack Greinke with a 1.88 ERA this spring. Last season his 1.66 ERA was the lowest by a National League pitcher since Greg Maddux and his 1.63 ERA two decades ago. The Arizona Diamondbacks were one of the top offensive teams in the National League last season, and the Rockies are 15-38 in the last 53 meetings in Arizona. Play the Arizona Diamondbacks on the runline.
Dr. Bob Analysis
North Carolina (-2½) vs Villanova (149½ OU)
I wish I had a pick on this game but I have reason to take both sides. From a value perspective I like Villanova, as my ratings favor North Carolina by just ½ a point and the Wildcats have been the better team in this tournament. My variance adjusted game ratings rate Villanova 3.3 points higher using only NCAA tournament games and even using the median 3 games (throwing out the highest and lowest ratings for each team) still rates Villanova 2.8 points better. If I throw out the round 1 games against bad teams then things even up a bit, as those 4 games would rate Villanova only 0.6 points better after adjusting for variance. If you don’t adjust for variance then there is no doubt that the Wildcats have been much better but Villanova’s variance adjusted rating is 13.8 points lower than their average rating without an adjustment while North Carolina’s variance adjusted rating is only 2.9 points higher than their non-adjusted rating. Regardless of how I look at it I don’t have any ratings that would favor North Carolina by more than ½ a point in this game. The reason I’m not jumping on Villanova based on line value is because the Wildcats apply to a 1-19 ATS Final Four situation that’s 0-6 ATS in the championship game.
From a match up perspective this game will likely come down to whether Villanova can continue to knock down their 3-point shots at a pretty good rate. North Carolina does not defend the 3-point arc well (35.9% allowed this season) and Villanova has made an incredible 48.4% of their 3-point shots in this tournament after being a mediocre 3-point shooting team prior to the tournament. The Wildcats don’t need to continue to make that high a percentage, as I think they’re likely to win if they make 37% or more (they’re 35.9% for the season) as long as they don’t get dominated in the rebounding department, which is really North Carolina’s only advantage in this game. Villanova is not only knocking down their 3-point shots recently, and are expected to make a higher percentage than UNC in this game, but Nova is #2 in the nation in 2-point field goal percentage and #2 in free throw percentage and my model projects better shooting stats for the Wildcats in every category. Rebounding is where the Tarheels have an advantage and they need to create more shooting opportunities for themselves since they’re not expected to shoot a higher percentage than Villanova. North Carolina will almost surely have more rebounds in this game but they’ve got to be better than the +6 they’re projected to be to balance out Villanova’s shooting advantage. Of course, if Nova’s outside shots aren’t falling then that won’t matter, as North Carolina is likely to win if the Wildcats are 33% or lower in 3-point shooting. The NRG stadium affect (historically lower 3-point shooting percentages than expected) didn’t affect Villanova at all in their semifinal win over Oklahoma, as the Cats poured in 11 of 18 3-point shots. However, Villanova was the only one of the four teams to shoot a higher percentage from 3-point range than expected on Saturday so there is still reason to believe that the dome might have some negative affect on 3-point shooting (32.4% in 18 previous college games played here), which would help UNC a bit since the Tarheels don’t take as many 3-point shots. There were a lot of people that took the under in both games on Saturday because of the previous under trend at NRG but the line was adjusted for that and both games went over the total. My match up model projects 150½ total points and I still think there should be a slight adjustment lower for playing in a dome so the posted total of 149½ points is about right and I don’t see enough value to play the total either way. I wish I had something for you on this final game but I’ve had a solid NCAA Tournament (8-5-1 on Best Bets, despite starting 1-4, and 19-12 on the opinions) and I see no reason to force a bet that’s not there. I’ll pass on both the side and the total.
GoodFella
Twins TT Over 4
We have a nice weather pattern going for us this afternoon, and the baseball carries best in day games, too. This Twins line-up is solid and they're being under-valued some IMO. Add on the fact that this game is being played in one of the best hitters venue (Camden Yards). These Orioles have an average at best bullpen and I expect these Twins to connect off of O's SP Tillman eventually. I'm on the Twins Team Total OVER 4 runs this afternoon.
Bob Balfe
North Carolina -2.5
If Nova can come out and shoot way above their season average then of course they have a shot to win this game, but If you look at these UNC players all you see in pure NBA talent up and down the lineup and this is a team that is going to get a ton of second chance points as they should dominate the glass tonight. Obviously both teams are more than capable of cutting down the nets tonight, but it is so hard for me to see a Roy Williams coached team with all of this talent slipping up tonight. This should be a great final with tons of offensive production.
Brad Wilton
My comp play release for Monday is the Under in tonight's title game.
I know Villanova poured in 95 points in their semifinal win over Oklahoma, and I know they are shooting at near 60% for the tournament, but their Saturday win over the Sooners only went Over the total by a basket believe it or not.
North Carolina has played Overs in 3 straight in the Dance, and 4 of 5 overall in this tournament have also played high.
My feeling is with this being for the National Championship, the points will not flow as freely as they have been for both sides, and this one will end up just shy of cracking the total.
Oh, they will be close, but in the end, this one holds just Under the total in Houston's cavernous NRG Stadium for Monday night.
2* VILLANOVA-NORTH CAROLINA UNDER
Chris Jordan
Taking the under as my free play tonight, as I think Colorado and Arizona will open the season with a tight game, based on the starters.
MAKE NOTE: All Run Line/Total plays automatically list pitchers with the starters who are scheduled to go at the time of the wager, and I want you to be sure the following pitchers are the starters of record on your ticket when making your play: Jorge De La Rosa and Zack Greinke If one or both of these pitchers is not going, this is a no-play.
Greinke makes his Arizona-debut, and the Diamondbacks will be pleased with their new frontline starter. Greinke brings that high 3/4 to overhand arm action to Phoenix, and it will work well in that sweltering heat this summer.
He does a good job in adding and subtracting from a 90- to 94-mph fastball. He takes hitters off his fastball with a pair of plus breaking pitches and an occasional changeup.
With De La Rosa, we have an aggressive hurler who jumps at hitters out of his lower 3/4 windup. He generally shows two plus pitches: a fastball with arm-side run and a cutter-type slider. I do know he runs up high pitch counts, but given this is the first time out, he has the edge on hitters.
Play this one under.
2* Rockies/Diamondbacks Under
Scott Delaney
My free play for championship night will be on the Chicago Cubs, over the Angels of Anaheim, and I want you listing both scheduled starters: Jake Arrieta and Garrett Richards.
This seems a bit easy for me, as the Cubbies have enjoyed their time on the west coast, after Big League Weekend in Las Vegas, and then venturing five hours west to Anaheim for an exhibition on Sunday. The feel of Angel Stadium of Anaheim is already there, and the Cubs hand the ball to the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner, as Arrieta will make his second Opening Day start and first for the Cubs.
It's funny, in that the Cubs' ace right-hander was labeled as an underachiever two years ago, but showed up bigger than the previous season, beginning to make his statement. He dominates when he maintains his release point and command.
The strong-armed northpaw has excellent downward angle to the plate and overpowers hitters with a 93- to 97-mile per hour fastball and a pair of sharp breaking pitches when he’s staying closed and within himself, while going to a cutter seems to help him.
I think he will do much better than Richards, a power pitcher with long 3/4-arm action. I know he can blow hitters away or induce ground balls with a heavy sinking fastball (94-97 mph), but I also know Chicago's lineup is tailor-made for his types of pitches.. He counts on a wipeout slide as his chief secondary pitch, and that's not going to cut it against guys like Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Ben Zobrist, or Kyle Schwarber and Jorge Soler.
Take the Cubbies as your free play, and list both.
2* CUBS
Ray Monohan
Lightning vs. Islanders
Play: Islanders -118
The Islanders and Lightning go at it on Monday night and the home team in New York has the value. The Islanders are in a tight race for both the Wild Card and with the Rangers. The Isles hold a slim lead in the WC, but are also just 2 points behind the Rangers in the standings.
New York has been dominant at home, going 24-10-4 at the Barclays Center.
Some trends to consider. NYI are 9-3 in their last 12 home games. TB are 1-7 in the last 8 meetings in New York.
The Lightning learned they will be without captain Steven Stamkos as well, which is a huge blow on the ice and mentally. Look for the Islanders to take advantage of that Monday night as they grab a home win.
Jack Jones
Oakland A's +117
The Oakland A's come into 2016 way undervalued due to their 68-94 record last year. They had won 94, 96 and 88 games in the previous three seasons, so it was certainly an aberration. In fact, you could argue that they were better than the Texas Rangers last year, who won the AL West.
Despite winning 20 more games than the A's, the Rangers outscored their opponents by only 53 runs. That differential means they should have had roughly six more wins than the A's, not 20. Oakland's pitching staff even allowed four fewer runs than Texas last year.
Oakland's problem last year was the bullpen. It only went 45-23 in games in which it led after six innings for a 66 percent rate. The other 14 teams in the AL won 84 percent of games in which they led after six innings. The 23 losses were more than double the 11 that the other 14 teams averaged. This bullpen will be significantly better in 2016.
Sonny Gray is one of the most underrated aces in baseball. He has gone 33-20 with a 2.88 ERA in 74 career starts spanning three seasons. Gray went 14-7 with a 2.73 ERA last season. He should shut down a White Sox team that is getting way too much hype once again this season. I really like getting Gray and the A's as a home underdog on Opening Day.
Teddy Covers
San Diego +184
Teddy NAILED his Big Ticket NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Saturday, cashing with Villanova’s 43 point blowout over Oklahoma. Then he followed it up with a perfect sweep on Sunday, including an opening day MLB underdog winner on KC! He’s 54-36 (60%) across all sports dating all the way back to February and he’s hit 75% in college hoops since the start of the Sweet 16 Go for the 2-0 Sweep with Teddy's top rated MLB and college hoops selections tonight!
Clayton Kershaw is a true ace, arguably the best pitcher in the NL coming into the season. Last year, he became the first pitcher in MLB history to finish among the Top 3 in Cy Young voting in five consecutive seasons. His team – the LA Dodgers – won 92 games and finished in first place. And oh, by the way, if you bet on Kershaw in every game, you lost more than five units over the course of the season. And given the nature of the 2016 MLB betting marketplace, wagering on the best pitcher in the NL is likely to be a money losing proposition moving forward.
All of Kershaw’s dominant numbers are baked into this line, leaving the Dodgers priced as $2 road favorites this evening. His counterpart on the Padres side, Tyson Ross, put up truly dominant numbers last year, the only pitcher in the majors besides Cubs ace Jake Arrieta to finish in the Top 10 in both strikeouts per nine innings and ground ball rates last year.
Arrieta finished the season as the most profitable pitcher in baseball, but Ross was on the wrong end of the ‘luck’ equation repeatedly, finishing the season with only ten wins. Ross dominated the Dodgers lineup in both meetings against them last year, allowing only three runs in those two games. A similar effort here will put us in position to cash at this big underdog price.
SPORTS WAGERS
Tampa Bay -105 over N. Y. ISLANDERS
OT included. The Islanders are fighting for their playoff lives and instead of digging down deep and looking better each game, the Isles are getting progressively worse. The Islanders have only won four of their last 10 games and those victories were all against teams not headed to the dance. It’s one thing if they were playing well and losing but that’s not the case at all. The Islanders have mustered a measly 27 shots on net or less in eight of their past 10 games. They have had 24 or less in five of those. In one of their biggest home games of the season against the rival Pens on Saturday, the Isles got whacked 5-0 and had a mere 24 shots on net. The Islanders are way out of sorts right now and may even miss the playoffs.
It would appear to most that Tampa Bay's season is over with the loss of Steven Stamkos. Stammer will miss 1-3 months with a blood clot and his teammates will have to forge ahead without him. We aren't as worried but we didn't really like Tampa's chances anyway. We're always looking for value and what the Stamkos injury does is inflate the price on whoever the Lightning will play the rest of the way. We've seen a few pretty solid examples lately of teams stepping it up when a stud leaves the lineup. The Penguins and Stars have been on a tear after losing Evgeni Malkin and Tyler Seguin to injuries. The Blackhawks responded to the suspension of Duncan Keith with a six-goal outburst against the Bruins on Sunday. When the market is down on a team because of injury, we like to strike. These guys are all pros and when their backs are against the wall, teams often come together to overcome the adversity. Players love it when everyone writes them off, as they take a 'nobody believes in us' attitude to the ice and it usually pays off. Look for the Bolts to dig down deep tonight in support of their captain, as we look to take advantage of the inevitable market overreaction to losing a big-name player.
COLUMBUS +149 over N.Y. Rangers
OT included. The Rangers will try and clinch a playoff spot here for the fourth game in a row. In the previous three games in a clinching position, the Rangers are 0-3 with losses to Pittsburgh, Carolina and Buffalo. With each passing loss, clinching becomes more difficult but it’s more than that. We have maintained all season that the Rangers have been living a charmed life. They are a weak puck possession team that has defied the odds by winning far too many games that they get out-shot and outplayed in. The Rangers have been outshot in 14 of their past 17 games. Many of those were by a wide margin. The Rangers’ shot differential remains one of the worst in the game which puts them in the same class as New Jersey, Arizona and Vancouver. The Rangers have simply been a lot luckier than the teams below them in the standings otherwise they would be near the bottom of the East. The Rangers’ under the surface stats insist this is a below average team that has ridden a strong shooting percentage and save percentage (the two most luck-driven stats in sports) to more wins than they should have. Those victories make the Rangers overvalued almost every night and that’s never been more evident than it is in this game.
The Jackets are worthy of backing when Joonas Korpisalo is in goal and we outlined the reasons for that on Saturday before Columbus defeated the Hurricanes, 5-1. We’ll post that discussion again here:
The Jackets were red-hot for a six-week stretch from January 25 until March 8 in which they picked up 25 out of a possible 36 points over 18 games. Since then and beginning on March 11, the Jackets have gone ice-cold again with just two victories over their last 10 games. The reason the Jackets have gone so cold is because that stiff, Sergei Bobrovsky returned from a long injury on that exact date (March 11). Bobrovsky has posted save percentages of .815, .846, .892, .864, .875 and .852 in six of eight starts. It’s is 100% for certain that Bobrovsky would have remained on the bench upon returning from injury if Columbus wasn’t paying him 8.5M this season. The Jackets had a great thing going with Joonas Korpisalo playing every game before Bob returned but since everything is about money, Bobrovsky got his job back. We’ve said it a million times in the past and we’ll say it again that goaltending is the number one deciding factor in the outcome of games.
Korpisalo is an outstanding young talent that has played brilliantly when called upon. On Saturday, Korpisalo was under siege in the first period against Carolina but held strong and the Jackets went on to an easy win. Well, John Tortorella wants to beat his old team badly and has chosen to go with Korpisalo again here. The Jackets have many ex-Rangers on their team and every single player (and coach) on that Jackets bench will do everything in their power to prevent the Rangers from clinching in their barn. The Jackets have been a powerhouse with Korpisalo in goal and now they’re being offered this absolutely ludicrous price at home because why? This is one game in which anything can happen but this is a must play because it’s one of the biggest overlays of the season.
SPORTS WAGERS
SAN DIEGO +176 over Los Angeles
There is no purpose whatsoever for us to discuss Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw is probably the best pitcher on the planet and he needs no introductions. However, in order to win, he needs run support and he may not get it here. There is a distinct possibility that this game will tied 0-0, 1-1 or 2-2 going to the late innings at which point our bet will look a lot more appealing. So, let’s forget about Kershaw for a sec because everyone knows he’s the nuts and focus on San Diego’s starter, Tyson Ross.
This may be the only time this year that a price anywhere close to this will be offered on Ross at home. Ross saw his surface stats erode from 2014 (2.81 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) to 2015 (3.26 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) but his skills actually improved: 9.7 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 62% groundballs. Ross’s groundball rate has surged for four consecutive seasons. As a guy who throws hard and has one of the game's best sliders, Ross has nothing but profit potential at prices like this. His first pitch strike rate says his control is still his biggest obstacle to managing pitch count and taking a step forward. If he can refine his control to another level, it would allow him to pitch deeper into games but at the end of the day, he’s still one of the toughest pitchers to hit in the majors. Ross has filthy stuff and at this price, Ross is worth a bet every single time.
Harry Bondi
OAKLAND +115 over Chicago White Sox
One of our three MLB Season Over/Under Best Bets this season is Oakland to go over and one of the main reasons is that we feel Sonny Gray is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball. In his short career, Gray has won 64% of his 105 starts with a 2.83 ERA and today we get him as a home dog against a White Sox team that won just 76 games last season. This is the kind of value we won't see after Memorial Day if Gray gets off to the great start we think he will, so let's grab the price now.
Vegas Butcher
Villanova +2
UNC ranks #1 in OffEff and #23 in DefEff, while 'Nova ranks #2 in OffEff and #6 in DefEff this year. I think this advantage defensively will be a factor in today's championship game. Both teams can score inside, both are excellent at the FT-line, but one significant advantage that Villanova has in this game is their 3PT shooting - 36% vs 32%. UNC doesn't defend the 3PT shot very well at all (rank bottom 100 in the nation...out of 351 schools), and they could be vulnerable there on the defensive end. Plus Villanova's ability to score in the paint will prevent UNC from totally selling out to stop the perimeter scoring. Another advantage that I see is Villanova's superior ability to force turnovers - 21% TO-rate vs 18% for UNC. In a close game between the top teams in college basketball, an ability to force and extra TO or two could very well be a deciding factor. Like I've mentioned earlier, I think Villanova's D will be a deciding factor in this one as I like their chances for a small upset. They've held Kansas and Oklahoma to fewer than 60 points each, and both of those teams are premier offensive teams in college basketball. I like their chances of winning with their D tonight as well.