Free Picks for Monday, February 13th, 2017, from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
SOUTH ALABAMA AT UL LAFAYETTE
PLAY: SOUTH ALABAMA +6
I will play against UL Lafayette here. The Cajuns can’t really qualify as an overall disappointment this season, as the reality is their power ranking is about where it was prior to the season. But beyond the power ratings, I think it’s apparent this team has some effort issues. You can pin that blame wherever you want or just disagree with me completely if you wish. But I equate defense with effort and the ULL numbers don’t lie.
The Sun Belt Conference has 12 teams. Using just league games as a resource, ULL is dead last in defensive efficiency. 12th out of 12 in three-point defense, 11th out of 12 in two-point defense, below league average forcing turnovers, below league average in offensive rebounds allowed, etc.
Granted, Louisiana is an up tempo team and their whole deal is to try and outscore the opposition. But if a team can’t get any stops, maybe the style of play needs to be overhauled. Offense might be what makes the Sportscenter highlight reel, but defense wins games.
Current form indicates South Alabama. The Jaguars are off back to back road wins at Troy and UL-Monroe. Louisiana is slumping badly with four straight losses. The Cajuns are a meager 2-7 in their last nine outings and those two wins were games in which ULL had big leads and let the opponent get back into the game.
On the pure numbers, the line is about where it should be tonight. But I’d much rather have the team with the positive momentum against the slumping hosts, especially with a decent amount of points in the mix. I’ll sign up for South Alabama plus the points tonight.
Red Dog Sports
Villanova vs. DePaul
Play: DePaul +18½
Villanova only beat Depaul by 3 points at home about a month ago. The Wildcats have games against Butler and Creighton coming soon and may overlook the Blue Demons after winning at Xavier on Saturday. Depaul is off a blowout loss at home to Creighton but should bounce back as they have had some close home games and did beat Providence by one points. Cain and Billy Garrett are solid players for the home team.
Stephen Nover
Orlando vs. Miami
Play: Orlando +8
I'm going to test a handicapping theory. It's the play-against the hot team that just had their long winning streak snapped. In this case it's fade the Miami Heat. The Heat appeared to have their lottery reservations well in order when they lost 30 of their first 41 games. But a funny thing happened on the way to crying about the glory days of LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh. The Heat got hot proving you should never count out the underrated coaching of Erik Spoelstra. Miami rattled off an NBA-high 13-game win streak, longest in league history for a sub-.500 team. The historic streak ended this past Saturday when the 76ers took advantage of a flat Miami road performance to beat the Heat, 117-109. Miami committed 20 turnovers and had just 15 assists in the loss. Now the Heat return to South Florida perhaps missing Dion Waiters for a fourth straight game due to a ankle injury. The team's third-leading scorer is questionable. So there very well could be a lingering deflation for the Heat. Waiters would be missed because he's the only other respectable scoring threat besides Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside. The catch in going against the Heat in this spot is backing the Magic, losers of 12 of their last 15. This is a sure-fire lottery team, devoid of hope dragging into All-Star break with shot morale and daily trade rumors suggesting a thorough housecleaning. Frank Vogel hasn't fixed Orlando's defense, which ranks 20th and 24th in defensive field goal percentage. The Magic just surrendered 112 points in a 32-point road loss to the Mavericks this past Saturday. Dallas happens to be the lowest-scoring team in the NBA averaging 98.2 points. Miami is averaging 112.3 points in its last eight games. That would rank third in the NBA if compounded during the entire season. The Heat still have averaged 107.6 points during their last three games minus Waiters. At least the Magic should be highly motivated, right? They off an embarrassing loss in which their effort was questioned and now play their in-state rival. The Magic have the big men with Serge Ibaka and Nikola Vucevic to keep Whiteside from going crazy. The Magic also are 11-6 ATS when catching seven or more points. So let's give the theory a test.
Braxton Myles
West Virginia vs. Kansas
Play: West Virginia +4½
This should be a great game between two high caliber teams. West Virginia rolled Kansas in their first game this season at home, with this game going to the Jayhawks home court this time I look for this game to be much closer. West Virginia is playing very good basketball as of late and are looking to go on a 3 game winning streak and with Kansas struggling in their last few games going 2-2 ATS and just not being very impressive in conference play going 5-6 ATS I see West Virginia prevailing in this one. West Virginia has taken this series 4 of 6 ATS in the last 3 seasons and with Kansas pathetic 2-8 record ATS at home this season I am going all in on West Virginia in this one.
Marc Lawrence
West Virginia vs. Kansas
Play: Kansas -4
Edges - Jayhawks: 31-0 SU and 20-11 ATS at home with revenge under Bill Self; and Self 3-0 SUATS with same season loss revenge with Kansas. Mountaineers: visiting team in this series is 1-8 ATS. With the Jayhawks looking to atone for a 16-point loss suffered at Morgantown three weeks ago, and WVU off a 19-point home revenge win over Kansas State, we recommend a 1* play on Kansas.
Tennis Insiders
Reilly Opelka v Jared Donaldson
Pick: Reilly Opelka
Opelka has struggled for consistency on the Challenger Tour, but motivation will definitely be high tonight. He's the only singles match on the night session on center court, and he's caused major problems for his opponents in previous ATP events. He's already beaten Anderson, Chardy & reached the semi-finals of an ATP event in Atlanta. He forced David Goffin to a deciding set in Australia, and has hit 124 aces in his last 9 matches at the top level. Standing at 2.11m, his serve is the key to his game, but he can also move well for such a tall player, much better around the baseline than Karlovic or Isner. Donaldson started 2017 with a win against Gilles Muller & forced Kei Nishikori to a deciding set in Brisbane, but has suffered three straight first round defeats since and he'll struggle to gain much rhythm tonight with the gamestyle of Opelka. Scoreboard pressure could prove crucial here, if Donaldson has to serve to stay in the set/match at 4/5 or 5/6 down, Opelka could capatalize. Donaldson, like most young players still struggles with his return game and has suffered defeats to Karlovic & Isner. Opelka needs to become more consistent to reach their level, but these medium pace conditions are perfect for him, allowing him time to tee of on his forehand & get more balls back into play off the return.
Brandon Shively
Clippers at Jazz
Play: Under
Anytime I see a Utah game on their homecourt with a total over 202 points, I will look closer. After handicapping this game, I do like it ‘Under’ tonight. The posted total is higher than what it normally would be because, 1) the Jazz are on a 5-0 OVER run, and 2) the Clippers have the worst defensive rating in the NBA the last 10 games.
The Jazz are more of a ‘under’ team and trends and statistics support that. It’s not often you will find them go ‘over’ 6 straight games. The Jazz play at a very slow pace and also play very good defense. The Jazz are the slowest paced team in the NBA the last 10 games. Since 2010, the Jazz have played six consecutive games to the ‘Over only once! There were 6 other times where they were on a 5-0 ‘Over’ run and the 6th game went ‘Under’ by an average of 9.7 points. Now is an opportune time to take the Jazz ‘Under’.
The Clippers started off their road trip slow, but have won their last 2 and are headed back towards home after this stop in Utah. The Clippers are a better defensive team than what they have shown as of late. And Doc Rivers does not like to be known as a bad defensive team. He is having his guys play better and harder as of late. They locked down Kemba Walker vs Charlotte and held the Hornets to 43% shooting, which included only 30% in the 3rd quarter.
Utah is 1-16 SU the last 17 meetings vs the Clippers. The last 3 home meetings when the total was 200 or higher, the Jazz only scored 87, 89, and 96 points. Utah is coming off two losses and this is a game they definitely want to win. I expect them to want to do that with their usual hard nosed defensive style and slow pace on offense. This year as a home favorite and coming off a home loss, the Jazz have given up only 84, 88, 85, and 98 points the following game. The UNDER is 15-6 since 2012 when the Jazz are a home favorite and coming off a home loss. Bring the opponent in off a win, and the UNDER is 7-2 since 2012. I think we see a tough fought game with a final score in the 101-94 range.
Jim Feist
Baylor at Texas Tech
Pick: Under
Baylor can play defense, 8-3-1 under the total on the road and 13-3 under against the Big 12. They have a big frontcourt that can rebound and block shots behind 6-10 junior Jon Motley (16.9 ppg, 9.7 rpg) and 7-foot junior Jo Lual-Acuil (9 ppg, 7 rpg). They are on a 13-6-1 under the total for coach Scott Drew. Texas Tech is home on a 5-2 run under, as well as 7-3 under the total against a team with a winning straight up record. And the Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
LV Traders
Georgia St at Coastal Carolina
PickL Coastal Carolina
Cliff Ellis teams notoriously play their best ball in the closing stretch of the season. This is a veteran roster which plays solid team defense and has the ability to slow down the Panthers.
Ben Burns
Hawks vs. Blazers
Play: Under 217
Its no secret that the Blazers like to push the pace. That said, given the setup and opponent, this O/U line still looks a little on the high side. For just the second time this season, the Blazers have enjoyed three day's worth of rest in between games. In the previous instance, their next game stayed well below the number. That game (1/25 vs LA) had an O/U line of 221 but produced only 203 combined points. Going back a little further finds the 'under' at 8-4 the past 2+ seasons, when Portland has played with three or more day's rest in between games.
Atlanta road games are averaging 204.8 points this season. The "under" is 12-5 when the Hawks have seen an O/U line of 210 or greater. Going back further, including last year's visit here, the "under" is 21-11 the last few seasons, when they've played a game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. Last year's meeting here had an O/U line of 211.5 and finished with 202 combined points. That game had just 91 points at the break. Don't be surprised if this one also proves a little lower-scoring than expected.
Jimmy Moore
West Virginia +4
This line is going to get very tilted with Kansas money since this is the first game at home since their last home game which was a rare loss. The squares will be all over Kansas on the bounce back but the smart money will be on the Mountaineers and the points. West Virginia is 6-4 ATS on the road and they are 7-2 ATS on Monday games. Kansas is awesome SU at home but this season ATS at home they only have 2 covers which tells you they are almost always over valued at home. The Mountaineers play very strong defense, look for that D to keep them within the number here to get the cover.
David Banks
West Virginia @ Kansas
Pick: West Virginia +5
The Big 12 is getting interesting. No. 7 West Virginia travels to No. 3 Kansas on Monday night in a game that neither team can ill afford to lose. West Virginia, Kansas, and Baylor (20-3, 7-3) lost home games last week and are in danger of playing their way right out of the regular season conference title. The Mountaineers (18-5, 6-4) will face Oklahoma and Kansas State before taking on the Jayhawks. Head coach Bob Huggins’ team is talented and can score and rebound with anybody.
Kansas will face in-state rival Kansas State and Texas Tech before the Mountaineers come to town. The Jayhawks (20-3, 8-2) are still in control of the conference title but cannot take another loss, especially at home. Frank Mason III continues to lead Kansas with 20.4 points and 5.2 assists per game. The Jayhawks starting lineup is as good as any in the country. Freshman Josh Jackson (16.0 ppg) and Devonte Graham (13.4) give Kansas possibly the nation’s best backcourt and 6-10 Landen Lucas (8.5 rpg), 6-10 Carlton Bragg Jr. (6.1 ppg, 4.8 rpg), and 7-0 Udoka Azubuike (5.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg) give the Jayhawks size up front.
For West Virginia, it’s all about scoring. The Mountaineers are eighth in the nation (87.1 ppg) and Huggins plays 10 players every night and each one is capable of filling it up. Both Esa Ahmad and Jevon Carter average 11.7 points a game to lead West Virginia. The key will be defense. The Mountaineers pressure is going to have to create turnovers and Huggins’ squad is going to have to convert on those opportunities.
Buster Sports
Spurs vs. Indiana
Play: Under 207
San Antonio comes into Indiana off of a somewhat shocking loss to the dysfunctional NY Knicks yesterday and we believe they will be very focused for tonight's game in Indiana. The Pacers are coming off of a real ugly home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks 116-100 and they have been allowing points in bunches of late. We believe both of these clubs will be concentrating on defense tonight and we like the Total in this game to go UNDER. The Pacers understand the only way they have a chance in this game is to play solid D and we believe Nate McMillan will have the troops focused to do just that for this one. Backing our selection is the fact that the UNDER is 6-1 in the Spurs last 7 games overall and the fact that the UNDER is 8-2 in the Pacers last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Teddy Davis
San Antonio at Indiana
Play: Indiana +3½
I know the Spurs are tough especially playing on back to back's, but they have been shaky on the road lately evidence of last night's loss @ Knicks. The Pacers will be looking to bounce back from an ugly beat down from the Bucks the other night. This will be the Spurs 5th consecutive road game in 8 days as well, while the Pacers have had zero travel. Pacers are 6-1 ATS L7 games following a double digit loss at home