Micah Roberts
Thunder at Wizards
Play: Wizards -5
The Wizards have failed to cover its last three and four of the last five, but they've only lost to Cleveland in overtime during that span. They get a visit from Oklahoma City tonight who just got embarrassed at home in a big game for them by Golden State. When the Wizards visited OKC in November, they lost 126-115 in OT, but that Wizards squad is long gone. The current team is dialed in. I like them to roll tonight.
Wunderdog
Atlanta @ Portland
Pick: Atlanta +1
Atlanta has a winning road record because of a strong defense, eighth in points allowed and seventh in field goal shooting defense. They are on a 16-7 straight up run, but won't be in a good mood after blowing a 22-point third-quarter lead in a 108-107 loss at Sacramento. The Hawks are 10-4 ATS following a spread loss. Portland lacks defense, #26 in points allowed while allowing 38% shooting from long range (#28). Defense was an issue once again for Portland in Thursday's 120-111 loss to Boston. The loss was costly as guard Evan Turner broke a bone in his right hand and will miss up to six weeks of action. The team is also in transition, trading center Mason Plumlee yesterday to the Denver Nuggets in exchange for center Jusuf Nurkic and a first-round draft pick. Atlanta has won four straight meetings, 11 of the last 15, and the Hawks are 9-3 ATS at Portland.
Scott Rickenbach
Pelicans vs. Suns
Play: Under 221
This total has been on the rise this morning from 218.5 to 221. Not a huge move but big enough certainly to offer a little additional line value in what is a nice spot. The Pelicans have stayed under the total in 6 of their last 9 road games (and are 65-40 to the under long-term away from home). New Orleans scored just 99 points at Sacramento last night and the Pelicans have now been held under 100 points in 5 of their last 7 road games. The Suns come into this game off of an ugly loss at Houston where they gave up 133 points to the Rockets! Phoenix had stayed under the total in 3 straight games before that ugly result and I look for the Suns to respond at home here. In a "winnable game" Phoenix will be a little more inclined to play some solid D and try to get stops, especially after falling just short at New Orleans last Monday. The Suns lost that game by 5 and it stayed under the total. Phoenix will be looking for revenge here but it is their cold shooting (now 43% or less from the field in 7 of their 8 games) that should help this one stay under the total. The Pelicans scoring woes on the road continue here.
Brandon Lee
West Virginia vs. Kansas
Play; West Virginia +5½
The perception here is that Kansas is going to get their revenge on the Mountaineers, from an ugly 69-85 loss at West Virginia back on 1/24. That may be the case, but I don't think they do so by more than the number here. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if the Mountaineers won this game given how good they looked against the Jayhawks in that first meeting. Note that 3 of West Virginia's 4 conference losses have come by 4-points or less with their largest defeat by just 7. I think it's also worth noting that while this Kansas team is extremely talented, they did lose their last home game to a ISU team that is not nearly as good as the Mountaineers. We also just nearly saw the Jayhawks lose their last two on the road at Kansas State and Texas Tech, both wins coming by a combined 4-points. Kansas is also just 2-8 ATS at home this season and 0-6 ATS off a road win.
Bryan Leonard
76ers vs. Hornets
Play: 76ers +8
The current line of -8 shows that the Nornets would be 5 points better than the Sixers on a neutral court. On the season Charlotte is 5-10 ATS when installed as 5 points or better this season. You would have to go all the way back to December 28th against Orlando to find Chartlotte cashing a ticket in this price range. The Hornets have dropped 9 of 10 in straight up fasion overall heading into this contest.
Philadelphia is riding a 16-6 overall spread run and despite key injuries this team continues to compete on a day to day basis. No way should they be discounted this much in the marketplace.
Black Widow
Spurs vs. Pacers
Play: Spurs -3½
Bets against underdogs who are off a double-digit loss as a home favorite of 6 points or more, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 28-6 ATS since 1996. After a bad loss at the Knicks last time out, look for the Spurs to rebound in a big way against the Pacers tonight.
Dave Price
Thunder vs. Wizards
Play: Wizards -5
The Washington Wizards have gone an insane 18-1 in their last 19 home games. Their only loss came to the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers in overtime after Lebron James banked in a lucky 3 to force OT at the buzzer. I fully expect the Wizards to roll at home again tonight against a deflated Oklahoma City team that is coming off the huge game against the Warriors on Saturday night in which they lost 114-130 at home. The Thunder will have a hard time getting up for the Wizards after facing Golden State in KD's return to OKC. Washington is 11-2 ATS in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more this season. The Wizards are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games overall.
Jack Jones
Celtics vs. Mavs
Play: Mavs +2½
The Dallas Mavericks enter play Monday playing their best basketball of the season. They have gone 11-5 SU & 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Yet, they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers as home underdogs to the Boston Celtics tonight.
The Celtics are in a difficult situation here as this will be the fourth and final road game on their four-game trip. They lost to the Kings to open it before back-to-back wins and covers at Portland and Utah. Asking them to win three straight on the highway against quality competition is asking too much here.
The Mavericks have clearly had the Celtics' number, going 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight meetings. Dallas is also 15-4 SU in its last 19 home meetings with Boston. Boston is 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
Dallas is 16-5 ATS when revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. The Mavericks are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games. The Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win. This clearly appears to be a classic case of the wrong team being favored.
Jimmy Boyd
Thunder vs. Wizards
Play: Wizards -5
I really like the value here with Washington laying a relatively short number at home against the Thunder. The Wizards are now 25-8 in their last 33 games and 16-3 over their last 19. While Washington is starting to get more respect, I don't believe they are all that overvalued due to their awful start to the season that has their overall record at just 32-21.
Washington has been exceptional at home all season at 23-7 and come into this one having won 18 of their last 19 home games. I don't see the Wizards taking this one off, as their dynamic backcourt duo of Wall and Beal should be excited for the chance to show off against Westbrook. As for the Thunder and Westbrook, this is a tough spot. OKC just played their biggest game of the season, as they hosted Durant and the Warriors on Saturday. Now they have to fly out to Washington for a quick 1-game road trip before returning home for a game against the Knicks on Wednesday leading into the All-Star break. I just don't see the Thunder showing up here.
It's also worth noting that OKC won 126-115 at home over the Wizards back on 11/30 (prior to them playing well). That sets up a great trend, as the Wizards are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games when revenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more.
SPORTS WAGERS
COLUMBUS -1½ +227 over N.Y. Rangers
The Rangers have won five in a row and scored exactly four goals in each of their last four victories. That's nice but New York winning games is simply not justified. Shots on goals or Corsi numbers aren’t everything but the entire picture when put together reveals the same old story for the Rangers. New York is constantly playing in its own end. During their current four-game home winning streak, the Rags outshot the opposition zero times. Even the Colorado Avalanche outshot and out-Corsied the Rangers on Saturday night. In New York’s 4-3 victory over Nashville last Thursday, the Preds held a significant puck possession edge, outshot the Rags 37-30 and out-Corsied them 55% to 45%. We could go on and on or break it down game by game but it’s not necessary because we’d discover the same thing over and over. The Rangers get outplayed almost every night. For whatever reason, they score on a high percentage of their shots and the “great shooters” argument holds no weight. They score a slew of soft goals to which there is no explanation for other than “puck luck” being on their side. The Rangers are not a top-10 team, they are not a cup contender and once again, just like last season, they are a disaster waiting to happen unless they shore up their wasteland of a defense at the trade deadline. The Rangers are extremely likely to get badly outplayed here and if they beat us, so be it.
By contrast, the Jackets are rarely getting outplayed. Despite going 2-2 over its last four games, Columbus has held a significant edge in Corsi For and shots on goal in all four games. The Jackets are fully healthy once again and the last time they were this healthy, they reeled off 16 wins in a row.
We’ve gone over our -1½-goal strategy before and the more we follow it, the more we like it. Last Thursday, there were 11 games on the NHL slate with three of those going into OT. All eight of the other games were decided by two goals or more. On Friday, there were only two games and one went into OT. The other result was 5-2 for Chicago over Winnipeg. On Saturday, there were 13 games and only two went into OT, which left 11 games that did not. Of those 11 games, nine of them were decided by two goals or more. Finally, on Sunday (yesterday) there were six games and none went into OT but all six were decided by two goals or more. Whether you are playing favorites or underdogs, spotting 1½-goals has tremendous value attached to it because of the price and the potential empty netter involved and it is something we are absolutely going to devote an entire year to next season. Playing dogs, one only needs to hit one out of four games to make money while winning one out of three with favorites will also produce a profit. These are GREAT VALUE plays that we trust will pay off over time.
Arizona +165 over CALGARY
OT Included. The “bye week”. Here is how it went down during meetings last season:
The NHL will work in a five-day "bye week" next season as part of the negotiation with the NHL Players' Association to sign off on the All-Star format changes announced this week, according to sources. In an important gain for the players, which they got in return for accepting the three-on-three All-Star Game format, the league will build in a five-day bye week for each team into their schedule between Jan. 1 and Feb. 28 next season. Players will be completely off with no practice during this break. There will be practice permitted after 4 p.m. local time on the fifth day if there is a game on the sixth day; otherwise no practice will be allowed on the fifth day. The league and NHLPA are staging a World Cup of Hockey next season, which could prove to be a taxing workload for the top players involved. But the break is seen by the union as beneficial to all players given the grind of the NHL season.
After the Devils lost to the Sharkies yesterday, 4-1, teams’ coming off their bye are now 1-6 with only winner being the Arizona Coyotes, who beat Winnipeg, 4-3 but got outshot 37-29. Coming off their bye yesterday, New Jersey got outshot in the first period, 19-3, which is just another example of just how flat these teams can be. Next up are the Calgary Flames, who come off its bye right here. The bye for the Flames came at the worst possible time, as they were heating up and had just won four of their previous five games, which included a 3-2 OT win in Pittsburgh just prior. Not only are teams’ flat coming off their bye, but take inconsistent goaltenders and give them five full days off with no practice and that’s just another potential obstacle that has disaster written all over it. That applies to both Chad Johnson and Brian Elliott.
The Coyotes have picked up points in six of their last eight games, which included a win in San Jose and a victory over Pittsburgh on Saturday night. Arizona has scored three goals or more in four straight games and in nine of its past 10. The only time in which they failed to score three over that span was when they scored twice against the stingy Kings. This is a group that is feeling pretty good about its game right now but more than all of that is these wagers against teams' coming off a bye will continue because it has proven to be a strong angle that we pointed out and started attacking from Day 1.
We are breaking this down in two bets. We’re playing the Coyotes -1½ +461 for 1 unit and +164 for the other unit to make up our traditional two-unit wager.
Therefore the bets are as follows:
Arizona -1½ +461 (Risking 1 unit)
Arizona +164 (Risking 1 unit).
SPORTS WAGERS
TEXAS TECH +124 over Baylor
Baylor is a lock to make the main event with just over a month to go. Selection Sunday is also just around the corner and tournament cronies have ranked both three-loss Kansas and these Bears as #1 seeds ahead of undefeated Gonzaga. Baylor is a damn good team and we're not here to discredit what they've accomplished this season. With most other teams in the Big 12 on the bubble, Baylor has a huge target on its back, as the rest of the conference fights for their postseason lives. The Bears have won 17 of their last 22 games with Texas Tech, including six of their last seven in Lubbock so we can understand the market’s difficulty of getting behind this dog. Thing is, Baylor has accomplished its goal to make the main event and to be a high seed. There is virtually nothing left for them to do except play out the string and wait for its seeding. Motivation here does not figure to be high, especially with #3 Kansas on deck next Saturday in Lubbock. This is Baylor’s only game until then and it is likely to be viewed as more of an inconvenience. Again, Baylor’s last big game before the post-season is Saturday against Kansas.
Texas Tech is a fringe tournament team that has some signature wins already and they are in search for more. The Red Raiders nearly got one on Saturday afternoon in a 80-79 home loss to Kansas. Despite the disappointing result, it was a great performance by the Red Raiders against one of the top teams in the country. If there was such a thing as a bad loss, that was it. Tech has already defeated then #7 West Virginia, then #25 K-State and lost by just four against these Bears in Baylor less than a month ago. A win here solidifies the Red Raiders portfolio so much so that the Committee has no choice but to have a close look at them. Tech is a very respectful 16-9. A win here over a top-program puts them at 17-9 with another ranked program on deck in West Virginia. Tech is in control of its own fate. They have proven to be a very difficult out on many occasions but nobody is talking about them. We now find the host in an incredibly favorable spot with huge motivation behind them and thus, we’re calling them to win it outright.
Will Rogers
New Orleans vs. Phoenix
Pick: Phoenix
The set-up: The 21-34 New Orleans Pelicans visit the Western Conference-worst 17-38 Phoenix Suns on Monday night. The Pelicans followed up an impressive win at Minnesota in the opener of a four-game road trip with a 105-99 loss at Sacramento last night and are now 3 1/2 games out of the West's final playoff spot.The Suns enter the contest with just two wins in their last 11 games but do expect that leading scorer Eric Bledsoe sill be back in the lineup after he was rested in the team's 133-102 loss at Houston on Saturday.
New Orleans: All Star Anthony Davis (28.2 & 12.1) was his usual self last night, scoring 32 points (now has 30-plus in five of his last eight!). However, the Pelicans lost for the sixth time in their last eight games. One wonders if the Pelicans will ever jell, as Davis gets little help up front, as the 6-9 Jones (11.5 & 5.1) is the best of the group and he sat out his second-straight game with a sprained right thumb last night. It is unclear whether he will partake in Monday's matchup against the Suns.
Phoenix: The Suns gave star point PG Eric Bledsoe (21.2-4.9-6.1) the night off Saturday in hopes the rest will help resolve some recent shooting issues. Bledsoe shot just 22 of 66 (33.3 percent) in his past five games. His backcourt partner Devin Booker (21.2) is blossoming into a star as of late, scoring 20 or more points in 18 of his past 20 games, including a stretch of 16 consecutive games in the 20s. The 20-year-old became the youngest player in NBA history to compile such a streak.
The pick: these are two poor defensive teams, with New Orleans allowing 106.8 PPG (23rd) and Phoenix allowing 112.7 PPG (29th). This marks the fourth meeting between these teams and there's not much to chose from. They split one-point overtime decisions, each winning on the road, in their first two contests this year. Then, the Pelicans pulled out a 111-106 victory on Feb. 6 in New Orleans, outscoring Phoenix 9-4 down the stretch. The bet here says, it's the Suns turn!
Power Sports
Memphis vs. Brooklyn
Pick: Brooklyn
No one wants to play Brooklyn right now, if ever, but they've been a lot more competitive of late. Their last seven losses have all been by single digits. Yes, by Nets standards, that's considered a positive! But in all seriousness, while still always coming up short, they've have been playing better. I certainly wouldn't be comfortable laying this many points with Memphis on the road. Needless to say, this will be the most pts the Grizzlies lay in any road game all year.
Memphis' last game was a home loss to Golden State. Previously, they were 2-0 vs. the Dubs this season. But the third time was the charm for Golden State as they rolled up 122 points Friday night. Obviously, there isn't a more steep decline in class in terms of opponent than what the Grizz are experiencing here. But might that lead to a bit of a letdown? I'm banking on it. Memphis is 0-6 ATS this season when taking the court w/ exactly two days of rest. They are also 0-7 ATS vs. the Atlantic Division.
Brooklyn had an 11-point lead over Miami in the third quarter Friday night. They took Washington to overtime last Wednesday. It was only a four-point loss at Charlotte last Tuesday. They led Indiana in the fourth quarter the game before that. The same was true in the game before that, against the Knicks. Will they finally win one tonight? Not sure. But they will keep it close.
Mike Rose
Louisville at Syracuse
Play: Under 141
Syracuse is highly dependent upon being able to convert at a high clip from downtown. For the season, it ranks #31 in 3-point shooting with it averaging 8.9 makes per game. A figure that drops to 7.7 over its last three games. Louisville just so happens to rank No. 3 at defending the arc, so the Orange is going to have to find some success closer to the basket to come out of this one alive.
Rick Pitino has had Jim Boeheim’s number of late. The Ville exploded in the second half of last year’s meeting outscoring the Orange 44-31 to pull out the 72-58 win and cover as 9 point chalk. Syracuse’s inability to sustain offense in the second stanza ended up costing it dearly, and I expect that unit to have another rough go of it in this rematch as well.
If you take the Virginia game out of the equation, Louisville has allowed 67 or less points in four of its L/5 games. While Syracuse has proven to be resilient over the course of its win streak battling back from big deficits to win on a number of occasions, I just don’t see it happening in this one against a Louisville team it doesn’t match up well against.
Dave Essler
Texas Tech +3
Going to grab this while we can. I was very reluctant to fade Baylor again after what they did to TCU down low. Their length was too much. When these teams met last time in Baylor, the Raiders lost by four, 65-61. In that game Tech sent Baylor to the line 28 times (to 10) and they made 26 of them. I suspect Tech gets some calls at home. Baylor also committed 16 turnovers to Tech's 7. Also in that game T-Tech actually shot 50% from inside (dreadful from outside) - so even SOME regression in the outside shooting at home and they should be fine.