Free Picks for Monday, February 6th, 2017, from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
THUNDER AT PACERS
PLAY: PACERS -4.5
I got a winner with the Thunder on Sunday, as they managed to win by just enough to cover at home against Portland.
That was a pretty hard fought game and Oklahoma City hasn’t done well playing without rest. Complicating matters here for the Thunder is that Indiana is rested, and the Pacers have been a very solid home team, standing a robust 19-6 straight up in the host role this season.
Indy is on a tear currently, as they’ll be rolling into this evening’s game on a 6-0 run where they’re also 5-0-1 vs. the line. A hot home team vs. a potentially weary visitor looks good to me, so I’m on the Pacers minus the points tonight.
Scott Spreitzer
Louisville vs. Virginia
Play: Virginia -4
Both teams play outstanding basketball on the defensive end, but Virginia certainly didn't live up to its rep in the second half of their weekend loss at Syracuse. The Cavaliers led 34-22 at halftime, but Syracuse opened up the floor to start the second half and finished making 73.7% of their FGA over the final 20 minutes, including 67% of their 3-pointers. Tony Bennett will be looking for his troops to clamp down on the defensive end in this one and I suspect they will. The Cavaliers have presented Rick Pitino with scheme and matchup problems, beating Louisville in four of the last five meetings. The Cardinals are on a 3-game winning and covering streak, but the competition gets much tougher tonight. Louisville enters on a 1-6-1 ATS slide as a road dog, while UVA is on a 7-0, 100% ATS run as a home favorite of less than seven points.
Stephen Nover
Cavs vs. Wizards
Play: Under 220
Not only is this the Wizards' most important game of the season, but it's their biggest home game in years. Packed crowd. Nationally televised. Amped up 100 percent to play the defending world champion Cavaliers. Yes, I could envision the Wizards being tight under the pressure and spotlight. Things they're not normally accustomed to. But I'm not going to fade the Wizards at home where they have won 17 in a row. Instead I'm going under the total. Sure there's star power in this matchup headed by LeBron James and John Wall, having his finest season. That's why the total is high. Lost among the glitter, though, is the solid defense both Cleveland and Washington have been playing. The Wizards have held their last five opponents to an average of 96 points. The Cavaliers have permitted an average of 99 points in their past four games. The teams met back in Washington on Nov. 11 in their lone matchup this season. The Cavaliers won, 105-94, for a total of 199 points. Kyrie Irving led the Cavaliers with 29 points. Irving is questionable having missed the Cavaliers' previous game because of a sore quad.
Will Rogers
Phoenix vs. New Orleans
Pick: Phoenix
The set-up: The 16-35 Phoenix Suns and the 19-32 New Orleans Pelicans meet for the third time this season, tonight in New Orleans. Each of the first two meetings have gone to OT, with the Suns winning in New Orleans back on Nov. 4 and the Pelicans returning the fvor on Nov. 11 in Phoenix.
Phoenix: The Suns are coming off a 25-point home loss on Saturday to the Bucks, although the 20-year-old Devin Booker continue his outstanding play. He scored 31 points and has reached the 20-point mark in 16 straight games, the fifth-longest run in team history. He's averaged 26.6 PPG in that 16-game streak, upping his average on the season to 21.2 PPG. Teamed with PG Bledsoe (21.4-5.0-6.2), Phoenix has an incredibly young and talented backcourt (Bledsoe is 27). Center Tyson Chandler has totaled double digits in rebounds in 11 of his last 15 games but the Sun's defense (or rather, their lack thereof), continues to haunt them. Phoenix allows 112.6 PPG, more than any team other than the sad-sack Nets. Opponents shoot 47.4 percent against them, ranking 28th of 30 teams.
New Orleans: The Pelicans have lost four in a row and five of their last seven but own wins over the Cavs and Spurs in that span (go figure?). Despite the team's struggles, All Star forward Anthony Davis (27.8 & 12.2) has five straight double-doubles, averaging 25.2 points and 15.4 rebounds while shooting 51.6 percent in that span. That said, the Pelicans have been guilty of collapsing down the stretch way too often. That was the case Saturday in Washington, as they failed to score in the final 5:50 of that contest.
The pick: Not sure one can trust either team very much but with Booker and Bledsoe 'on fire' and Anthony Davis having tweaked his lower right leg in Saturday's loss at Washington, I'm taking the points (remember, each of the first two meetings this year have gone to OT!).
Big Al
Philadelphia vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit
Detroit lost earlier this year to the 76ers by double-digits, 97-79. But home teams are a solid 148-100 ATS in the regular season when playing with revenge from a double-digit home upset loss earlier in the season. And the Pistons are 10-1 ATS at home when playing with revenge from a loss in which it scored less than 85 points.
Larry Ness
San Antonio vs. Memphis
Pick: Memphis
The rodeo comes to San Antonio every year at this time and for the last 14 years, the Spurs have turned a negative into a positive. San Antonio began with an 8-1 trip back in 2003 and check in at 82-35 overall, experiencing just one losing trip in that span, two years ago when the team went 4-5 (Spurs bounced back to go 7-1 last season!). This year's trip will encompass 7,378 miles and three time zones.
The Spurs have been great on the road so far this season, kicking off their latest "Rockin' Rodeo Road Trip" (as coined in the team's game notes) with a 20-4 SU & 15-8-1 ATS record in road games, so far this season. However, this marks the first time the Spurs will be going on this trip without Tim Duncan. As for Parker and Ginobili, they are now more role players than stars, as Parker averages 11.1 PPG and 4.7 APG in about 25 MPG (37 games) and Ginobili 8.1-2.4-2.4 in just under 19 minutes in playing 43 games. SF Leonard (25.3 & 5.8 ) and PF Aldridge (17.5 & 7.2) are now the stars. Yes the Spurs still own great depth but they miss center Gasol (11.7 & 7.9), who won't be back until late February or early March.
The Grizzlies were able to cap a six-game road trip at 4-2 by rallying from an 18-point deficit for a 107-99 victory in Minnesota on Saturday. Memphis averaged 109.0 PPG on 47.9 percent shooting on their trip and are well-aware of the Spurs ability to win on the road (or anywhere for that matter), as the Grizzlies return home. In fact, San Antonio has won five straight meetings with Memphis and 16 of the last 20.
However, All-Star center Marc Gasol (21.0 & 6.0) and guard Tony Allen (9.4 PPG and the team's best perimeter defender) were held out of Saturday's game, so both will be fresh for this one. PF Randolph asked for more "PT" and he responded by averaging 16.1 & 9.5 in January. PG Conley didn't make the All Star squad but he's averaging a career-best 19.7 PPG. Never really totally comfortable going against the Spurs but I will take the home team in this one.
Jim Feist
Spurs at Grizzlies
Pick: Under
San Antonio is dynamite on defense, second in the NBA in points allowed, 11-5 under the total against the NBA Southwest division. Memphis is #25 in points scored, focusing on defense first. At home Memphis is 21-7-2 under the total. And the Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Nelly
Miami Heat + over Minnesota Timberwolves
Miami has delivered consecutive wins to complete turn around its season. Much of the year the Heat have had one of the league's worst records but they now are 21-30 and just two games behind Detroit for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Miami's average scoring differential is just -1.5 and the Heat have one of the best scoring defenses in the league, leading the Eastern Conference with just 101.9 points per game allowed. A Minnesota team that has been one of the league's biggest disappointments got bad news last week with rising star Zach LaVine injured and now out for the season. Despite a 19-32 record Minnesota's scoring differential is the eighth best in the Western Conference despite the Wolves placed 13th in the current standings but Minnesota is 5-13 ATS when favored by fewer than six points this season and with three straight defeats ending a run of a competitive play this is a team that will once again have to play for next season. Minnesota is 1-7 ATS the past eight games still valued on potential and while the winning streak for the Heat has mostly come at home the Heat have covered in three of the last four road games. The road team has won outright in seven of the last 10 in this series and riding the winning streak makes sense even with a light underdog price.
Anthony Michael
Kansas -3.5
Just the wrong place at the wrong time here for Kansas State. Kansas will be mad as ever coming off of their first home loss in forever. Kansas has covered 29 of the last 41 meetings with Kansas State - look for them to be super focused here off of their rare home loss. This one is Kansas for the win and cover.
Scott Rickenbach
Dallas vs. Denver
Play:Denver -2½
Though the Mavericks have gotten healthier and are playing much better basketball, they are simply in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight. Playing in the thin air of Denver is always tough on road foes but it is especially tough when the Nuggets are off of an ugly loss and will come out fired up to respond. After getting hammered by two dozen points at San Antonio Saturday, Denver will respond at home tonight. The Nuggets are 12-5 SU and ATS when they are a home favorite of 3 points or less and Denver also was on a 9-3 ATS run before the ugly loss to the Spurs. The home team has won 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams and the two games this season have both been decided by double digit margins. Only 1 of the last 6 meetings has been decided by less than 6 points. The number on tonight's game is certainly "small chalk" to lay when you consider the home dominance in this match-ups. We are getting a manageable number here because of the Mavs recent hot play but Dallas is still just 2-2 SU and ATS in its last 4 road games. The Mavericks are also 4-8 SU this season when off of an upset win as an underdog and they are 15-22 ATS the past 3 seasons combined when they are off of a game they won outright as a dog. The Nuggets will prove to be the hungrier team tonight and they've been the much stronger team on the boards in comparison with Dallas. Look for the home team to dominate the glass in this one.
Art Aronson
Cleveland at Washington
Play: Washington +1½
Washington comes in with a ton of momentum, it’s won seven straight and 17 consecutive in front of the home town crowd. Now it gets to avenge a 105-94 setback to Cleveland at home back on November 11th. The Cavs average 110 PPG, while the Wizards average 107. Cleveland allows 104.8, while Washington allows 104.7. Note that the Cavaliers are just 2-4 ATS as underdogs this season, while the Wizards are 18-7 ATS in trying to revenge a loss against an opponet.
Jimmy Boyd
Spurs vs. Grizzlies
Play: Spurs -3
San Antonio has owned the Grizzlies of late. They swept the season series last year, have won 5 in a row total and are 16-4 in the last 20 meetings. Add in the fact that the Spurs are a ridiculous 20-5 on the road this season and I think there's some decent value here with San Antonio as a short road favorite. Not that this isn't a great spot for Memphis, who just finished up a 6-game road trip at Minnesota on Saturday. The Grizzlies will be dealing with jet lag and tired legs as this will be their 7th game in the last 11 nights. While Memphis has been traveling, the Spurs just got done playing 4 straight at home.
Last time out the San Antonio won 121-97 at home against the Nuggets and that sets up some strong trends, as the Spurs are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 off a blowout win by 15 or more points and 15-4 ATS in their last 19 after scoring 110 or more points. Grizzlies are just 14-25 ATS in their last 39 after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record.
David Banks
Kansas @ Kansas State
Pick: Kansas St. +3.5
No. 3 Kansas faces in-state rival Kansas State in a Big 12 clash on Monday night. The Jayhawks have an interesting stretch of conference games facing No. 5 Baylor on Feb. 1 and a pretty good Iowa State team on Feb. 4 before traveling to take on the Wildcats. The Jayhawks defeated eighth-ranked Kentucky, 79-73, in the SEC-Big 12 challenge. The win came on the heels of the Jayhawks second loss of the season, an 85-69 setback at the hands of No. 18 West Virginia. It was the first conference loss of the season for Kansas (19-2, 7-1).
If the Wildcats (15-6, 4-4) are going to pull the upset, they will have to play just a hair better than they did on Jan. 3. Kansas recorded a 90-88 win when Svi Mykhailiuk drove the length of the court for the game-winning layup. Kansas State matched the Jayhawks in virtually every phase of the game. The Wildcats shot 51 percent to the Jayhawks’ 53. Each team had 33 rebounds and while Kansas outshot KSU from 3-point range (50 percent to 33), the Wildcats had fewer turnovers (15 to 9).
Kansas State does not have the scorers that Kansas does, but Barry Brown (12.9 ppg) leads four players that average at least 11.5 points per game. The Wildcats will have to slow down leading scorer Frank Mason III (19.9 ppg). If they do that, they still have to contend with Josh Jackson (15.7 ppg) and Devonte Graham (13.6). Mykhailiuk averages 10.6 per game and 6-10 senior Landen Lucas hit all six of his shots against Kentucky and scored 13 points. He can score when given the opportunity. When Jackson, a freshman, and Mason, a senior, each score at least 20 points, the Jayhawks are 3-0. The pair combined for 41 against Kentucky.
Chip Chirimbes
Clippers at Raptors
Play: Clippers +5
Both these clubs got off to quick starts this season but have been derailed for one reason or another. Los Angeles of course has been beset with injuries to key personnel but has still managed to over 60% of their games while the Raptors who are also at 60% have lost eight of their past 11. The Raptors are playing without leading scorer DeMar DeRozen while the Clippers are without Chris Paul. Blake Griffin has returned and L.A. Has dropped their last two after a five-game winnings streak. Even though the Clips are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings in Toronto and 8-20 ATS in the last 28 meetings they come to play tonight.