Brad Wilton
Monday night comp play release is Monmouth as they make the short drive to Rider and gain revenge on a Broncos team that dumped them 93-90 in overtime on New Year's Eve in West Long Branch in a game the Hawks were listed as the -13 1/2 point chalk.
Monmouth is seeking their 20th win of the season, and while they have won 9 straight, the Hawks are just 4-5 against the spread in those 9 victories.
Rider though, has been sliding as we head towards the end of the regular season, as the Broncs have dropped 6 of their last 8 games both straight up and against the spread.
The Broncos are also just 2-4 straight up the last 6 times they have faced Monmouth, failing 2 of the last 3 against the spread.
I say lay it with Monmouth as they hit the 20-win plateau with a ringing road win and cover.
4* MONMOUTH
Chris Jordan
I love Cleveland plus the points today, as it should defeat the Wizards outright.
While there are some who believe the Wizards are playjng their best basketball right now, I urge you to look at their schedule and see who they've beaten. Losing teams donot give you a good enough gauge, so against a team like this, it's time for a wake-up call.
Cleveland has won 4 of 5 since struggling during a losing streak. The Cavaliers are back to playing team basketball and have caught fire in time to close the first half strong.
Take the road pup.
5* CAVALIERS
Brandon Lee
Heat vs. Wolves
Play: Heat Pk
The Heat have came out of nowhere to go 10-0 SU and 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games and I'm willing to jump on this hot streak and back Miami at Minnesota. The Timberwolves are trending in the opposite direction. They have lost 3 straight and are a miserable 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games. It's been a disappointing year for Minnesota and it got worse recently when they found out Zach LaVine is out for the season. I also think this is a good matchup for Miami, as they have the talent in Whiteside to counter Karl-Anthony Towns. Wolves are also just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against the Eastern Conference and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home.
John Martin
Clippers/Raptors Under 213.5
Both the Los Angeles Clippers and Toronto Raptors played Sunday. The Clippers lost to the Celtics 102-107, while the Raptors edged the Nets 103-95. Now they will both be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. The Clippers will be playing their 4th game in 6 days, while the Raptors will be playing their 5th game in 7 days. Neither team will have much left to give tonight, and I expect their tired legs to lead to struggles on the offensive end. Look for this game to stay well UNDER the posted total of 213.5 Monday night.
Mike Lundin
Thunder vs. Pacers
Play: Pacers -3½
We won with the Oklahoma City -4.5 as a top rated premium pick when they defeated Portland 105-99 on Sunday, but I'm fading the Thunder here when they visit the Indiana Pacers the very next night. Indiana has won six on the bounce, going 5-0-1 ATS during that stretch and the Pacers are a solid 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games. The Thunder lack depth with Enes Kanter sidelined, and I think they'll struggle with the intensity here in the second leg of a back-to-back set. Let's go with the Pacers.
Black Widow
Spurs vs. Grizzlies
Play: Grizzlies +3
Bets on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Memphis), in a game involving two poor defensive teams that give up between 98-102 points per game, after a combined score of 205 points or more in three straight games are 23-3 ATS since 1996. This is the Grizzlies' first chance at revenge on the Spurs after getting swept by them in the playoffs last year. They were playing with a bunch of D league players in that series due to injuries. But now the Grizzlies are at full strength and looking for revenge in their first meeting with the Spurs in the 2016-17 season.
Dave Price
Jazz/Hawks Under 197
The Key: Two of the best defensive teams in the NBA square off tonight as the Utah Jazz travel to face the Atlanta Hawks. The Jazz rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while the Hawks are right behind them in 4th. That's why it is no surprise that these teams tend to play in low-scoring games when they meet up. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings with combined scores of 163, 175, 193, 190 and 197 points. That's an average of 183.6 combined points per game. As you can see, they haven't topped 197 points in any of the 5 meetings.
Dave Price
Jazz/Hawks Under 197
The Key: Two of the best defensive teams in the NBA square off tonight as the Utah Jazz travel to face the Atlanta Hawks. The Jazz rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while the Hawks are right behind them in 4th. That's why it is no surprise that these teams tend to play in low-scoring games when they meet up. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings with combined scores of 163, 175, 193, 190 and 197 points. That's an average of 183.6 combined points per game. As you can see, they haven't topped 197 points in any of the 5 meetings.
Jack Jones
New Orleans Pelicans -5.5
The New Orleans Pelicans will be highly motivated for a victory at home here Monday night against the Phoenix Suns. They have lost four straight coming in with three of those coming on the road. Two were against the hottest team in the NBA in the Wizards, while the other two were against the Pistons and Raptors.
But now the Pelicans get a break in their schedule as they face the lowly Phoenix Suns, who are just 16-35 on the season and have lost six of their last seven games coming in. Their only victory came against the Sacramento Kings by a final of 105-103. Their last four losses have all come by double-digits.
The Suns are a tired team right now as they will be playing their 4th game in 6 days. Meanwhile, this will only be the 2nd game in 5 days for the Pelicans, so they own a clear scheduling advantage in tonight's matchup.
The Suns are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last five Monday games.
SPORTS WAGERS
Buffalo +107 over NEW JERSEY
The Devils have picked up points in in seven of their last 10 games including a 5-1 win at Columbus last time out but we're not ready to crown New Jersey a playoff contender just yet. Despite their recent success, the Devils are giving up a ton of chances. Jersey has surrendered 30 or more shots in seven of their last 10 games. Much of the damage the Devils have done has been against Western Conference opponents, on the road. The Devils' road/home splits are as lopsided as they come. While New Jersey has won six straight games on the road they've dropped seven straight at “The Rock”. New Jersey exploded for five goals against the Blue Jackets but it's not often they hang a crooked number on the board and chances are great they regress to here to scratching and clawing their way to try and score twice. Jersey ranks just 26th in goals scored and are 18th in goals against by giving up 2.83 goals per game.
The Sabres have been playing much better lately but the results just haven't been there. Although they've picked up points in five of their last seven games, Buffalo has won just one of their last four games but it's not from a lack of effort. The Sabres are firing a slew of pucks at the net with over 30 shots a game in each of their last 10. With that kind of volume, it’s only a matter of time before some of those pucks hit the back of the net. Buffalo has seven players with double digit goals this season and they are getting healthier on the back end after welcoming both Josh Gorges and Jake McCabe back into the lineup. After a 4-0 win over the Senators Saturday night, the Sabres have some much need momentum and confidence coming into this one. Although Buffalo sits dead last in the East, they are just seven points behind the Flyers for the final Wild Card with 31 games to play. A healthy Sabres’ team with strong goaltending offers up all the value here against a team that has been on its heels at home all season long.
SPORTS WAGERS
Holy Cross +10½ over BUCKNELL
Holy Cross is the defending Patriot League champion that fought its way to the Men’s Basketball Tournament in the most candid of ways in the 2015-16 season by qualifying in what was nothing short of an ugly duckling turning into a Beautiful Swan story. The Crusaders’ path to greatness began after they finished their regular season 10-19 with an abysmal defeat at Boston University. Holy Cross had to essentially play in to the Quarterfinals of the Patriot League tournament by virtue of taking down the #8 seed Loyola, Maryland (a team that defeated them twice by considerable margins in the 2015-16 regular season) before they would ignite and take down this Bucknell team in overtime who was the #1 seed in that format. The rest is history, as the Crusaders would complete the run and capture the Patriot League title, reinforcing the notion that truly anything can happen in college hoops and/or in a one and done scenario. However, it didn’t end there. Holy Cross had to leave Worcester, Massachusetts and take on Southern University in a play-in game to the Men’s Basketball Tournament in Dayton, Ohio. Once again, the Crusaders would prevail and earn a first round date with #1 seed Oregon before the Ducks would send them on their way. That’s a brief history lesson on the Crusaders that nobody really cares about. We don’t either, as this wager is all about value and thus, the fade on the favorite is on.
As for history lessons, well, the Bison have been a consistent player in vying for the Men’s Basketball Tournament on an annual basis and have even pulled off one of the all-time classic upsets when they took down Kansas in the First Round in the 2005 Dance. Bucknell’s overall dominance of the Patriot League so far this season has been impressive. The Bison steamrolled the Crusaders in the revenge match (from being knocked out last year) so they already have that out of the way and now this team seems to be on a mission to avenge what they should have had last season. Bucknell comes in at 10-1 in conference play and 18-6 overall, which is far more appealing to the 12-12 record of Holy Cross who sit sixth currently in the Patriot League standings. Despite the notoriety that Bucknell has gained as a projected #14 seed in the Big Dance according to many bracketologists, the Bison are just 1-0 ATS. That one ATS victory came as an outright victor against Vanderbilt in November 2016 as a 12-point pup. While we haven’t seen Bucknell for sale since then, it has nonetheless emerged on the national radar and you know our stance on that. Bucknell’s current prominence means that if you bet them here, you would be paying a premium to do so and we look to take inflated points and not spot them. That applies here.
KANSAS ST +3 over Kansas
As a perennial college hoops powerhouse, it’s no shock to see Kansas once again ranked in the top three but the Jayhawks are in the middle of a crucial part of their conference schedule. Kansas has wins over #15 Kentucky and number #4 Baylor in two of their last three games but had their 54-game home win streak ended by Iowa State on Saturday. A loss to ISU is nothing to be ashamed of but it was the way the Jayhawks went down that has us concerned. KU led by 14-points at the half after shooting 70 percent and out-rebounding the Cyclones 19-3 before sleep walking through the second half and losing 92-89 in overtime. As impressive as the Jayhawks home win streak was it, almost ended earlier this season in a huge rivalry game with Kansas State but with the score tied late, KU forward Sviatoisla Mykhailiuk took an inbound pass to the rack for a game winning layup. Although he travelled, it was not called and the Jayhawks won the game.
If you play ball in the state of Kansas and you're not a Jayhawk, you're always going to be second fiddle. K-State is unranked and has lost four straight games in this series including that aforementioned heart-breaker in Lawrence. Although they are coming off a 56-54 win at Baylor, the Wildcats may be undervalued after losing three straight prior to that. The Baylor win was K-State's first victory over a top-5 program in five years and their “best” win since beating top ranked Kansas in 1994. “Revenge” is usually an angle we like to avoid, as it's often nothing more than a talking point but this one has a much different tone. Nobody has to tell the Jayhawks how big games in Manhattan can be, but the fact that Kansas is entering this year’s trip down I-70 on the heels of a heartbreaking home loss over the weekend should only sharpen the Jayhawks’ focus. However, that only matters so much, as plenty of Kansas teams have walked into Bramlage Coliseum focused only to come unraveled when the Wildcats get rolling on the home crowd and the famed “Octagon of Doom” gets things rocking. K-State is more dangerous now than they have been in a long time and as long as they don’t get caught up the moment, they can win this one outright.
Bryan Leonard
Quinnipiac at Fairfield
Play: Quinnipiac +5
The Stags are getting way too much credit for how it has played the last three games at home. Big wins over Niagara, Manhattan and Marist by a combined 59 points. But keep in mind this team had lost five straight before that.
Quinnipiac is 6-7 in conference and by our ratings should only be a small underdog in this contest. Look for Fairfield to come back down to earth here as this game goes down to the wire.
Oskeim Sports
Louisville vs. Virginia
Play: Louisville +6.5
The Cardinals are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall, including going 5-0-1 ATS in their last six ACC affairs, 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road tilts and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a win by 20-plus points. Louisville is also a profitable 37-20-1 ATS as a conference underdog versus .800 or greater opponents, including 8-1 ATS when avenging a loss of five or more points.
Louisville takes the floor boasting an impressive 18-5-1 ATS mark as a road underdog off consecutive wins and has won its previous three games by a combined 98 points! The Cardinals are an extremely well-balanced squad, rating 8.0 points per game better than average offensively (78.5 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 70.5 points per game) and 13.9 points per game better than average defensively (62.3 points per game to teams that would combine to average 76.2 points per game).
Over its last five games, Louisville is averaging an incredible 88.2 points on 52.1% shooting from the field and 43.2% from beyond the arc. Over that same period of time, the Cardinals are limiting opponents to just 37.5% shooting from the floor and 27.4% from three-point territory. Let's also note that the Cardinals are 7-3 SU and ATS in conference play wherein they are averaging 79.2 points per per game (47.8% FG%; 38.9% 3-PT%).
Virginia enters tonight's game with a pedestrian attack that is 0.8 points per game worse than average (68.9 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 69.7 points per game. The Cavaliers' offense isn't much better at home where they are averaging just 69.9 points per game. Even worse news for Virginia backers is the fact that head coach Tony Bennett's squad is trending in the wrong direction, averaging a pathetic 65.0 points over its last five contests.
The reason why I have backed off making Louisville a Best Bet is the fact that two players - forwards Mangok Mathiang and Deng Adel - are suspended for tonight's game. Adel is averaging 11.1 points in 28:23 minutes per game, while Mathiang is averaging 7.1 points in 19:39 minutes per game. These suspensions come on the heels of losing guard Quentin Snider, who remains out with a hip flexor strain. In 18 games this season, Snider was averaging 12.1 points and 4.0 assists per game.
Stephen Nover
Miami / Minnesota Over 205
The Heat have ramped up their offense. They have reached triple digits in each of their last eight games. Miami has scored 116 points or more in three of their last four games. Minnesota ranks 27th in defensive field goal percentage.
The Timberwolves can score. They've reached at 103 points in eight of their last 10 games. The over has cashed in each of Minnesota's past five games.
Brad Powers
Kansas -2.5
We have a classic "Buy Low/Sell High" game. Kansas is off their first home loss in 51 games (lost in OT to Iowa St) while Kansas St is off a 56-54 upset (+7) over Baylor. Prior to that the Wildcats had lost 3 straight games both SU/ATS. The Jayhawks haven't lost back-to-back games in 3-plus years and have dominated this series long-term with 43-5 SU/33-15 ATS marks the last 20 years. They did only beat Kansas St 90-88 (-13.5) back on January 3rd. On the personnel side, Kansas does get back forward Carlton Bragg (6 ppg, 5 rpg) who missed the last 3 games due to suspension. He's key because Kansas is a little depth-shy in their front court. I would have made this a premium play but I am a little worried that Kansas is only playing on one day rest off an OT game and traveling. However, we're certainly catching value off the disparate Saturday results as I have the game power-rated closer to Kansas -5.