Free Picks for Monday, January 16th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
CLEVELAND STATE AT OAKLAND
PLAY: OAKLAND -14.5
I happened to watch a good portion of Saturday’s game between Horizon rivals Detroit and Oakland. I had no particular interest in this game, but it caught my eye and I decided to stay with it on one of my TV’s. I’m glad I did, as it turned out to be a thriller that ended up with the lowly Titans pulling off a huge upset.
That Detroit win was cause for celebration as far as their players were concerned. Turns out they were treating this as what amounts to their game of the year, as this team isn’t going to any tournaments and Oakland is a definite rival.
The Titans obviously played they best game of the season, and I think it’s fair to offer that the Grizzlies didn’t take them seriously. Oakland was never really sharp in this game, but even so, they were up a dozen late in the first half and I’m sure they felt they had things well in hand.
The stat line tells the story, as Detroit got an insane performance from Jaleel Hogan and Oakland committed an unreal 25 turnovers. The Grizzlies had just 41 turnovers in their first four conference games and ended up with that absurd total against a team they simply had no business losing to.
Fast forward to this evening. I can’t fathom the notion that Oakland plays anywhere close to as sloppily as they did against Detroit. That’s bad news for a weak Cleveland State entry that has looked horrible in losing five of six league games. The Vikings are a really bad offensive team. They’re prone to giveaways, their outside shooting is pathetic and I suspect they’re in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight.
If Oakland takes the court steaming from the Detroit debacle, this game has an excellent chance to turn into a romp. I’ll play it that way by giving the points with the heavy home favorite.
Sleepyj
Washington -170
I'll play on the Wizards here at home tonight....Washington is very good at home, while the Trailblazers have struggled on the road this year...McCollum and Lillard are a very good 1-2 punch, but i worry that one or the other might press the issue here tonight..Blazers bench is a bit thin and this is the first of Portland's east coast trip...Washington is very good at turning teams over and I'm not sure that Portland will take care of the ball well enough to win tonight...Washington is a tough team to guard with all 5 spots and the Portland defense is by far one of the worst in the league...Washington has stepped up on the defensive end at home..I don't want to lay the points, but I feel good about the Wiz pulling out a win tonight in a good game.
Brandon Lee
Kansas vs. Iowa State
Play: Iowa State +2½
I'm backing the Cyclones at home against the Jayhawks on Monday. Iowa State's Hilton Coliseum is going to be electric tonight and I like the Cyclones chances of putting an end to Kansas' 16-game winning streak and perfect 5-0 start to Big 12 play. ISU has gone 7-1 at home this season and are primed for a big bounce back effort after a lackluster showing at TCU last time out. Kansas hasn't been playing great of late and are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. Cyclones are 34-19 ATS at home with a line of +3 to -3.
Jesse Schule
Philadelphia at Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee -7
The Bucks are young enough, and deep enough to get it done in the second game of a back to back. They host the Philadelphia 76ers tonight, and they are only asked to cover single digits. Milwaukee has won nine straight in this series, covering the spread in seven of those games. Six of those games were played in Milwaukee, and five of those games were decided by double digits. The Sixers had won five of six games prior to suffering a 109-93 loss at Washington on Saturday. They've only won four road games all year, and all of those wins came against the league's bottom feeders (Denver, Brooklyn, Detroit and New Orleans). There isn't a lot to gain here for a rebuilding Philly team, and I expect the Bucks to take care of business.
Jimmy Boyd
Creighton vs. Xavier
Play: Xavier -3½
I think this is a great price to back the Musketeers at home. Xavier is one of the better teams in the country and have an excellent home court edge. In fact, the Musketeers are 9-0 SU and 6-2 ATS at home this season. Creighton's a good team and have the better overall record, but this is their first serious test in a true road game. The Bluejays have one of the most efficient offenses in the country, but I think Xavier can give them problems here. The Musketeers are only allowing opposing teams to shoot just 40% from the field at home.
This game also means a lot more to Xavier, who is coming off back-to-back losses in road games against Butler and Villanova. Musketeers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games, while Creighton is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games as a dog of 6.5 or less points.
Mike Lundin
Pelicans vs. Pacers
Play: Pacers -5½
The Indiana Pacers had won five on the bounce prior to being embarrassed in a 140-112 loss to the Nuggets in London, England on Thursday. They've had plenty of time to recover physically and are 23-9-2 ATS in their last 34 games playing on three or more days rest and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. They'll host a New Orleans Pelicans team that makes its final stop on a five-game road trip. The Pelicans lost 107-99 at Chicago on Saturday and are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
The Pels won the first meeting of the season 102-95 home at New Orleans, but the Pacers are very strong in their own building (15-5 SU and 12-8 ATS). The Pacers are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in the series, and my money is on the home team in this contest.
Sean Murphy
Islanders vs. Bruins
Play: Bruins -200
We're being asked to pay a steep price to back the Bruins here, but I actually believe that number could be even higher.
The Bruins are just 3-4 over their last seven games but they're fresh off a 6-3 win over the Bruins on Saturday afternoon and I'm confident they'll keep it rolling against the Islanders in this spot.
Note that New York has been awful on the road this season, going 5-9-4. The Isles have dropped four of their last five games overall, giving up seven goals in a loss to the Hurricanes on Saturday.
New York did take the lone previous meeting between these two teams this season, that coming in Boston back in December. Prior to that, the Bruins had taken five straight meetings.
Mike Anthony
Creighton vs. Xavier
Play: Xavier -2½
Creighton visits Xavier on Monday afternoon in a matchup of Top-15 teams. The Musketeers collapsed in the second half of their past two games, and my simulations show the Bluejays quite possibly winning outright Monday and covering 67 percent of the time. Grab the points with a Creighton team whose only loss came to Villanova and is a very good team and well coached here on Monday afternoon.
Frank Jordan
Thunder vs. Clippers
Play: Thunder +7
Oklahoma City is in great position to make the playoffs this season despite the departure of Kevin Durant thanks to Russell Westbrook's MVP season and triple-double stats. The Clippers are rolling this season with a 28-14 and are on a six game winning streak. The Clippers are 16-6 at home and 19-9 in conference games. The Thunder are 10-11 on the road and 14-10 in conference games. These two teams met up in LA in early November with the Thunder winning a tight match up 85-83 with Westbrook going off for 35 points. A little over a week later in Oklahoma City the Clippers returned the favor with a 110-108 win despite a game high 29 from Westbrook. Two and a half weeks ago the Thunder beat the Clippers 114-88 as Westbrook went off for a 17-14-12 triple-double and did so in just 29 minutes of play. Look for the Thunder to continue to have the Clippers number as Westbrook collects another triple-double with 30+ points in a four point victory.
Larry Ness
Utah VS. Phoenix
Pick: Phoenix
A "star was born" in Mexico City this past Thursday and Saturday, as Phoenix guard Devin Booker (in just his second season after a one and done career at Kentucky in which he averaged just 10.0 PPG) had back-to-back games of 39 points! Actually, Booker's hot streak began before the Suns' trip south of the border, as he has averaged 31.0 points in his last five games, hitting 56 of his 102 shots (54.9 percent) and 17 of his 28 three-pointers (60.7 percent).
The Utah Jazz visit Phoenix on a three-game winning streak (all at home) that included a 100-92 victory over the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers last Tuesday. Saturday's 114-107 win over Orlando saw SG Rodney Hood (14.0 PPG) suffer a hyperextended and bruised right knee. The injury looked serious at first but at first looked serious but an MRI taken Sunday revealed no significant damage, allowing the Jazz franchise to breathe a collective sigh of relief. "Man, I know the feeling," Jazz backup Alec Burks told reporters after Saturday's game. Burks underwent knee surgery in the offseason and had three separate ankle procedures. He has returned to play six games, and had a season-best eight points Saturday in a season-high 15 minutes.
The Jazz have fought through injuries all season to become a real threat to win the Northwest Division (currently lead OKC by one game at 26-16). Defense has been Utah's strength all season, as the Jazz rank first in both points allowed (94.8 PPG) and opponents' FG percentage (43.0%) plus while the Jazz are near the bottom in points scored (999.0 PPG ranks 28th), the team shoots well (46.6% overall, including 37.0% on threes, both of which rank 8th). Gordon Hayward is now one of the league's best small forwards and along with center Rudy Gobert, are both making strong cases for All-Star consideration. Hayward is averaging a career-best 22.1 points per game this season on 46.8 percent shooting (adds 5.8 RPG and 3.6 APG). Gobert is imposing on the defensive end and has 10-plus rebounds in 27 straight games and has notched 28 double-doubles this season. Gobert is also averaging career highs in points (12.3 per game), rebounds (12.4) and blocks (2.5).
However, the Suns come into this contest having won three of five games (no small feat for a team with a 13-27 record) and Booker's (20.3 PPG on the season) play in Mexico City has had to give him confidence. Teamed with PG Bledose (20.0-5.0-5.9) and backup PG Knight (12.2), the Suns have an excellent backcourt. Yes, small forward T.J. Warren (14.0) is the Suns' lone scoring threat up front but center Tyson Chandler should be looking forward to his matchup with Gobert, as he comes in averaging 17.4 RPG over his last five.
The Jazz have hosted the Suns twice this season with wins by just seven and five points, respectively. Utah failed to cover either game and here at Talking Stick Resort Arena (do the Suns ever play an actual home game?), I look for Utah have plenty of trouble.
Jim Feist
Kansas at Iowa St
Pick: Over
Both teams like to run and are loaded with offensive talent. Kansas is on a 7-3 run over the total and the Jayhawks are 11-4 over the total against a team with a winning straight up record. Iowa State loves to run at home, 36-17 over the total as an underdog. And the Over is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings.
LV Traders
Monmouth at Canisius
Pick: Monmouth
Reggie Witherspoon is the best college basketball coach in the greater Buffalo area,(there, I said it) and betting against Canisius in the next few years will be rare. However, this is a spot where we have to take Monmouth. These two squads are on top of the MAAC and are playing for the 2nd time this season. Witherspoon is a genius but he's dealing with a pair of freshman point-guards and a team which is struggling in transition defense... up-tempo teams with good shooters give the Golden Griffins fits. It will be a great battle but Monmouth has too much talent and experience to let this one get away. The Hawks were tested by Canisius in December and see the significance of the game in the conference standings. The Hawks went North for the weekend with a goal of winning two games... with a focused effort Monday night they'll get it done and takeover sole possession of first place.
Wunderdog
Kansas @ Iowa State
Pick: Kansas -2.5
Kansas has a powerhouse team for Coach Bill Self, a veteran group anchored by senior point guard Frank Mason III (20.5 points, 5.5 assists per game). Kansas' 16-game winning streak is second longest in NCAA Division I, just behind Gonzaga (17). Kansas has a +16.0 scoring margin and is fifth in the nation shooting 50.1 from the field. The Jayhawks also average 7.1 steals and 5.4 blocked shots per game. Kansas is 8-3 ATS following a spread loss and faces an Iowa State team that can struggle defensively. They allowed 78 points in a showdown loss to Iowa as a six-point favorite. The Cyclones are coming off an 84-77 loss to TCU on Saturday as TCU shot 56.9 percent from the floor and won the rebound battle 36-27. Kansas is 32-12 SU against Iowa State, including winning nine of 14 at Iowa State under Self.
Buster Sports
Capitals at Penguins
Play: Over 5.5
Pittsburgh and Washington, two of the top teams in the NHL continue their rivalry tonight in Pittsburgh. These top clubs are heading in the wrong direction of late with Washington winning 9 in a row and the Penguins losing 3 in a row. The last two games have been high scoring affairs and we see tonight to be no different. Just 5 days ago the Caps beat Pittsburgh 5-2 and they fired 62 shots on goal between the clubs. The previous game to that one was a 7-1 Washington victory. These teams always create lots of offense and lots of PP opportunities as there were 9 and 11 respectively in the last two meetings. We see lots of goals again tonight between two clubs that just don't like each other.