Jack Jones
Knicks vs. Pacers
Play: Over 217½
I expect a shootout tonight between two of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. The Knicks give up 108.3 points per game overall and 110.6 points per game on the road. The Pacers allow 106.7 points per game overall on the season.
The Pacers have been especially poor defensively of late as they have allowed at least 100 points in 10 of their last 11 games overall. The Knicks have allowed at least 102 points in 14 of their last 16 games, including an average of 110.0 points in their last five contests.
These teams have met twice already this season, and shootouts were the end result. The Knicks beat the Pacers 118-111 at home for 229 combined points. The Pacers beat the Knicks 123-109 at home for 232 combined points. Expect a similar showing here as these teams combined for well over 217.5 points to get the OVER.
The OVER is 6-0 in Pacers last six vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The OVER is 15-7 in Knicks last 22 vs. Eastern Conference foes. The OVER is 6-1 in Pacers last seven home games. The OVER is 8-2 in Pacers last 10 games when playing on one days' rest.
Larry Wallace
Wizards vs. Hornets
Play: Wizards +4½
Take the Wizards and the points against the Hornets. Washington has won 7 out of their last 10. They are averaging 106.1 points per game and shooting 47.1% from the field. The Hornets allow 103 points a game. Hornets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games that were on Monday. Wizards are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 while playing with one day rest.
Jimmy Boyd
Thunder vs. Jazz
Play: Jazz -5
I like the value here with Utah laying a short number at home against OKC. Russell Westbrook is putting up ridiculous numbers and has the Thunder playing better than expected, but it also has them overvalued. OKC is getting way to much respect here against the Jazz. Utah is one of the elite teams in the Western Conference and come in having won 6 straight. The Jazz are very good at home (16-7) and have won 6 straight at home all by at least 7 points, which includes a 8-point win over the Cavs.
I just don't see the Thunder being able to snap that trend here. OKC has had 4-days off since that ugly loss to the Warriors, but this is still their 5th straight game on the road. The Thunder are a modest 10-13 on the road this season, but are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. OKC is also just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 as a road dog of 6 points or less.
Bruce Marshall
Cleveland at New Orleans
Play: New Orleans +6.5
Once again, Pels have to worry about another Anthony Davis injury (this time to his hand), though there were indications late last week that it was not serious. Davis was available for Jan. 2 game vs. Cavs at the "Q" when Uni-brow was held under his season average when scoring only 20, though NO was able to stay within 9-point spread that night. Cleveland still adjusting to recent addition of spot-shooter deluxe Kyle Korver, but has been a risky investment since Xmas, covering just 3 of 13. With Davis available, easier to make a case for Pels in home dog role in which they are 5-2 this term.
Ken Thomson
Oklahoma St. -3.5
Oklahoma State finally woke up from their Big 12 Conference nightmare where they dropped their first six Conference games. They pounded Texas Tech in Lubbock on Saturday to the tune of 83-64 behind hot shooting all the way around. The team shot better than 55% for the game and was ( 11-16 ) from behind the arc. Jeffrey Carroll was ( 4-5 ) from three and finished with 25 points to lead the Pokes. OSU comes home to face TCU and need a home win for the Stillwater faithful and to keep up the momentum from Saturday's road win. I like Okie State by 7-12 in this one!
Bruce Marshall
North Carolina St. +16.5
NCS has been prone to no-show efforts, such as its recent 51-point loss at Chapel Hill. But the Wolfpack kept itself in the Selection Sunday discussion with last Tuesday's win over Pitt. And its best efforts can definitely hang with non-Coach K Duke, which dropped first its three vs. the line with Jeff Capel as interim HC prior to Saturday's lineup adjustments and win vs. Miami. Moreover, the Blue Devils are having to concern themselves with steering combustible high scorer Grayson Allen clear of troublesome situations, lest his temper again get the best of him. With five DD scorers and tallying 81 ppg, the Wolfpack can definitely run with Duke, with 6-3 frosh G Dennis Smith, Jr. (19.1 ppg; laid 30 recently on Ga. Tech) making a case as the top ACC frosh.
Ben Burns
Washington -195
Given the current form of these teams, this line could easily be higher. The Caps are off back-to-back wins and are now 11-1 their last 12. The Canes have lost three straight. While Washington has scored 23 goals its past four games, Carolina has scored four goals its last three, allowing 14. While these teams have split a pair of meetings at Raleigh this season, the Caps were a perfect 4-0 as a host in the series, the past two seasons. The Caps are 16-5 against sub-500 teams on the season and should keep rolling for another day.
Brad Wilton
Monday's comp play is the Bobcats plus the points as they look to sweep the season series against the Gaels.
Quinnipiac just beat Iona on January 14th, 97-91 in overtime at home as the +6 point underdogs. They were able to follow that upset win with a win over Canisius their last time out. That puts the Bobcats on a 7 game against the spread cover streak as they head into New Rochelle to face an Iona team that hasn't been rewarding their backers at the ticket window at all.
Iona is just 4-5 straight up their last 9 games, and just 2-6-1 against the spread in their last 9 played.
For the season, the Bobcats are 7-1 against the spread away from home, so getting double-digits looks to be the way to go in this hoops showdown on Monday night.
Grab the Bobcats plus the points.
1* QUINNIPIAC
Eric Schroeder
My free play is on the Holy Cross Crusaders, at home against the American Eagles, on national television.
Holy Cross (10-10, 4-3) has won four of its last six games, and is coming off an 85-76 victory at Army on Wednesday. American (5-13, 2-5), meanwhile, has lost four of its last five, albeit the win was in its last game.
American won't be able to keep up with the Crusaders here, as they lead the Patriot League in scoring defense (63.7 points per game), steals (8.9 steals per game), assist-to-turnover ratio (1.34-to-1) and turnover margin (+5.0 turnovers per game).
Look for Holy Cross to suffocate the Eagles and win this by a dozen.
5* HOLY CROSS
Dave Price
Brooklyn Nets +11.5
The San Antonio Spurs will be in a tough spot mentally here. They will have a hard time getting up for the Nets after their huge 118-115 (OT) road victory at defending champion Cleveland on National TV Saturday. Don't expect them to be all in for this game now Monday. The Nets are playing well of late. They only lost by 10 to the Raptors in a game that was much closer than the final score, beat the Pelicans 143-114 on the road as 10-point dogs, and then only lost by 7 at Charlotte as 12-point dogs in their last three contests. The Spurs are dealing with injuries right now to several key players. While Kawhi Leonard is probable tonight with a hand injury, Manu Ginobli is questionable, and both Tony Parker and Pau Gasol are expected to miss this game. The Nets are 36-18 ATS in their last 54 home games off a game with 30 or more assists.
Sean Murphy
Cavs vs. Pelicans
Play: Over 216
The first meeting between these two teams this season came earlier this month and it was a low-scoring defensive affair with the Cavs winning by a 90-82 score. I expect a much different story to unfold in their rematch in New Orleans on Monday night.
The Cavs haven't played a great deal of defense since that earlier meeting, allowing at least 100 points in all nine games. They'll face a considerable test against a Pelicans squad that scores over 106 points per game at home this season.
The Pelicans were torched for 143 points against a weak Brooklyn squad last time out. Needless to say, they'll have motivation on their side in this one. Note that New Orleans has scored 118 and 114 points in its last two contests.
The last two matchups between these two teams in the Big Easy have produced 233 and 222 points, with the latter matchup needing overtime to get there.
SPORTS WAGERS
Anaheim +103 over WINNIPEG
OT included. After a four-game losing streak in which the Jets gave up 19 goals, Coach Paul Maurice summoned Andrej Pavelec from the minors to rescue his team. Since that call-up the Jets are 2-0 with victories over Arizona and St. Louis. They were outshot by the Blues 39-27 and while they outshot Arizona 39-33, they still gave up three goals and plenty more scoring chances. Winnipeg caught two reeling teams at the right time but that is not the case here with the Ducks. Winnipeg has been schizophrenic this season with some impressive wins but too many grating losses for us to ignore. They are a weak-minded team that can come apart quickly and one that the Ducks should be able to impose their will on. There’s a reason that the Jets are paying Andrej Pavelec 4 million a year to play in the minors and it’s not because he’s good. Pavelec now makes his third straight start.
The Ducks are coming off a 5-3 loss to the Wild in a game they only allowed 25 shots on net. Anaheim has now allowed 26 shots on net or less in six of its past 10 games. Since the calendar turned to 2017, the Ducks are 7-2-1 and have picked up 15 out of possible 20 points. Prior to that 5-3 loss to Minnesota, they had outscored the opposition 22-11 in nine games so the five goals surrendered to the Wild was a complete anomaly. Jonathan Bernier gets this call, which is perfect because we get a better number to work with. The Ducks are a consistently strong team that are well-structured and very difficult to beat while the Jets are an erratic group with poor goaltending and poor coaching that cannot be trusted whatsoever, especially after a couple of wins when it appears that they are moving forward. This is the two-steps back game.
Carolina +170 over WASHINGTON
OT included. The Capitals are the greatest show on paper right now with an 11-0-2 record over their past 13 games but the bubble is about to burst anytime now because the run is better than the performance. On Saturday, the Caps went into Dallas and recorded a mere 22 shots on net in a 4-3 OT win against a team that gives up shots by the bushel. Two nights prior, the Caps scored seven goals on 18 shots on net in St. Louis. That game sent Jake Allen to his bedroom for a time out. The game before that, the Caps scored seven times on 28 shots against Pittsburgh. The game before that, the Caps scored five goals on 22 shots against Philadelphia. Washington has been outshot and out-chanced in four straight games. Dallas outshot them 35-22, Pittsburgh outshot them, 37-28 and the Blue Notes outshot them, 25-18. The Caps have scored an absolutely incredible 23 goals on 90 shots on goal over their past four games. That’s almost as lucky as winning the lottery and it’s simply not sustainable.
Don't get us wrong, as we acknowledge that the Capitals are a force to be reckoned with but they’re not in great form. They’re not creating lately, they’ve been getting outplayed and we also have to question whether or not they even want this unbeaten in regulation streak to last. The Caps have taken heat for peaking at the wrong time over a number of strong regular seasons before bowing out quietly in the playoffs. Surely they’re not interested in a repeat. The Caps now return home from a three-game trip and head right back out after this one for another three-game trip that starts in Ottawa tomorrow. Aside from all that, the Hurricanes are too good to be taking back prices like this.
Carolina has dropped three straight so its stock is low again for the first time in weeks. In their last game against Columbus, a 3-2 loss, the ‘Canes outshot the Jackets 37-20. Carolina has an outstanding record against this rival. They have picked up three out of a possible four points this year against them. Carolina’s last three losses to Washington over the past two seasons have all been by one goal and this is the best Hurricanes’ team in years. The ‘Canes are in a bit of a funk but it’s not because they’re playing poorly. They continue to be a possession monster that is capable of defeating and badly outplaying any team in this league. Carolina’s weakness is still goaltending and if they lose here, that will likely be the reason but it’s not going to deter us from taking back this massive price on a very good team n a very good situational spot.
SPORTS WAGERS
MISS VALLEY ST. +13 over Texas Southern
Make no mistake about the Delta Devils of Mississippi Valley State, as they could easily be the poster boy for dregs if there was ever a team to embody the term. However, what we have here is a situation for us to snag some inflated points by virtue of a Texas Southern team that has been seen in bracketologists’s brackets for several weeks now. Though the Tigers sit just one game over .500 at 10-9, they are the current table-topper in the SWAC standings. That can be chalked up to TSU currently riding a six-game winning streak after starting off 4-9 and devouring menial SWAC outfits in the process.
Both Mississippi Valley State and Texas Southern sit in the top-five in non-conference strength of schedule. However, there are two huge differences worth noting. First, the Tigers are the 8th luckiest team in the country whilst the Delta Devils sit at 161st according to Ken Pom’s luck quotient. The theory is that games decided by four points or less are either lucky victories or unlucky losses because of missed free throws, bounces off the rim and referee calls. In other words, these types of games are a 50/50 shot so a team that wins a high majority of them is lucky while a team that loses a high majority is unlucky.
Very easily, the Tigers could be owners of a losing record and perhaps playing catch-up in the SWAC race had a few baskets or calls not gone their way. Additionally, their current sparkling six-game winning streak could have been nothing more than a few wins and a few losses, which again would likely not generate any reaction. Hypothetically, had the Tigers been not so fortunate, there may have been no manifestation of this offering as a whole or the price would certainly be a lot different.
Texas Southern stands at 8-9 on the road this season while MVSU has played just three home games and are 1-2 when hosting. However, both losses at home were by five points or less. Though the Delta Devils have an abysmal 2-17 record, they are 2-4 in conference play and could easily be 4-2. At the end of the day, we are not often advocates of playing road chalk and laying heavy lumber but that’s what this .500 team is asking of us here and it is almost certain it’s because of its current stature in its conference and tournament prognostication as a whole. The favorite here is 6-0 in the conference but its road victories have been by 2, 8, 5, and 7 points respectively and now they’re being asked to spot many more points than its largest road win. We must bite.
LV Traders
Rockets AT Bucks
Pick: Rockets
The Rockets look to put another wallop on a struggling Bucks team. The Rockets are expecting Ryan Anderson back into the starting 5 tonight, and a boost in minutes. Sam Dekker has been filling in nicely with Anderson getting back to 100%. He dropped 30 in his first start. They are coming off an impressive win in Memphis, and getting good play from the whole team. 45 points off the bench, 4th best in NBA right now. The Bucks are having a hard time scoring buckets (97ppg), and stopping them (111ppg) over the last week.
Harry Bondi
APPALACHIAN STATE +9 Georgia State
These two routinely play close games but the oddsmaker has overinflated this number after Georgia State won at coastal Carolina by 20 Saturday. Appy State has won 4 of the last 6 meetings with State and keep this one under the generous pointspread.