Free Picks for Monday, January 30th, 2017, from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Jesse Schule
Sacramento at Philadelphia
Play: Sacramento +1
The Kings have won three of their last four games, scoring an average of over 110 points per game during that span. They are Philly to play the Sixers tonight, and Philly has lost back to back games, giving up over 120 points in each of those losses. The Sixers appear to have cooled off after a 10-3 run prior to Friday's home loss to the Rockets. James Harden went off for 51 points, 13 rebounds and 13 assists in that game. I think we could see another halfhearted effort on defense tonight, and DeMarcus Cousins could pile on the points. Cousins scored 35 points in a win at Charlotte Saturday, and he's averaged over 30 points per game in his last five. The Kings have been having their way with opponents from the Eastern Conference, and they've covered the spread in five straight on this road trip. I expect Sacramento to handle the Sixers here in Philly.
Matt Fargo
Nets vs. Heat
Play: Nets +9
Miami has won seven straight games including a pair of impressive victories over Houston and Golden St. but there is no way the Heat should be trusted laying this big of a number. This is actually the biggest number that Miami has been favored by this season and while it comes against the worst team in basketball, it is overadjusted because of the recent winning streak. The Heat are now five games out of the final playoff spot but even with 34 games remaining, catching all five teams in front of them is unlikely. During this streak, the Heat did not pass a single team in the conference which shows how bad of a start it was. The Nets have lost five straight games and 16 of their last 17 games but to their credit, they have played a brutal schedule and overall, the Nets have played the toughest schedule of any team from the Eastern Conference. Brooklyn has played only 14 games against teams with losing records and it is 5-2 ATS this season on the road against losing reams and overall it is a respectable 10-11-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Brandon Shively
Georgia Southern vs. Troy State
Play: Troy State -180
On 12/21, Georgia State beat a Middle Tennessee State team that is now 19-3 this season. The Panthers were a healthy team at that point in time. They would then go through a stretch where their top 3 guards were out of the lineup. After Georgia State’s loss to Troy on 1/09, they got freshman D’Marcus Simonds back in the lineup along with Isaiah Williams who missed the Troy game. Simonds is a 4* recruit that has had 3 HUGE games in the past two weeks. Jeremy Hollowell is the teams leading scorer and is coming off two of his worst games of the season. Still Georgia State had enough offense to prevail. Holloway is 0-for-9 from the 3 point line the last 2 games. A couple of times this year he has went consecutive games without a 3 point basket. Holloway also has bounced back the following game with a 6-for-11 and a 4-for-5 outburst from the 3 point line. I expect the guards of Georgia State to be too much along with big man, Willie Clayton, who is there to pick up the leftovers around the basket and use his 5 fouls at will to be too much for South Alabama.
Georgia State is now on a 5 game win streak that has them averaging 52.7% from the floor, while holding opponents to 37.6% from the floor. Their opponent tonight, South Alabama, has been going in the opposite direction only shooting 41.% from the floor their last 5 games.
South Alabama is coming off a win against Georgia Southern. That win is important because South Alabama hasn’t won two games in a row since 11/16, a stretch of 16 games. They are 0-5 SU after win since 11/26.
Georgia State is 7-1 straight up over S. Alabama the last 8 meetings. The Jaguars are 0-4 straight up since joining the Sun Belt playing at home when coming off a home win where they shot over 50% from the floor.
This is a rare case where I am confident Georgia State prevails as the better team, and want to pay ‘insurance’ by taking them on the Money Line.
Art Aronson
Nets vs. Heat
Play: Nets +9
Miami is suddenly the hottest team in the league right now with seven straight wins. The Heat most recently took care of Detroit 116-113 and just last week beat Brooklyn 109-106 as 2.5 point favorites. Miami’s turnaround in play coincides with it getting healthier. Ultimately though we feel this sets up as a letdown spot/trap game for the surging Heat, who we think can’t help in taking their foot off the gas a bit tonight in facing the lowly Nets for a second time in the last week. And with upcoming home games against playoff hopeful Atlanta and Philadelphia, it’s not too hard to imagine the home side “looking ahead” as well. And here comes Brooklyn looking to take advantage and perhaps score a rare win on the road. Probably not, but we definitely feel this is a few too many points to be giving up, as note that the Nets are in fact already 9-4 ATS this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent. Also note that Miami is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a home fav in the nine to 12 points range. Consider grabbing the points.
Matt Josephs
Western Carolina vs. Mercer
Play: Mercer -13½
Western Carolina has lost seven of their last nine games entering this one at Mercer. They are coming off a six point home win over Wofford so there might be some confidence there. The problem is that they've been terrible on the road losing by 48 at Furman, by 23 at East Tennessee State and by 19 at UNC Greensboro. They fell 70-50 at home to Mercer just nine days ago in a contest where they shot 31.4% from the field and allowed the Bears to be at 50%. Mercer has won two straight and three of their last five games. They are getting into a groove offensively and have beaten up bad teams at home. Mercer held the Citadel to 66 points on Saturday which is quite the feat. They've covered all five games as a favorite. I think they win easily on Monday.
Power Sports
Memphis vs. Phoenix
Pick: Phoenix
The Suns lost a game Saturday night that was set up relatively well for them. They were favored against Denver in the second half of a home and home. The Nuggets were w/o arguably their best player, Nikola Jokic, and led only once in the first half. Regardless of the final result (123-112 Denver), I'm going to recommend a small play on Phoenix (PLUS the points) here. After all, they will be seeking to go a perfect 6-0 ATS this year when off a SU loss as a favorite.
This will be Memphis' third road game in four nights. They are off a big win in Utah, as seven-point dogs, Saturday. This team has been outscored on the road this season and is 0-7 ATS its L7 away games when the total falls into the 205 to 209.5 point range. Laying points on the road, it's going to require a strong offensive effort here from the Grizz to cover. But considering Phoenix averages over 106 PPG, it's an effort I don't think the visitors have in them.
Something I do not think we'll see here is 42 free throw attempts by the Grizzlies. That's how many times Denver went to the charity stripe Saturday and they took advantage by making 37. It was basically the difference in the game. (Also cost me an Under bet!). This is a rare TNT appearance for the Suns as well and I think the players will want to make the most of the national TV exposure. Memphis has gone nine straight games w/o posting back to back wins.
Will Rogers
Brooklyn vs. Miami
Pick: Miami
The set-up: The 9-38 Brooklyn Nets are in Miami Monday night to face the 18-30 Heat. The Nets are losers of five straight and 16 of their last 17, while the Heat currently own the NBA's longest active winning streak at seven in a row (also 7-0 ATS!).
Brooklyn: The Nets are officially the NBA's worst team, allowing a league-worst 115.2 PPG and head to Miami just 2-21 SU on the road, where the team allows 118.1 PPG. The Nets have allowed 23 consecutive opponents to score more than 100 points and in their most recent loss (129-109 at Minnesota on Saturday), allowed the Timberwolves to shoot 51.1 percent from the floor. "I felt they dominated us," Nets head coach Kenny Atkinson told reporters. "We couldn’t stop them. Physically, I thought they overwhelmed us. ... I just don’t think our defense was acceptable. I didn’t think we contested shots. Our physicality was below average."
Miami: The Heat were looking every bit a lottery team at 11-30 but have now gone on a seven-game winning streak, including victories over Houston, Golden State and Chicago. "Everybody is gunning to end the streak," Heat guard Dion Waiters told reporters after a 116-103 triumph over Detroit on Saturday. "We take it one game at a time. We don’t really look ahead and we just try to get better every day. Continue to keep working and get better as a team. When we go out there, we are not looking to keep a streak going. We are just looking to win the basketball game." The closest the Heat came to falling during the streak might have been at Brooklyn, where they escaped with a 109-106 win last Wednesday.
The pick: That "close call" at Barclays Center ought to keep Miami well-focused here and the team's recent surge has drwan speculation that Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra could be a candidate for Coach of the Year if he keeps this up. That seems like a reach but I have no reason to buck Miami at the moment, especially by siding with the pathetic Nets. Lay the points.
Jim Feist
Oklahoma St at Oklahoma
Pick: Under
Rivalry games mean intense defense and the Sooners are 5-2 under the total on the road. A young Oklahoma team is struggling on offense, getting 52 points the last game in a loss to Florida. The Under is 13-5 in the Sooners last 18 games following a spread loss. And when these rivals clash the under is 4-0.
LV Traders
Georgia Southern at Troy
Pick: Georgia Southern
The Eagles have a dynamic duo of all-conference caliber sophomores. Point-guard Tookie Brown and forward Ike Smith can both score in bunches and are the two biggest reasons GA Southern currently sits atop the Sun Belt. The Eagles are have been in Southern Alabama all weekend long and should recover well from a disappointing performance Saturday at USA. The Eagles won by 4 when these two squared off 23 days ago. Take the points in this spot and bet Georgia Southern.
Rocketman
Georgia Southern +4.5
The Georgia Southern Eagles travel to Troy to take on the Trojans on Monday night. Georgia Southern is 14-7 SU overall this year while Troy comes in with an 11-11 SU overall record on the season. Troy is 26-46 ATS last 72 games and 2-13 ATS last 3 years as a favorite. Troy is 0-7 SU and ATS last 3 years as a home favorite of 3 1/2 to 6 points. Troy is 7-22 ATS at home the past 3 years. Troy is 5-15 ATS last 3 years when revenging a road loss vs an opponent. Georgia Southern is scoring 79.3 points per game overall this year, 78.4 points per game their past 5 games overall and 81.2 points per game against conference opponents where they are 7-1 SU this season. Troy is allowing 76.7 points per game against conference opponents this season. We'll recommend a small play on Georgia Southern tonight!
Brandon Lee
Cavaliers at Mavericks
Play: Mavericks +4.5
Dallas is worth a look here as a short home favorite against the Cavaliers tonight. Cleveland has won two straight since their 2-6 stretch that everyone was freaking out about, but I still don't think this team is playing at the elite level to be laying this many points on the road in the 2nd game of a back-to-back on the road with one of their star players (Love) not suiting up. Dallas just won at San Antonio and are playing some of their best basketball of the season and are now 7-2 ATS in their last 9. Mavs are going to show up here against the defending champs at home, plus they have some big time revenge after losing by 38 at Cleveland earlier this season.
Jimmy Boyd
76ers +1
I successfully went against Philadelphia in yesterday's 108-121 loss at Chicago, but I'm going to jump right back on the 76ers bandwagon here at home against the Kings. While Philadelphia has lost their last two, one came at home against an elite Rockets team that they played right down to the wire. The other was against the Bulls, where Embiid sat out the front game of a back-to-back. Embiid is listed as questionable for this one, but I believe he's going to play.
Even if Embiid sits, I still like the 76ers here. Sacramento has been playing some decent basketball of late and are coming in off a win at Charlotte as a 7-point dog on Saturday. However, this is tough spot for the Kings. Not only is the 7th game of their 8-game road trip, they are playing for the 3rd time in four nights and have a much bigger game on deck at Houston tomorrow. This has the makings of a game where the Kings struggle to show up and keep it competitive.
Wunderdog
Detroit @ Boston
Pick: Detroit +6
The teams have split the first two meetings with Detroit winning 121-114 on Nov. 30 and the Celtics winning 94-92 on Nov. 19. Boston is playing its third game in four nights after an overtime win at Milwaukee on Saturday. Isaiah Thomas exploded for 37 points and Jae Crowder added 20 points for the Celtics, who shot only 41.6 percent in the win. Boston shot 40 three-pointers and made only 14 of them. The Pistons are playing just their second game since last Monday and they're looking to bounce back from a 116-103 loss at Miami on Saturday when the Heat made 14-of-28 from long range compared to 4-of-12 for Detroit. The road team has covered the spread four of the last five meetings and Detroit has the scheduling advantage.
David Banks
Oklahoma St @ Oklahoma
Pick: Oklahoma +1.5
Two Big 12 teams used to competing for conference titles are far from doing so this year. In-state rivals Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will clash on Monday night in a battle to keep one team out of the conference’s cellar. The Sooners have won just two games in their last 10 and are just 8-10 overall. One of the wins was an 89-87 upset of previously seventh-ranked West Virginia. The Cowboys, 11-8 overall, are just 1-6 in the conference, its lone win over Texas Tech. The win over the Red Raiders ended six-game losing streak for Oklahoma State.
In the first year after All-American guard Buddy Heild, the Sooners have had their share of troubles. They are now led by 6-0 senior guard Jordan Woodard who average 17.9 points and 3.9 assists per game. While the Sooners were one of the highest scoring teams in the country a year ago, they average just under 77 points per game this season. Rashard Odomes (10.6 ppg) is the only other Sooner who averages in double figures.
The Cowboys will counter with their three-guard lineup of leading scorer Jawun Evans, Jeffrey Carroll, and Phil Forte III. Evans averages 17.7 per game, Carroll 17.6, and Forte 14.1. Head coach Brad Underwood, known for taking mid-major Stephen F. Austin deep into the NCAA tournament, likes to play fast and Oklahoma State is eighth in the nation in scoring (87.8 ppg). The Cowboys bench is deep too; Underwood plays 11 players at least 10 minutes per game.