Bryan Leonard
Arkansas State at UL Lafayette
Play: UL Lafayette -3.5
Red Wolves sit at 6-2 in conference play and have already beaten the Ragin Cajuns by three at home. We have ULL rated slightly higher and find many times that teams in this comparative range split out in the season series. At 4-4 Lafayette needs this game badly if it is to remain in contention. At 9-2 SU in this building this season we have the Cajuns winning this one by 7 points. Plenty of value on a line that is plenty short for a revenge play.
Cal Sports
Duke at Notre Dame
Play: Duke -1.5
It is hard to imagine that the Duke Blue Devils were the AP Pre-season #1 team and Notre Dame received 6 points in the opening AP Poll which would have ranked them #44. The Irish have played better than expected and were ranked #14 last week but come into this game ranked #20. The Blue Devils meanwhile are 4-4 in ACC action and find themselves at #21. Notre Dame has won and covered three straight in this series and pulled the upset in each including knocking Duke out of the ACC Conference Tournament each of the last two seasons.
Duke started the year going 12-1 with the only blemish a November loss to Kansas. Grayson Allen was suspended for their ACC opener, a loss to Virginia Tech, and then “indefinite suspension” ended after one game but Coach K then took a leave of absence for back surgery. The Devils beat Georgia Tech and Boston College but both were at home and have gone 2-3 SU since with losses at Florida St, at Louisville and home versus NC State. After the Wolfpack loss Coach K banned his team from the locker room and wouldn’t let then wear Duke gear as he met with them last week prior to a 2-point win at Wake Forest. Luke Kennard leads the way averaging 20.4 PPG while Jayson Tatum is #2 with 15.8 PPG. Allen is #3 (15.3 PPG) with three others scoring between 8.3-12.2 PPG. Amile Jefferson leads with 9.5 rebounds/game but four others average 5 or more rebounds and six players in all average 1.8 or more assists/game.
Notre Dame opened up this season going 9-0 before loses to Villanova and Purdue and then won 7 straight including upsets at Miami and Virginia Tech. The Irish, however, have now dropped three of their last 4 including getting upset as a small home dog to Virginia and at Georgia Tech on Saturday. Balance can describe this year’s team are four players average between 14.0 and 15.5 PPG as Bonzie Colson (15.5 PPG) also leads the team in rebounding (10.6 reb/game) while PG Matt Farrell (14.0 PPG & 5.6 assists/game) is the teams leader.
Duke has my #12 offense and #37 defense compared to Notre Dame which is my #6 offense but only my #66 defense. There is value on Duke playing as they are playing with triple revenge as they still have the talent to be one of the best teams in the country. While I would still not feel comfortable backing them in a large favorite’s role I do feel comfortable calling for a win in this spot.
Buster Sports
Texas Arlington at Coastal Carolina
Play: Coastal Carolina +6
Coastal Carolina has lost 3 games in a row but we believe tonight is a good situation for the Chanticleers to bounce back with maybe even an OR victory. At the time of this writing we are getting 6 points and we love that UT Arlington are playing their second road game after a win on Saturday at bottom feeder Appalachian St. 83-67. UT Arlington have lost 2 games on the Sun Belt road this year which sets us up nicely in this matchup. Coastal Carolina comes into this game with revenge for a 90-69 beatdown at UT Arlington on January 1st. A closer look at the game and you see that the Chanticleers turned the ball over 18 times in what was a 35-35 halftime tie, turned into a ugly second half for Coastal Carolina. We see the home club taking care of the ball tonight and playing a competitive game for the whole 40 minutes.
Brad Wilton
Monday comp play is the Cowboys over the Sooners in the harwood edition of "Bedlam".
Oklahoma State has lost the last 7 series meetings between the teams, and if ever there was a time for the Cowboys to stop the bleeding, it would be tonight in Norman.
Oklahoma is fresh off a 32-point home loss to Florida, the Sooners have now lost 3 in a row, and 10 of their last 12 games overall!
Oklahoma State comes into this one with wins and covers in each of their last 3, and they have gone 6-3-1 against the spread away from Stillwater this year.
If the 'Pokes can't get the job done tonight against Boomer Sooner, they may never get the job done against them!
Take Okie State.
2* OKLAHOMA STATE
Chris Jordan
My free play for Monday takes us to South Beach, as I'm playing the Miami Heat over the Brooklyn Nets.
Anyone else think this phrase would have been uttered, just two weeks ago: "the Miami Heat are owners of the longest active win streak in the NBA."
Not Cleveland, not Golden State, not San Antonio - the Miami Heat (18-30).
Sitting on seven games, the Heat shoud make it eight in a row with a rather easy win over the Nets (9-38), who have lost five games in a row and play the worst defense in the NBA, allowing 114.9 points per game.
The Nets have let 23 consecutive opponents to score more than 100 points, including a 129-109 setback to the Minnesota Timberwolves in their last outing. Brooklyn is without point guard Jeremy Lin, who is expected to miss another month with a strained left hamstring. Nets shooting guard Joe Harris is also questionable for tonight, while swing man Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is questionable because of an injury to his right ankle.
The Heat are in a great spot to win this big and build even more momentum.
4* HEAT
Eric Schroeder
My free play for tonight is on the Cleveland Cavaliers, as the defending champs need to snap out of this lull, and respond to LeBron James' uneasiness.
Last week, James questioned the front office's dedication to winning, while the team has been a bit ho-hum despite the fatigue and short-handedness the team is experiencing.
While James has been cranky lately, leading the league in minutes with a squad that needs some help, yesterday might have helped things mentally with a 107-91 victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder. The win ended a three-game skid, and appeared to be a sign of hope at the defensive end.
Now the Cavaliers (32-14) are in Dallas to cap back-to-back sessions, with a showdown against the Dallas Mavericks (17-30), who played at San Antonio last night. I know there was question whether or not Cleveland coach Tyronn Lue would rest James and Kyrie Irving, but according to several sources - and confirmation by the Associated Press - they're both in Dallas, and both will be on the court.
As they should be since Dallas returned home last night after shocking the Spurs, 105-101. But I have to wonder if the Mavericks can turn around and give the same effort two nights in a row.
I mean, they are still playing without injured point guard Deron Williams and J.J. Barea, and you can't count on guys who don't normally have breakout games, to do it two nights in a row. Especially against the defending champs.
Take Cleveland tonight, as it pulls away for an eight-point win.
2* CAVALIERS
John Martin
Cleveland at Dallas
Play: Cleveland -4
The Cleveland Cavaliers are refocused after a recent stretch in which they lost 3 straight games for the first time all season. Lebron James voiced his frustrations, and the team seems to have responded, especially with Sunday's 107-91 win over Oklahoma City. Dallas also played yesterday in a huge 105-101 upset at San Antonio as 11.5-point dogs. Asking the Mavs to win back-to-back games against two of the best teams in the NBA is a very tall task. I think they fall short today as the Cavs roll in this one.
Dave Price
Magic vs. Wolves
Play: Magic +9½
The Minnesota Timberwolves are starting to get too much love from the books. They have won 7 of their last 10 games coming in, but now they're being asked to win by nearly double-digits here tonight against the Orlando Magic. The Magic have lost 6 of their last 8, so they aren't getting nearly the love. But they did win 114-113 in Toronto yesterday as 11-point dogs and have played their best basketball on the road all season, going 11-15 SU and 14-12 ATS. Orlando is 26-12 ATS in non-conference road games over the last 3 seasons. Minnesota is 0-8 ATS off a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last four games playing on 0 days rest. The Magic are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 trips to Minnesota.
Jack Jones
Sacramento Kings -1½
The Philadelphia 76ers look to be out of gas right now. They have played a grueling schedule here of late and will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days tonight. It will also be their 7th game in a row played on a different court as they haven't had back-to-back home games during this stretch.
The 76ers certainly showed signs of running out of steam last night in a 108-121 road loss to the Chicago Bulls. Now they have to play a Sacramento Kings team that is playing well coming in, winning three of their last four games overall despite all four contests coming on the road.
The Kings went into Detroit and won 109-104 as 7-point dogs, upset Cleveland 116-112 in overtime as 11-point dogs, and topped Charlotte 109-106 as 7-point dogs. The only loss during this stretch came in overtime at Indiana 111-115 as 4-point dogs. This has been one of the most impressive stretches of the season for the Kings.
Philadelphia is 1-10 ATS after a combined score of 205 points or more in three straight games over the last two seasons. The Kings are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games. The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
Black Widow
Pistons vs. Celtics
Play: Pistons +5½
Bets on road underdogs after allowing 105 points or more in 3 straight games against an opponent that's off a win by 6 points or less are 34-4 ATS over the last 5 seasons. This situation's record is 10-1 this season alone. The Pistons will be playing only their 2nd game in 7 days here and will be primed for a great effort tonight in Boston.
3G-Sports
Knicks vs. Wizards
Play: Over 220.5
I trust Washington and their defense scheme as they have allowed only 105/game. Washington knows how to make backcourts of teams concerned. John Wall can dazzle people with his ball handling and dimes. And Bradley Beal makes plays, end of story, his stick up jumper makes other G's shake their heads, and pause. Their guards can do everything. And they will again here. New York needs to start playing better D, and really need to start keeping their bigs involved, the Knicks have a decent amount of talent in the paint, but they tend to shy away from that game, as their 20th ranked shooting shows. New York Kristaps Porzingis is the right guy to find - but he seems to get distant at times, when he shouldn't. New York been playing bad recently with their defense giving up even more than usual. KP fouled out of his last game with that 4OT game on Sunday so expect him to put up some points here.
SPORTS WAGERS
Siena -1½ over QUINNIPIAC
Make no mistake that this is a battle of cupcakes but it bodes importance for both constituents who are currently running in the middle of the pack in the MAAC race. Both teams enter with losing records with the Saints of Siena at 9-13 and the Bobcats of Quinnipiac at 8-13. However, in the MAAC standings, both these teams are separated by just a game overall. Siena is 6-5 in the MAAC while Quinnipiac is 5-6 so the popular ideology here is that Quinnipiac will have to win this game and because it is a home, it is expected to do so. The old adage in college basketball for road teams in weaker conferences is that they have to be 10 points better than the host to emerge victorious but we’re not buying that adage here.
There are several reasons to suggest the Saint Bernard’s are being sold short here. While the Bobcats have compiled their 8-13 mark against the 246th ranked non-conference strength of schedule (SOS), Siena has played the 43rd toughest docket in out-of-conference play. That’s a massive difference that matters. Therefore, any high rankings in terms of pace, points scored, etc., are all skewed numbers when it comes to the host and skewed the wrong way against the visitor. In other words not all 8-13 or 9-13 teams are equal. The bottom line is that Siena has seen and played bigger and badder. The Saints have traveled out to Kansas, George Washington, St. Bonaventure, Florida Gulf Coast and UNC-Asheville. The Saints hosted Vermont and Bucknell and even managed to pull off the upset against the Bison. Kansas needs no introduction and for that matter neither do the Colonials of George Washington or the Bonnies. Currently, Florida Gulf Coast sits atop their standings in its respective conference, as do Bucknell, Vermont and UNC-Asheville. All four of those teams have a legit shot of making the Big Dance. Against quality opposition all season long, the Saints have not looked a bit out of place with a 21-point loss to Kansas, a two-point loss to GW, a 12-point loss at UNC Ashville, a 7-point loss at the Bonnies and a four-point loss at Florida Gulf Coast.
The visitor here is quite accustomed to going on the road and competing. 13 of its 22 games have been on the road. Siena is coming off a disturbing 77-66 home loss against Iona, which has its stock lower than it should be. That loss to Iona works in our favor big time because it has created a very beatable number here. On Saturday, one day after that aforementioned loss, the Saints sat through a three-hour film session. That was their reward for their uninspired effort.
Saints head coach Jimmy Patsos said he followed the advice on handling defeats from his former University of Maryland colleague Billy Hahn, who's now an assistant at West Virginia. "The tape doesn't lie,'' Patsos said Sunday. "We're going to rewind it, and we're going to rewind it, and we're going to rewind it, and we're going to rewind it. Billy Hahn taught me, you have to show them, and show them, and show them."
Siena will come into this one well-prepped and with a ton of energy. They have learned how to rebound after a loss, as they do not have consecutive losses over their past seven games. We now get the superior team that is so much more experienced (Siena has four 1000-point scorers in its starting lineup) and battle tested and we’re absolutely going to bite.
MERCER -13 over W. Carolina
Western Carolina is getting far too much credit here only because the Bears of Mercer are not getting enough. The Catamounts are 7-15 overall, which is not much worse than Mercer’s 10-12 record but there is a big discrepancy in talent here that is not revealed in the overall records of these two. That provides us with this outstanding play on a underpriced home favorite.
Western Carolina played the 20th ranked out-of-conference strength of schedule in the country. That gives them some market credibility but what good is it to play superior opponents when you get destroyed every time out. To the opposition, scheduling games against the Catamounts is nothing more than a glorified practice. WCU lost 92-43 to Miami, 66-38 to Ohio State, 98-63 to Marshall, 90-44 to Marquette and 90-37 to West Virginia. Western Carolina is like the Washington Generals playing the Harlem Globetrotters thus, its out-of-conference schedule means jack when they get steamrolled every time they play quality opposition.
Mercer’s out-of-conference strength of schedule ranked 48th in the country but the difference is that outside of a bad loss to Clemson, the Bears competed. Furthermore, Mercer’s 10-12 record is one of the more misleading records in the country. The Bears have played nine games that have been decided by four points or fewer and they’re 3-6 in those games. What’s more remarkable is that all six of those losses have been by two points, and three have come in Southern Conference play. Again, that’s six losses by two points so we could very easily be talking about a 16-6 team as opposed to a 10-12 team. Mercer has led in every single league game thus far and has also had the lead in numerous out of conference games too.
Nine days ago, Mercer went into Western Carolina and won by 20 so the only danger here is that the Bears show up in body only but that’s not who they are. Mercer’s head coach Bob Hoffman said. “The thing I really admire about this team is how no matter what’s transpired, they show up every game and play their tails off. That endorsement by their head coach helps us to seal the seal the deal in our endorsement of the Bears in this game. Western Carolina is used to getting whacked on the road and nothing suggests the same won’t happen here.
OKLAHOMA +120 over Oklahoma St
One of the biggest mistakes bettors make is not sticking with a team they liked after ripping up a ticket on them the game before but this one goes even deeper and sets up beautifully for the underdog. There are so many great angles at work here and we’ll start with the buy-low, sell high angle. The Sooners are coming off a completely uninspiring and lame effort against #25 Florida on Saturday in a game the Sooners would get steamrolled in by 32 points. That was a marquee matchup that was seen nationally and those that watched it are not anxious to be backing an OU team that looked that bad two days later. The Sooners have dropped three in a row and 10 of their last 12 games.
By contrast, OSU has won three straight capped off by Saturday’s 99-71 resounding victory over Arkansas. The Cowboys have won three straight all by 13 points or more. What we have here is one team coming off a blowout loss playing another team coming off a blowout win. Buy low, sell high.
Let’s now put aside the recent results and focus more on value and what the odds makers think because both are more relevant than a handful of results. On Saturday, the Gators opened as a 1½-point favorite in Oklahoma. Two days later, the Cowboys cannot be priced in the same range as Florida but the results of Saturday’s games have greatly influenced this number. Two games earlier, Oklahoma was a 2-point home favorite over Iowa State so the odds makers have great respect for the Sooners talent and potential. Oklahoma’s blowout loss to the Gators on Saturday was the result of a young team getting a little too jacked up in a marquee game. It happens all the time but we’re not going to put much weight on it whatsoever, especially with “Bedlam” on deck. Of course, OSU had Bedlam on deck too but they had a much weaker opponent on Saturday than the Sooners did.
ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index (BPI) ranks the Sooners’ strength of schedule as the second toughest in the nation behind only Wake Forest. Four of Oklahoma’s last nine games have been against teams ranked in the AP Top 25 Poll at the time of competition (#2 Kansas, #2 Baylor, #7 West Virginia, #25 Florida).Lon Kruger’s team just got embarrassed. Oklahoma is now in line to play its best game of the season or damn close to it. While we absolutely respect the Cowboys, they are wrongly favored based on very recent results instead of the entire picture. OU has lost three straight but they were very good in two of those losses and they figure to be very good here too. Regardless of outcome, there is such great value on the home dog here so it must be played.
Bruce Marshall
Mercer -12.5
Western Carolina has been sitting at or near the bottom of the SoCon for a reason, and the Catamounts can definitely not be trusted to put two good games together after their upset win over Wofford on Saturday. After all, WCU remains one of the country's worst shooting teams at 37.2% from the floor and 29.9% beyond the arc, and has lost decisively after all six of its previous SU wins this season. Much prefer steady Mercer, which remains athreat in the SoCon, has covered all five previous games as chalk this season, and has covered its last five and 7 of its last 8 games on the board. Three of the Bears' last four wins are also by 16 points or more, with Wichita State transfer G Ria'n Holland (17.5 ppg) really soaring in recent games, hitting 8 of 16 triples his past two outings.
Andy Iskoe
Miami -8
Let's ride the hot team as Miami has won 7 in a row, covering all 7. An indication of their fine current form is that they've won 5 of the 7 outright as underdogs. Included in this stretch is a 109-106 win at Brooklyn just last Wednesday, barely covering as 2.5 point favorites. That game is notable for the Nets having blown an 18 point lead entering the fourth quarter -- Miami outscored the Nets 38-17 in that final quarter. Following that win Miami has won its next two games by double digits -- winning at Chicago by 12 last Friday and then defeating Detroit at home the very next night by 13. Brooklyn has lost 5 in a row, 16 of 17 and 21 of 23, going a woeful 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games. Brooklyn's performance over the first 3 quarters of last week's meeting should have the Heat's attention entering this game and with Miami playing their best ball of the season they are worth backing against a team that has won just 9 games all season and, despite usually getting a boat load of points, still has a losing ATS record for the season (21-25-1). Although Miami is likely to miss the Playoffs their current run has them at 18-30 SU but a profitable 26-22 ATS.
Stallone Sports
Notre Dame Pk
the Irish have had Duke’s number in recent meetings, which includes 2 wins last year and 4 of the last 5 in this match-up. Duke is coming off a road win @ Wake on Saturday in a game where they were outplayed but were bailed out by Luke Kennard who was on fire in the second half. I still see flaws in this Blue Devils squad, they are not meshing well as a team right now and they will have to play a near perfect game to get the win tonight @ Notre Dame. The Irish are coming off back to back losses, including a loss at the buzzer @ Georgia Tech on Saturday. This looks like a prime bounce back spot for an experienced Irish team who has been dominant at home this season going 5-2 ATS. Duke comes into this matchup losers of 3 of their 4 ACC road games, getting beat handily @ Louisville, Florida State & Virginia Tech. Yes Duke appears to be healthy now, but there is a major continuity issue with this team right now and I’m just not convinced that they can win this game on the road tonight. The Irish are in a home run spot here and I think they should be laying -2.5, -3, so I will gladly take the pk/-1. Mike Brey has had a formula for dissecting the Blue Devils defense in recent meetings and should be able to do it again tonight.