Free Picks for Monday, June 12th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
RANGERS VS. ASTROS
PLAY: RANGERS +115
Hey, the Astros are human after all. They’re actually a little off their game right now, as they didn’t play particularly well at Kansas City and lost a home series to the Angels.
Texas righty Yu Darvish has not been as dominant as perhaps expected, but he looks like he’s getting close and might be ready to get on a run. I thought Darvish looked really good in his most recent start, and I’m going to bank on that as a buy sign.
Darvish will be opposed by Joe Musgrove, who is fresh off a DL stint. He had his best game of the season to date just prior to going down. But I’m always a little leery of guys with even minor shoulder issues, and I would think his pitch count will be monitored here. Note that Musgrove generally doesn’t go that deep anyway, with the 102 pitches just prior to the DL stint his highest of the season.
Sweep revenge for Texas here as they got cleaned at home by the Astros in the last set between these two. I’ll be on the Texas side in this game.
Stephen Nover
Braves vs. Nationals
Play: Under 8
Matt Adams was a shrewd pickup for the Braves after they lost Freddie Freeman to injury. But, sooner or later, the Braves' bats were going to go cold minus Freeman. That cold streak is upon the Braves now. Atlanta has scored just nine runs in its last four games, including only one run during each of its past three games. Don't look for the Braves to break out of their offensive funk against Stephen Strasburg today. Strasburg just may be the third-best pitcher in the National League behind only Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer. Strasburg has the fifth-lowest ERA and WHIP in the NL and is in the top eight in strikeouts with 89 in 80 1/3 innings. Strasburg has dominated the Braves during the past three seasons going 6-1 with a 2.68 ERA in his last eight starts against them. Freeman and Adonis Garcia are the only Braveswho have had previous success versus Strasburg. Both are on the DL. The key to making this under work, though, is Atlanta starter Mike Foltynewicz. I've always liked his potential and now the consistency is beginning to show with better control. Foltynewicz is in his best form of the season throwing 14 scoreless innings during his last two starts with 14 strikeouts. The Nationals have scored the third-most runs in the majors, but are going through offensive woes. If you discount a six-run game against the Orioles and their overmatched starter, Alec Asher, the Nationals have scored just nine runs in their last five games, an average of less than two per game. Ryan Zimmeran leads Washington in hitting, homers and RBIs. He has missed the last two games, however, with a back injury. Obviously it's a huge plus for the under if Zimmerman remains out.
Marc Lawrence
Cincinnati at San Diego
Play: San Diego -114
Edges - Padres: Perdomo host 7-3 in Perdomo starts this season… Reds: Arroyo 7.50 ERA and 1.71 WHIP away this season… With the Padres 12-5 the last 17 games in this series, we recommend a 1* play on San Diego.
Jesse Schule
Phillies vs. Red Sox
Play: Over 10½
The Red Sox host the Phillies in Game 1 of a four game home and home series on Monday, and I expect to see another slugfest at Fenway. Boston took two of three games in a home series versus Detroit over the weekend, and the two teams combined to score 33 runs.
Jerad Eickhoff will toe the slab for the Phillies, and he's still looking for his first victory of 2017. Eickhoff (0-7, 5.15 ERA) allowed four runs on four hits over five innings in a 14-1 loss at Atlanta his last time out. This will be his second career start at Fenway, and he was torched for six runs on eight hits in just four innings, losing his first start in Boston.
The Red Sox hand the ball to Rick Porcello, who hasn't missed many bats in 2017. The reigning AL Cy Young winner hasn't looked anything like the pitcher than won 22 games in 2016. Porcello (3-8, 4.46 ERA) was torched for six runs on eight hits and two walks over six innings in an 8-0 loss to the Yankees his last time out. He's surrendered a whopping 22 hits over 13 innings in his last two home starts.
The Phillies have gone over in 10 of their last 14 games at Fenway, and the over is 22-8-1 in their last 31 inter-league games.
Art Aronson
Braves vs. Nationals
Play: Under 8½
A couple of competent starters go head-to-head on Monday night and in our opinion, all signs point to a lower-scoring pitchers duel:
Mike Foltynewicz: He’s 4-5 with a 3.48 ERA. Foltynewicz comes in on top form, most recently holding the Phillies scoreless over seven innings, giving up just four hits and two walks while striking out four. That’s now back-to-back seven frame shutout performances for the crafty right-hander. Foltynewicz has been far from perfect this season, but he’s performing better now than at any other time and note that he does own a very respectable 3.03 ERA on the road this year.
Stephen Strasburg: He’s 7-2 with a 2.80 ERA. Strasburg most recently gave up two runs (one earned) off three hits and one walk to go along with eight K’s over six innings in an unfortunate loss against the Dodgers on Wednesday. Clayton Kershaw earned the win for LA. Strasburg had won four straight outings previous to that and note that it was the seventh time this year that he’s struck out at least eight batters.
The bottom line: Strasburg has been tough at home as well, going 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA. Note that ATL has seen the total go UNDER the number in both games this season as a road dog in the +175 to +250 range, while Washington has seen the total go UNDER the number in six of seven this season as a home fav in the -175 to -250 range. Consider a second look at the UNDER in this one.
Mike Anthony
Cavaliers vs. Warriors
Play: Cavaliers +9
I like the Cavs plus the pts with their backs against the wall once again. The Cavaliers either win Monday or they get blown out. I think their dominating performance in Game 4 with Tristan Thompson finally being active was huge. The Cavs are going to be physical right from the start and that will be the difference ATS. I'm on the Cavs to grab us the cash as your Monday comp.
Rob Vinciletti
Chicago vs. New York
Play: New York -127
The Mets have won the last 3 and look ready to roll now that Cespedes, Matz and Lugo are back. The Mets are 23-4 as a home favorite off a 1 run win where they scored 4 or less runs and 4-0 if the win was on the road. They are averaging over 5 runs vs right handers and are 5-1 on Mondays. Chicago has lost 8 straight road games and 6 of the last 9 here in NY. They have Lackey and his 5+ road Era on the mound. Lackey has lost 6 of 8 as a road dog. The Mets counter with DeGromination as Jacob looks to bounce back from a pair of rough outings. He has allowed 3 runs in 12 innings over his last 2 starts vs the Cubs. The Mets fit a solid system that plays on home favorites off a road dog win that scored 2 or less runs vs an opponent off a home favored win that had 10+ hits. These home teams win over 90% long term.
Jim Feist
Baltimore at Chicago
Pick: Under
Both teams are struggling on offense, and this is a good park for pitchers. The Under is 24-11-2 in the Orioles last 37 Monday games. Chicago is 18-8-2 under the total against a team with a winning record. The Under is 7-2-1 in White Sox's last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter and this shapes up as a defensive duel.
Rocketman
Chicago vs. New York
Play: New York -118
The Chicago Cubs travel to New York to take on the Mets on Monday night. Chicago Cubs are 31-31 SU overall this year while the NY Mets come in with a 28-33 SU overall record on the season. John Lackey is 4-6 with a 5.12 ERA overall this year, 3-2 with a 5.10 ERA on the road this season and 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA his last 3 starts. Chicago Cubs are scoring 4.2 runs per game on the road this year and 4.2 runs per game against right handed starters this season. Chicago Cubs are 2-7 this year on the road when the money line is +125 to -125. NY Mets are 30-11 last 3 years when playing on Monday. We'll recommend a small play on the NY Mets tonight!
Jimmy Boyd
Rangers vs. Astros
Play: Astros -113
I really like the value here with Houston as a short home favorite against the Rangers. The Astros own the best record in baseball at 44-20 and a big part of that is there success at home, where they have gone 21-12 on the season. We are getting value here due to what most will perceive as a big edge on the mound for Texas with Yu Darvish going against Houston's Joe Musgrove.
This Astros lineup is so good it doesn't matter who is on the mound, there's a good chance they are going to put up some runs. In their last 15 games they have scored 5 or more runs 13 times, scoring at least 3 runs in all 15 games. I also don't think Musgrove is getting enough love here, as he's coming off a sensational start at home against the Orioles, allowing just 4 hits over 7 shutout innings.
Astros are 16-5 in their last 21 home games against a team with a losing road record, 16-5 in their last 21 during game 1 of a series, 21-8 in their last 29 against the AL West and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Power Sports
Colorado vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh
Very interesting line move here w/ Colorado currently taking 80% of the overall bets, yet the money line has actually INCREASED in favor of the Bucs. That's a sure sign that sharp money is on the home team here.
Colorado had its seven game win streak snapped yday at Wrigley as they fell 7-5 to the Cubs. Still taking three of four in that series is impressive as is the Rockies' now NL-best 24-11 road record. But is that sustainable? I'm skeptical. Tonight's starter Kyle Freeland has a perfect 6-0 team start record on the road, but his WHIP - both away and overall - isn't all too impressive. Another reason for skepticism with this club is the fact that four of their starters - Freeland among them - are rookies. I'd look for them to start slowing down, especially out on the road.
It should be an emotional scene tonight at PNC Park as Jameson Taillon makes his return to the mound after being out for over a month due to cancer treatment. Taillon's return is exactly the kind of thing that could turn around what has - so far - been a lost season in Pittsburgh. The team is just 28-35 overall, but they did manage to salvage a split here vs. Miami by taking the last two games. So the home team does have some "momentum" (there's that dreaded word again!) coming into this series.
Larry Ness
Texas vs. Houston
Pick: Houston
The Houston Astros won 7-3 last Monday, giving them an 11-game winning streak. However, they finished the week by losing four of six. Part of Houston's 11-game winning streak included a sweep at rival Texas and the Astros, who still own MLB's best record at 44-20, will look to start a new streaking when they host the Rangers on Monday in the opener of a three-game series. Texas has a 10-game winning streak of its own (May 9-19) but then lost 12 of 16. However, the 30-32 Rangers are inching their way back to .500, after earning an impressive series sweep of the NL East-leading Washington Nats this past weekend (Texas outscored Washington 16-6).
Yu Darvish (5-4, 3.18 ERA) gets the ball for Texas and Joe Musgrove (4-4, 4.89 ERA) for Houston. Darvish has allowed exactly three ERs in each of his last three outings (he's 0-2 with a 4.42 ERA and Texas is 0-3). One of those starts came against Houston (June 2), when he absorbed the loss while yielding three runs on seven hits in five innings of a 7-1 loss. Darvish is 4-5 with a 3.62 ERA over 13 career starts against the Astros (Texas is 7-6).
Musgrove is coming off the 10-day DL (shoulder) and is making his first start since May 26, when he tossed seven scoreless innings in a win over Baltimore while striking out six and not walking a batter. He has allowed two or fewer ERs in four of his last six outings, although Houston is just 3-3 in those games. Musgrove is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA in four career starts against the Rangers (team is 1-3).
The Astros look to back on track tonight after a 2-4 stretch since the team's 11-game winning streak ended and Darvish could be "just what the doctor ordered." After all, Darvish is 0-4 with a 5.81 ERA over his last six starts against Houston (Rangers are 1-5).
Brandon Lee
Yankees vs. Angels
Play: Angels +123
The public is going to be all over the Yankees in this one, as New York just made the Orioles look like a little league team over the weekend, outscoring Baltimore 38-8 in their 3-game series. That finished up quite a homestand, as they took 2 of 3 against Boston prior to that series, outscoring the Red Sox 17-1 in the final two games of that series. I just think this is a huge letdown spot for New York, as they travel across the country to take on a confident Angels team that just took 2 of 3 on the road against the best team in baseball (Astros). Yankees also send out the struggling Masahiro Tanaka, who has a 7.24 ERA and 1.763 WHIP in 6 road starts. Angels give the rock to Alex Meyer, who has a 2.25 ERA in 3 home starts and a 2.25 ERA over his last 3 outings.
Doc's Sports
Orioles vs. White Sox
Play: Orioles -112
U.S. Cellular Field is the site of the matchup between the Baltimore Orioles and the Chicago White Sox on Monday, June 12, 2017. The probable starting pitchers are Wade Miley for the Orioles and Mike Pelfrey for the White Sox.
Baltimore opens at -119 while Chicago opens at +109. The Orioles have a 31-27-2 over/under record and a 28-32-0 run line mark. The White Sox are 32-28-0 against the run line and have a 29-28-3 over/under record.
Valuable Baltimore Orioles Betting Trends
The Baltimore Orioles are 31-27-2 against the over/under
The Baltimore Orioles are 28-32-0 against the run line
Important Chicago White Sox Betting Trends
The Chicago White Sox are 29-28-3 against the over/under
The Chicago White Sox are 32-28-0 against the run line
Useful Pitching Statistics
The Orioles have a 31-29 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Wade Miley has a 2-3 record with an earned run average of 3.27 and a WHIP of 1.53. He has 58 strikeouts over his 63.1 innings pitched and he's given up 63 hits. He allows 9 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.35. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.05 and they have given up 228 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .263 against the bullpen and they've struck out 203 hitters and walked 84 batters. As a team, Baltimore allows 9.7 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.3 batters per nine innings. They are 24th in the league in team earned run average at 4.61. The Orioles pitchers collectively have given up 581 base hits and 277 earned runs. They have allowed 80 home runs this season, ranking them 9th in the league. Baltimore as a pitching staff has walked 219 batters and struck out 441. They have walked 3.6 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.3 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.48 and their FIP as a unit is 4.73.
Hitting Statistics
As a team Baltimore is hitting .250, good for 14th in the league. The Orioles hold a .422 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .305, which is good for 26th in baseball. They rank 11th in MLB with 8.8 hits per game. Adam Jones is hitting .257 with an on-base percentage of .297. He has 58 hits this season in 226 at bats with 28 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .429 and an OPS+ of 93. Jonathan Schoop is hitting .282 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .333. He has totaled 60 hits and he has driven in 33 men in 213 at bats. His OPS+ is 126 while his slugging percentage is at .521. The Orioles have 525 hits, including 97 doubles and 86 home runs. Baltimore has walked 157 times so far this season and they have struck out 540 times as a unit. They have left 399 men on base and have a team OPS of .726. They score 4.42 runs per contest and have scored a total of 265 runs this year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
Chicago has a 26-34 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 3.80, Mike Pelfrey has a 2-5 record and a 1.22 WHIP. He has 27 strikeouts over the 45 innings he's pitched. He's also given up 39 hits. He allows 7.8 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 4.6. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.43 and they have given up 147 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .205 against the White Sox bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 212 batters and walked 73 opposing hitters. As a team, Chicago allows 8.2 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.9 batters per nine innings. They are 17th in the league in team earned run average at 4.25. The White Sox pitchers as a team have surrendered 479 base knocks and 248 earned runs this season. They have given up 80 home runs this year, which ranks 10th in Major League Baseball. Chicago as a staff has walked 208 hitters and struck out 459 batters. They give up a walk 3.6 times per 9 innings while they strike out 7.9 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.31 while their FIP as a staff is 4.61.
Hitting Statistics
As a team, they are batting .256, good for 11th in the league. The White Sox hold a .407 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .314, which is good for 23rd in baseball. They rank 12th in MLB with 8.8 hits per contest. Avisail Garcia comes into this matchup batting .333 with an OBP of .373. He has 74 hits this year along with 42 RBI in 222 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .550 with an OPS+ of 150. Jose Abreu is hitting .282 this season and he has an OBP of .337. He has collected 66 hits in 234 at bats while driving in 34 runs. He has an OPS+ of 120 and a slugging percentage of .470. The White Sox as a unit have 525 base hits, including 86 doubles and 66 homers. Chicago has walked 150 times this year and they have struck out on 498 occasions. They have had 383 men left on base and have an OPS of .721. They have scored 4.43 runs per game and totaled 266 runs this season.