Wunderdog
Braves at Nationals
Pick: Under 9
Washington is a big park, great for pitchers, and the Atlanta Braves head out on the road ranked #18 in runs scored and #23 in slugging. At least starter Mike Foltynewicz (3.48 ERA) is on the mound, off a pair of strong performances allowing no runs in 14 innings. He has a 3.30 ERA on the road, but a 1-3 record as Atlanta doesn't score much for him away from home. Washington is on a 15-5-1 run UNDER the total, including 8-0-1 UNDER at home. The Nationals have Stephen Strasburg (7-2, 2.80 ERA) on the mound allowing two runs or less in five straight starts. Batters are hitting just .202 off him for the season with 89 Ks in 80+ innings and only 22 walks. He has faced Atlanta twice this season with a 2.45 ERA while striking out 21 in 14+ innings with three walks. The UNDER is 8-3-1 when Strasburg pitches, and this shapes up as a defensive duel.
Jimmy Boyd
Mariners at Twins
Play: Twins -122
I really like the value here with Minnesota as a short home favorite against the Mariners. The Twins continue to get no respect, despite the fact that we are now midway through June and they are 5-games over .500. Seattle was playing extremely well, but are trending in the wrong direction after losing 3 of their last 4 and more than anything we are fading Mariners' starter Yovani Gallardo. He's 2-6 with a 6.26 ERA and 1.608 WHIP in 12 starts overall. He's allowed 5 runs in each of his last 2 starts and has a 7.63 ERA over his last 3 outings. Twins counter with Adalberto Mejia, who has pitched well since joining the rotation and is trending in the right direction with a 3.37 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
ASA
Colorado at Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh
We have watched this line with much interest this morning and won’t hesitate to step in with a selection on Pittsburgh in this spot. The Pirates are 2-4 in Jameson Taillon’s 6 starts this season including 0-2 at home. The Rockies are 9-3 in Kyle Freeland’s 12 starts this season including 6-0 on the road. Also, the Rockies have one of the best road records in the majors. More wagers early on have come in on the Rockies as you would expect but the line is moving toward the Pirates who are a bigger favorite now than when the line first came out. The point is that the sharps (and bigger money) certainly have found what they’ve like here with Pittsburgh and we’re on board too. The Rockies lost yesterday afternoon at Chicago to end their winning streak. In terms of Colorado bouncing back tonight, the Rockies are poor 106-147 in night games the past 2+ seasons. The Pirates are 8-4 in home games this season where their money line price range is between -125 and -175. They are in that “sweet spot” for this one now tonight and Pittsburgh has reached double digits in hits in 8 of their last 10 games. Off of back to back wins the Pirates finally have some momentum going in their favor again and we fully expect that momentum to carry right into this series. Public money doesn’t bet against one of the hottest road teams (Rockies) in the league folks! In other words, some sharp money is coming in on the Pirates in this one.
Brad Wilton
Monday night comp play release is the Over in Game Five of the NBA Finals.
I know that Cleveland is not going to shoot the way they shot on Friday night at home, but it's hard to argue with the fact the last 3 games in this series have all landed Over the total.
The Cavaliers are now 12-5 Over the total in their 17 postseason games, while the Warriors are 8-1 Over the total in their last 9 playoff games, and 12-4 Over the total overall in their 16 postseason games contested.
Those numbers tell me that even with a "puffy" total posted for tonight's 5th game, these teams are capable of attaining that number and then some.
Cavs-Dubs Over for Monday.
3* CLEVELAND-GOLDEN STATE OVER
Jeff Benton
Big, big total at Oracle Arena for Monday night's 5th game of the NBA Finals, but after getting burned on Friday by looking low at Quicken Loans Arena, I will side with the Over in Game 5 tonight between the Cavaliers and the Warriors.
Cleveland shot light's out (53%) from behind the arc on Friday, and raced to a massive 49 points by the end of the first quarter as Game 4 was the easiest Over ever. While I don't feel that a similar shooting night is in store for the visiting Cavs, I do think they will be able to put up enough to combined with Golden State on another series Over.
Each of the last 3 games in this series have played Over the total, and the Cavaliers are on a 9-4 Over run their last 13 postseason games leading into tonight's showdown.
Golden State is also on an "offensive" surge, landing Over the price in 8 of their last 9, and 12 of their 16 playoff games this postseason.
The numbers are there to support the Over, and so is the scoring to get us Over the posted total.
Game 5, Cleveland-Golden State to head Over the total.
1* CLEVELAND-GOLDEN STATE OVER
Eric Schroeder
My free play for Monday is on the Washington Nationals on the Run Line, over the visiting Atlanta Braves. The Nats are back in division play, after playing outside the National League East the past few weeks, and that's bad news for a struggling Atlanta team.
Especially since the Nationals were swept in three games at home over the weekend by the Rangers. Washington will be pissed off, and will tee off the Braves, who have lost three in a row.
That said, I don't mind knowing Stephen Strasburg will be on the hill tonight, as he is 7-2 with a 2.80 ERA this season and has been outstanding in recent outings against the Braves.
The fireballer is 6-1 with a 2.68 ERA in eight starts against the Braves since the start of the 2015 season. So if he goes, great. If not, won't matter.
Washington wins big, and that's your comp winner.
1* NATIONALS -1.5
Jack Brayman
Looking for my sixth straight comp winner after hitting the Los Angeles Dodgers on the Run Line, over the Cincinnati Reds, a 9-7 winner. Tonight I look for the New York Mets to get it done against the surprisingly struggling Chicago Cubs.
The defending World Series champs are not in a good place, as they reside in second place in the National League Central, one game back of the Milwaukee Brewers. The Cubs are just 11-16 on the road, and now hit the road once again.
The Cubs have the third-worst batting average in the month of June, a dreaded .225 clip.
Meanwhile, the Mets have won three in a row, after coming out of Atlanta by dominating the Braves. They're healthy once again, as they're going to benefit by the return of outfielder Yoenis Cespedes and starting pitchers Steven Matz and Seth Lugo - all of whom were on the disabled list.
Look for the Mets to score the win in this series-opener, and don't worry about listing pitchers here.
4* METS
Chris Jordan
My free play is in Chicago, where I'm headed to the South Side, and playing the White Sox against the Baltimore Orioles. It's a matchup of slumping teams, yes, but the Orioles were just demoralized in the Bronx, and now head to Chicago to continue their road trip. This won't be good.
The White Sox return home after losing two of three in Cleveland, where they concluded an eight-game road trip with a 4-2 loss to the Indians yesterday. Of course, the one win they scored was against my play on the Tribe on Saturday. Those bastards!
Well, now the Pale Hose are in a good position to turn their fortune around and take advantage of an Orioles team that has lost four consecutive games by a combined margin of 44-9.
Not only is Baltimore mired in a four-game slump, but it is also in a 6-14 rut and is batting a meager .230 in June, the fourth-worst batting average this month.
Take the White Sox, and don't bother listing pitchers - it is not important, and rarely is. Anyone who insists listing every game is also buying beachside property in the swamp. Remember that.
2* WHITE SOX
Scott Rickenbach
Cavs vs. Warriors
Play: Under 231
Just ridiculously hot shooting and a frenetic pace has allowed 3 straight games in this series to fly over the total. However, one of those 3 overs "only" totaled 231 which is roughly where the Game 5 total sits. Also, in another elimination game for Cleveland and with the fact that Golden State allowed the Cavaliers to hit 24 of 45 three pointers in Game 4, there is truly a nice set up here for expecting some solid defense to be played! The under is 36-19 in Cavs games where they are an underdog the past 3 seasons combined. Also, the under is 9-5 this season in Warriors games with a posted total of 230 points or more. Even with all the craziness in this series, the under is still 22-12 this season in Golden State's games against teams from the Eastern Conference. The under is also 4-2 this season when the Warriors are off of a loss by a double digit margin and also the under is 10-4 this season in games where the Warriors are coming off of an upset loss as a favorite.
Brad Diamond
Rockies vs. Pirates
Play:Rockies +130
The Rockies (41-24) come storming in after taking the recent road series at Wrigley Field, despite losing Sunday. Pittsburgh (28-35) at home just defeated Miami 3-1 with a great performance from hurler Nova. Colorado has a 1-1/2 game lead in the powerful West Division over LA, and 2 games ahead of Arizona. Along with the Rockies the three teams combined are averaging 40 wins to-date. The Pirates are in last place inside the NL Central where just Milwaukee has a winning record? Lefty Freeland/Colorado are 6-0 with a 2.91 ERA in road starts this season. With Jameson Taillon of the Pirates arriving off the DL since back in May, it appears the visitor has the major edges.
Jack Jones
Texas at Houston
Play: Texas +106
The Texas Rangers are showing solid value as road dogs to the Houston Astros Monday. They just swept one of the best teams in the Washington Nationals on the road, and now they come into Game 1 of this series with a ton of confidence. They'll also be motivated because not only are they trailing the Astros in their division, but they were swept by Houston just a week ago at home from June 2-4.
We're getting the better starter here at an underdog price in Yu Darvish. The ace has gone 5-4 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.134 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 2-2 with a 2.97 ERA in five road starts. Darvish has posted a 3.62 ERA and 1.110 WHIP in 13 career starts against Houston as well.
Joe Musgrove is 4-4 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.425 WHIP in 10 starts for the Astros, including 2-4 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.459 WHIP in seven home starts. Musgrove has gone 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.385 WHIP in four career starts against Texas as well.
Texas is 7-2 in Darvish's last nine road starts. The Rangers are 4-0 in their last four road games. Texas is 5-0 in road games vs. good power teams who average 1.25 or more HR's/game this season. The Rangers are 4-1 in Darvish's last five starts at Houston.
John Martin
Cubs vs. Mets
Play: Over 8½
Two of the better lineups in the National League go toe-to-toe today as the Cubs visit the Mets for a three-game series. The Cubs are scoring 4.6 runs per game this season and still haven't reached their potential. The Mets have scored 4.9 runs per game and are 35-18 to the OVER this season, and now their best hitter in Yoenis Cespedes is back in the lineup. John Lackey is 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA in his last three starts, and 4-6 with a 5.12 ERA in 12 overall starts this year. Jacob DeGrom is having a down year at 4-3 with a 4.75 ERA in 12 starts, including 0-2 with a 16.88 ERA in his last two starts in which he has allowed 15 earned runs in 8 innings. The wind will be blowing out to right field at 13 miles per hour come game time as well, which should help aid this OVER.
Teddy Davis
Rockies vs. Pirates
Play: Pirates -129
Odds makers are clearly making a statement on who they like here. The Rockies have been a great surprise so far this season, but after taking 3 of 4 from the Cubs I believe this is a major let down spot for them here tonight. Talillon is a youngster with a ton of talent, he has a 3.31 ERA on the year. I look for the Pirates to take this game tonight pretty easily
Dave Price
Yankees vs. Angels
Play: Yankees -131
The New York Yankees are rolling right now as they have won 5 straight while outscoring the opposition 55-9 in the process. They have averaged 11 runs per game during this winning streak. Masahiro Tanaka hasn't pitched to his potential this season, but he has never lost to the Angels, going 1-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts against them. The Yankees have gone 3-0 in those 3 outings. The Yankees are 16-1 after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better this season.
Pro Computer Gambler
Braves vs. Nationals
Play: Nationals -225
Today we have 5 major sports betting systems active (cumulatively) in support of the Nationals. Each system sports at least a 10% roi in a sample of 200 or more games per system. In addition, we have the PCG 2017 MLB Raw Numbers (now at 410-346 +88.02 units) in agreement on this one.
SAMPLE KEY PCG SYSTEM:
Since 2004, home teams with a starter with a greater win percent than the starter opponent's is 712-479 59.8% SU +56.72 units when both starters' WHIPs are under 1.3.
Isolating 200+ favorites, and no 2 game series this is 9326 +30.08 units +10.7% roi SU!
Active to play on the Nationals!