SPORTS WAGERS
PITTSBURGH -1½ +159 over Colorado
While the Pirates continue to frustrate their backers, a two-game win streak puts them in a much better state of mind after that morale lowering series in Baltimore last week. In fact, the Pirates have been in position to win five in a row but at least this is a start. The Pirates also belted out 13 hits on Friday, 18 hits on Saturday and 11 hits on Sunday, which also makes a huge difference.
By contrast, the Rockies had a huge uplifting weekend series in Chicago. They played the champs four times and nearly completed the sweep yesterday but still won three of four. It was a packed house all weekend long and the Rockies put the league on notice that they’re for real. Now they’ll travel to Pittsburgh to play in a more subdued atmosphere and chances are great that the Rocks will suffer a mental and physical letdown. This line strongly suggests that too, which brings us to the starters.
Kyle Freeland comes in with a 3.34 ERA after 12 starts, which appears even better when you consider that he pitches half his games at Coors but it truly looks like things will turn bumpy soon for Freeland. His great success has more to do with a high strand % and low hr/f than skill. His xERA (4.87) shows that he's due for a sizable ERA correction. His command has been lousy (and declining as he's moved up the ladder), and neither his K-rate history nor his current first-pitch strike rate and swinging strikes offer any hope for improvement. And a pitcher with control problems who puts a lot of balls in play is always a big risk. Our scouting report of Freeland stated that his change-up lags behind his fastball and slider in quality, adding that the lack of a dependable third pitch complicates his true outcome. Freeland's poor skills thus far seem to back up that assessment. His 1.34 WHIP confirms that luck has played a major role and we all know luck doesn’t hold up over time.
James Taillon will be back just five weeks after undergoing testicular cancer surgery. In 14 innings during his minor league rehab, Taillon had 21/3 K/BB. He was 2-1 with a 3.31 ERA (3.82 xERA) at the time of his cancer diagnosis, which is good, not great, however, this kid is going to be a beast sooner rather than later. Last year, Taillon went 5-4 with a 3.38 ERA in 104 innings. It was an excellent debut, especially considering he was coming off two lost seasons following TJ surgery. There are nothing but positive signs here from stellar control to a strong groundball tilt to off the charts command versus righties. Taillon also has a top prospect pedigree and his second half rise in swing and miss rate hint at potential for higher strikeouts so his rise to ace status could happen quickly. Get him before it does.
CHICAGO +102 over Baltimore
We’re not going to focus on Mike Pelfrey here because he’s a weak pitcher with very little upside that could get blown up here. The focus here is fading the Orioles on the road and here’s why…..
The Orioles not only were swept in New York but they were outscored 38-7 in the three games. Getting blown out is no big deal but being behind 6-0 in the first inning on Saturday and 5-0 in the first inning on Sunday is a big deal. That makes for a very long weekend of knowing you’re going to lose before the game is two innings old. It also taxes the bullpen in a big way. Now the Orioles will drag their poor form and sorry asses to the South Side of Chicago as a road favorite with Wade Miley pitching.
Miley’s numbers look good on paper (63 IP – 58 K’s – 3.27 ERA) but underneath tells a different story. Miley’s has walked a troubling 34 batters. His first-strike rate in his last game was 33% and his overall balls thrown % is the fourth worst mark in the game. Over his last 27 innings, Miley was walked 11 batters and struck out 15. Miley’s 58 K’s in 63 innings also looks good but the sub-indicators do not support those K’s. Miley’s swing and miss rate is 8%. His swing and miss rate over his last five starts is 6%. This is a pitcher that is getting on his 82% strand rate and very good groundball rate. His numbers scream regression (4.85 xERA) and his historical dominant start/disaster start percentage points to low ceiling. Finally, Miley is a left and it may surprise you to learn that the South Side own the best team batting average in the majors versus lefties and the second worst versus righties. As a dog versus southpaws at home, the South Side are very worthy.
SAN DIEGO -1½ +172 over Cincinnati
As Bronson Arroyo’s fastball velocity continues to slide (it tops off at 84 MPH now), his ERA and xERA will remain at or get worse than the nightmare it’s already at this year. When you throw that slow with so many fly-balls, those baseballs are inevitably going to leave the park at a high clip. In 63 innings, Arroyo has been tagged for 20 jacks. His 31%/48% fly-ball/groundball split is wretched. His first-pitch strike rate over his last seven starts is 52%. Arroyo tried throwing more first-pitch strikes but there's no fixing this without velocity and/or groundball %. Does he even get another contract? Probably not. We’ll fade until Arroyo isn’t showing up on the probable’s anymore.
We wrote back in April that Luis Perdomo was a work in progress worth monitoring, as he displayed some interesting attributes beneath the unsightly surface stats in 2016. Despite the 5.47 ERA through his first 54 IP of 2017, there are many reason for optimism, as Perdomo’s skill are intriguinging. He has always done a fine job of keeping the ball on the ground and his groundball rate (66%) has reached elite status in 2017. Perdomo’s groundball rate is tops in the league among pitchers with 40 or more innings. Perdomo hasn’t been able to maintain the second half 2016 control gains, but his current rate is supported by Ball% and his first-pitch strike rate hints at a little additional upside. Heightened usage of his best swing-and-miss offering—the curve (23%)—has been the driving force behind the swing and miss supported strikeout growth (Usage 2016/2017: 20%/32%). Perdomo has been plagued by strand% and hr/f misfortune, as evidenced by an xERA nearly two full runs better than his ERA. The results on paper haven’t been there for Perdomo but that should not detract from the real growth he has displayed in 2017. The 23-year-old has already shown the capacity and willingness to make adjustments, as seen by the drastic changes in his pitch mix since the first half of 2016 (scrapping his ineffective four-seam fastball in favor of more sinkers and curves) so with better luck, there is going to be much brighter days ahead. Start betting him before the market catches up. Perdomo in the -120 range versus Arroyo is grossly underpriced so play it any way you want. We’ll spot the 1½-runs.
LV Traders
Mariners at Twins
Pick: Twins
Play Minnesota 1st 5 SEA 7-12 vs LHP 7-21 on road 26-29 on season 9-15 L/30 days 12-20 in night games MIN 23-19 vs RHP 29-21 on season 13-11 L/30 days 16-9 in night games.
Harry Bondi
NY METS (-140) over Chicago Cubs
The average bettor will be jumping on the Cubs at a plus price against the Mets, but it’s New York that comes in as the hotter team with three wins in a row and four out of five while the Cubbies have lost four of five. Cubs starter John Lackey started the season very well, but has been awful as of late, with an 0-2 record and 6.00 ERA in his last three starts. Mets have won six of the last nine meetings between these teams in this ballpark and get it done again tonight in the rare role of favorite