DAVE COKIN
MARLINS VS. PADRES
PLAY: PADRES +100
I haven’t made many plays on the Padres this season. I don’t expect to suddenly start backing the Friars on even an occasional basis, as they’re a pretty mediocre baseball team. But I like their chances tonight as they open a set against the Marlins.
One thing the Padres have done surprisingly well this season is hit lefties. They’ve got some offensive numbers against southpaws that are actually kind of startling, particularly at what is supposed to be a pitcher-friendly Petco Park.
I’ll hope those San Diego bats are in play tonight, as they get set to swing against Wei-Yin Chen. Chen has been very spotty for Miami, and while his ledger isn’t disastrous by any means, I think it’s fair to classify him as at least a mild disappointment to date. Given the success SD has enjoyed against lefties at home, I believe they’ve got a decent chance to plate their share of runs this evening.
Colin Rea is strictly back of the rotation material for the Padres, and even that might be a somewhat generous assessment. But the fact is that Rea has done enough to give his team a chance in most of his outings, and that’s all I’m looking for this evening. If Rea has one of his stronger games, that’s great. But I’ll settle for six innings and three runs, as if he can give me that, I like my chances of the Padres getting more against Chen.
From the for what it’s worth category, I see a mild line indicator that would seem to support my side. I’ve got my own opinion as to which two shops are the sharpest, both here in Nevada as well as on the offshore scene. In this game, the two betting lines that tilt most to the San Diego side are those two stores. That’s hardly cause to blindly bet, but when push comes to shove, I prefer being with what I consider to be the sharper houses.
Most eyes tonight will be focused on the big Game Five duel between the Cavaliers and Warriors. That goes for me as well. But I’ll also be looking in on the Marlins-Padres game, and I’ll have my money on the San Diego side tonight.
Sleepyj
Warriors -5.5
Cavs seem to be an obvious choice here..Must win game and now Draymond Green is suspended..Big key for me here is the fact that the Warriors got Thompson and Klay going...These two might go off again and Green being off the court won't hurt much..Still got Iggy and the rest of the characters..Livingston abuses Kyrie in the paint and the fresh bodies for GS will take a toll here on the Cavs..Lebron will need the eye of the tiger type of game and we never see it...Drive to the paint and jump in a circle and pass the ball..The killer instinct he does not have...It's going to be very tough for the Cavs to win in this building with this crowd and the leagues MVP heating up right now..Warriors close out the NBA season tonight and the Cavs.
Rob Vinciletti
Phillies vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -1½
The Jays have won 7 of 8 here vs the Phillies and apply to a powerful system that is 58-9 since 2004 playing on home favorites in this range off home win scoring 10 or more runs with 1 or less errors vs an opponent off a road dog loss scoring 4 or less runs on 5+ hits also with 1 or less errors, like the Phillies. Philadelphia is 0-8 on Monday and 0-3 this year on the road off a 1 run road loss. Eickhoff is 0-5 on the road with a 6.41 Era. R.A. Dickey for the Jays has won his last 3 starts vs Philly and has a 2.60 era over his last 3 starts. Play the Jays.
Mike Lundin
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks -163
The Los Angeles Dodgers dropped two of three at San Francisco over the weekend, and this looks like a good spot to go against them as they visit another NL West rival in the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Former Dodgers pitcher Zack Greinke (8-3, 3.84) will take the ball for the home team. He's been excellent in recent starts, allowing just a total of seven hits and two walks with 13 Ks through 16 scoreless innings in his last two outings. He's 2-0 with 2.52 ERA in four career starts against the Dodgers, his team from 2013-15, and the current Dodgers are batting .196 with 17 strikeouts over 56 at bats against the right-hander.
The Dodgers turn to Mike Bolsinger (1-3, 5.75 ERA) who will make his fourth start of the year. He was reached for six runs on seven hits with a pair of homers in 5 1/3 innings of a 6-1 defeat against Colorado his last time out. Bolsinger made 10 appearances for Arizona in his debut season back in 2014, but his former team is batting .302 over 53 at bats against him. Jean Segura is 5-for-8 with a pair of triples off Bolsinger and he's coming in hot going 6-for-16 in his last four games.
LA Dodgers' .232 batting average is the third worst mark in the major leagues this season. They need solid starting pitching to win, something I don't think Bolsinger can provide tonight.
Marc Lawrence
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks -166
Edges - Diamondbacks: Zack Greinke 4-0 career team starts versus Dodgers, and 12-2 last 14 home team starts during June. Dodgers: Mike Bolsinger: 5-13 last 18 overall away team starts, and 1-3 team starts at night this season. With Grienke in strong KW form with 29 K’s and 4 BB’s his last five starts, we recommend a 1* play on Arizona.
Matt Josephs
Cubs vs. Nationals
Play: Cubs +140
The Cubs come to DC to try and win their fifth straight this year over the Nats. They get another look at Max Scherzer who has been hot and cold all year long. One of those cold outings came in Wrigley last month when he allowed seven runs and seven hits in five innings. He has a 4.50 ERA in four home outings and is very capable of shutting Chicago down. The Cubs are raking right now scoring six runs or more in four of their last six and have the bats to hit Mad Max. Kyle Hendricks is 4-5 with a 2.77 ERA and a WHIP of 0.922 in 11 starts. He has gone four straight starts giving up two runs or less. Hendricks is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in three career starts vs. Washington. One of those wins came back on May 5th when he held them to two hits and two walks in six innings. Washington is taking care of business against the bad teams right now. They finished a stretch of Phillies, Reds, White Sox, Phillies and now have the Cubs for three before heading West. I'll back Chicago at this price as I just don't believe in Washington.
Bob Harvey
Cleveland at Golden St
Play: Golden St -5½
“Turn out the Lights, the Party’s Over” is an old country music classic that was made famous by Dandy Don Meredith—back in the day-- on Monday Night Football. It’s a song that the Cleveland Cavaliers will be singing UNLESS they find a win to win three straight games against the Golden State Warriors beginning with tonight’s Game 5 in Oakland. The defending champion Warriors lead the NBA finals 3-1.
The Cavaliers (70-30, 47-50 ATS) is well aware no team has ever recovered from a 3-1 series deficit to win the NBA Finals. Then there’s the fact that the Cavaliers lost the first two games of the series at Oracle Arena by an average of 24 points. James has done his part averaging 24.8 points, 11 rebounds and 8.3 assists in the series. However he’s also averaged 5.8 turnovers per game.
The Warriors (88-15, 59-42 ATS) will be without All-Star Draymond Green who received a one-game suspension flagrant 1 foul on Sunday for a Game 4 incident in which he hit Cleveland forward LeBron James in the groin. Two-time MVP Stephen Curry looks like he’s back on track after scoring 38 points in the 108-97 victory in Game 4, this after he averaged just 16 points in the first three games and didn't even have a 20-point outing before regaining his form and setting the tone for the road victory
Cleveland is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 visits to Oakland and 1-4 ATS in the last five overall. Even more distressing for the Cavs: they’re 1-6 vs. the number in their last seven NBA championship games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Larry Ness
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres
Prediction: San Diego Padres
Tyson Ross hasn't pitched since Opening Day and Andrew Cashner joined Ross on the disabled list Saturday. Then there is the infamous “Big Game James” Shields, who was recently traded to the Chicago White Sox. That trio accounts for three-fifths of San Diego’s staring rotation from Opening Day. Sixty-four games later, Drew Pomeranz (No. 5 starter to begin the season) is the ace of the staff and Colin Rea (3-2, 4.74 ERA) has been the second-most active Padres starter. Rea faces the Miami Marlins tonight in the opener of a three-game series at Petco Park with the Marlins.
The Miami Marlins kick off the final leg of their nine-game road trip, with all games coming against losing teams. However, the Marlins have so far failed to take advantage of an easy schedule. Miami was shut out 6-0 by Arizona in Phoenix, falling to 2-4 after two stops of its three-city trip. Wei-Yin Chen (3-2, 4.56 ERA) gets the nod, making his 12th start of the season (Marlins are 6-6). While this marks his 130th career start, he has never faced the Padres. Chen did not factor into the decision for the fourth straight time Wednesday at Minnesota, surrendering five ERs on nine hits (including three HRs) over 5.1 innings of a loss to the Twins. He boasts a solid 57-16 KW ratio but has given up 11 HRs in 12 starts.
This will be the first meeting of the season between the two teams, as Rea squares off against Chen. Pomeranz is the only member of the Padres rotation who has made every start this season. Rea missed one when the Padres optioned him to Triple-A back on May 23 as a way to control his innings. However, Rea was rushed back to “the bigs” after Cesar Vargas went on the DL. Shields was traded to the White Sox on June 4 and a check of the team’s ‘stat book’ reveals that the Padres have already used 10 starting pitchers this season.
This marks Rea’s 12th start of 2016 and he comes off recording his first quality start over his last five outings. He allowed three runs on six hits and a pair of walks over seven innings but did not factor into the decision against Atlanta. Rea owns a 4.74 ERA on the season but it should be noted that he has allowed three ERs or less in EIGHT of his 11 starts since joining the rotation in early April. Then again his most recent start against Atlanta marked only the third time he lasted more than six innings.
San Diego is an NL West-worst 26-38 but recent history between the two teams favors the Padres, who have won NINE of the last 12 meetings.
Jesse Schule
Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals +1.5
The Royals have underachieved so far, but they are still just three games out of first in the AL Central. They come into Game 1 of a home series versus Cleveland off back to back wins on the road in Chicago. Edinson Volquez will toe the rubber for the Royals, and he's pitched well at home this season. Volquez (5-6, 4.25 ERA) allowed four runs on four hits in 4 2/3 innings in a loss at Baltimore his last time out. He's lost twice to Cleveland this season, but both of those losses came on the road. He's 3-2 with a 2.38 ERA in seven starts in Kansas City in 2016. The Indians hand the ball to Carlos Carrasco, who is coming off his first loss of the season. Carrasco (2-1, 3.48 ERA) gave up four runs on five hits, including a pair of home runs in a 5-0 loss to Seattle his last time out. He hasn't fooled Lorenzo Cain, who is batting .364 lifetime against him. The Royals bullpen is still the best in the major leagues, boasting an ERA of 2.61.
Will Rogers
Belgium vs Italy
Pick: Belgium
Group E has been labeled as the "Group of Death" of the Euro Championship 2016, with Belgium, Ireland, Italy and Sweden battling to make it to the knockout stage. While not an easy group, I'm confident that we'll find Belgium to of the group come the end of the group-stage.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. A Class Above The Competition - The "Group of Death" label refers more to the competitiveness of the other three teams in the group. Belgium is the highest ranked team in Europe on the Fifa rankings, and second in the world. The biggest threat, Italy, are nowhere near the quality they used to be, and they've failed to even make it out of the group stage in each of the last two World Cups.
2. Great Offensive Chemistry - Eden Hazard is coming off a disastrous season with Chelsea, but he always links up well with Kevin de Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku in the national team.
3. X-Factor - Belgium has become a very popular team for the mainstream fan to support, and with the country sharing a border with France we can expect the crowd support for the Red Devils to be massive.
Jim Feist
Cincinnati at Atlanta
Pick: Over
Both clubs having seasons they would like to forget. The Reds are 24-39 while the Braves are a dismal 18-44 with just seven home wins. So today, I'm looking at the OVER. The Reds have been a good road over team, especially against right handed pitchers where they are 8-1-1 O/U their last 10. Daniel Wright has done just about everything wrong so far for the Reds. Wright is 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. Wright has just three appearances and 10 innings, but he's allowed 19 hits and 11 runs. The Braves took one of three games from the Cubs, but allowed 22 runs in the process. Today's starter, Aaron Blair is 0-4 with a 7.13 ERA and 1.84 WHIP. Both these pitchers still looking for that first win and if one of them can go five innings today, they will get in the win column. For me, I'll just sit back and enjoy the runs.
Scott Rickenbach
Chicago at Washington
Play: Washington -125
The Cubs attracted a lot of attention as a sizable dog here and that drove the line down this morning. This makes this a great spot for line value with the small home favorite. Max Scherzer is looking for payback after he struggled in Chicago against the Cubs in early May. He allowed 4 homers in that start. An unusual bad outing for Scherzer who, by the way, shutout the Cubs plus struck out 13 in 7 innings in his prior start against them. He comes into this outing with a 1.20 ERA in his last 2 starts while striking out 17 in 15 innings of work. Scherzer will be opposed by Kyle Hendricks tonight. The Cubs right-hander was hit quite hard in his only career start at Washington and was fortunate only 2 earned runs came in during that five inning effort in DC. The Cubs are only 1-4 in Hendricks road starts this season. The Nationals are 15-6 in games with a posted total of 7 runs or less this season. In a game that is expected to be a low-scoring match-up Monday, I'll side with the small home favorite with the veteran hurler on the mound seeking revenge.
Jimmy Boyd
Tigers -102
Detroit is worth a look here at basically a pick'em at home against the White Sox. These two teams are headed in different directions. After that great start to the season, Chicago is below .500 at 31-32. Detroit has won 7 of their last 9 and are going to have an edge here on the mound.
The White Sox will give the ball to newly acquired starter James Shields, who had an awful first start with the team last week, giving up 7 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks in just 2 innings of work. That came after his previous start against the Mariners, where he allowed 10 runs on 8 hits and 4 walks in 2 2/3 innings. Clearly there's something not wright with Shields and Detroit is not going to be an easy opponent to get things turned around against.
Tigers will counter with Matt Boyd, who has pitched in his 3 starts, despite not getting a win in any of those outings. Boyd has a strong 1.261 WHIP in those 3 outings, and is coming off his best start. He allowed just 1 run on 3 hits in 5 1/3 innings against a stacked Toronto offense. I like his chances of pitching well here, as he faces a Chicago offense that has totaled just 2 runs in their last 2 games and is hitting just .235 as a team at home on the season.
Detroit is 10-3 in their last 13 road games after allowing 1 run or less in their previous game, while Chicago is 2-7 in their last 9 against a left-handed starter, 2-10 in their last 12 after scoring 2 runs or less in previous game and 3-13 in their last 16 against division opponents.
Michael Alexander
Milwaukee at San Francisco
Play: Milwaukee +128
The Milwaukee Brewers begin a nine-game, 10-day road trip Monday in San Francisco on a high note after going 4-2 during their just-completed home stand against Oakland and the New York Mets Milwaukee starter, Anderson took a no-hitter into the sixth inning against Oakland on Thursday and has a 2.03 ERA over his last five starts. Anderson has not allowed a walk over his last three outings. San Francisco starter, Cain is 3-8 with a 4.90 ERA in 12 career starts against the Brewers.
Power Sports
Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals
Pick: Washington Nationals
Tonight will mark just the sixth game this season that the Cubs have been a money line underdog. As tempting as the price may be, the Nationals have big-time revenge here and their own price is just as attractive considering it will be Max Scherzer starting at home.
Washington comes into this series having won six of its last seven and they're off a not very surprising sweep of the lowly Phillies over the weekend. They are averaging an impressive 7.7 rpg during the 6-1 stretch. I have to go back to the revenge angle for a minute as it's just too hard to beat the same opponent every time. As good as the Cubs are (and they have been - by far - the best team in baseball all season long), I have the Nats rated third in my own personal power rankings. Again, that makes this a really attractive price considering who is going to be on the mound.
Scherzer has a 2.86 ERA and 0.909 WHIP his L3 starts. Those numbers aren't as good as what the Cubs' Kyle Hendricks is showing and really one could make the case that Hendricks is as unlucky as any starter in all of baseball considering the team he plays for and his team start record is only 5-6 despite a 0.922 WHIP for the season. But, I'm still going to trust Scherzer more in this spot as he just threw seven scoreless innings of five-hit ball his last time out.