OSKEIM SPORTS
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres
Play: Miami Marlins -116
San Diego right-hander Colin Rea owns a 4.67 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this season, including a 4.46 ERA and 1.16 WHIP within the friendly confines of PETCO Park. The young hurler also owns a 4.39 FIP, 4.71 xFIP, 4.81 SIERA, 16.2% K%, 9.2% BB% and a 7.0% K-BB%. Rea posted a 5.32 xFIP in the month of May and currently has a 4.39 xFIP at home.
Rea finds little support in a bad San Diego bullpen that owns 4.70 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 2016, including posting a 4.98 ERA and 1.39 WHIP at home and a 4.28 ERA and 1.30 WHIP at night. Miami sends Wei-Yin Chen to the mound, who is 2-1 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.04 WHIP on the road. Chen's metrics are nothing to get overly excited about - 4.24 FIP, 4.09 xFIP and 4.11 SIERA, but his 3.53 xFIP away from home supports our investment on the Marlins.
Chen garnered a 3.86 FIP in the month of May with a solid 8.36 K/9 rate (15.5% K-BB%). The southpaw should have success against a scuffling San Diego lineup that is averaging just 4.0 runs per game this season (.237 AVG.; .289 OBP; .663 OPS), including 3.8 runs per game at home (.233 AVG.; .286 OBP; .644 OPS). Technically speaking, Miami is a profitable 9-2 in its last 11 games versus National League West foes and 4-1 in Chen's last five starts with four days of rest.
In contrast, the Padres are a money-burning 1-9 in their last ten games versus teams with a winning record, including 1-6 at home. Take Miami in Game 1 of this series and invest with confidence.
Jack Jones
Cleveland Indians -133
The Cleveland Indians have a huge edge on the mound tonight over the Kansas City Royals. They also take on a banged-up Royals team that has lost eight of its last 10 games overall coming in.
Carlos Carrasco is 2-1 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.099 WHIP in six starts this season, including 1-1 with a 2.60 ERA and 0.692 WHIP in three road starts. The right-hander is 6-3 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.190 WHIP in 12 career starts against Kansas City as well.
Edinson Volquez has certainly struggled to regain the form he showed last season during the World Series run. He's 5-6 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.417 WHIP in 13 starts this year. Volquez does not enjoy facing the Indians, going 2-6 with an 8.12 ERA and 2.049 WHIP in nine career starts against them.
The Indians are 7-0 in their last seven vs. AL Central opponents. Cleveland is 6-0 in Carrasco's last six starts during Game 1 of a series. The Indians are 10-3 in Carrasco's last 13 road starts. Cleveland is 13-3 in its last 16 after scoring 5 runs or more in its previous game.
Brandon Lee
Rangers +114
Texas is worth a look here as they are showing great value as a decently priced road dog against the A's. The Rangers will have to turn to Cesar Ramos after it was announced that Yu Darvish wouldn't be able to go. Ramos isn't a bad option to turn to, as he's got a 2.76 ERA in 3 starts this season. Oakland will send out the inconsistent Sean Manaea, who has a 6.20 ERA and 1.466 WHIP in 8 starts. Texas is going to be highly motivated after getting swept by the A's last time they visited Oakland, plus the Rangers are playing the much better baseball at the moment.
Dave Price
Los Angeles Angels -120
We're getting to fade the worst team in the American League in the Minnesota Twins (19-43) at the small price of only -120 tonight. I know the Los Angeles Angels have been struggling as well, but they are certainly the better team here with the better starter on the mound in my opinion. Jered Weaver is 9-2 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in 17 lifetime starts vs. Minnesota. Ricky Nolasco is 2-4 with a 5.17 ERA in 12 starts this year. He's also 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.778 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles. Weaver is 104-45 (+35.7 Units) against the money line in home games in his career. Minnesota is 1-15 (-14.1 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season.
Cajun Sports
Cubs vs. Nationals
Play: Over 7
The Cubs are in the nation’s capital for a three-game set against the host Washington Nationals. The Cubs will send Kyle Hendricks to the bump with his 4-5 SU record and an ERA of 2.77. The Nats will counter with Max Scherzer who is 7-4 SU with an ERA of 3.57 on the season. The Cubs are 10-3 Over when Hendricks starts on the road against a team with a winning record and they have a record of 6-2 Over their last eight on the road. The Nationals are 41-19-6 Over at home including a run of 8-1-1 Over their last ten in the capital. One final tech element involving the Nationals we see they are 11-1 Over as home chalk coming off a victory in which they did not issue a single walk. When these two clubs face-off in Washington the Over has posted a record of 16-7 Over the last twenty-three meetings in DC. Our BbTPR Index projects a total run average for tonight’s game of 9.57 runs. The BbMM projects a total run differential of +3.78 runs against a total range of 6.5 to 8.0. With significant support for the high side we will play this one to sail Over the posted total.
Nelly
Milwaukee Brewers + over San Francisco Giants
With expectations for 2016 that were extremely low the Brewers have been a pleasant surprise, only three games below .500 and creeping into the wild card race. Improvement in the pitching staff has been a primary cause and Chase Anderson is central in that regard. Anderson is 3-1 in his last five starts and he has allowed just 10 earned runs over his last six starts walking only four batters in that run as well. Anderson isn't a big swing and miss producer but his command has been sharp and he has minimized the home run damage of late after allowing eight home runs in his first six starts of the season. The Milwaukee bullpen also owns an ERA below 3.00 in the past 10 games and AT&T Park is favorable for pitching. The Giants had a late night game last night and Matt Cain is certainly hard to count on. He has just one win in 10 starts this season last starting on May 27 following a hamstring strain. In the last 10 games the Giants are batting .192 as a team and they have topped four runs just once in the last seven games. Cain has allowed three or more runs in half of his starts this season and he is getting barely six strikeouts per nine innings as he isn't close to the pitcher he was a few years ago. San Francisco has needed a lot of bullpen innings the past two days and coming off back-to-back wins over the 2015 NL Champions this is a Brewers team playing with confidence despite still being priced as a much lesser squad in the NL picture.
Goodfella
Reds TT Over 4.5
These Reds have been smacking the ball around of late. I do expect them to get to the Braves SP Blair eventually. Then we get into that crappy ATL bullpen. Add on the great weather pattern we have for tonight's game. The temps in the low 90's with a light wind blowing out to RF. We also have the visiting team here, so we are assured of getting 9 innings of at-bats. Bottom line for me here, is that I really like these Reds to plate at least 5 runs in this spot tonight & I am on their Team Total going OVER on Monday evening.
Dave Essler
Tigers / White Sox Over 5.5 1st Half
The problem I have with the full game total is that BOTH bullpens have been pitching VERY well. But, Shields can't pitch in the NL and the Tigers saw him plenty with the Royals. Boyd has allowed 20 home runs in 78 innings in the big league. He'll get there - but all it takes is one pitch with a couple on for the White Sox to get their half here. I may add the Tigers for the game
Bruce Marshall
Detroit -107
Detroit has bypassed the fading Chisox in the AL Central and enters The Cell after a couple of impressive wins over the Yankees. Detroit starter Matt Boyd is improving, off of his best effort of this season last Tuesday vs. the Blue Jays. Cannot back the Pale Hose and combustible starter James Shields, smashed last Wednesday vs. the Nats in his first game since the trade from San Diego, and having allowed 17 runs and 16 hits over 4 2/3 IP in his last two starts.
Brad Wilton
Monday comp play is the Warriors to end it tonight in the NBA.
Sure, Draymond Green is suspended for this one, but the Dubs bench is a proud and deep group, and they will find a way to pick up their suspended teammate tonight in front of the home crowd.
Steph Curry poured in 38-points on Friday night in the Warriors win at Cleveland, and there is a good chance he goes off again tonight.
Golden State was not pressed in either home game played in this series against the Cavaliers, as the Warriors have now won and covered 5 in a row this postseason on their home court, and have covered in 8 of their 10 playoff home games this season.
Cleveland comes up short once again tonight, as Golden State makes it back-to-back NBA Finals titles at the expense of the Cavaliers.
Lay the lumber with the Dubs!
5* GOLDEN STATE
Scott Delaney
Here is your preview of the National League Championship Series, as the favorites to represent the senior circuit in the Fall Classic meet in the nation's capital. And for openers, I have to side with the Nataionals, as they're going to want to end this homestand on a winning note, before heading off to their upcoming west coast trip, which begins Thursday with a game in San Diego.
The Nationals have won six of the last seven and come in a season-high 15 games over .500. They also come in with revenge on the brain, as the teams met May 5-8 in the Windy City, where the Cubs won all four games by a combined score of 22-16.
Tonight's starter for Washington, Max Scherzer, got the loss May 6 by a score of 8-6, and he was hit hard. I'm not listing pitchers, but you better believe Mad Max will be out for revenge in this one.
And since Washington got its first home sweep since late April with three wins over the Phillies this weekend, it'll be fired up for the Cubbies' arrival, especially since Chicago's 43-18 record is the best mark in the majors.
2* NATIONALS
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is Indians to continue their torrid June as they down the Royals once again.
The Indians opened the month with a 4 game home field sweep of the Royals, as the Tribe outscored KC, 25-6 in that impressive sweep.
Overall, Cleveland has won 9 of their last 12 games, while Kansas City is on a 2-8 nose-dive over their last 10 contests.
Tonight we have Carlos Carrasco and Edison Volquez starting, and while they didn't face one another in that early June series, Carrasco was on the hill in a no-decision to open the series, and is 6-4 for his career against the Royals.
Volquez took the loss a night later against the Indians, allowing 5 runs on 7 hits, along with 4 walks in his 6-plus innings worked.
Ride the Indians to keep things rolling strong in the series opener.
3* CLEVELAND
Chris Jordan
The Kansas City Royals recently completed a 6-0 homestand and moved into first place in the American League Central. Since then, they've tanked, suffered from a season-worst eight-game losing streak, including four-game sweep dealt by the Cleveland Indians, who outscored the defending World Series champs by a 27-6 margin.
The Royals went from two games up to trailing the Indians by three.
Now Kansas City, back at home, will return the favor and go back on a winning streak. I know the Indians have won six of seven against the Royals this year, but all the games have been played in Cleveland. The Royals, you see, are 19-7 at home.
And I'm not sold on any of these teams in the Central, not yet, and think any team is capable of winning at any given time. The Royals have been the streakiest of them all, and this is a good time to expect another winning streak.
Take the champs in this one.
2* ROYALS
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 67-60 run with free picks: Texas (+115) at OAKLAND
The STORYLINE in this game today - My free play for tonight is on the Texas Rangers, on the road against the Oakland Athletics, and in this one I want you listing the scheduled starters. I can't be too worried about this one in Oaktown, when everyone will be focused on the Golden State Warriors across the way at Oracle Arena. Thus, Texas starter Cesar Ramos will thrive here.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game -The key is the pitching mismatch, as Ramos replaces Yu Darvish, who was scratched because of tightness in his neck and shoulder. This will be the left-hander's first start since May 21. Ramos is 1-1 with a 2.76 ERA in three starts.
BOTTOM LINE is - Ramos will pitch much better than Oakland's Sean Manaea, who may have gone at least six innings in all of his starts, but he's also posted a 4.18 ERA and will run into trouble against the A.L. West division leading Rangers.
3* TEXAS
Aaron Toller
Arizona -151
Free play for Monday baseball is on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Zach Greinke at home against his old team seems to have found his form and pitching much better than he was to start the year. Arizona is also swinging a hot bat which is a good thing when you have a pitcher like Greinke capable of shutting down the opposition.