Free Picks for Monday, March 20th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
KINGS VS. OILERS
PLAY: OILERS -135
These are now must games for the Kings. They are in dire straits to make the playoffs. But must win doesn’t always translate into will win, and that was certainly the case on Sunday evening as LA was defeated at Calgary.
There’s still talent on the Kings, but they’re an aging team and it’s becoming readily apparent that this is likely the end of their era. I think the players know it and while it’s not like they’re going through the motions, the Kings are simply not very good right now. LA was able to garner only 9 of a possible 14 points on their recent home stand, and while they aren’t dead for the post season, the Kings are now close to life support.
The game means as much if not more to the Oilers. Edmonton is in great shape for a wild card, but they still have a real shot to win the division and improve their position for the playoffs. The Kings will try to turn this into a grind, while the Oilers would love to play it wide open. Edmonton can win either style, I don’t believe the Kings can, however, as they’re simply not good at all when things speed up. It’s in the price, but I feel Edmonton is the side tonight and I’ll therefore go ahead and lay the money line with the Oilers.
Alex Smart
George Washington vs. Illinois-Chicago
Play: Illinois-Chicago +6
George Washington after winning the NIT in their last campaign may feel a little letdown playing in a lower tier CBI Tournament this season. With that said, I'm betting the Colonial's lack of exuberance will be a hindrance to them in this spot. Meanwhile, Illinois Chicago looks to be on a roll, of late, as was evident when taking out a very good Wis Green Bay program by a 79-70 count in the Horizon League Tournament, and than opening the CBI with 71-69 victory over Stoney Brook. The Flames overall record may not inspire bettors, but Im betting on the energy created by a home court advantage and a chance at upsetting a upper tier team to be a huge motivating factor in the upstart Flames cover tonight.
UIC 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. George Washington is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.IL-CHICAGO is 28-13 ATS L/41 in March games .GEORGE WASHINGTON is 3-12 ATS after having won 8 or more of their last 10 games.IL-CHICAGO is 10-3 ATS when the total is 150 to 159.5 this season.
Rob Vinciletti
George Washington vs. Illinois-Chicago
Play: Illinois-Chicago +6
The Flames are taking 6 points and While they are under .500 CBI Home dogs are on a solid 14-2 spread run. George Washington has failed to cover 9 of 13 as a favorite and 0-4 to the spread in their last 4 tournament games. Chicago has covered 10 of 13 in games where the total is 150 to 160, 10 of 12 as a dog from +1 to +6.5 and the last 4 non conference games. Look for them to hang around for the cover.
Info Plays
76ers / Magic Over 210½
I'm taking the Magic OVER tonight. I have a few systems supporting our pick. Play the over when the total is greater than or equal to 200 when one of the teams is revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points and is a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record. This system is 52-28 (65%) over the last 5 seasons.
Art Aronson
Warriors vs. Thunder
Play: Thunder +2
This is a triple revenge game for OKC, as Golden State has taken all three previous meetings this season. That was with Kevin Durant in the lineup though (KD would net 39, 40 and 34 points respectively). Russell Westbrook had 47 points in the the most recent loss, a 130-114 home setback last month. After three straight losses, the Warriors have “righted the ship” and reeled off three straight victories. But the Thunder come in red hot as well (5-0 run), averaging 115 points over their last six games. Note that Golden State is just 14-16 ATS this year after three or more consecutive wins, while OKC is 6-1 ATS in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent. Consider the THUNDER on Monday night.
John Ryan
76ers vs. Magic
Play: 76ers +5
5* graded play on the Philadelphia 76ers (601) as they take on in the Orlando Magic in NBA action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the 76ers will win this game by at least 3 points. Given the favorable projections we like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 4* play on the line and a 1* play using the money line. However, the one single requirements is that we need a +135 Money line to validate the ROI for the combination wager. If it is not at +135, then simply make a 5* wager using the line.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points
The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.
Here is a system that has gone 62-26 ATS good for 71% winners since 2011. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ORLANDO) off a road win, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season.
Other Fundamental and Technical Discussion Points
If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the 76ers.
76ers have won five straight ATS and have had a much better season than in any of the last five seasons. Orlando is playing horrid defense allowing better than 50% shooting to 4 of their last 5 opponents. 76ers have a great coach in Brett Brown, who teaches and leads with his team showing up every night to play their best.
Marc Lawrence
Philadelphia at Orlando
Play: Orlando -5
Edges - Magic: 24-7 SU and 21-9-1 ATS in this series, including 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS following a win… 76ers: 2-5 ATS without rest following a win this season, including 0-2 ATS off consecutive wins. With the Magic looking to avenge a 1-point home loss suffered here against the Sixers in February, and Philadelphia just 43-57 ATS in its last 100 games following two-wins exact when facing an avenging foe, we recommend a 1* ply on Orlando.
Frank Jordan
Utah Jazz vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Utah Jazz -2
Utah has dropped their last two games, but are 6-4 in their last 10 and locked into the 4th seed at 43-27. Utah is 20-15 on the road and 18-9 against the East. Indiana is the 6th seed in the East with a 35-34 record. At home Indiana is 24-10, but over all are coming off a loss, 5-5 in their last 10 games and against the West Indiana is 15-11. Utah has dropped the last two games to Cleveland and Chicago and needs to get back their winning ways with LA Clippers only a couple of games back. Look for Utah to get a big game from Hayward as he puts the team on his back leading them to 104-99 Jazz road win.
Power Sports
Philadelphia at Orlando
Pick: Philadelphia +5
In what world (other than Shaquille O'Neal's!) is Orlando a five-point favorite over ANYONE? The oddsmakers clearly have not learned their lesson from the last time these teams met when Philadelphia came here (as a 6.5-pt dog) and won outright 112-111. The Sixers are the league's best ATS team (44-24) and that includes six straight covers. They look like a really great value here.
Maybe its because Philly played yesterday that we're able to get such a good number? They beat Boston, 105-99, as five-point home dogs. Granted, there was no Isaiah Thomas for the Celtics, but that's still a pretty impressive win. As was Friday's 42-point thumping of the Mavs. Overall, this team is 15-3 ATS its last 18 games.
Orlando is off a rare win as they won in Phoenix Friday night. That result actually does them no favors though as they are an awful 1-14 straight up off an outright win as a dog this season. Even worse, they are 3-11 ATS when favored. I'm not saying the Sixers should be favored tonight (they're 0-2 ATS as chalk this season), but the number is way too high. The road team has won all three meetings this year when these teams hook up.
Larry Ness
Washington vs. Boston
Pick: Washington
The 42-27 Washington Wizards will play at TD Garden tonight against the 44-26 Boston Celtics. The Celtics enter this contest 1 1/2 games up on the Wizards for the No. 2 seed in the East and know a win means a 2 1/2 game lead and a loss means it's down to a half-game lead, as both teams chase the top-seeded Cavs. The teams have engaged in some heated matchups this season, with the home team winning each of the first three.
The Celtics blew a 13-point lead Sunday in Philly, falling 105-99 to the 76ers. Boston was playing its second straight game without All-Star guard Isaiah Thomas (29.2-6.0 APG), who is hoping his knee is good enough for him to return for this one. The Celtics were on the brink of tying an NBA record when they visited Brooklyn on Friday night, as they had 26 straight games with at least 10 three-pointers, one shy of the mark set by the Houston Rockets earlier this season. However, without Thomas, they were 7 of 29 Friday to end the streak Boston was then 6 of 29 from behind the arc on Sunday, for a combined 13 of 58 in the past two games (22.4%) playing without Thomas.
Washington had gone 25-6 from Jan 3 through Mar 11 but enter this game having lost three of four. PG John Wall has had two straight poor outings (9 of 29 shooting), since suffering a foot injury Wednesday against Dallas. Markieff Morris (14.1-6.7), who had 19 points and 11 rebounds in the previous meeting with Boston, has missed the last two games due to illness and is day-to-day. The Wizards' entire starting-five averages in double digits and the team's trade deadline pickup of Bogdanivic (15.4 PPG in 14 games with Washington) has been huge.
The Celtics have been able to use their preferred starting-five just 28 times this season, going 21-7 (.750) but with a variation of that lineup they are a more modest 23-19 (.545). No guarantee Thomas plays tonight and I'll take the Wizards.
Jim Feist
Akron vs Texas Arlington
Pick: Under
Akron heads out on the road to Texas and the Zips are 10-4 under the total after a spread cover. Texas-Arlington hosts the second round of the National Invitation Tournament. Senior starting guard Jalen Jones out for the postseason due to a hand injury. Texas-Arlington is 9-2 under the total in non-conference games. The team is not 100%: Senior forward Jorge Bilbao is expected to be closer to full strength against the Zips. He has been suffering from illness for the past few weeks and has received IV treatment to assist with dehydration. At BYU, Bilbao was unable to participate in pregame practices and played at well less than 100 percent.
Buster Sports
Warriors at Thunder
Play: Over 222
We know Kevin Durant will not play tonight but this total seems a little low for us as we had it at 227. This year the oddsmaker has had the total for the last two games at 231 and 226 respectively. So there is tons of value here even with Durant not playing. In fact we believe that the Warriors who have been on a bit of a funk lately will want to come out firing and try and put a beating on Durant's old club. OKC does have the revenge factor going as they have lost all 3 match ups this year so they will want to lite it up for the home crowd and beat the hated Warriors. The reason that this is not a premium play for us is the fact that Golden St. has gone 11-1 to the UNDER in their last 12 games. Our numbers and system have this game OVER so we will be the contrarian here and go against the trend.
Cal Sports
Utah Valley at Rice
Play: Under 163.5
This is an actual 3% for all my All-Access customers. Both teams love to push the pace which is obvious with this high total. However, we’re going containing as the teams should be a bit out of sync as this is Rice’s second game in 11 days and Utah Valley’s second game in 10 days. Utah Valley hasn’t topped this total in their last 9 games and they have held 3 of their last 4 foes to 54 points or less.
Ray Monohan
San Jose / Dallas Over 5.5
The Sharks and Stars clash and the Over here is worth a move. The Stars have been a solid Over bet this year because of how quick they play. Dallas is one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL, as they give up 3.27 goals per game.
Look for San Jose to really take advantage of the counter attack here and get plenty of chances on goal.
Some trends to note. Over is 14-2 in Stars last 16 home games. Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Dallas, and the Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these two. The value sits with Over here.
Both teams will have a lot chances on net here.