Brandon Lee
CS Bakersfield vs. Colorado St
Play: CS Bakersfield +4.5
The Roadrunners went on the road and knocked off Cal 73-66 in the opening round of the NIT and I look for them to keep it going against Colorado State. CS Bakersfield win over the Golden Bears was no fluke. The Roadrunners only lost by 12 at Arizona and by a mere 6-points at SMU in non-conference play. The Rams held on to beat College of Charleston in their opener 81-74, but I just haven't been that impressed with this team when I have watched them play. Note that these two teams have played 3 games against common opponents and CS-Bakersfield had a +3.0 scoring margin, while Colorado State was -0.7.
Andrew Gold
Pacers +2½
We are going to back the Pacers here who are looking for a big bounce back after losing last night @ Raptors. They should be hungry here and this is actually a situation where it has favored Indiana as of late. Pacers are 5-1 ATS L6 games following a SU loss. Pacers are 5-0 ATS L5 games after allowing 100 points or more in previous game.
Jazz are in a rough spot here playing their 4th game in 6 days with travel every day. They are also pretty comfortable right now in the 4th or 5th spot in the West. Jazz just 5-11 ATS L16 games following a SU loss
Teddy Davis
Hawks vs. Hornets
Play: Hornets -5½
The Hawks are really starting to fall off right now losing 3 straight games and are just 2-8 ATS their last 10. The Hornets haven't gave up on the season yet as that was evident last game beating the Wizards. Tonight the Hawks will be without Milsap who is a key piece for their team on both sides of the ball. If the Hornets want any chance of making the playoffs they need a big push with all these home games coming up. I think this is a team we can back here for a while with their favorable schedule.
Jimmy Boyd
Hornets -5½
I like the value here with Charlotte at home against the Hawks tonight. The Hornets are in desperation mode, as they 3.5-games out of the 8th and final spot in the east with just 13 to play. Atlanta is in a much more comfortable spot (5th) and I look for them to struggle to match the intensity of Charlotte here, especially with the Hawks minus starter Paul Millsap and key reserve Kent Bazemore.
It's also worth pointing out the Hornets have won 4 of the last 5 at home in this series and are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against division opponents. Hawks are a mere 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 5-16 ATS in their last 21 against a division opponent and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss.
Jack Jones
Philadelphia 76ers +5
The Philadelphia 76ers continue to get no respect from the books here as 5-point road underdogs to the Orlando Magic. All they've done is go 6-0 ATS in their last six games, including 29-9 ATS in their last 37 games overall.
The Orlando Magic haven't shown a ton of fight here down the stretch. They are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games, which includes a 30-point loss at Golden State and a 40-point loss at Charlotte.
This is a tough situation for the Magic as they return home following a three-game road trip out West. That first game back home is almost always a good time to fade teams off an extended road trip.
Orlando is 3-11 ATS as a favorite this season. The 76ers are 22-5 ATS in their last 27 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The Magic are 9-22-1 ATS in their last 32 home games. The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.
SPORTS WAGERS
DETROIT -½ +116 over Buffalo
Regulation only. The Red Wings are rarely favored in this range (-150 or thereabouts). In fact, the Red Wings have been priced higher than they are today only three other times this entire season and the first two times came early in the year when the market was not aware how bad they were. The other time came in its last game against the Avalanche in a game Detroit would end up winning, 5-1. Detroit is playing out the string against another team playing out the string but what sticks out more is the large premium one must pay to back a weak team. Under normal circumstances, we would scoop up this enticing price on the Sabres but the odds makers saw something to warrant making Detroit such a big price, which prompted us to delve a little deeper and the following is what we uncovered.
Buffalo returns to the East Coast after three games on the West Coast. They scored three goals in their three games out west and allowed 41, 36 and 40 shots on net respectively. The final scores on paper (4-1 to San Jose, 2-1 victory over Anaheim and a 2-0 loss to the Kings) do not look bad but the performances were. The Sabres were fortunate they didn’t lose by three or more goals each game because that’s how badly they were outplayed. Now the Sabres must return back to the East Coast with no chance of making the playoffs. Not only do they have to return from sunny California, but they have to go to Detroit, a city that gets 15 tourists a year and where you can buy a house for $4000.00. One really has to question what will motivate the Sabres to play this game in late March against a team not going to the playoffs. Furthermore, the Sabres will officially return home tomorrow when they face the defending Champs, Pittsburgh Penguins at KeyBank Center. As far as situational plays go, we cannot imagine a more uninspiring and un-motivating situation for the Sabres than this one and it is for that reason that we’ll bet they show up in body only and lose easily.
Los Angeles +115 over EDMONTON
OT included. We are in the buy-low, sell high business and therefore we must apply that to this game. Edmonton’s stock is soaring after three straight wins by scores of 7-1, 7-4, and 2-0 over Dallas, Boston and Vancouver, respectively. Meanwhile, L.A. played last night and lost 5-2 in Calgary. The Kings have now lost three of its last four games with only victory over that span occurring against Buffalo. To make it worse, this is the time of year in when every point is crucial and the Kings have managed to pick up three out of a possible eight points over their last four games. Yes indeed, the Kings stock is low and the Oilers stock is high but not everything is as it appears.
Los Angeles has allowed 19, 21, 23, 26, 24 and 26 shots on net in six of its last seven games while averaging close to 40 shots of their own over that span. They are dominating puck possession numbers almost every game but poor luck and some weak goaltending of their own is costing them. Prior to the past four games, the Kings defeated Washington and Nashville in succession. This is now the Kings last hurrah. A loss here combined with a Predators win (Nashville is at home to Arizona tonight), and the Kings season is over. They figure to play this one like it’s the seventh game of a playoff series and that gets our attention.
Edmonton will play its eighth straight game at home here. We cannot over-emphasize how rare that is during the course of a season and how detrimental it can be too. The Oilers are coming off a game against a depleted Canucks’ team and mustered a mere 22 shots on net in a undeserving 2-0 victory. The Oil head to out to California for a game against Anaheim on Wednesday and we can assure you that they cannot wait to get on that plane after being home for the entire month of March so far. The Oilers should have lost to Vancouver last game. During this home-stand, they already lost to the Islanders, Montreal and Pittsburgh so it’s not like they’re running over teams. The Oilers have scored 16 goals over their last three games on 85 shots on net, which is a abnormally high shooting percentage that is bound to regress. Combine all the above to give us a very decent situational play on a very live dog.
SPORTS WAGERS
UCF +176 over ILLINOIS ST
Count the Illinois State Redbirds among the schools that feel they were shunned by the NCAA's selection committee. After a 28-6 regular season, including a 17-1 conference record, the Redbirds were unable to take care of business in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. The Valley was a two-horse race this season between Wichita State and these Redbirds, with Illinois State taking the top seed on the second tie-breaker, which is RPI ranking after those two teams split their two regular season contests. When they inevitably met in the final, the Shockers left no doubt who was king, as they wiped the floor with the Redbirds, 71-51, thus busting Illinois State's bubble in the process. The Redbirds are a #1 seed in this NIT event and they took care of business in round one with an 85-71 win over UC Irvine. A win and cover after the disappointment of missing out on the NCAA Tournament might look nice but the Big West might be the worst conference in Division I basketball so State’s win over UC Irvine was highly expected. While the Redbirds might have been disappointed with their "snub", a closer look at their résumé shows they aren't a tournament team after playing just the 150th toughest schedule in the nation. As the #1 seed playing at home no less, the Redbirds are overpriced here to be sure.
The UCF Knights had never won a postseason game until their 79-74 victory over Colorado in the first round of this tournament. We promise you that Colorado is a legit Division I team that is superior to many teams that were in the starting field of 68 this season. That win over the Buffs was an inspiring one for the players and the program and it figures to have this dangerous intruder all jacked up to get back on the floor. UCF finished the year strong by winning its last six games before falling to SMU in the semis of the AAC Tournament. It would have been easy for the Knights to roll over to a major conference team like Colorado in the first round of the NIT, but that was not the case. The Knights are holding their opposition to just 36.4% shooting, which is good for tops in the entire nation. In that win over the Buffaloes, the Knights held Colorado to under 25% from 3-point range. This game will be huge for Knights senior forward Nick Banyard, who graduated from Illinois State and spent two seasons playing for the Redbirds. While he wasn't much of an impact player for the Redbirds, Banyard has been an integral part of the Knights by grabbing six boards a game and shooting 48.4% from downtown.
At one time the National Invitational Tournament was the Main Event. Since the 1970's, March Madness has spread like wildfire and now the NIT is nothing more than a consolation prize for the school's that did not make it to The Big Dance. The field is a mix of disappointing majors, bubble teams, and programs from one-bid conferences that did not win their tournaments. Mindset plays a role because there is also a mix of teams who are thrilled to still be playing while others are disappointed and would rather be elsewhere. While the Redbirds are doing and saying all the right things, it had to eat them up while they watched Wichita State go toe to toe with a #1 seed like Kentucky and not think they should be there. It might be hard to look across the floor at the UCF Knights and not be disappointed. Aside from that, we get the better team that has already proved that they are here on business. The Knights outright gets this call,
Will Rogers
Los Angeles vs. Edmonton
Pick: Edmonton
The set-up: The 34-30-7 LA Kings lost 5-2 in Calgary last night, after completing a seven-game homestand 4-2-1. The loss leaves the Kings six points behind Nashville for the second wild card spot in the West. Meanwhile, the Oilers beat the Canucks 2-0 at home on Saturday and will host the Kings tonight, as they wrap up an eight-game homestand in which the team has gone 4-2-1 at Rogers Place.
LA Kings: The Kings won a pair of Stanley Cups (2012 & 2014) and have been a perennial contender for much of the past decade. However, they are currently below the playoff cut line and if they miss the playoffs, there certainly would be speculation that an aging group may have reached the end of the line. The Kings have just 11 games left on the schedule but three of them are against the Oilers. So, how the Kings do against the Oilers will have a major bearing on if they gets back to the post-season or not.
Edmonton: The Oilers enter on a three-game winning streak after that 2-0 win on Saturday. Edmonton currently owns the first wild-card spot in the Western Conference but is only six points behind San Jose for first place in the Pacific Division. With a victory Monday, Edmonton can leap past both Calgary and Anaheim and move into second place in the Pacific.
The pick: The Oilers can 'sniff' ending their 10-season playoff drought and have outscored opponents 16-5 during their current three-game winning streak. I say Edmonton makes it four straight wins, here!
Wunderdog
Denver @ Houston
Pick: Denver +9
These teams just played a close one the last game, 109-105. Houston is great shape to have the third seed in the West, but Denver is in a tight battle for playoff positioning. Denver is third in the NBA in points scored. The Nuggets occupy the eighth spot with the Blazers just 1.5 games back. Denver has won four of the last five games, off the loss to Houston as budding star Nikola Jokic was limited to 22 minutes by foul trouble. The Nuggets are 12-5 ATS when playing on one day of rest. Houston is home but the Rockets are 4-10 ATS following a spread cover.
Paul Bovi
Wizards at Celtics
Play: Wizards +3
Feeling here is that Wash has the better team and they have won 2 of the last 3 meetings this year after a blowout in Game 1. Both of those games saw the Wizards in the 2nd of a back to back and in the loss they collapsed late with fatigue possibly playing a role. Short number here but like the Wizards to get the win.
Chris Jordan
I'm playing another total tonight, as my comp winner, this one an Over, as I like the matchup between Cal Bakersfield and Colorado State to go high.
This Cal Bakersfield team is a scrappy bunch, and I don't think anyone realizes just how capable this team is. The Roadrunners made a run during the Western Athletic Conference tournament, even surviving a four-overtime game. Then in the opening round of this event, they knocked off Cal, at Berkeley.
To have to travel to Fort Collins for this game, it won't be anything threatening. The Colorado State Rams are a good teaam, and it should win, but the Roadrunners are not to be intimidated.
And since the Rams have allowed more than 71 points per game in their last five contests, I'm thinking they're going to have their hands full tonight, in what could be a shootout.
Colorado State has scored at least 71 in its last six gaames, averaging 75.7 points per game in that span. The Rams will most certainly be off and running for this game.
I like both teams to get into the 70s here, and this one to be over with plenty of time to spare.
1* Cal Bakersfield/Colorado St. Over
Eric Schroeder
After losing with Iowa as my free play last night, I step into the CBI and look to get a win with Coastal Carolina minus the points against Loyola-Maryland.
The Chanticleers, who are on a 10-1 run against the books, are going to take advantage of a Loyola-Maryland team that has to be wondering what it's doing in this position, at this point.
While the Greyhounds have won two of their last three, they've lost six of nine and now have to travel for the third time since the start of the month. That's not a lot, considering we're 20 days into the month, but we're talking about the conference tournament, then to George Mason and now to Coastal Carolina.
And away from home, Loyola-Maryland has lost 12 of 18. This one could be trouble. Take the home team.
3* COASTAL CAROLINA
Jack Brayman
My free play for Monday is on the George Washington Colonials, laying the easy number against Illinois-Chicago in the CBI quarterfinals.
GW is looking to win a second consecutive postseason championship after capturing the NIT title last year. It was the first postseason championship in program history, and now the Colonials are hoping for another.
Led by Tyler Cavanaugh - who played his best basketball of the season in the NIT run last year, averaging 19.4 points on .493 shooting with 9.0 rebounds - the Colonials have looked competitive. He 29 points on 10-of-15 shooting including 5-of-8 from three, while also adding seven boards, a block, steal and assist in a first round win over Toledo.
Cavanaugh has reached the 20-point plateau in six of the last seven games and over the last 15 games, is averaging 21.1 points and 9.6 rebounds. He has 16 20-point games and 12 double-doubles, and in his GW career has scored in double figures in 69 of 72 games.
Look for him to lead the Colonials to a win tonight.
3* GEORGE WASHINGTON
Brad Wilton
Monday night comp play is the Oilers over the Kings.
Los Angeles was on the wrong side of last night's 5-2 final score in Calgary, and it gets no easier tonight as they head to Edmonton for a stop against the surging Oilers.
Edmonton has won 3 straight and 5 of their last 7, and they did have last night off to get ready for this showdown with a Los Angeles team that is going the wrong way with losses in 3 of their last 4, and 10 of 16 overall.
The Oilers stopped a 6-game series losing streak the last time these teams faced one another at the end of December, and I like them to make it 2 in a row in their favor with the win tonight over a tired Kings team.
3* EDMONTON
John Martin
Charlotte Hornets -5.5
The Atlanta Hawks have been struggling, going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. They just lost by 16 at home to Portland on Saturday against a Blazers team that was playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. Making matters worse for the Hawks is that they'll be without their best player in Paul Millsap tonight due to injury. Kent Bazemore is out as well. The Hornets will only be playing their 2nd game in 5 days and are off a 98-93 home win over the Wizards on Saturday. The Hawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The home team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Hawks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Charlotte.