Sleepyj
Morehead St. -5.5
My number for this game was -8....So I'll grab them here at this number...This number has been on the rise and I agree with the money move here with Morehead...These teams IMO don't matchup very well and the guard play for Morehead is by far much better IMO..I think the season for Duquesne ends tonight.
DAVE COKIN
EASTERN WASHINGTON VS NEVADA
PLAY: NEVADA -5
First off, let’s get the injury info on this game out of the way. Eastern Washington’s Venky Jois did something to his knee in the Eastern Washington win against Pepperdine. He has been medically cleared to play tonight, although head coach Jim Hayford is saying Jois will be a game time decision. I’d be pretty surprised if he sits the game out.
Nevada will get Marqueze Coleman back tonight. He has logged only 21 minutes in the last six Wolf Pack games, and head coach Eric Musselman is saying he’s not sure how much time Coleman will be able to spend on the court tonight. But the fact the senior star will be on the floor has to be regarded as a plus for Nevada.
The matchup is interesting as even though these teams have not met, I believe Nevada will be very familiar with what they’ll see from the Eagles tonight. Musselman compared them to Boise State, although I actually think Eastern Washington more resembles Colorado State. Like the Rams, the Eagles will be shooting three-balls on a very regular basis, and Nevada is going to have to do a better job with this opponent than they did with the Rams. I’m wondering if Musselman brought up Boise State because his troops lost twice to the Broncos. Kind of makes sense from a motivational standpoint.
This game will not be a sellout, not by a long shot. It’s spring break and it’s the CIT. Or is this the CBI? I honestly don’t know or care on that count. What it’s not is the NCAA or the NIT and this tournament doesn’t have any real pizzazz. But the Wolf Pack did draw a pretty good crowd for the Montana game, and those who showed up were highly energized, so I went ahead and awarded Nevada its full home court advantage when doing the math for this contest.
I can see where there’s a bit of value on the Nevada side here. I thought this would come a shade higher based on where the number was vs. Montana, and then adding in the return of Coleman and what is apparently less than 100% of Venky Jois. At the current tag, I’ll therefore look to Nevada to garner the win and cover tonight.
Ben Burns
Bucks vs. Pistons
Play: Bucks +7½
We're getting a little extra line value with the visiting Bucks here, due to the fact that they played yesterday. However, the Bucks have actually played some of their best basketball recently, when playing the second of back-to-back games.
The last time that the Bucks played the second of b2b games, they won 109-100 at Brooklyn. You may be thinking, 'thats great, but the Nets are pretty bad.' True, however, the Bucks also won (117-109) at Atlanta, last month, when playing the second of b2b games. In fact, even their early season upset of the Warriors occurred when the Bucks were playing their second game in two days. Overall, they're 11-6 ATS in that situation this season.
As of this writing, the O/U line is 205.5 at most shops. That's noteworthy as the Pistons are just 2-5 SU/ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range. Meanwhile, the Bucks are 4-1 ATS on the road, when the O/U line fell in the same range. Going back further finds Milwaukee at a profitable 11-2 ATS the last 13 times it played a road game with an O/U line ranging from 205 to 209.5.
While the Pistons beat up on Brooklyn on Saturday, they're just 7-10-1 ATS (7-11 SU) off a double-digit win. Only three of their 10 March games have resulted in a victory by more than seven. Consider taking the points.
Rob Vinciletti
Philadelphia at Indiana
Play: Indiana -15½
The Pacers may win this one by a land slide here tonight and they already beat the Sixers by 27 on the road. The Pacers are 4-1 ats off 3+ home games and have covered 6 of 8 as a home favorite from 12 to 16. The Sixers were beat big at home last night and have failed to cover 4 of 5 on the road if the total is 205 to 210. Home favorites of 10 or more off a home dog spread loss that scored 100 or more are perfect to the spread vs an opponent that was a home dg of 5 or more like Philly long term. Look for the pacers to plaster the Sixers tonight.
Scott Spreitzer
Sacramento at Chicago
Play: Chicago -6½
We backed the Kings last night and cashed the ticket when they beat New York, 88-80. But the winning streak ends at one for the Kings in our opinion. Chicago will look to pick up their third straight home win and cover after beating Utah and Brooklyn. Doug McDermott is making the most of his playing time, scoring 29, 20, and 25 points in three previous games before the win over Utah. McDermott should add plenty to the Bulls' ledger in this particular matchup. But it's on the defensive end where I like the Bulls the most tonight. Chicago ranks in the top six in FG percentage allowed and in 3-point defense and we know if you frustrate the Kings on their offensive end, they generally fold on the defensive end. We liked the matchups last night for Sacto, but it was just their third win in their last 14 games. We don't like their situation or matchups tonight. And we should note that if Pau Gasol is sidelined again, we're confident Taj Gibson will continue to shine in his absence. The Kings are 1-4 ATS when playing in their second of back-to-back games and they're 1-10 ATS against teams with a winning record.
Mike Lundin
Bucks vs. Pistons
Play: Pistons -7
This looks like a good spot to back the Detroit Pistons as they host the Milwaukee Bucks Monday night. Milwaukee has lost two of its last three and struggled in a 94-85 loss to the Jazz yesterday.
"This game was a very plain yogurt-type situation that had no flavor, no excitement," Milwaukee coach Jason Kidd told reporters. "There was no juice." Will the team do any better on the tail-end of a back-to-back? I doubt it.
The Pistons opened a nine-game homestand with a loss against Atlanta but is coming off a pair of wins against Sacramento and Brooklyn. They're 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Detroit is tied with Chicago for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and can't afford to throw away games like this.
Ricky Tran
Spurs vs. Hornets
Play: Spurs -6
San Antonio put up a really solid performance when it recorded an 87-79 victory against the Warriors Saturday. It has won 10 straight meetings with Charlotte, is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 matchups, and posted a 114-94 home win over the Hornets on Nov. 7. The Hornets are off a 101-93 loss to Denver Saturday and only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. LaMarcus Aldridge had 26 points and 13 rebounds Saturday and he has averaged 24.2 points over his last 10 games. The Hornets can't match up against the Spurs on either end of the court.
Marc Lawrence
Washington vs. San Diego State
Play: San Diego State -5
Edges - Aztecs: 19-3 SU and 11-6-1 ATS versus .642 or less opponents this season; and 10-4-1 ATS off a win versus Pac-12 foes. Huskies: 14-3 SU versus .642 or less opponents this season, but 5-11 SU versus better; and NIT 2nd round teams who scored more than 103 points in opening round games are 1-3-1 ATS since 2000. With the Aztecs looking to advantage a 49-36 loss as 1.-5-point favorites at Washington last season, we recommend a 1* play on San Diego State.
Brad Diamond
San Antonio at Charlotte
Play: Charlotte: +6
Charlotte (39-30) and San Antonio (59-10) plucked an off day out of the zany NBA scheduling format. Now, the Spurs visit North Carolina after dismantling the Warriors on Saturday holding them to just 79 points, still amazing even with the injuries for Golden State. And, that win could take some tenaciousness from the Spurs, especially their "mental" approach in the first-half of action. SA shows 1-5 ATS off just one day of rest and has had ATS problems facing Eastern Conference foes. The Spurs do continue to be undefeated at home, 24-10 SU on the road. The Hornets have won 8-of-10 SU, after losing last time out. Charlotte is 26-11 SU at home, and plays with revenge this evening. In the last meeting back in 2015, the Spurs shot 55.6% from the field winning in blowout fashion 114-94, taking the second-half 63-47. Opposing Charlotte has played well overall against winning units covering 8-of-11. For our money, the Hornets have a great chance to win and cover this evening.
Bob Harvey
Memphis at Phoenix
Play: Memphis -127
The Phoenix Suns go for their third straight victory over the Memphis Grizzlies when the two clubs meet tonight in the Valley of the Sun. Tip-off is slated for 10 PM ET at Talking Stick Resort Arena where Memphis is favored by -2 with the total at 204.5. Phoenix had lost 28 of 30 games before beating the Grizzlies 111-106 on February 27. Eight nights later they followed up with a 109-100 victory in Memphis.
The Grizzlies (40-30, 37-32 ATS) received a lift from on Saturday when Zach Randolph returned from a knee injury and contributed a season-best 28 points, 11 rebounds and a career-high 10 assists for the first triple-double of his career in a 113-102 victory over the Los Angeles Clippers. Randolph's big night helped Memphis to break a four-game losing streak.
The Suns (19-50, 28-41 ATS) are 5-6 SU beginning with the first win over Memphis and recorded a 95-90 road victory over the Los Angeles Lakers on Friday. Brandon Knight scored 22 points against the Lakers and has been in double digits in four of five games since returning from a sports hernia injury.
The Grizzlies are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings but a spiffy 6-2 ATS last eight vs. the Western Conference. They’re also 17-8 ATS last 25 overall.
The Suns are 4-1 vs. the number in their last five against the NBA Southwest and 5-2 last seven ATS against the Western Conference.
The OVER is 17-5 in Memphis’ last 22 against the West and 23-9 in their last 32 overall. Phoenix is 5-1 to the OVER in its last six home games while the UNDER is 4-1 in the Suns last five overall. The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 series meetings in Phoenix.
Will Rogers
Duquesne vs. Morehead St
Play: Under 152½
The Morehead State Eagles will host the Duquesne Dukes in the CBI Tournament on Monday, and the Eagles are on a roll. Morehead State has won eight of their last ten overall, and they are coming off a big road win at Siena. The Dukes though are struggling, coming in as losers of eight of their last 10. The total for tonight's game looks a little inflated, and
I think the value is on a play on the under.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History - While the Dukes struggled to compete within their own conference this season, they've been a good bet in non-conference games. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games, and they've failed to reach the total in seven of their last 10 versus non-conference opponents.
2. Let Down Spot - The Dukes scored a whopping 120 points in a shootout win over Omaha in their last game, but I expect them to have a much tougher time here against a Morehead State team that can really play defense. Opponents are scoring just 64.1 points per game on 40.5 percent shooting at Morehead, and the Eagles are 12-2 at home.
3. X-Factor - The Dukes have won just four of 11 road games this season, and they are shooting just 43.1 percent from the field away from home.
Cajun Sports
Spurs vs. Hornets
Play: Over 199.5
This match up features several key NBA Total Systems that are all active for this contest. We will provide a few of them here. Play OVER NBA non-conference underdogs who are coming off a SU loss as a home favorite and the game went Under the posted total. This system has a record of 41-17 Over including a record of 22-4 Over if our Underdog is playing on their home floor. If our home underdog also failed to cover in their last game the system’s record is 29-8 Over.
Jesse Schule
Memphis vs. Phoenix
Pick: Memphis
The Memphis Grizzlies are just 3.5 games back of the Clippers who are in fourth in the Western Conference. They are coming off a 113-102 home win over the Clippers on Saturday, ending a four game losing streak. While they've been ravaged by injuries, they got a big boost with the return of Zach Randolph. The veteran made his mark in his first game back after missing the previous seven games with a knee injury. He scored 28 points, 11 boards and 10 assists, picking up his first career triple-double.
The Grizz are in Phoenix tonight, and they have plenty to play for as they jockey for playoff position. The Suns on the other hand don't have anything to play for, in fact their draft position improves with each loss. The Suns are just 12-22 at home, and they've lost four of their last five home meetings versus Memphis. The Grizzlies have won eight of the last 10 in this series, and they are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games versus teams with a losing record.
Larry Ness
Memphis vs. Phoenix
Pick: Phoenix
The Suns are a PERFECT 3-0 ATS vs the Grizzlies this season...
Memphis has lost Gasol (16.6-7.0) for the season and Conley (15.3-6.1 APG) until a possible return for the postseason. With Randolph (14.9-7.9) also sidelined for seven games with a sore right knee from March 7 through the 17th, the Grizzlies lost FIVE of seven, including FOUR in a row heading into Saturday’s home game with the LA Clippers. However, Randolph returned against the Clippers and carried the Grizzlies to a 113-102 win by delivering his first career triple-double. He finished with 28 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists, making 10-of-19 FGs along with 8-of-8 FTs.
Memphis’ four-game skid included losses on back-to-back days to lowly Minnesota and Milwaukee last week, the latter being Memphis' fourth straight road defeat. Now, after that home win over the Clippers, the Grizzlies are back on the road and will look to put together back-to-back wins for the first time since winning three straight games from Feb 29 through March 4. The good news is the opponent will be the 19-50 Suns. However, the Suns are looking for their THIRD win in four games, something they haven't done since mid-December.
Phoenix will miss the playoffs for the sixth straight season, entering this game tied with Brooklyn for the third-worst record in the league but they aren’t ‘tanking’ in an effort to get a higher draft pick. In fact, the Suns have won two out of their last three games and are 4-4 since March 4. Phoenix's recent stretch of better basketball started with back-to-back wins at Orlando and Memphis from March 4-6. A 109-100 win over the Grizzlies was its second in nine days against Memphis, plus it should be noted that both Conley and Randolph were around for both.
Bottom line is this. Memphis currently has four players on it current roster playing on 10-day contracts AND the Suns are a PERFECT 3-0 ATS vs the Grizzlies this season, including back-to-back SU wins as 6 1/2 and 9 1/2-point underodgs, after Memphis won the season’s first meeting by just TWO points (an easy Phoenix cover). A win means a cover here for the Suns and that’s the bet.
Jim Feist
Golden State at Minnesota
Pick: Golden State
We saw the importance of home court advantage in the West Conference a few nights ago when the Spurs beat the Warriors in San Antonio. Neither club has lost a home game all year and therefore, locking up home court is imperative. The Spurs trail the Warriors by just three games now with these clubs meeting two more times in the remainder of the regular season. The Warriors are hoping there just isn't enough time left, with just 13 games left in their regular season. We'll assume they don't lose at home, that means road games at Minnesota, Utah, Memphis and San Antonio. Minnesota would like nothing more to be one of those clubs to shock the Warriors. The Wolves are just 3-7 S/U their last 10. They have fared better against the spread, going 5-2 ATS their last 7. The Warriors won't be able to rest players exactly like they would want, but they should have little trouble securing home court. I'll take them and lay the price here tonight.