Wunderdog
Duquesne @ Morehead State
Pick: Morehead State -4.5
The Ohio Valley Conference always has some pretty good teams, and amongst them annually is Morehead State. The Eagles have finished their season at .500 or better in eight of the last nine years, and look for win number 20 as they take on Duquense at home in the CBI Tournament. The Eagles played their way through a dreadful 1-6 stretch early on and rallied back to finish 14-5, and are now playing their best basketball of the season having won six straight at home. Duquense, once upon a time, was 10-2 as they played a very soft out of conference schedule, but that caught up to them as they finished at 7-14 in their last 21 games. The big gap here is Morehead State can knock down some 3s, and Duquense is the worst team in basketball defending them, allowing over 40% from beyond the arc on the road. Make the play on Morehead State.
SPORTS WAGERS
Florida +123 over N.Y. RANGERS
OT included. As much as we dislike Roberto Luongo’s play as of late, we have to put our biases aside and stick to playing the value here. Besides, Luongo isn’t in tonight, as the Panthers will turn to Al Montoya here and we much prefer him to Luongo but the market does not. Florida has won four of its last six games. They had the Red Wings on the ropes on Saturday with a two-goal lead but eventually succumbed. In fact, Florida’s only two losses over its past six were both games in which it had a two-goal lead. Over their past seven games, the Panthers have scored four goals or more five times and three goals or more six times. Exactly one week ago, the Cats went into Brooklyn and lost 3-2 to the Islanders but the first period they played that night may have been their best period of the season. They eventually lost that game 3-2 after blowing a 2-0 lead with under six minutes left but the point is they were razor sharp in a Monday night game in New York. This is a similar spot but an even better situational spot, as the Cats catch the Rangers returning home from a three-game California trip.
The last time the Rangers played consecutive home games was way back on Feb. 14 and 17. Tonight marks the 16th straight game in which the Rangers have had to travel to play their next opponent. One has to figure that takes a big toll this late in the season and it sure doesn’t make it easier that New York just played Anaheim, Los Angeles and San Jose in succession. This is without question one of the Rangers most difficult scheduling spots of the season but it goes even deeper than that. The Rangers continue to defy logic. There is a huge correlation between outshooting your opponent and winning hockey games and in that regard, the Rangers should be about 10 games under .500 because they continually get badly outshot. It’s only a matter of time before spending all that time in its own end catches up to them. On Saturday, the Rangers were outshot 52-26. They have been outshot in 13 of their past 14 games and it’s not like they are losing the shots on net battle by a couple of chances. Remember, the goal of every team that has ever played hockey is to create chances and get a good shot on net in an attempt to score but New York has been outshot recently by counts of 38-29, 36-23, 36-19, 34-23, 36-26, 43-25, 37-26 and 52-26 among others. The Rangers W/L record is good because of their unsustainably high shooting percentage but if you bet on the Rangers you will be paying a price to do so because of their misleading record. The Rangers have some very decent players but the parts are far better than the sum. There are not many teams in the league this year that have been dominated as badly as the Rangers have on a nightly basis and again, it’ll catch up to them eventually, especially come playoff time. It’s time to cash in on the Rangers poor play.
Philadelphia +120 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
OT included. Philly's recipe for success has been a simple one. Limit shots on net and the scoring chances that come with them. The Flyers are 3-0 in their last three games when allowing fewer than 20 shots on goal. Two of those wins were against the offensively creative Lighting. The Flyers have been playing high pressure hockey, as they climb the Eastern Conference ladder going 7-2-1 in their last 10 games with victories over the Blackhawks, Red Wings and Lightning among others. We'll forgive the Flyers poor effort at home against the Pens on Saturday, as it came at the tail-end of those huge wins over the Wings and Hawks and besides that, the Penguins are playing great too. Goaltender Michel Neuvirth was injured last week and will miss the remainder if the season. Goaltender Steve Mason now takes over the #1 job with nobody breathing down his neck so this gives Mason a real chance to thrive. The Flyers are playing at a high level and it’s probably not a good idea to get in the way of a team with huge momentum this time of year. Anybody that wagered against the Sens last year in a similar scenario can attest to that.
The Islanders were having a nice season. They were flying under the radar, racking up wins and had their sights set on the playoffs but after a franchise long nine-game road trip, the Isles have seemingly hit a wall. They've lost three straight and have been flat as hell for most of the month of March. The Isles have only played two home games since heading out on the road February 19th. The schedule makers were relentless when they chased that nine-game roadie with five of the next seven on the road and the Isles are paying the price for it. Suddenly, there is more pressure on the Islanders right now than all season long because they have jeopardized their playoff chances. If the season ended today, the Isles would be the first Wild Card team but it’s not a comfortable position to be in, as they are just three points away from missing the playoffs altogether. It won't get easier tonight as they finally return “home” to Brooklyn to face off against the red-hot Flyers. The Isles have been outshot in six of their last seven games and have been run ragged all over the continent for over a month. It is probably going to take a game or two for the Islanders to catch their breath. The Isles have got to be relieved that they play six of their next eight at Barclay's Center but it's a lot to ask them to flick the switch and turn it on tonight. This is the ultimate “team returning home after a trip” opportunity and we don't intend to miss it.
Ben Burns
Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks
Reason: We're getting a little extra line value with the visiting Bucks here, due to the fact that they played yesterday. However, the Bucks have actually played some of their best basketball recently, when playing the second of back-to-back games.
The last time that the Bucks played the second of b2b games, they won 109-100 at Brooklyn. You may be thinking, 'thats great, but the Nets are pretty bad.' True, however, the Bucks also won (117-109) at Atlanta, last month, when playing the second of b2b games. In fact, even their early season upset of the Warriors occurred when the Bucks were playing their second game in two days. Overall, they're 11-6 ATS in that situation this season.
As of this writing, the O/U line is 205.5 at most shops. That's noteworthy as the Pistons are just 2-5 SU/ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range. Meanwhile, the Bucks are 4-1 ATS on the road, when the O/U line fell in the same range. Going back further finds Milwaukee at a profitable 11-2 ATS the last 13 times it played a road game with an O/U line ranging from 205 to 209.5.
While the Pistons beat up on Brooklyn on Saturday, they're just 7-10-1 ATS (7-11 SU) off a double-digit win. Only three of their 10 March games have resulted in a victory by more than seven. Consider taking the points.
Teddy Davis
Magic vs. Celtics
Play: Celtics -8
I like the Celtics here as they ended their 4 game winning streak last night vs the Sixers. The Celtics won't be taking this game lightly as they have a tough west coast trip coming up. The Magic played last night also @ the Raptors and only lot by 5. Their previous game they only lost by 6 to the Cavs. I see them just running out energy here tonight against another top Eastern Conference team. Magic are just 9-24-1 ATS L34 meetings in Boston.
Brandon Lee
Wizards +6.5
Both Washington and Atlanta come into this contest playing extremely well. The Wizards have won 4 straight, while the Hawks have won 5 in a row and 10 of their last 12. I look for the betting public to be all over Atlanta at home in this one, but I think the value is clearly with Washington. This game means so much more to the Wizards, who are a 1.5-games back of both Detroit and Chicago for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Washington will also be playing with revenge in this one, as they lost 99-114 at Atlanta in the most recent meeting, despite leading 45-41 at the half. Keep in mind each of the previous 4 games in the series had been decided by 5 points or less.
Jimmy Boyd
Bulls -7½
Chicago can't afford to lose at home to the Kings, as they find themselves sitting tied for the 8th and final playoff spot in the east with the Pistons. Given Sacramento's recent form and the fact that they are no longer in the playoff race out west, Chicago should have no problem cashing in and cover tonight.
The Bulls have started to turn things around of late. Chicago has won 5 of their last 8 and are 6-2 ATS during the stretch. The Kings come in off a 88-80 win at New York, but are just 3-11 SU and 4-9-1 ATS over their last 14. The key here is we catch Sacramento in an awful spot. The Kings will not only being playing the second game of a back-to-back set on the road, but this will be their 3rd road game in the last 4 days. The last time they played on no rest, they lost 108-123 at home to an injury depleted Pelicans team after beating the Lakers on the road the previous night.
Sacramento is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 when playing on 0 days of rest, 1-10 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a winning record and 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 against the Eastern Conference. Chicago is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Western Conference.
Jack Jones
Monmouth -2
The Monmouth Hawks are certainly disappointed they didn't make the NCAA Tournament, but make no mistake, they are more than happy to be playing in the NIT. This is a huge tournament for a program like Monmouth, and I fully expect it to make the most of it.
So far so good as the Hawks rolled to a 90-80 victory over Bucknell as 9-point favorites in their NIT opener last week. Remember, this is a team that has road wins over the likes of UCLA, Notre Dame, USC and Georgetown this season. The Hawks are the real deal.
George Washington doesn't want to be here nearly as badly. It blew a huge lead against St. Joe's in the A-10 Tournament and lost 80-86 to seal its fate in terms of not making the NCAA Tournament. Then, the Colonials had a lackluster performance at home in an 82-80 win over Hofstra in the first round of the NIT last week.
The Colonials are 18-38 ATS in their last 56 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, and 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning % above .600 overall. The Hawks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record, including 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Dave Price
Minnesota Timberwolves +13
The Minnesota Timberwolves will look at this opportunity to face the Golden State Warriors as their Championship Game this season. I expect them to hang around for four quarters and to cover this 13-point spread at home. The Warriors are a tired team right now as this will be their 7th game in 11 days, and they started to show signs of wearing down in their 79-87 loss at San Antonio Saturday. The T'Wolves have hung tough against the Warriors in recent meetings as each of the last four meetings were decided by 13 points or less. Minnesota is 47-26 ATS revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last 3 seasons. Golden State is 2-12 ATS vs. teams who are outscored by 3 or more points per game on the season in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. Bets on home dogs of 10 or more points when revenging a loss where their opponent scored 100 or more points, off a cover where they lost straight up as an underdog are 42-13 ATS since 1996.
Aaron Toller
Hornets +6½
Big game for the Hornets at home blowing a game the other night they should have won. Spurs coming off a hard fought victory against west leading golden state warriors. This to me is a bit of a let down spot and personally I like the Hornets to get the win.
Scott Rickenbach
Boston University +4½
This is a revenge game for Boston University as they lost to New Jersey Institute of Technology back in November. The Highlanders took that game by 14 points but the Terriers now get their shot to avenge that loss. Boston University is on a long-term 6-3 ATS run when playing with road loss revenge. Also, in non-conference action the Terriers are also 6-3 ATS the last three seasons and on a long-term 30-14 ATS run. Of course what this tells you is that Boston U. is often under-valued and I believe that is the case again here. The Terriers played a tougher schedule this season in comparison with the Highlanders. Also, NJIT only had a straight-up record of 4-8 this season in their games against teams with a winning record. Certainly New Jersey Institute of Technology took advantage of facing weaker opposition in the Atlantic Sun Conference. Earlier this season both of these teams played Kentucky. While NJIT got obliterated immediately once the second half got underway, the feisty Terriers actually put up quite the "dogfight". They were within single digits of the Cats with just 8 minutes to go in the game. I feel strongly that the Terriers are the more talented team and, no matter the venue, I see good line value here with Boston U in the underdog role.
Brad Wilton
My comp play for Monday is the Aztecs of San Diego State to take care of business against visiting Washington.
The teams played back-to-back games in 2013 and 2014, with the host winning outright in both, but the Huskies covering against the spread in both.
Don't look for that cover tonight from U-Dub, as Washington is just 6-9 straight up on the road this season, while San Diego State stands at 14-4 straight up on their home floor this season.
The Huskies were a little lucky in their come-from-behind home win in the opening round against Long Beach State, while the Aztecs hammered IPFW by 24-points in their opening round game for the easy cover.
SD State feels slighted that they were left out of the Big Dance, and I look for them to once again take out their frustrations on the Pac 12 rep Huskies.
Go with the Aztecs.
4* SAN DIEGO STATE
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the same as Sunday's freebie winner, and that is to play the Philadelphia 76ers to land Over the posted total.
Last night, Philly allowed 120 points at home to Boston in a game that easily eclipsed the posted price. The 76ers are now on an overall run of 8-4 Over the total their last dozen games played, with 3 of 4 in that stretch on the road Over the price.
The Pacers played Over the total on Saturday night at home against Oklahoma City, and the lone series meeting this year against Philadelphia back in November also went Over the total.
Series numbers show a 6-2-1 Over mark the last 9 played at Indiana between the teams.
Nothing changes here, as Philly simply plays no defense.
Sixers-Pacers Over the total.
4* PHILADELPHIA-INDIANA OVER
Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is on the Indiana Pacers, laying the points to the Philadelphia 76ers.
While the Pacers are looking to avoid a season-high third straight home loss tonight, they couldn't ask for a better opponent to score a win over, as they welcome a horrendous Philadelphia 76ers team to town.
Indiana undoubtedly will be favored in its next three contests, as it has a home game Thursday against New Orleans, which is without superstar Anthony Davis and then plays in Brooklyn Saturday. So tuning up againstthe lowly 76ers should be a breeze.
And rigt now, the Pacers can't afford to slack off, sitting in seventh place in the Eastern Conference with a one-half game lead on Chicago and Detroit.
Philadelphia, which is without injured star rookie Jahlil Okafor and third-leading scorer Robert Covington has missed the last five games due to a concussion, has lost nine straight on the road, 18 of 19 overall and is 3-41 against Eastern Conference foes.
Even worse, the 76ers have lost seven of the last eight to the Pacers and four straight in Indiana.
On Nov. 18, the Pacers blasted Philadelphia, 112-85, as the 76ers committed a God-awful 31 turnovers to match the worst total by an NBA team in the last 11 seasons.
Philadelphia averages a league-worst 17.1 turnovers, and now faces a pissed off Indiana team that needs a win. the Pacers just may win this one by 25.
1* PACERS
Scott Delaney
For my free winner tonight, play the Chicago Bulls minus the points against the visiting Sacramento Kings, as Derrick Rose and company look to maintain possession of one of the Eastern Conference's final spots.
Rose is in after a stellar night from the field, as he hit 67 percent (10 of 15) from the floor for 22 points, en route to a 92-85 win over Utah on Saturday. The win helped the Bulls move one percentage point ahead of Detroit for eighth place in the East. Now they need to keep the momentum going.
The Bulls, plain and simple, have to focus on getting wins. Everyone knows this time of the season is about runs and momentum. The Eastern Conference is tight right now, and wins are essential.
Chicago should be able to notch more victories, as it has gone 2-1 in a string of seven straight matchups against sub-.500 teams. The Bulls are on a five-game win streak at the United Center against Sacramento, which has lost 11 of 14.
The Kings' defense is horrendous, in allowing a league-high average of 109.2 points.
Take the Bulls tonight.
5* BULLS
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 31-20 run with complimentary plays: Golden State (-12) at MINNESOTA.
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Minnesota Timberwolves couldn't have asked for a worse opponent tonight. The Golden State Warriors just lost to the San Antonio Spurs, and Stephen Curry had his worst regular-season shooting performance in 170 games - dating to Feb. 26, 2014 - making 4 of 18 and 1 of 12 from deep for 14 points as the Warriors' win streak ended at seven games. I think Curry goes off tonight, and Golden State might win by 30.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor is pride and revenge. The Warriors aren't getting revenge on Minnesota, but simply avenging that terrible loss to the Spurs. After a 130-112 win at Dallas on Friday, when the Warriors shot 50 percent for the fourth straight game and made 22 of 38 3-pointers to open a three-game road trip, they made just 37.8 percent for their second-worst shooting game of the season in an 87-79 loss at San Antonio. Now they have to regain some pride and play big.
BOTTOM LINE is - Golden State is still on pace to set the NBA's single-season record with 73 victories, as long as it finishes 11-2 - which would clinch the top seed. Oh yeah, did I mention finishing with the Western Conference's No. 1 seed is no longer a sure thing after losing to the Spurs? After tonight, the Warriors play nine of their final 12 games at home, where they are 32-0. They have lost two of three on the road. They need to win this one tonight.
1* WARRIORS