Free Picks for Monday, March 27th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Ray Monohan
Cavaliers vs. Spurs
Play: Over 212.5
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Cavaliers haven't been able to slow down anyone as of late on the defensive end, and I expect that to be the same on Monday night against the Spurs.
Now as of late the Spurs haven't been great on the offensive end, but that will change Monday night. In the last four games the Cavaliers have given up at least 105 points in each game.
On the offensive end they have scored at least 113.
Some trends to note. Over is 13-3-1 in Cavaliers last 17 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Over is also 4-0 in their last four games. Over is 7-1 in last seven meetings in San Antonio. Over is 11-3 in last 14 meetings.
I expect a high scoring game in this one.
Jim Feist
Blackhawks vs. Lightning
Play: Lightning +111
It's a long road trip for Chicago, the middle of a three-game trip, off 7-0 loss. The Blackhawks are 1-6 in their last 7 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game. Tampa Bay is home from a two game trip, winning both including as a +170 dog at Boston. The Lightning are 39-19 in their last 58 games playing on 2 days rest. And the Blackhawks are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings in Tampa Bay.
Mike Lundin
Cavaliers vs. Spurs
Play: Spurs -4½
The Cleveland Cavaliers have alternated wins and losses through their last six games and they took a 127-115 beating by Washington home at Quicken Loans Arena on Saturday. They're 6-16-2 ATS in their last 24 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points and I think they'll find it tough to bounce back here at San Antonio.
The Spurs are coming off a 106-108 win against New York, their fourth straight victory, and they won 118-115 in OT at Cleveland back in January. Cleveland is just 3-8 ATS as an underdog this season and 11-17 in non-conference games. San Antonio is the no-brainer pick in this contest.
Rob Vinciletti
Cavaliers vs. Spurs
Play: Spurs -4½
This could be a potential championship series with the Spurs taking on the Cavs. The Spurs have won 17 of 21 here vs Cleveland and are 5-1 ats vs teams with a .600 or higher win percentage and they have covered 18 of 24 vs teams who score 105 or more points per game. The Cavs are only a half game up for the overall top spot in the East and have not played much defense allowing over 120 points in 3 of their last 4 games. The Cavs are 1-8 ats off a double digit home loss and have failed to cover 5 of 6 vs South West division teams.
Andrew Gold
Pelicans vs. Jazz
Play: Jazz -7
I believe we will see the Jazz show up here tonight as they now control home court advantage for the first round in the playoffs. Utah has been struggling, but I'm giving them a pass since all those games were on the road. Pelicans played well last night in a big effort vs the Nuggets and now on a back to back with Cousins being questionable. This is the 3rd road game in 4 days for the Pelicans.
Pelicans 1-5-1 ATS L7 games playing on zero days rest.
Jazz are 7-2 ATS L9 games after losing by 10 points or more in previous game
Teddy Davis
Thunder vs. Mavs
Play: Mavs +1½
I know most will say this is a bounce back spot for the Thunder who are tying to sneak into that 4th and 5th spot. However, the Mavs still have playoff hopes and they won't be laying down either. They truly need this game if they have any hopes to stay in the conversation. Another key here for Dallas is that this is their last home game for a while as they head on the road for 5 straight so you know the effort will be here tonight.
John Ryan
Wyoming vs. Coastal Carolina
Play: Coastal Carolina +1
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points
The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.
Wyoming is 27-52 ATS (-30.2 Units) when they attempt 14 to 18 free throws in a game since
Wyoming is 29-50 ATS (-26.0 Units) when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game
CC is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams making >=72% of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
Wyoming is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games off a home win over the last 3 seasons.
Marc Lawrence
Magic vs. Raptors
Play: Raptors -9
Edges - Raptors: 4-2 ATS in this series with same season double revenge, including 3-0 ATS when Orlando owns a sub .600 win percentage; and 13-8 ATS as a home favorite following a win this season… Magic: 2-10 ATS last twelve games versus foes with double revenge-exact. With the Magic off an upset win, look for them to begin going through the motions down the stretch, starting tonight. We recommend a 1* play on Toronto.
Wunderdog
Nashville @ New York
Pick: Nashville -114
Nashville is on a roll, ranked seventh in the NHL in goals scored, #11 on the power play, and off Saturday's 7-2 rout of San Jose. The Predators are 6-1-2 in their last nine games to all but clinch a postseason spot. They head to a struggling New York Islanders squad that has dropped four in a row after a 2-1 home loss to Boston. They had just 19 shots in the loss to the Bruins, with only 10 coming at even strength. The Islanders went 0-for-6 on the power play Saturday and are 2-for-19 over their last seven games. And the defense has struggled all season at #26 in goals allowed.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. ISLANDERS +102 over Nashville
OT included. The Predators are red-hot with three wins in a row and six wins in their last seven games. Nashville has outscored its last three opponents by a combined score of 13-4, capped off by Saturday’s resounding 7-2 victory over the Sharks. With a 10-point lead on the Kings, the Predators are going to the playoffs again this year and now it’s only a matter of battling for position. Finishing third in the Central ahead of the red-hot St. Louis Blues, who lost for just the second time in 10 games when they fell to Calgary on Saturday, would likely allow Nashville to face the reeling Minnesota Wild (2-7-1 in the last 10 games) in the first round of the playoffs instead of the Central-leading Chicago Blackhawks or any of the four teams battling for the Pacific Division title but does it really matter? Likely not when the possibilities are Anaheim, Chicago, St. Louis, San Jose or Minnesota. After all but securing a playoff spot with an important three-game sweep in its recent home stand, which included victories over Calgary and San Jose in the last two, Nashville surely can relax a bit knowing its work is pretty much done.
The Islanders fell out of a tie for the second Wild Card in the Eastern Conference on Saturday night when they lost to the visiting Boston Bruins 2-1. However, the Isles were not outplayed by the B’s and simply ran into a hot backup goaltender. The Islanders are still 9-3-3 in their last 15 games at Barclays Center. This season's streak of 11 straight home games with a point was their longest single-season streak since 1982. During the streak, the Islanders out-scored opponents 44-27. New York has earned 20 points at the Barclays Center since Doug Weight took over as head coach on Jan. 17, the most of any team in the NHL over that time. It gets better too. Dating back to last season, the Islanders are 21-3-3 (9-3-1 this season) when playing a Western Conference opponent at Barclays Center. When teams’ travel here, they are almost always going to Madison Square Gardens next or they just came from MSG. Perhaps playing at the Barclay’s Center is anti-climactic and the Isles are able to take advantage of it. Whatever the case, the Isles are dominating at home but they are not priced like it one bit. That sets up this underlay nicely.
BUFFALO +108 over Florida
OT included. The question here is which one of these teams is more likely to suffer a letdown after they both had convincing wins on Saturday. Toronto went into Buffalo on Saturday but their playoff express went off the rails for a night with a 5-2 Sabres victory. The Leafs were 7-1-1 in their previous nine games and held a three-point lead for third place in the Atlantic Division but they couldn't match the Sabres' intensity. The arena was packed with Maple Leafs fans. There was a roar when the Leafs took the ice for warmups, an eruption when they entered to start play and "O Canada" was sang at levels you never hear in the building. All the noise was to embarrassing levels and Buffalo responded with one of its best games of the year. The propensity for a letdown is certainly present but what about the Panthers?
Florida is coming off a resounding 7-0 victory over Chicago back in Sunrise on Saturday night. You see pictures of players holding up pucks for the cameras with big smiles on their faces. It was a night to remember to be sure for a franchise that doesn’t get to celebrate often. Now the Panthers have to play in Buffalo for a meaningless game before playing in Toronto tomorrow night and in Montreal on Thursday. Those upcoming two games will be in electric atmospheres in two hockey hotbeds and thus, it’s extremely likely that this “sandwich” game will not bring the best out of the Panthers. This is a big trouble spot for the visitor but besides that, who the f**k are the Panthers to be favored on the road?
Back to the Sabres and the possibility of them being flat. For sure it’s possible but Buffalo has so many good parts working right now. The return of Kyle Okposo to the lineup instantly gave the Sabres a boost of energy that is not likely to regress after one game back. Buffalo’s power-play is ranked #1 in the entire league, which is another area in which the Sabres can dominate. The Sabres are more balanced, they're at home and they do not have anything on deck that could take away from their focus in this one. Give the Sabres an edge in goal too. Lastly. Jamomir Jagr has been an inspiration to the Panthers all year. Florida players cannot put forth half-assed efforts when a 45-year-old legend is going all out every shift. Jagr went down with a lower-body ailment in Saturday’s 7-0 triumph over Chicago and it appears as though he’ll be sitting here so his inspiring presence will not be present. If we have this one wrong, so be it but Florida cannot be favored here and therefore Buffalo must be played.
Scott Rickenbach
Pelicans vs. Jazz
Play: Jazz -7
The Pelicans got me last night. I did have my top play side on the Nuggets yesterday but Denver only shot 38% from the field while New Orleans knocked down 50% of their shots. That sets this one up nicely for a bounce back spot to go against the Pelicans. Look for New Orleans to struggle as they go from one high altitude venue to another one on back to back nights and that will prove to be too taxing for the Pelicans. They also are catching the Jazz at the wrong time because Utah is off of a loss at Los Angeles against the Clippers Saturday and they'll be fired up for a bounce back here. Though the Jazz have been in an ATS slump and an overall slump, that truly has had a lot do with being on the road. Utah is actually on a 4-0 run in home games. The Jazz are 6-2 SU (and 5-3 ATS) when they are off of a loss by a double digit margin. Also, the Pelicans are 2-7 SU (and 3-6 ATS) when off of a game where they allowed 90 points or less. New Orleans is also an ugly 4-9-1 ATS this season when they are playing the 2nd game of a back to back. Look for more of the same here!
Jimmy Boyd
Cavaliers vs. Spurs
Play: Spurs -5
I like the value here with the Spurs at home against the Cavaliers. San Antonio has won 4 straight and will certainly be up for hosting the defending champs in a nationally televised game on TNT. Cleveland comes in off an ugly 115-127 home loss to the Wizards and are just 7-9 over their last 16 games. A big reason for the Cavs struggles of late, is the schedule. This will be Cleveland's 11th road game over their last 15 contests. That's a lot of travel to overcome an on top of that the Cavs are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. San Antonio is 28-7 at home this season and have won 17 of the last 21 meetings at home against Cleveland. Cavs are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 after a double-digit loss at home and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games.
Jack Jones
Pelicans vs. Jazz
Play: Jazz -7
Rudy Gobert voiced his frustration following a 95-108 loss to the Clippers on Saturday. It was the Jazz' fourth loss in five games and a poor stretch for a team that is fighting for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. I expect them to respond in a big way at home tonight.
Now the Jazz will be up against the Pelicans, who are in a very tough spot here. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after winning 115-90 in Denver last night. They had lost 107-117 to the Rockets the game prior. They won't have much left in the tank tonight, while this will be only the 2nd game in 5 days for the Jazz.
Utah is 24-12 at home this season, while New Orleans is just 12-24 on the road. The Pelicans are 6-21 ATS in thier last 27 road games off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog. New Orleans is 3-12 ATS in road games revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last two seasons. The Pelicans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on 0 days rest. Utah is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following a loss by more than 10 points.
Info Plays
Magic vs. Raptors
Play: Raptors -9
I'm taking the Raptors tonight. I have some systems supporting our pick. Toronto is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 2 seasons.Toronto is 40-32 ATS (+4.8 Units) in all games this season.