DAVE COKIN
SABRES AT RED WINGS
PLAY: SABRES +165
These last few regular season games are huge for the Detroit Red Wings. It’s been ages since the Wings found themselves on the outside looking in come playoff time. But Detroit is in trouble right now and they absolutely cannot afford to let two points get away tonight as they host the Sabres.
But must win doesn’t mean will win and I suspect the Wings could be in for a tough go of it tonight. Buffalo might be playing out the string in the standings, but certainly not on the ice. The Sabres are playing with lots of intensity and desire, and I’m sure they’d like nothing better than to play the role of spoiler tonight.
The big problem right now for Detroit is between the pipes. Petr Mrazek has really struggled lately, and the same can be said for Jimmy Howard. It’s not exactly rocket science to grasp the fact that poor goaltending can end up impacting every aspect of a team’s play, and that is the issue that has been plaguing the Wings down the stretch.
This play is all about value for me. Detroit is simply not playing anywhere close to a level that can justify them laying -185 to almost any team. Considering the way the Sabres have been playing, and especially so if factoring in the big efforts that have been on display, this game looks to me like a substantial overlay. I haven’t done especially well when taking big dog stabs on the ice this season, but this is one I cannot resist. I’ll go with the Buffalo side to score the upset.
Stephen Nover
Columbus +1.5 -140
Washington is the best team in hockey. The Capitals have 111 points. No other team has reached 100 points. Washington already has clinched the top seed in the Eastern Conference. All of this makes the Capitals vulnerable in a game like this where they lack motivation and incentive.
There's a fatigue factor working against the Capitals, too. This is their third game in four nights. The Capitals aren't in outstanding form either going just 4-4 in their last eight games.
Columbus is seven games below .500. The Blue Jackets, though, usually can be counted on to play hard thanks to fiery coach John Tortorella. The team doesn't play again until Thursday so a full effort should be forthcoming especially when taking on the No. 1 team.
So I'm going to get involved on the puck line and take 1 1/2 goals laying extra juice. If the Capitals were forced to lay 1 1/2 goals during their last 19 games they would be 2-17.
Ben Burns
Tennessee Tech vs. Old Dominion
Play: Old Dominion -7
The Monarchs won 10 games on the road this season, allowing an average of only 64.7 ppg on the road and 61.7 ppg overall. That ability to win on the road, combined with a far superior defense, should give ODU a solid edge on Monday. Tennessee Tech won only five road games this season, giving up more than 80 ppg on the road. Its just 2-6 ATS its last eight against teams with a winning record. Consider laying the points.
Scott Spreitzer
Tennessee Tech vs. Old Dominion
Play: Old Dominion -7
Part of the equation when it comes to handicapping the new Vegas-16 tourney is how teams will react after not having played for a rather lengthy time. Old Dom came within a basket of making the Big Dance, losing 55-53 to Middle Tennessee State, who went on to upset Michigan State in the opening round of the NCAA tourney. ODU hasn't played in 16 days. But Tennessee Tech hasn't played since a March 2 loss to Austin Peay. Yes, it has been 26 days since the Golden Eagles played an actual game. This is a team that played little defense this season, relying on offense. So, the fact they've had nearly a month off won't likely help correct their defensive flaws. However, it could cause problems on the offensive end, at least in the early going. Tech allowed 76 ppg on 44% shooting this season and they're upside down on the glass. They lost three of their last four games and four of their final six, covering just once. The Eagles allowed 82 ppg, while scoring 72 ppg over the final six contests, while their opponents made 48% of their FGA. ODU isn't anything special on offense, so the 16 day layoff shouldn't hurt. Instead, the Monarchs should be fresh on the defensive end where they do their best work. The Monarchs held teams to 61.8 ppg (7th best) on 39.7% (26th best) shooting on the season, including 31.1% from behind the arc (24th best). They finished the season on a 7-1 SU (6-2 ATS) run, holding their opponents to 37.8% shooting. We should note that under Coach Payne, Tennessee Tech has covered just 7 of 24 against teams that hold their opponents to 42% or less shooting, averaging just 62 ppg in those contests.
Marc Lawrence
Brooklyn at Miami
Play: Miami -10
Edges - Heat: 15-1 SU and 12-4 ATS versus sub .400 opponents this season; and 6-1 SUATS last seven games versus foes off a SU underdog win. Nets: 3-6 ATS off a SU underdog win when facing an Eastern Conference foe this season, including 1-4 ATS versus an opponent off a win. With that, we recommend a 1* play on Miami.
Mike Lundin
Brooklyn at Miami
Play: Miami -10
The Brooklyn Nets are coming off a pair of home wins against Cleveland and Indiana, but I don't like their chances at Miami Monday night. They'll have to deal with a red hot Hassan Whiteside who has four straight double-doubles and 10 in the last 11 games for Miami.
The Heat have won three of their last four and are still battling for the No. 3 seed in the East. They looked extremely solid when they breezed past the Magic in a 108-97 win Friday and they're 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. The Nets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win and 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
Miami has won eight of the last nine meetings, but Brooklyn won the last contest here at American Airlines Arena 111-105 on Dec. 28. The Heat will be hungry to revenge that defeat and they're 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings overall.
Bob Harvey
Celtics vs. Clippers
Play: Celtics +3
The Boston Celtics look to match their longest winning streak of the year when they visit the Los Angeles Clippers.Boston took the series opener beating LA 139-134 in overtime but the Clips have won the last three games at Staples.
The Celtics (43-30, 39-33 ATS) opened their current five-game road trip with a 102-99 win - their fourth in a row - in Phoenix on Friday. Isiah Thomas scored 28 for Boston which moved into fourth-place in the Eastern Conference, a half- game ahead of Miami and a half-game behind Atlanta. Two of the Celtics final three regular-season games are against those two aforementioned teams.
The Clippers (45-27, 33-36 ATS) will be looking to complete a three-game sweep of their homestand after picking up wins over Portland and Denver. DeAndre Jordan led six players in double figures with 16 points, 16 rebounds and six blocked shots in Sunday's 105-90 triumph over the Nuggets, which clinched the fifth straight playoff berth for Los Angeles and move the Southern California quintet 4.5 games in front of Memphis in the battle for fourth-place in the Western Conference. Blake Griffin, who has missed a plethora of action this season with hand and quad injuries, was activated prior to Sunday's game. However he must serve three more games of a four-game suspension before he can play.
The UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Los Angeles
John Ryan
Nevada vs. Morehead State
Play: Morehead State -4
SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Morehead State will win this game by at least 7 points. This is game 1 of a best-of-three CBI Finals format.
Technical Discussion Points MS is a solid 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when they make 38% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game this season; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they allow 67 to 74 points in a game this season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they score 75 to 80 points in a game over the last 2 seasons; 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers in a game over the last 2 seasons. The matchup favors MS as well noting they are a rock solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
Will Rogers
Thunder vs. Raptors
Play: Under 211
The Oklahoma City Thunder will travel north of the border to face the Toronto Raptors, and this is a game that could be more meaningful to the home team. The Raptors are just 2.5 games back of first place Cleveland in the East, while the Thunder are firmly planted in third place in the West, miles ahead of the Clippers, and even further behind the second place Spurs. I think the total for this game looks a little inflated, and my money is on the under.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History - Both these teams are capable of scoring more than their share of points, but previous meetings have trended toward the under. They've failed to reach total in eight of the last nine meetings, and Oklahoma City has gone under in five of it's last six versus teams with a winning record.
2. Home Cookin' - The Raptors are 28-8 at home this season, and they rank 5th in the NBA allowing opponents to average just 98 points per game. They allowed opponents to score more than 100 points in only four of those 28 home wins. Toronto has also gone under in 10 of it's last 11 versus Western Conference teams.
3. X-Factor - Oklahoma City has played low scoring games against non-conference foes, with the under going 17-7 in the Thunder's last 24 versus the Eastern Conference.
Art Aronson
Thunder vs. Raptors
Play: Raptors +3
Clearly we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset here today, but strictly speaking from an ATS stand-point, this one is pretty lop-sided. OKC has struggled in this spot for bettors all year, going 28-35 ATS as the favorite, 11-21 ATS on the road, 10-17 ATS in non-conference games, just 4-7 ATS in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent and only 9-13 ATS after three or more consecutive SU victories. Toronto on the other hand is 13-6 ATS as an underdog this year, 19-17 ATS at home overall, and also 20-12 ATS vs. teams with winning records. This also sets up as a classic letdown/look-ahead spot for the visitors, who come in off seven straight victories, the last three all coming at home, including an extremely satisfying 112-92 win over San Antonio on Saturday. And with a game tomorrow night in Detroit, it’s definitely not too hard to imagine the Thunder coming in a bit complacent and flat vs. the Raptors. We’ll highly recommend a second look at the home side in this one.
Larry Ness
Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat
Prediction: Miami Heat
Miami’s Chris Bosh (19.1-7.4) is out indefinitely with a leg injury (blood clots) but starters Wade (19.0-4.1-4.7), Whiteside (13.9-11.8-3.8 BPG), Dragic (13.8-5.9 APG) and Deng (12.0-5.9 APG), as well as reserves Green (8.9) and rookie Winslow (6.4-5.2) have pretty much been healthy all season. Also, after the Nets bought out Joe Johnson’s contract in February, he’s found a home in Miami. Johnson has provided a spark for the Heat, averaging 13.6 PPG on 53.6 percent shooting, including 52.2 percent on threes. The Heat are 10-4 in the games he’s played for Miami and the Heat are right in the middle of a four-team battle for the East’s No. 3 seed.
Currently, four teams (seeds 3 through 6) are separated by just 1 1/2 games. Miami is currently 5th, one game behind Atlanta (3), a half-game back of Boston (4) and a half-game up on Charlotte (6). The Heat opened a four-game stretch against sub-.500 teams by knocking off Orlando 108-97, will host the 21-51 Nets tonight and then start a Western road trip against the struggling Los Angeles Lakers (15-58) on Wednesday before playing at the Sacramento Kings (29-44) on Friday. Bosh is on the road to recovery and could return to a team that is capable of making a postseason run in the wide-open East.
The Nets are going nowhere but Brooklyn has beaten a pair of playoff-contending teams in its last two games, including East-leading Cleveland 104-95 on Thursday. The Nets then rallied from a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter for a 120-110 victory against Indiana on Saturday. "I think we have made a lot of strides the past couple of weeks," said center Brook Lopez (20.8-8.0), who is averaging 24.7 points in his last three games. "We've got guys out here that want to work, want to play. They realize the chance we have these last two weeks to get better and make our team better." Then again, who does Lopez think he’s kidding?
Brooklyn has lost FIVE straight on the road and is 7-27 SU away from Barclays Center on the season. The Heat have won EIGHT of their last 10 at home overall (7-3 ATS) plus have won EIGHT of their last nine meetings with the Nets (7-2 ATS), including 6-1 SU & ATS the last one-plus seasons (since LBJ left South Beach).
Jim Feist
Sacramento at Portland
Pick: Portland
Sacramento playing the second of a back-to-back spot here, after beating Dallas on Sunday, 133-111. The Kings have not done so well in this spot, evidenced by their 1-5 ATS mark the last six times and 3-5 ATS mark the last eight on the road. Portland pretty much slept walked through the second half of their game against Philly. The Blazers build a large lead at halftime, only to see the entire thing evaporate at the hands of the reserves. Portland had to put the regulars back in to salvage the game late and pull out the win, 108-105. Portland has covered both games against the Kings this season, winning at home by 15 points. The Kings should be good and tired here. Add to that, C DeMarcus Cousins is doubtful and this should be a Portland blowout.
Sleepyj
Nevada +4.5
I'll take my chances here with Nevada tonight..Not a bad team and they matchup rather well with Morehead I think...Nevada should win the rebounding battle in this one...Stat wise Morehead has a better PPG on defense, but Nevada wins plenty of other areas on defense...Defensive Rebounds, blocks, fouls, OPP stg %.....On offense Nevada lacks in assists, but they win plenty of areas on that side as well...A better team with not turning the ball over and they also have a good free throw shooting team as well..I can't say the same for Morehead...IMO the little things will add up here..Sure this one is on the road, but I made my number +1.5...I'll grab this 4.5 all day with a team that wins the stat battle...The little things show up in these tournaments and the Wolfpack gets many of the little areas most miss..Close game and I would not rule out Nevada pulling out a win here.
Ricky Tran
Hawks vs. Bulls
Play: Hawks -3
The reeling Bulls are looking less and less likely to make it to the post-season coming off a pair of losses to New York and a 111-89 loss at Orlando Saturday. The Hawks are arguably the hottest team in the NBA and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall. They still have some motivation trying to hold on to the third seed in the East and are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings with Chicago.
Alex Smart
Knicks vs. Pelicans
Play: Pelicans +4½
The NY Knicks after playing their hearts out in a 107-93 loss to Cleveland last time out, will now be in a letdown spot vs a New Orleans side that is desperately looking to be taken seriously and salvage some pride as this season winds down . I know HC Gentry's Pelicans are pretty banged up, but I expect they find a way to stay competitive and cover this number.
The Knicks are 0-17 SU as a dog with at most one day of rest after a loss when their DPA was higher than plus 13.5 points, which was the case vs Cleveland in their last effort.