Wunderdog
Phoenix @ Minnesota
Pick: Phoenix +7
Phoenix has won two of the three meetings this season, including 107-104 on March 14 when P.J. Tucker scored 23 points and grabbed 12 rebounds. The Suns come off a 102-99 loss to Boston on Saturday after mounting a comeback before falling short as Devin Booker had another impressive outing scoring 21 points. Minnesota is only 12-24 straight up at home, including an ugly 93-84 setback against Utah on Saturday. Ricky Rubio scored 23 points, but the Timberwolves shot only 38.1 percent from the field and managed just 10 points in the first quarter. Phoenix is 5-0 ATS its last five games after a loss, and the Timberwolves now are 14-29-1 ATS their last 44 home games.
Bruce Marshall
Nets / Heat Over 211
Interesting dynamics here as Miami G Joe Johnson gets his first look at his former Nets team since Brooklyn released him in late February. But Johnson seems revived after his subsequent signing with Miami and has provided a spark for the Heat, who had won 9 of 13 SU with Joe going into last Friday's game vs. Orlando. (Though Johnson, after scoring double-digits in 11 of his first 12 with Miami, recorded less than 10 in recent games vs. Pelicans and Spurs). On the other hand, Brooklyn still continues to fight, recently knocking off the Cavs, with Arizona rookie Rondae Hollis-Jefferson providing a spark and C Brook Lopez tallying 26 ppg since returning from recent one-game absence. (Note Lopez also scored 26 and gathered 12 boards when Brooklyn won at AA Arena back on Dec. 28 when Chris Bosh was still available for Heat). "Totals" alert-Heat "over" 8-1 last 9.
California Sports
UC Santa Barbara -4.5
While Northern Illinois has a better record 21-12 versus 18-13 for Santa Barbara this certainly helps us as the line should be much higher. The Gauchos have faced the #86 toughest schedule while the Huskies faced the #200. While playing the more difficult schedule Santa Barbara also played an eye opening 20 of their 31 games away from home and went 12-8 SU as well has winning 9 off their last 10 games outright. Northern Illinois went 18-1 at home so when they ventured out on the road they were only 3-11 with their last win away from home almost 2 1/2 months ago on January 12th. The Huskies also finished the season going 5-9 SU their lst 14 games overall.
Bob Balfe
Towson +6
Some of you who have been with me for the last decade remember the one year we bet against Towson almost every single game because they were just awful. This team has come a long way since then and actually play decent defense. Oakland was one of the top scoring teams in the nation, but over their last 10 games that number really came down and tonight after not playing for 3 weeks I just don’t see the offense being lights out against a Towson team that plays at one of the slowest paces in all of college basketball. Oakland is the marquee name in this Vegas 16 tournament, but I just don’t see them being able to perform at the level they need to win games. Taking 3 weeks off is probably the worst thing you can do to any good offensive team. Timing is everything and tonight I believe this really helps Towson who will bore you to death with the slow pace.
Joe Gavazzi
N. Illinois vs. Cal Santa Barbara (-4-)
This opening line of (-6) has been impacted by the loss of Green (11/5) for the Gauchos. But, they have plenty of perimeter power to compensate with guards Bryson (18/6), Vincent (14 PPG) and PG Childress to run the show. Barbie was red hot at 9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS (5-0 SU ATS away) before falling to league champ, Hawaii, by 12 in the CCT. Their challenge is to put the clamps on Husky big man, Maric, the near 7 footer who is averaging 12/9. But, N. Illinois was noncompetitive in a 79-62 loss to Ohio in the CCT and enters this contest with 8 consecutive road losses.
Towson vs. Oakland (-6)
Showtime in Vegas for one of the nation’s most exciting teams molded by 32 year HC Greg Kampe and led by lead guard Felder. The Golden Grizz average 86 PPG on 46% from the field, knocking down 9 triples at 40%, while converting 77% from the stripe to seal the deal. No problem with traveling for the Grizz, who are 14-3 ATS in road and neutral contests. Too much for the Towson Tigers, who average 15 less PPG and failed to growl in the CCT of the Colonial, where they languished in the middle of the pack.
ETSU vs. LA Tech (-2-)
It was an underperforming season for LA Tech after former HC White left for Florida and was replaced by Eric Konko (the former Larranaga Asst.). Though the Bulldogs did win 23 games for the 4th consecutive season, they slipped badly down the stretch with a season-ending road loss at WKU and a CCT loss (by 16) to ODU. One-man show, Hamilton (20 PPG) not enough to overcome the strong finish of ETSU. Under 1st year HC Forbes (Wichita Asst.), the Bucs were on a 6-0 SU ATS season-ending run, before losing to Chattanooga (for the 3rdtime) in the CCT. Forbes and the Bucs profited greatly with Cinci transfer Guyn and Juco Cromer turning on the jets to lead a 78 PPG offense. A gutsy underdog call on the SOCON dog!
SPORTS WAGERS
NASHVILLE -1½ +137 over Colorado
OT Included. Nashville is the first Wild Card team. Colorado is hanging by a thread. A win by the Predators here ends the Avs unlikely quest to make the playoffs. In other words, Nashville has a chance to hammer in the proverbial final nail in the Avs coffin. Colorado has been outscored 8-2 in losing its past two games. Those were its two most important games of the year that occurred against Philadelphia and Minnesota. In those two losses, Colorado allowed 80 shots on net. Colorado’s Corsi numbers are absolutely brutal. The Avs have somehow managed to stay in the playoff hunt most of the year but playing in their own end all season has finally caught up to them. Colorado has relied on their offense to win games but without Nathan MacKinnon and Matt Duchene, it puts a lot on the shoulders of others to produce. The Avs will now go into this gunfight with a butter knife.
The Predators are a team that nobody wants to play in the first round or any round for that matter. The Preds might have the best collection of talent on the same team in the entire league. If Nashville gets stable goaltending in the playoffs, they are going to be extremely tough to dispose of. Right now, however, there isn’t a team in the league in better form. The Preds have won five of six with only loss over that span occurring in Washington 10 days ago. This is a very talented and determined bunch that is peaking at precisely the right time. The Preds can officially put a resounding stamp on their season by knocking out the team that has been chasing them for the past few weeks and we absolutely trust them to respond. One final note here is that Patrick Roy is fully aware that this is the Avs last gasp. If Colorado is down by a goal or two, Roy will pull is goalie with four, five or 10 minutes left in the third depending on the situation. If you had any intentions of playing this game under the total, that’s a warning not to. RIP Colorado.
Winnipeg +175 over PHILADELPHIA
OT included. The Jets are a relaxed bunch that has nothing to lose. That makes them a tricky matchup for anyone with post season aspirations. Winnipeg has had great efforts lately against a couple of good teams, taking the Ducks to overtime and beating the Kings 4-1 before heading out on this road trip that began in Buffalo Saturday afternoon. The Jets blew a third period lead and lost 3-2 to the Sabres but so what. That was an afternoon game against another also-ran but this one is against a team that they’ll have a say in on whether or not they make the playoffs. That’s hugely motivating.
The Flyers have been one of the hottest teams in the league in the second half, which has resulted in them being in a strong position to make the playoffs. Tonight, Philly returns home after a four-game road trip that took them from the East coast to the Arizona desert. In all, the Flyers have played seven of their last nine games on the road, which is a hell of a grind especially when every game is “the biggest game of the season”. Fading a team coming home after a trip is a profitable angle. Tonight, the Flyers are priced like an elite team and we're sure that's not the case. They are priced this high because the oddsmakers are very aware that this one will be one-sided action on the team in a must win situation. In other words, you are going to pay a serious premium to wager on the Flyers here in a tough scheduling spot and in no way can that be recommended. The spotlight will be white hot on the home team tonight and while we like their chances to make the playoffs, we cannot get behind them at prices like this. This is the highest Philly's value has been all season, so it's time to sell and that’s precisely our position here.
Columbus +200 over WASHINGTON
OT included. Let’s get right to the chase here. Washington is this year’s President Trophy winner. They have home ice locked up and the only thing left for them to do is wait for the playoffs to begin. There are two weeks left in the season but for the Caps it’s going to seem like two months. To be playing for absolutely nothing while waiting for the playoffs to begin is a rather hideous process to be sure. It would be one thing if the Capitals were playing a potential playoff enemy but that’s not the case here. Washington does not have to send any messages to the Jackets so this is basically an exhibition game for them. The Caps goal is to stay healthy and stay sharp but psychologically, they aren’t likely to be playing at a high level because these games matter not. Why go crashing into the boards when you have nothing to gain from it?
The Jackets are coming off a poor performance in Nashville but that’s not going to deter us from playing them here at this price. Asked if this is as disappointed in his team since he took over as CBJ coach, John Tortorella said: "I'm not disappointed. I'm pissed." Columbus figures to be much more motivated than Washington and they have been playing well for six weeks. If this were a regular season game that meant everything to the Capitals, this line wouldn’t be much different, if it all. Everything that needed to be said about this game has been said. This is a massive price on the Capitals that is in no way warranted under these conditions.
EDMONTON +140 over Anaheim
OT included. The Ducks had a rough start to the year and needed an extreme push to get themselves into a playoff position. The Ducks went crazy from December until March but they are now feeling the effects from playing at such a high level for such a long stretch. Anaheim needed four unanswered goals after the second period to dispose of the Senators on Saturday. Prior to that, the Ducks dropped consecutive games in Toronto and Montreal. Losing to the Habs these days is not easy to do and neither is allowing the Maple leafs to score six times. Combined, the Ducks allowed Montreal, Toronto and Ottawa to score 13 goals over those three games. Anaheim now concludes its five game road trip that started in Winnipeg and ends here in Edmonton. For a team that travels extensively all season, this final game of said trip is a difficult one. That aforementioned four-goal rally on Saturday night had to take something out of them too.
The Oilers are not an easy team to play these days, especially in the final game of a five-game trip. Edmonton is 3-3 over its past six games with wins over Vancouver, San Jose and Los Angeles. Furthermore, the Oil scored four times on the Kings and six times on the Sharkies, which are two teams that pride themselves on not allowing goals. These two have played one another four times this season. Anaheim has won three of those but three of the four games have been decided by one goal and two of the games have gone to OT. That gives us an idea of how close that Edmonton has come to sweeping the Ducks or at least winning three of the four games. This now becomes the Oilers best situational spot against Anaheim this season and the price is more than appealing for us to take a position.
SPORTS WAGERS
Towson/Oakland Under 159½
The Golden Grizzlies had a very decent year in the Horizon League but their loss to Wright State in the conference semi-finals had to sting. The Grizzlies earned national recognition with their stunning win over Michigan State just before Christmas. They also ended up being the nation’s #1 scoring team by averaging 86½ points per game. The Grizzlies also have the most recognizable player on the floor here in Kahlil Felder, a giant talent that is no longer hidden at a mid-major program. In spite of his size (5-foot-9), Felder does everything. His per-game season averages – 24 points, 9.3 assists, 4.1 rebounds -- are absurd. Oakland is a team that plays fast and they’re also a team with five players averaging double figures in points per game. However, in their loss to Wright State in the conference semis, Oakland was held to just 55 points. That game was played three weeks ago on March 7. A three-week break between games can certainly take shooters out of rhythm and so can a trip to Vegas for college kids playing basketball. Besides that, we’re pretty sure that Towson has had plenty of time to study the film of Wright State slowing down these Grizzlies.
Oakland is just a six-point favorite here so a blowout is not expected and Towson is surely not going to play into Oakland’s strength. This Colonial Conference team is methodical and deliberate. Like the Grizzlies, the Tigers of Towson also had a good season with 20 wins, which was one less than the Grizzlies 21 wins. How both teams got to 20 wins was quite different however. Towson wins with defense so the Tigers will slow this game right down. Only three of their 32 games this season went over this number of 160 and one of those occurred in OT. The CAA was a strong conference this season with five teams having won 20 or more games (UNCW, Hofstra, James Madison, Towson and W&M). Eight teams had 16 wins. It was the first time in the 31-year history of the CAA that it had at least eight teams with at least 16 wins. Towson has outrebounded 28 of its 32 opponents, including 18 straight so second chance points for the Tigers are going to be hard to come by. Towson led the CAA in rebounding margin (+7.3), offensive rebounds (14.4), blocked shots (4.7), rebounding and offensive rebounding percentage. The Tigers were also second in scoring defense and field goal percentage defense. Defensively, Towson held George Mason scoreless for 5:27, Loyola scoreless for 4:04, William & Mary scoreless for 6:11 and UMBC without a basket for 9:10. They held three consecutive opponents below 20 points in the first half, Drexel (12), Charleston (18) and Northeastern (19). In home losses, Towson held Charleston to eight points over the final 13 minutes and Northeastern to seven points over the last 11 minutes. The point is that Towson is not going to come in here and try and trade punches with the Grizzlies. That’s a losing strategy that will not work. The Tigers have also been off for three weeks (23 days to be exact), which is another reason they are not going to try and play fast. The Tigers are a well-coached outfit that is not going to allow the Grizzlies to set the tempo here. They have come to Las Vegas to win a basketball game and they have the set the tempo all season long. The market however sees the highest scoring team in the country and the oddsmakers have responded by setting a number that is too high.
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 34-21 run with complimentary plays: Oklahoma City at TORONTO (+2').
The STORYLINE in this game today - It seems like a lack of having to play for anything - thus, no worries - has helped Oklahoma City lately. But that doesn't mean it should be laying points against a team surging toward the top of the Eastern Conference. On its court, no less. I like the Toronto Raptors as my free play tonight.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Letdown time, as the Thunder are in after Saturday's 111-92 home win over the San Antonio Spurs. Though the Spurs rested Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili, the Thunder still may have overexerted themselves and now hit Toronto for a full-on war.
BOTTOM LINE is - OKC has no chance of catching the Spurs for the West's No. 2 seed, and will head into the postseason with three seed instead. So to think the Thunder are going to kill themselves in meaningless games is a joke. Toronto is 2 1/2 games back of Cleveland for the top spot in the East, and is also looking for its first shot at the first 50-win season in franchise history.
5* RAPTORS
Brad Wilton
Monday comp play release is the Heat over the Nets.
Miami is on a little bit of a run on their home court, winning and covering their last pair at home, and they have won 6 of their last 7 now overall at home.
Brooklyn comes into this one off back-to-back home wins, but on the road the Nets have lost 5 straight, and 7 of their last 8. The points have not helped much either, as Brooklyn has failed their last 3 on the road and 5 of their last 7 against the spread away from the Barclays Center.
Miami has won 6 of the last 7 regular season series meetings, and they have covered in 6 of those 7 against the Nets as well.
Big number, but you must lay it.
2* MIAMI
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the Hawks to notch the win on the road against the Bulls.
Both Paul Millsap and Pau Gasol are dinged up, but all things being equal, it is Atlanta that is the team that is peaking as they head towards the postseason.
The Hawks have won 3 in a row and 8 of their last 9, and they have also covered in each of their last 3 wins, and in 7 of their last 8 games overall.
As for the Bulls, their playoff hopes have taken a big hit, as Chicago has now lost 3 in a row straight up, and they have also lost ALL 3 series meetings this year, and have dropped 5 of the last 6 to the Hawks both straight up and against the spread.
Gotta stick with Atlanta to keep on winning.
Play on the Hawks.
4* ATLANTA
Power Sports
San Antonio vs. Memphis
Pick: San Antonio
The Spurs are likely to again be short-handed here (Pop resting starters), just as was the case Saturday night in OKC when they got blown out 111-92. But it's not as if Memphis isn't short-handed here as well (missing three starters due to injury), so I'll still choose to lay what looks like a short number in this spot.
San Antonio, who can still win 70 games, has not lost two in a row at any point during the season. They are 11-0 SU off a loss (9-2 ATS), winning by an average margin of 20 points per game due to holding the opposition to just 88.8 PPG. It doesn't get any more impresssive than that. Despite being short-handed, I expect the Spurs players to still be motivated by the fact they have not had a single losing streak all season and they will want the trend to continue.
Memphis has been an overachieving team all season long. Despite having the point differential of a 32-win team, here they are w/ a 41-32 SU mark and they almost certainly will be the 5-seed in the West. This is a team that has employed 27 different players on the roster this year, losing a league-high 244 games to injury. Marc Gasol (OFY), Zach Randolph and Mike Conley will be among those out tonight and that's likely a bigger net loss than what the Spurs will be without here. They just lost to San Antonio by six on Friday and while they haven't played since, consider that they also lost to the lowly Lakers the game before that.
Harry Bondi
DENVER -1.5 over Dallas
We went against the Mavs last night for another easy winner and we'll go back to the well tonight. As we wrote here yesterday, Dallas is free-falling. After last night's 133-111 loss to Sacramento, the team has now lost 10 of its last 12 games and the schedule-makers aren't doing it any favors. Not only do the Mavs have to come back tonight and play in the thin air of Denver, but this will also be their fourth road game in six nights. Denver isn't a short home favorite very often, but the Nuggets have been a profitable bet in this pointspread range, going 10-5 ATS the last three years as a home chalk of three points or less. They have also won four of the last five meetings between these two teams on this floor, and tonight they do it again.
Scott Rickenbach
Oakland at Towson
Pick: Oakland -6
Oakland got knocked out of the Horizon Tourney early and they certainly didn't want their season to end that way. Here, the Vegas 16 (although only 8 teams are in), is their chance for redemption. The Golden Grizzlies had won 12 of their last 15 games before getting upset by Wright State in their conference tourney. Oakland will now take advantage of facing an over-matched Towson team. The Tigers faced a much weaker schedule this season in comparison with Oakland. Also, the Golden Grizzlies went 7-1 ATS in non-conference action this season. Additionally, Oakland is 8-1 ATS the past three seasons after a game where they scored 60 points or less. What about after a game where they allowed 60 points or less? Long-term 16-5 ATS for the Golden Grizzlies in that situation including 7-2 ATS the past three seasons! As for the Tigers, they are 0-4 ATS in neutral court games this season. Towson had a losing record in road games this season while the Golden Grizzlies had a straight-up record of 13-7 in road games this season. The point is that the Grizz travel better than the Tigers do. Look for the better team (playing with plenty of motivation) to get the win and cover here.
Teddy Davis
Mavs vs. Nuggets
Play: Mavs +1½
Both teams are coming off double digit losses last night and both were on the road. The Mavs are getting good value here because of that and also since they have lost 3 in a row and 4 out of their last 5. However, the Mavs are still fighting for a playoff spot and are playing their fina game of the road trip so I expect a very big effort here from them considering those circumstances. The Nuggets had two prior wins before last night's game, but those were against the Sixers and Lakers 2 of the worst teams in the league. The Nuggets are a bad defensive team as they give up 100 points on a daily basis. I see the Mavs responding tonight as they are 11-4 ATS L15 games following a loss by 10 points or more
Ray Monohan
Mavs vs. Nuggets
Play: Mavs +1½
The Mavericks are in trouble now and need to turn things around real quickly here. Dallas has dropped 10 of it's last 12 and now finds themselves out of the playoffs, currently in 9th place. However, this is a team built on savvy veterans and they've been here before. This is almost a must win game for Dallas and behind Dirk Nowitzki, the task is certainly doable.
It also helps that Denver will likely be without Kenneth Faried, who has missed 6 straight contests. The Nuggets will have a tough time manning up Dirk, causing a huge mis match down low.
Some trends to consider. Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Northwest.
With the group Dallas has, they know what needs to get done here tonight. Look for them to come out really inspired, en route to a road win here.