Free Picks for Monday, March 6th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
RANGERS AT LIGHTNING
PLAY: RANGERS +100
Tampa Bay is getting some excellent work in goal from the new #1 Lightning goalie. Andrei Vasilevskiy seems to be stepping up his game with the Bishop trade. Nevertheless, the Lightning figure to have a tough time with the visiting Rangers tonight.
New York has been a monster on the road all season, actually playing considerably better away that at the Garden. Plus, the Rangers are tremendous off a loss. They’re 18-6 for the season in this situation, and if you want to fine tune it, they’re 11-2 when playing off a loss with one day rest.
Tampa looks like an energized team right now, but the Lightning are still only 11-20 off a win, and just 7-17 when that’s on zero or one day of rest. Put this one is the current season trend category if nothing else, but even if it’s only off those numbers, the Rangers at about even money are a nice value.
Scott Spreitzer
Pacers vs. Hornets
Play: Pacers +3½
Nice win for the Pacers last night, thanks in part to a big game from Paul George. Some like to play against teams in the second of back-to-back nights, but we feel the situation has been baked into the number. Charlotte, meanwhile, is in a tough spot, coming home following a seven game road trip that began before the all-star break. The Hornets had just one game off between the road trip and tonight's game. Charlotte, one of the worst shooting teams in the league, has dropped eight in a row at home ATS. Indiana is top-10 in the league in defensive FG percentage allowed and they're the much more accurate team at the other end of the floor.
Art Aronson
Miami vs. Cleveland
Play: Cleveland -8
Two nights ago we gave you a free play on the Miami Heat, underdogs at home to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Shortly before game time it was announced that Cleveland would rest its starters in the second game of the back to back and Miami would go on to roll to a big victory. The “situation” and the numbers favored the home side anyways in our opinion and we would have loved the play still even if LeBron James and company were in fact starting.
Yesterday we gave you a play on the Sacramento Kings, 9 point underdogs at home to the Utah Jazz. Sacramento would go on to win the game out right as well. If you didn’t get a chance to see the analysis for that winning selection, we believe it’s worth a quick read:
Yesterday we gave you a free play on the Miami Heat. Miami actually opened as a 2-point underdog, but early betting swung it the other way, with the Heat then becoming the 2-point fav. Then shortly after that it was announced that the starters would be sitting for the Cavs and the line ballooned to -8. Miami would roll to a big victory in the end, but we would have still liked the Heat at +2 if LeBron James and company had in fact suited up for the visitors, instead of being rested in the second game of the back-to-back. And that’s because the “situation” and the numbers were both working heavily in favor of Miami in our opinion. If you didn’t get a chance to read the analysis on the Heat winner, we think it’s worth a look right here:
If you’re into stats and trends like us, then you’ll definitely want to give the Heat a second look on Saturday night. Cleveland just won 135-130 in Atlanta last night. The Heat also played on Friday, but will be out to atone for a lacklustre 110-99 setback at Orlando. Note that Miami plays with revenge after falling 114-84 to the Cavs back on December 9th. Also note that Cleveland is just 3-8 ATS this year when playing on back-to-back days, while Miami is 9-2 ATS in the same position and 19-13 ATS in revenging a loss against an opponent. Consider the HEAT in this matchup.
The Jazz are the ones playing with revenge today, but note that they’re just 13-14 ATS this season in trying to revenge a loss against an opponet. Also note that Utah is just 13-16 ATS on the road and only 8-11 ATS after a win by ten points or more. The Kings may be without DeMarcus Cousins, but they won’t be going down without a fight, note that Sacramento is 8-2 ATS this year already after three or more consecutive SU losses and 2-0 ATS when playing with three or more days rest. Consider the Kings in this matchup.
Now here’s a great spot for Cleveland to bounce back in. It’s starters are rested and are ready to avenge the setback on Saturday and note, Miami is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after scoring 120 points or more, while the Cavs are 3-1 ATS this season after playing three consecutive road games.
We’re expecting James to give no mercy to his former team tonight. The situation and trends favor the CAVALIERS in our professional opinion.
Stephen Nover
Rockets vs. Spurs
Play: Rockets +4
Kevin Durant's injury has opened up the gate for San Antonio - and Houston. The Rockets are in the argument now for best team in the NBA. Houston has won eight of its last 10 games. James Harden has a league-best 49 double-doubles. The Rockets have more firepower on their bench adding Lou Williams to go with Eric Gordon. Those are the two leading scorers in the league among reserves. Unsung big man Clint Capela is healthy again and playing well. Houston is 2-0 this month crushing a pair of Western Conference contenders - the Clippers with Chris Paul on the road, 122-103, and Grizzlies at home, 123-108, two days ago. San Antonio has won seven in a row. However, the Spurs' current form doesn't match the Rockets. The Spurs' last three games were a one-point home win against the Pacers, an overtime road victory against the Pelicans and an overtime triumph versus the Timberwolves. San Antonio failed to cover any of those games. Yes, you can say the Rockets are stepping up going from playing good teams to an elite one. But the Spurs are stepping up even more in class. The Rockets are at least two levels higher than the Pacers, Pelicans and Timberwolves. The Rockets have covered 21 of their last 31 road games. They are the fresher team coming off two blowout victories. Houston is No. 2 in the NBA in scoring at 115.3 points, nine points more per game than what the Spurs average. San Antonio is 2-1 versus Houston this season. The Spurs' victories have been by an average of four points with the last occurring on Dec. 20. Houston has improved since then.
Rob Vinciletti
Bowling Green vs. Toledo
Play: Toledo -9½
Toledo has revenge tonight but won the first meeting easily and is 9-1 to the spread in their favored wins. The Rockets are 6-2 ats in this tourney vs a team off back to back losses. Bowling green is 0-11 ats in their last 11 dog losses and 0-9 ats in this tournament vs a team off a dog win. With Toledo 6-1 at home vs teams ranked outside the top 200 in the RPI Scale we lay the points here.
Marc Lawrence
Bucks vs. 76ers
Play: 76ers +3
Edges - Sixers: 4-0 ATS home with one day of rest versus non-division foe with one day of rest… Bucks: 0-7 ATS away with one day of rest versus foe with on day of rest. With the Sixers off a 30-point loss and Milwaukee off a 7-point home dog win, we recommend a 1* play on Philadelphia.
Brandon Shively
Miami vs. Cleveland
Play: Cleveland -8
The Cavs practically gave the Heat the last meeting in Miami a few days ago...No Lebron..No Kyrie..And it the result was a 28 point loss as the Cavs were playing on a tough back to back spot. Now, the Cavs are fresh and they have 2 days off after this game so I expect Lebron and Kyrie to give the home crowd a strong showing. After playing their previous 3 games on the road and with 3 more games upcoming on the road, this is the spot where I want to lay the points with Cleveland on their homecourt.
How good are the Heat? I feel the oddsmakers has begun to give them too much respect. They are only 5-4 straight up after their 12 games win streak was snapped. They have lost their last 2 road games and the talent is not there to carry them for the long haul.
The Cavs are 15-7 ATS since 2014 as a home favorite of 7 or more points when playing with same season revenge. They have won these games by an average of 16 points. When Cleveland is a home favorite is playing with revenge from a 20+ loss, they are 4-0 SU their L4 winning by 12,13, 21, and 30 points.
The Miami Heat are 7-15 ATS since 1996 as a road dog of 7+ points when facing a Eastern Conference team that is playing with same season revenge. The Heat made 18 three pointers against the Cavs on Saturday which was rare. They are 1-11 ATS since 2009 as a road dog after making 10 or more three pointers in their previous home win. Look for the revenge minded and fresh legs of the defending Champs to make a statement here in front of the home crowd
Jim Feist
Bowling Green at Toledo
Pick: Over
Can't see much defense in this one. Bowling Green is #10 in the MAC in scoring defense (80 ppg) and last in field goal shooting defense. Bowling Green is 10-3 over the total after a spread loss. Toledo defeated BGSU at home 85-73 but dropped a 104-100 decision on the road. Toledo is fifth in the MAC in scoring, 5-1 over the total against losing teams. The Rockets have outrebounded their opponent in eight of their last nine games and have a plus-8.4 rebounding margin in their last five contests. And the over is 4-0 the last four times they've met.
Ben Burns
Blazers vs. Wolves
Play: Wolves -4
I successfully played on the Blazers in each of their past two games. They came through for me with victories over the Thunder and over the Nets. However, both those games came at the Moda Center. When playing away from home, the Blazers often aren't the same team; they're 16-13 at Portland, compared to 10-22 on the road.
To the Blazers' credit, one of those 10 road wins did come here at Minnesota, on New Year's Day. However, the T-Wolves are arguably playing much better now than they were at that time. That 1/1 game was part of a 4-game slide which also included a loss against the 76'ers. Right now, however, the Wolves are on a 7-1 ATS surge, winning five of those games outright. The only teams which have defeated them since mid-Feb are the Cavs, Rockets and Spurs and two of those three losses came on the road.
While the Blazers are 3-6 SU/ATS off a double-digit win, the Wolves are 11-7 ATS their last 18 when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. Going back further finds them at a profitable 46-29 ATS their last 75 in that situation. Consider laying the small number with the revenge-minded home team.
Jack Jones
Miami vs. Cleveland
Play: Cleveland -8.5
This is a home-and-home situation tonight for the Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat. After basically giving the game away to the Heat on Saturday in a 92-120 loss as they rested Lebron James and Kyrie Irving, the Cavs will be out for revenge in the rematch in Cleveland Monday night.
Now the Cavs will have a healthy James and Irving back in the lineup, plus the services of newly-acquired Andrew Bogut. I expect them to roll to victory here as they are 26-6 in home games this season.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team is a perfect 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings, remarkably winning all nine games by 10 points or more. I think that trend continues here with the Cavs winning their fifth straight home meeting with the Heat by 10 points or more.
Cleveland is 14-3 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last three seasons. The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last five trips to Cleveland.
Chip Chirimbes
Pacers vs. Hornets
Play: Hornets -3½
For so many of the middle-of-the-roaders it's more where you play then who you play and and both these clubs fit the bill. Indiana enters Charlotte just 10-19 straight-up on the road while the 8-games under .500 Hornets are 16-13 straight-up at home. 'Where you play...not who.' The Hornets return home after their longest road trip of the season as they were 3-4 and are off a 112-102 win at Denver. Frank Kaminsky may be side-lined but it won't matter tonight.
Info Plays
Knicks vs. Magic
Play: Knicks +2
I'm taking the Knicks tonight. Here are some of the systems supporting our pick. Orlando is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after a division game this season. Orlando is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season.
Larry Ness
Miami vs. Cleveland
Play: Cleveland -9
The Cavs just played the Heat Saturday in Miami, losing 120-92. Of course, it needs to be noted that LBJ (25.9-8.1-8.9) and Kyrie Irving (25.0-5.9 APG) did not play, nor did Kevin Love (20.0-11.1) and J.R. Smith (8.6), who are both recovering from surgeries. It's expected that both James and Irving are expected to be in the lineup Monday, plus veteran center Andrew Bogut is slated to make his Cleveland debut in a reserve role.
Therefore, it's safe to say that the Heat will face a much different team than the one they saw Saturday at home. Goran Dragic (20.2 -6.0 APG) scored 23 and Hassan Whiteside (16.7-14.1) added 20 points and 13 rebounds against the Cavs. This duo has been instrumental in Miami's turnaround. The Heat stood at 11-30 in mid-January but a 109-103 home win over the Rockets on Jan 17th sparked a 13-game winning streak. The Heat have cooled some but after 18 wins in their last 22, Miami is just 1 1/2 games back of the Pistons for the East's No. 8 seed.
However, this sure seems like the WRONG place and time for the Heat. Cavs win and win HANDILY in this one.
Power Sports
Golden State vs. Atlanta
Pick: Over
Both teams played yesterday, failed to cover and stayed Under the total. The only difference is that the Warriors won their game, 112-105 in New York, while Atlanta lost SU at home to Indiana, 98-97. While a matchup of top five teams in defensive efficiency, I believe tonight's game will go Over the total.
For Golden State, this is a low total. Yes, they don't have Kevin Durant. But let us not forget that this was the top offense in the league each of the last two years before his arrival. They come into tonight averaging a league-best 117.5 points per game. Only Houston's games average more total points per game than the Dubs' 222.8. They've scored at least 108 pts in 16 of the last 17 games, Thursday's somwhat disastrous showing at Chicago being the exception.
Atlanta sees its scoring rise to 106.1 PPG at home. They also allow 106.0 PPG at home. So they're no strangers to high scoring games either. Yesterday's tilt with Indiana saw the scoring slow way down in the 4Q, resulting in the team's seventh Under in the last eight games. But the game before was a 135-130 final against Cleveland. Similarly, Golden State has now gone Under in five straight games. That's certainly atypical. Due to the recent rash of Unders, this number is now too low. Slight recommendation to the Over.