David Banks
Celtics at Clippers
Pick: Celtics +5
The Clippers finally have what appears to be a healthy lineup and it comes just in time as Los Angeles will host the Boston Celtics on Monday night. The Celtics have the second-best record in the Eastern Conference and the NBA’s second-leading scoring in diminutive guard Isaiah Thomas (29.7 ppg). Thomas may be just 5-foot-9, but his play has been gargantuan this season. Thomas is coming off a 33-point game in the Celtics 104-98 victory over Detroit last Sunday.
Thomas will have his hands full as he faces one of the best in the game in the Clippers Chris Paul who has returned to the lineup after suffering a thumb injury. Paul and a healthy Blake Griffin team with DeAndre Jordan to give the Clippers one of the NBA’s most athletic and dynamic trios. Griffin missed nearly four weeks of play this season after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery. He appears to be fine though. In a 124-121 overtime win over Charlotte last Sunday night, Griffin scored a season-high 43 points.
Griffin leads the Clips in scoring averaging 22.3 points a game. Paul adds 17.4 and 9.8 assists while Jordan scores 12.3 points and averages 13.7 rebounds per game. The difference maker might be the steady play of guard J.J. Redick who quietly contributes 15 points a game and provides key shots when Los Angeles needs them. The Celtics are not as good on the road as they are at TD Garden in Boston. The Celtics are 18-13 away from home and just 1-2 in their last three on the road.
Carmine Bianco
Chelsea at West Ham
Play: West Ham +1
Monday's Free Play is a play on home side West Ham getting a goal as they welcome EPL league leaders Chelsea to Olympic Stadium. These sides have met twice this season, once in EPL week 1 with Diego Costa scoring the winner in the 89th minute and once in the EFL quarterfinals with West Ham winning at home 2-1. West Ham with the exception of a 4-0 loss to ManCity have looked better as a unit since the departure of Payet to Marseille while Chelsea has shown some kinks in the armour away from home of late dropping points in 3 of 4. (1W 2D 1L). I'll lean to a tight one and take the +1 here.
Wunderdog
Celtics vs Clippers
Pick: Celtics +7
This is the second of a back-to-back spot for Boston, but this deep team is 43-19-1 ATS when playing on no days of rest. The Celtics have as many road wins as the Clippers have at home. The Celtics are on a 17-8-2 ATS run on the road, including 13-5-2 ATS away against a team with a winning home record. The L.A. Clippers are home and favored, but have lost four of six. They were favored in their last two defeats, as well. The Clippers are 4-9 ATS against the NBA Atlantic Division and the underdog is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
Jack Brayman
After hitting Northwestern with my free play on Sunday, let's move into the America East Conference for tonight's free winner.
This tournament, being played at host sites, is in the semifinals, and something tells me it will be a long night for Stony Brook, despite this game being played on its home court.
Albany has the better scoring defense, it has more wins on the season, it plays well away from home and it appears to be on a mission, and destined for the conference tournament championship.
The Great Danes, who are on an 11-4 ATS road run, have improved offensively of late, averaging 76.4 points per game in their last five contests. That's five points better than their season average.
Albany is also in double-revenge, as Stony Brook swept the regular-season series. Coming in having won two in a row and six of seven, I think the Great Danes are poised for the road win.
1* ALBANY
Brad Wilton
Monday night comp play is the Under in the Warriors-Hawks contest.
Golden State plays this one with Unders in each of their last 5 games contested while Atlanta has landed Under the total to a tune of 6-1-1 their last 8 times on the hardwood.
This will be the second of two meetings between the teams this year, and the first one resulted in a 105-100 Under played in Oakland all the way back in November.
Series numbers now show 2 of the last 3 games between the teams having held Under the posted price, and that includes the last series showdown at Philips Arena when the teams combined for 204-points with a total 226 1/2 points listed as the total by the oddsmakers in that meeting.
With Golden State playing their 5th road game over the past 8 nights, I can see Steve Kerr's team being a little tired for this one tonight before the Dubs head back home to face Boston on Wednesday night.
Look for the points to not be scored as easily as they usually are when Golden State is a little more "rested".
Warriors-Hawks Under the total.
3* GOLDEN STATE-ATLANTA UNDER
STEVE JANUS
Warriors vs. Hawks
Play: Hawks +5½
Play On - Any team (ATLANTA) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after 3 straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent. This system is 32-9 (78%) against the spread.
JOHN MARTIN
Memphis Grizzlies -12
Off back-to-back road losses at Dallas and Houston, the Memphis Grizzlies will be giving the Brooklyn Nets their full attention tonight to end this skid. The Grizzlies have owned the Nets in going 5-0 in the last five meetings with all five victories coming by at least 9 points. The Nets are in the midst of an 8-game road trip since the All-Star Break. They have gone 1-4 in their last five games on the trip with all four losses coming by 14 points or more. Brooklyn is 1-10 ATS when playing its 3rd game in 4 days this season. Memphis is 12-1 ATS in home games off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.
BRANDON LEE
Memphis Grizzlies -12
I have no problem laying this big number on Memphis at home against the Nets. Brooklyn is the worst team in the NBA and it's not really close. They are a mere 3-27 on the road this season and this is about as bad a spot as you can get for a team like the Nets. This will be their 6th straight road game since returning from the All-Star break and their 3rd in the last 4 days with the previous two coming at Utah and Portland. I just don't see Brooklyn showing up here and we know Memphis is going to come to play after losing their last two at Dallas and Houston. Grizzlies are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 home games off a road loss by 10 or more.
ANDREW GOLD
Knicks vs. Magic
Play: Magic -2
This is a game where I don't think the Knicks will be interested at all. They are coming off a big game with the Warriors yesterday and are playing a Magic team they just beat @ Orlando less than a week ago. There is zero motivation the Knicks have here. Magic 5-1 ATS L6 games playing on zero days rest. Knicks 2-9 ATS L11 games vs team with a winning percentage below 40. Knicks 1-7 ATS L8 game when allowing 100 points or more in previous game
BLACK WIDOW
Blazers vs. Wolves
Play: Wolves -3½
Bets against road underdogs, good offensive team scoring at least 99 points per game on the season against an opponent after leading their last two games by 10-plus points at the half are 57-22 ATS over the last 5 seasons. The Timberwolves are 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with all four wins coming by 13 points or more, and their two losses coming on the road at Houston and at San Antonio (in overtime).
DAVE PRICE
Milwaukee Bucks -3.5
The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks are coming on strong as they try and make a playoff push. They have gone 6-3 in their last nine games overall, including back-to-back impressive victories over the Clippers (112-101) and Raptors (101-94). Now they face a 76ers team that has hit the skids, going 1-4 in their last 5 games overall while losing two of their last three in blowout fashion to Miami (98-125) and Detroit (106-136). Bets on favorites (MILWAUKEE) - revenging 2 consecutive straight up losses to opponent as a favorite, off 2 or more consecutive home wins are 51-19 ATS since 1996. The Bucks have won 9 of their last 11 meetings with the 76ers.
TEDDY DAVIS
Pacers vs. Hornets
Play: Pacers +3½
The Hornets are being given a little to much credit here after coming off a long west coast road trip. This is one of the toughest situations in all of the NBA with the first game back. The Pacers have a ton of momentum going their way after beating the Hawks yesterday on a buzzer beater. This is the Pacers final game of their road trip so you know the effort will be here. Grab the points I think the Pacers win outright though
JIMMY BOYD
Pelicans +6½
New Orleans finally got their first win with Cousins and Davis playing together, as they went to LA and beat the Lakers 105-97. Davis and Cousins combined for 57 points and 24 rebounds, but it was the play of Holiday that has me excited, as he had really struggled to find his way after the Cousins deal. He had 20 points and 12 assists. The Pelicans are faced with playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set at Utah, but I don't see a letdown here with New Orleans working on a playoff push.
At the same time, the Jazz are also playing on no rest, as they played at Sacramento last night, a game that went into OT and had Hayward, Hill and Gobert all logging 40 or more minutes. Utah won 110-109, but were a massive 10-point favorite. The Jazz are just 1-3 ATS in their last 4 and I think this is a bit of a flat spot for them with a big road game at Houston on deck. Utah is just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games and 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 when playing on 0 days of rest.
SPORTS WAGERS
TAMPA BAY -½ +135 over N.Y. Rangers
Regulation only. It’s crunch time and the Rangers have only one win over their last four starts, which is very likely a preview of their playoff fate. New York’s only win over its last four games came against Boston last Thursday but chalk that victory up to nothing but pure luck, as the Rags were badly outplayed, out-chanced and outshot (33-21). Once again, the Rags had an alarming Corsi Against number of 63 against the Bruins, which is further proof that their victory was a minor miracle. New York was outscored 13-4 in its other three games over its current four-game stretch. Thing is, the Rags have been winning all year so three losses in four games is nothing to be alarmed about, right? Maybe not. This market puts emphasis on results and not performances and that is something we should be able to take advantage of. The Rangers are getting too much credit here because their having a great year in terms of results but not such a great year in terms of performance. We have maintained all season long that the Rangers’ W/L record is misleading. They continue to get outplayed almost every game. The Rangers spend way too much time in their own end and play too often without the puck to be considered anything but a pretender. Feeling a little battered with memories of playoff ghosts of the past starting to creep in again, the Rangers head to Florida for two games with their luck running on empty.
The Lightning are a short price here (-120) for several reasons. First, Tampa has 11 fewer wins than New York, not to mention 16 fewer points. That goes towards market perception that believes the Rangers are the superior team. They’re not. Secondly, Tampa is coming off narrow victories over Buffalo and Carolina both in OT, sandwiched between a 5-2 loss to the Penguins. That goes to its credibility or current form that doesn’t look great but a deeper look reveals that the Bolts are in great form. The Lightning have picked up points in 10 of their last 12 games. They have won five of their last six home games with only loss over that span being a 3-2 defeat to the hottest team in the league, the Calgary Flames and Tampa could have easily won that night. In its last five home victories, Tampa has outscored the opposition 21-7. The Lightning ran into a hot goaltender in Robin Lehner on Saturday night in Buffalo but still managed to win. They are now three points behind the Islanders for the final playoff spot and they have a hot and outstanding goaltender of their own working between the pipes. A hot and motivated home team with great goaltending and momentum is underpriced here and we’re on it. Lay the 20 cents if you wish because that’s good value but if we thought for a second that this game had a great chance to go to OT, we wouldn’t be betting it. Thus, we’re spotting the half puck.
SPORTS WAGERS
KENT STATE -9½ over Central Michigan
Central Michigan is a one-man show whose name is Marcus Keene. Keene is averaging almost 30 a game, which makes him the top scorer in the country so taking back these points with HIM on your side looks appealing but it’s not. You see, the Chippewas are in rough shape heading into the Mid-American Conference tournament. CMU has lost seven straight and only managed to cover just one of those games, an 88-80 loss at Western Michigan as a 10-point pooch. Keene provided most of his teams' offense with 37-points. While Keene is dynamic, there are four other guys on the court who are not. The Chippewas' three losses prior to covering against WMU were all by 20 points or more. Earlier this season, CMU went to Kent and beat the Golden Flashes 105-98. However, the game went into OT, where the Chippewa’s would shoot lights out on their way to the win. It was CMU's first win at the M.A.C Center in nearly 20 years and they’re going to have to shoot lights out again to cover this number because this is a squad that plays zero defense. It’s not unusual to see the Chips surrender 90-100 points in 40 minutes, which is why they lose by 20 or more so often. Relying on a hot shooting night to cover a margin in the post-season is risky business that we’re not interested in.
The Golden Flashes lost a tough one Friday night to rival Akron, but even a win would not have done much to improve Kent State’s seeding in this MAC Tournament. Prior to its most recent loss to the top seeded Zips, Kent State had won five straight and scored 70 points or more in each one of those victories. Unlike the Chips, the Flashes’ defense is a top priority and they play it well. Give a massive edge to the home team in defense and that alone makes this wager a high percentage play. The kicker, however, is rebounding, especially on the offensive glass, where Kent State is at its best. The Flashes are second in the entire country in offensive rebounding. That leads to second chance points which in turn leads to deflating the opposition or breaking their will. It can get very frustrating to stop a team and then give up a basket on an offensive board. Now put that frustrated team on the road and times the second chance points by a bundle and you start to get a clear picture of what is likely to transpire here. Despite the big point producer that the Chips have on their side, there is a reason they are a low seed in a weak mid-major and there is also a reason they lose so often by double digits. Don’t ignore that.