DAVE COKIN
RAYS BLUE JAYS
PLAY: RAYS +115
Good matchup of southpaws on Monday evening as the Rays and Blue Jays open a series at Toronto. Drew Smyly throws for Tampa Bay, while red hot J.A. Happ will take the mound for the hosts.
Smyly got knocked around in his most recent start, but the Rays lefty has pitched some outstanding baseball and I expect a good rebound here, even against a potent Toronto lineup. As for Happ, he’s on one of the most surprising runs I can ever recall. Happ has been nothing short of sensational going back to the latter stages of the 2015 campaign. I never thought of him as more than a back of the rotation starter, but Happ is proving me very wrong on that count right now.
This is not the ideal scheduling spot for the Rays. They really blew one on Sunday, coughing up a nice lead against Oakland and I thought Kevin Cash kind of mismanaged his bullpen in the process. The Rays have to put that loss behind them in a hurry, as it’s the type that can sometimes kick off a losing streak.
But even if this is not a perfect scenario for Tampa Bay, I definitely want to make a play against the Blue Jays tonight. What happened on Sunday as the Jays brawled with the Rangers is very much a potential distraction, and I look at Toronto as a prime fade tonight from that standpoint.
Beyond that, Smyly-Happ is a tossup on my numbers, and while I don’t trust the Rays pen much, I have even less faith in the Jays relief corps, which has been mostly horrible.
Between the math I use and the scheduling dynamics, I see this as a game that Tampa Bay should have a good chance to win. Add in the plus money, and I’ve got little problem taking my shot with the Rays tonight.
Sleepyj
Detroit -1.5 +129
I think this line gets bet into rather heavy for this one..We should attack this one ASAP...I'll lay the Rl here with the Tigers and Zimmerman...He has been rather solid, but his last two outings have been average...2 losses in a row and I'm sure he wants to redeem himself here at home...Tigers are hitting much better as a team now and the Twins are not that scary at all..Twins on the road are 4-16 and facing the Tiger ans Zimmerman is going to be a tall task....Tigers at home have been down right horrible, but I feel it's time they turned it around in Detroit..Winners of only 5 of 14 doesn't seem right..We are getting value IMO in this number..I wouldn't be surprised to see this moved a full 20 cents here....Tigers had a rough go at things the last 13 games..They only managed to win 2 games and they got swept twice in 2 of the last 4 series..Take note though who they played..Some decent teams with deep lineups that had a hot hand...I think this home stand for the Tigers is critical they get off to a winning start...The season can get out of control, or they hold it together and gain some ground here facing 3 clubs at home that are rather suspect...I think the combination of motivation here with Zimmerman and the Tigers lineup will pay off today for us...Berrios for the Twins gets the call and he has been tough to watch at times..His control needs to be on point and he needs to attack the Tigers lineup...He can have walk issues and he can give up hits in bunches..My gut feeling is his exit here comes before the 5th inning...He hasn;t lasted long in games and mostly due to his struggles throwing strikes in bunches...He will fall behind in counts all day and the hitters will tee of here for the Tigers....I rated this a strong 2** play...My strongest MLB play for today even at -1.5.
Rob Vinciletti
Braves vs. Pirates
Play: Pirates -170
The Pirates are off a solid road win over the Cubs getting 8 innings from G. Cole. The Pirates are 18-0 at home off a game where their starter went 8+ innings. They qualify in a solid 80% system that pertains to home teams off a road dog win. The Braves are 2-9 vs leftys and 0-4 on Mondays. Perez starts for the Braves and he has a 5.58 era vs the Pirates and a 6.24 road era. Niese has won his last three vs the Braves. Play on the Pirate.
Stephen Nover
Reds vs. Indians
Play: Reds +144
The Cincinnati Reds, with their merry band of pyromaniacs in the bullpen, are a tough team to back especially on the road with a 3-12 mark.
But this is a good value spot for the Reds in this interleague matchup against in-state rival Cleveland. The .500 Indians are nothing special and have Cody Anderson starting.
It's not exactly a coincidence that Cleveland has lost every time Anderson has appeared in a game this season. That mark is 0-6. Anderson's ERA stands at 7.31. He was last seen this past Wednesday in relief giving up a walk-off two-run homer to Marwin Gonzalez during a 16-inning loss to Houston. That kept Anderson's string of allowing at least one home run in every game he's pitched this year.
Anderson was more than decent as a rookie last season going 7-3 with a 3.05 ERA. Opponents have adjusted. Anderson hasn't. A trip to the minors hasn't seemed to cure his problems. Anderson has been terrible, too, during interleague action with an 0-2 mark and 5.49 ERA in four career starts. He's made one interleague start this season. That didn't go well either as the Mets ripped him for five runs on nine hits, including three homers, in 4 2/3 innings on April 15.
Cincinnati starter John Lamb is intriguing. Back in 2010, Lamb was Kansas City's top pitching prospect. His career, though, was set back by Tommy John surgery. He was part of the Reds' haul when they traded Johnny Cueto to the Royals last year. Lamb pitched less than 50 inning for the Reds going 1-5 with a 5.80 ERA. He also had 58 strikeouts, though.
The high strikeout number and Lamb being a lefty in the National League make him someone worth monitoring. So after seeing Lamb post a 1.80 ERA in his first two starts after being activated earlier this month following off-season back surgery, I went all in on the 25-year-old picking him up in both of my National League Rotisserie leagues. (Yes, I play Rotisserie not fantasy baseball).
Certainly there is a wild-card element to Lamb especially since he last pitched eight days ago after spraining his left thumb. The injury was minor and Lamb is fully cleared to pitch today. The Indians are the first American League team to face Lamb.
The Indians just lost Michael Brantley again. He was placed on the DL with shoulder inflammation. The Indians are below average in scoring and rank third-from-the-bottom in home runs. So Lamb isn't exactly going against the '27 Yankees.
Cleveland last went against a southpaw starter on April 29. The Indians are 3-6 versus lefties this year. If you discount the Indians' performance against White Sox southpaw John Danks, who has since been released and is a free agent, Cleveland has scored 19 runs in eight games versus lefty starters. That's an average of 2.3 runs a game.
Marc Lawrence
Tampa Bay at Toronto
Play: Toronto -123
Edges - Blue Jays: J.A. Happ 5-0 all team starts this season, including 3-0 with 2.25 ERA and 1.25 WHIP at home. Rays: Drew Smyly 3–8 away career team starts during May, including 0-5 the last five; and 0-2 last last two starts in this series. With Tampa Bay 0-4 the last four away games in this series, we recommend a 1* play on Toronto.
Scott Spreitzer
Red Sox vs. Royals
Play: Red Sox -114
Boston has won five of their last seven visits to Kauffman Stadium and will face a struggling Royals' rotation. One of the starters having problems through the first six weeks of the campaign is Yordano Ventura. The KC righty has a low strikeout rate, while handing out free passes galore. Ventura has walked 28 batters in 37 innings on the season, including 14 in his last three starts, spanning just 14 innings of work. Ventura has been smacked for am 8.36 ERA & 2.07 WHIP in his last three outings. I expect his troubles to continue against the red-hot Boston bats. The Sox will counter with Rick Porcello, who is firing some of his best stuff in 2016. Porcello owns a 3.11 ERA on the season, to go along with a 0.99 WHIP, and a .212 BAA. And while he faces a KC offense ranked in the bottom-third in MLB in OBP and OPS, Ventura will face a Boston offense that ranks 1st in team batting average and OPS, and second only to the Cubs in OBP. Boston has won five straight against pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher and they're on a 6-1 run when Porcello toes the rubber. Meanwhile, the defending champs are having a tough time stringing together wins, having lost seven in a row following a win.
Larry Ness
Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
Cincinnati has lost 13 of its last 14 games at Cleveland.
The battle of Ohio kicks off at 6:10 ET when the Cincinnati Reds visit the Cleveland Indians for the first of a four-game, home-and-home series. The intrastate rivals will play two in Cleveland before heading to Cincinnati for two more on Wednesday to complete the interleague series. The Indians have dropped back-to-back series and are coming off two straight losses to the struggling Minnesota Twins (10-26) in which they totaled just four runs. Cleveland went 0-for-4 with runners in scoring position and left nine men on base in Sunday’s 5-1 loss. The Reds snapped a three-game slide with a 9-4 victory at Philadelphia, upping their road record to 3-12 (tied with the Twins, who are 4-16, as a MLB-worst).
The Indians will hand the ball to Cody Anderson (0-3, 7.31 ERA), who was sent down to the minors after going 0-1 with a 7.65 ERA in his first four starts. He returned to “the bigs”and lost his first start back (7-0 vs KC on May 5), before also losing in relief Wednesday by allowing Marwin Gonzalez's winning two-run homer over 3.1 innings in a 5-3, 16-inning loss at Houston. It’s HARDLY good news that the Indians have lost all six games he has appeared in (0-5 in starts). "Whenever you are going through things like this, you've just got to focus on keeping the ball down and trusting your defense and not try to do too much," Anderson said. He is 0-2 with a 5.49 ERA in four career interleague starts entering his first-ever start vs the Reds.
As for the Reds, they will give the ball to John Lamb (0-0, 1.80 ERA), who was removed from a start against Milwaukee on May 8 with a bruised thumb and got some extra time to rest due to a rainout during the week. The 25-year-old has allowed a total of only two runs on eight hits in 10 innings over two starts while striking out seven. Lamb, who made his major-league debut after arriving in a trade last summer from Kansas City, has never faced an American League opponent and will be making just his third start of 2016 after being activated earlier this month following back surgery.
It’s hard to make a strong case for Anderson but consider the following. The Reds have lost 10 of Lamb’s 12 career starts (Lamb has posted a 5.13 ERA in them) plus Cincinnati has lost 13 of its last 14 games at Cleveland. Home team is the play.
Jesse Schule
Oklahoma City vs. Golden State
Play: Golden State -7
The Oklahoma City Thunder shocked everyone with a stunning upset win in their second round series versus San Antonio. As impressive as they have looked, I still think they're going to be in way over their heads in the Western Conference Final. The Warriors had some ups and downs in their series versus Portland, but in the end they were able to overcome slow starts, closing out the Blazers in five games. Steph Curry returned to action in Game 4, and he scored 40 points (a record 17 in overtime) en route to a 132-125 victory. He made his first three-pointer in the third quarter, and he did the bulk of his scoring after that. The Warriors are looking for a second consecutive title after finishing with the best all time record in the NBA this season. They were expected to beat Portland, so there's no reason to expect a let down. That's not the case for the Thunder, who came out flat in Game 1 against the Spurs losing 124-92. The Thunder lost both meetings at Golden State during the regular season by a combined 22 points. They are likely to struggle here in Game 1.
Jim Feist
New York at Arizona
Pick: Over
IL action here on Monday has the Yankees travelling cross country to play the D'Backs. The Yankees not having the kind of season they have become expectant to with their 16-20 record and last place standing in the AL East. The Yanks have won two straight though and seven of 10, so things may be turning around. The Yankees too two of three from the White Sox. The Yankees have decided to go with Chad Green tonight, who will make his Major League debut. Green came over in a trade with the Tigers. Robbie Ray will start for the D'backs with a 1-2 record and 4.84 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. Ray has had control issues, throwing too many pitches early and thus not making it out of the fifth inning in any of his last four starts. Arizona is last in the NL West and has lost five straight. The Yankees have gone OVER in seven of their last 10 IL games and 6-1 O/U in their last seven games overall. I look for this one to go over with Green making his MLB debut and Ray not pitching very consistent.
Steve Janus
Oakland A's 118
Play On - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (OAKLAND) - very bad AL offensive team (4.2 or less runs/game) against a team with a below avg. bullpen (ERA 4.50 or more), starting a pitcher who was rocked for 7 or more runs last outing. This system is 35-12 (75%) against the money line since 1997.
Jeff Alexander
Tampa Bay Rays +116
Toronto's has gone 5-2 in J.A. Happ's 7 starts this season, but both of those defeats have come against the Rays. A big reason for that is Tampa Bay has hit left-handed starters well. The Rays are scoring 4.9 runs/game and hitting .250 as a team vs left-handed starters, compared to 3.7 runs/game and a .221 average overall. Tampa Bay will send out Drew Smyly, who allowed 6 runs on 10 hits in 5 innings during his last start at Seattle. That could be a sign for concern, but you have to go back to 2014 to find the last time that Smyly allowed more than 3 earned runs in consecutive starts. Smyly also has a very respectable 3.08 ERA and 0.607 WHIP in 4 career starts against the Blue Jays.
Brandon Lee
Dodgers -1.5 +115
The Dodgers are worth a look on the run line Monday at home against the Angels, who have gone just 1-7 in interleague games so far this season. The Dodgers also have a huge advantage on the mound with Kenta Maeda facing off against Matt Shoemaker. Maeda comes in with a 2.30 ERA and 1.023 WHIP in 7 starts and is poised for a strong outing after a poor showing against the Mets in his last start. Shoemaker on the other hand is 1-5 with a 9.12 ERA and 1.906 WHIP in 6 starts. Angels have to be seriously considering replacing him in the rotation, as he's simply been awful to this point. Shoemaker hasn't even made it past the 4th inning in any of his last 3 starts.
Jimmy Boyd
Red Sox/Royals Under 8
I really like the value here on the total in Monday's series opener between the Red Sox and Royals. The fact that Boston comes in scoring 6.0 runs/game forces oddsmakers to inflate their totals and I definitely feel that's the case here. Winds will be blowing straight in from right field at close to 15 mph and temperatures are in the low 50's. Not to mention we have a couple of starters in prime spots.
The Red Sox will send out Rick Porcello, who has been one of the biggest surprises early on in 2016. Porcello is 6-1 with a 3.11 ERA and 0.993 WHIP in 7 starts. He's pitched at least 6 innings in all 7 starts and only once has he allowed more than 3 earned runs. As for the Royals, they counter with Yordano Ventura. His overall numbers aren't great, but he's 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.294 WHIP in 3 home starts.
UNDER is 13-4 in the Royals 17 home games this season and 12-2 in Porcello's last 14 road starts against an AL team that is scoring 4.2 or less runs/game.
Joseph D'Amico
Tampa Bay at Toronto
Play: Toronto -119
Tampa Bay begins a 9-game road trip today. The Rays are just 6-8 as a visitor this season and have Drew Smyly on the hill. The LH is 1-4 with an ERA of 3.63 on the campaign and has been terrorized by Josh Donaldson, getting tagged for 3 HR's and allowing the Blue Jay to go 7-for-14 against him. Toronto gives JA Happ the nod. The LH is 5-0 with a 2.05 record and has yielded 3 runs or less in 17 consecutive turns. The Rays are 0-4 their L4 games at the Blue Jays, 1-4 their L5 vs. LH starters, and 1-5 their L6 overall. The Blue Jay's are 4-1 their L5 during Game 1 of a series, 5-2 their L7 following a loss, and 5-0 in Happ's L5 home starts.
Brandon Shively
Angels vs. Dodgers
Pick: Dodgers -1.5
While this is not a direct fade on Matt Shoemaker for the Angels, his inability to make it past the 4th inning along with numerous other issues the right handed pitcher has encountered this season needs to be considered.
Shoemaker is 1-5 on the season with a 1.91 WHIP and a 9.212 ERA. While these numbers figure to come down a bit, the fact remains that ALL five of his losses this season have come by 3 or more runs. Shoemaker has a flyball/groundball rate of 2:1. He is giving up 1.5 hits per inning. With a 1.91 WHIP, that means he is putting almost 2 runners on base per inning. I’ll give him five innings tonight which would average to put 10 Dodger base runners on base. I have to then think the Dodgers manufacture at least 4 runners across the plate considering Shoemaker’s LOB% is only 54.4%, which is the 3rd worst in the Majors right now of starting pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched. His groundball percentage is also 6th worst in the Majors with pitchers that have at least 20 IP.
The Dodgers will call on the Japanese phenom, Kenta Maeda, who has been stellar this season. While the Dodgers have lost his last three starts, it was more of a fact of lack of run support (2.6 rpg). However, the Dodgers bats have finally woken up and that’s why I am confident they win this game by two or more runs against the bottom tier pitcher like Shoemaker. Maeda is more of a groundball pitcher that has a full array of pitches to stifle the Angels lineup as they have never seen him before.
Past History: The Dodgers swept the Angels last year at home, winning all games by two runs or more as a home favorite of -130 or more, they are 4-0 at home their last four vs. the Angels.
Interleague Play: The Dodgers are 4-0 their last four interleague home games. The Angels are 2-12 in their last 14 interleague games, including 1-5 on the road. The Dodgers are 8-1 their last nine overall vs. the Angels
Dating back to last season, the Angels are only 7-13 their last 20 games as a road dog of +125 or more and five of those wins came against the Mariners and Athletics.