Scott Rickenbach
Texas at Oakland
Pick: Under
Both these teams have been trending "over" recently and neither one of these starting pitchers tonight has produced impressive numbers so far this season. However, I expect a tight, low-scoring battle in a pitcher-friendly ballpark Monday night. One of the keys is that I don't expect the Rangers to have much left in the tank after that highly emotional win over the Blue Jays yesterday. Of course the Jays had knocked Texas out of the post-season last fall and it was an emotionally charged series that will most likely leave the Rangers a little "flat" on Monday. The under is 11-6 in Texas road games this season. The past three seasons combined, the under is 40-26 in Rangers road games when the posted total is 8 or 8.5 runs. With this total having moved up to an 8.5 this morning, there is even more line value with this under. The under is also 5-1 this season in Oakland's home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Like the Rangers, the A's are also off of a win yesterday and the under is 10-5 this season in Athletics games when they are off of a win. Oakland's Sean Manaea is off of an ugly road start at Boston but previously had allowed only 11 hits in his last 10 innings at home and he has been victimized by big hits. Look for him to enjoy success against an emotionally "spent" Rangers lineup that has never faced him. As for Texas starter Derek Holland, he held the A's to 1 earned run on 4 hits in 6+ innings in his last start in Oakland. After back to back rough starts, look for Holland to bounce back as he had allowed 3 earned runs or less in each of his first five starts this season and Oakland is averaging just 3 runs per game at home this season.
Wunderdog
Texas @ Oakland
Pick: Texas +114
Texas is on a tear, winning seven of nine. They won five of those games as a dog, including the last two contests, winning 6-5 and 7-6 as dogs of +123 and +155. Why are oddsmakers giving this team so little respect? The Texas offense is sixth in baseball in runs scored, #11 in slugging, and fifth in steals. Starter Derek Holland has been better on the road than at home the last three years and is 5-4 with a 3.26 ERA in 18 appearances (13 starts) versus the Athletics. The Rangers are 35-17 when Holland faces the AL West, plus the team is 28-10 after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. The Athletics are returning home after a dismal 3-6 road trip. Starter Sean Manaea (11.37 ERA) is winless and was blasted for eight runs and 10 hits in a 13-5 loss in Boston on Tuesday. Manaea is allowing a .382 batting average against! Oakland is 5-11 at home, part of an 8-22 run at home. The Athletics are also 7-20 against a team with a winning record, plus 19-46 against a southpaw starter.
Power Sports
Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians
Pick: Cleveland Indians
Sure, the Indians have yet to win a game this season that's been started by Cody Anderson (0-5) and for good reason. The pitcher has posted woeful numbers so far (7.56 ERA, 1.799 WHIP) and I admit that's a problem. But if Cleveland can't beat Cincinnati tonight, then they have bigger problems beyond just Anderson.
The Reds are coming off a win Sunday and that's significant. It's significant because ever since a surprising 5-1 start to the season, they have posted win streaks just twice, one of two games and another of three. Overall, they are 10-21 their last 31 games and that includes a 3-12 road record. The road is a place that starter John Lamb has yet to work this season, so I am expect him to struggle here after two relatively decent showings at Great American Ballpark. Cincinnati is being outscored by 2.4 runs per game away from home this season.
Cleveland beat Cincinnati five of the six times they played this season and homefield advantage always seems to matter a little more in Interleague Play. The Tribe should feel ashamed after dumping two of three games to the Twins over the weekend, so this series is a shot at atonement. I realize Anderson's past showings don't offer a ton of promise, but tonight is a situation tailor-made for his 1st win of the season.
Big Al
New York vs. Arizona
Pick: New York
There's perhaps no better team in the AL for a young starter to make his MLB debut with than the Yankees. With the recent return of closer Aroldis Chapman, the Yanks now boast perhaps the deadliest bullpen threesome we've seen in quite some time in RH Dellin Betances, LH Andrew Miller, and RH Chapman. If a starter on this team can get through six innings with the lead, then there's a VERY good chance that those three aces will slam the door and earn that starter a W. And since most young starters are limited to between five and six innings - depending on pitch count - that would seem to be an ideal situation for 24-year-old Chad Green who is set to make his debut tonight in Arizona. Green has posted a 1.32 ERA in seven starts at AAA so far in 2016, so it would appear that he's ready for this milestone, even if it's against a pretty good offense in what is generally considered a hitters' park. The D-Backs are 4-10 in LH Robbie Ray's last 14 home starts. The Yanks are 6-1 in their last seven inter-league games.
Cajun Sports
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays -123
The Blue Jays return home after a six-game road swing while their opponent was home briefly for a three-game set before traveling north of the border for this three-game series against the Blue Jays. The Rays played Oakland over the weekend which came on the heels of a six-game road trip that saw them play the LA Angels and Seattle Mariners they now travel again on a ten-game road trip beginning tonight in Toronto. If the math is correct that is sixteen road games with a three-game weekend set in between. Fatigue will be a factor we will keep an eye on this Tampa Bay Rays team over the next week we should find a few profitable situations including tonight. Tampa will send Drew Smyly to the bump with his 1-4 SU record and an ERA of 3.63. The Jays will counter with J.A. Happ who is 5-0 SU with an ERA of 2.05 on the season. We note the Rays are 7-24 SU as an underdog coming off a loss in which they were favored. Tampa Bay is 20-45 SU when playing on the road coming off a SU home loss in their last game. With solid support on the bump and at the plate we will lay the chalk with the Jays as they get the win in Game One on Monday night.
Jack Jones
Texas Rangers +115
The brawl with the Toronto Blue Jays yesterday will certainly rally the Texas clubhouse moving forward. This is now a much closer-knit team and I look for it to pay results right away the day after with Game 1 of this series against the Oakland A's.
The Rangers should not be underdogs today against the A's, who send the awful Sean Manaea to the mound. Manaea is 0-1 with an 11.37 ERA and 2.052 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 16 earned runs and 26 base runners in 12 2/3 innings.
Derek Holland hasn't gotten off to the best start, either, but he has dominated the A's in the past. Indeed, Holland is 5-3 with a 3.27 ERA in 13 career starts against Oakland. The Rangers are 9-4 in those 13 starts.
The Rangers are 28-10 in their last 38 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Texas is 27-12 in Holland's last 39 starts when working on 5 days of rest. The A's are 3-10 in their last 13 games overall. Oakland is 0-7 in its last seven Monday games. The A's are 19-46 in their last 65 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Bruce Marshall
Red Sox/Royals Over 7.5
Slowing down the rampaging Red Sox offense might be a chore for the Royals' Yordano Ventura, who has struggled a bit this season, giving up 13 runs and striking out just five over his last three starts. The Bosox continued their onslaught on Sunday by scoring another 10 runs vs. the Astros, giving them five double-digit scoring games in their last seven, all "over" in the process. Those games were all at Fenway Park, but until the Bosox bats cool down, "over" remains in play.
Chris Jordan
I told you in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals I was playing the Tampa Bay Lightning, and sure enough the underdog got there. Guess what, I'm back on them here. After riding the revamped Pittsburgh Penguins in their previous series, I think they're in big trouble after seeing how Game 1 went down.
The speedy Lightning, who are dying to get back to the Stanley Cup Finals, looked much more fresh, and much more hungry. The Lightning earned a sweep of their three-game season series with Pittsburgh, and I think because they were much more rested and ready for Game 1 of this series, they stole the momentum and exerted themselves as the much better team.
As I stated the other day, the road team needs this win, to steal momentum early. And I think the Lightning now have the confidence and talent to swipe this second game, as the Penguins came into this series after wrapping up a 12-day marathon against rival Washington last Tuesday night, in overtime of Game 6.
So peep this, since the start of that Game 6, the Penguins led 3-0, lost their lead, won in overtime, celebrated, regrouped and then were humiliated by a rested Tampa Bay team that realistically can skate circles around any weary team, especially one that it dominated in the postseason.
Tampa Bay raced through the first two rounds of the playoffs, dropping one game each to Detroit and the New York Islanders. The Lightning played 26 playoff games last spring, and learned their lesson, as the heavy workload took a toll in the Stanley Cup final, where the Lightning lost to the Chicago Blackhawks in six games.
Now, with a chance to take a 2-0 lead back home, I think this is great spot to take a great price. Play the underdog Lightning here.
2* LIGHTNING
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 58-42 run with free picks: Atlanta (+165) at PITTSBURGH
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Atlanta Braves are in Steeltown for a series with the Pittsburgh Pirates, and though the visitors arrive on a 2-8 slide, I like their chances to steal this game on the road. Atlanta is 2-17 at home, so it has seen its better days on the highway. Be sure you're listing both Williams Perez and Jonathon Niese.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Perez is my No. 1 key in this game, as he arrives at PNC park after an outstanding performance in his last outing, against the Phillies. He needed a mere 85 pitches to get through eight innings, while limiting Philly to two hits and one run in a 5-1 victory. His control was phenomenal, as Perez threw 63 strikes - 74 percent of his total pitches thrown.
BOTTOM LINE is - For the Bucs, they're handing the ball to Niese, who is mired in a three-start winless stretch in which he's allowed 14 earned runs over 16-2/3 innings after beginning the season 3-0. I don't know why he is struggling like he is, but this is bad spot for him, against a team he may mentally take too lightly, and will, in turn, struggle against.
5* BRAVES
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the Marlins over the Phillies.
Philly just took 2 of 3 from Miami down in the Sunshine State earlier this month, but the Marlins traveled up I-95 into the City of Brotherly Love fresh off wins over division-leader Washington on both Saturday and Sunday.
Adam Conley has won 2 of his last 3 starts while sporting an ERA of just 2.12 in those efforts.
Conley works against Jerad Eickhoff who has been scuffling on the mound of late. Eickhoff has lost his last 4 starts, and is now 1-5 on the year with a 4.43 ERA.
Both teams are playing better than expected this season, and this shapes up to be another hotly-contested division series. Tonight I support the visiting favorite to open this three game set with the victory.
Marlins the call.
3* MIAMI
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is on the Toronto Blue Jays, minus the cheap price against the Tampa Bay Rays. Always love value with the Jays at home, and this is certainly is value with J.A. Happ taking on Drew Smyly.
Happ comes into this start boasting the second-best ERA (1.68) in the Major Leagues since Aug. 14 of last season. Quite a turnaround for a guy who has seen his career flounder ever since being traded from the Phillies, in the exchange that brought Roy Oswalt in from Houston. Happ has been a journeyman since, but may have finally found a home in Toronto. The left-hander has allowed three runs or fewer in 17 consecutive outings, the second-longest streak in baseball.
Meanwhile, Smyly didn't have his best stuff last week, but did compete Tuesday, when he took the loss versus Seattle. With a deceptive fastball, Smyly tends to jump ahead of hitters in a lot of counts, the problem is, Rogers Centre is a hitter's park, and the Jays love to go deep at home.
I like Toronto, the pitching matchup and the Jays' lineup to thrive.
5* BLUE JAYS
Brad Wilton
Something has to give tonight when Boston - 7 in a row Over the total - plays Kansas City - 3 straight Under the total - this evening in KC.
The Red Sox were quite comfy swinging away in their home park for the past 7 games, but now they are on the road, and I look for the pitching to cool off the bats on both sides tonight.
For Boston, Rick Porcello enters at 6-1 with an ERA just a little over 3. The Under is 2-1-1 in his last 4 starts.
Kansas City will go with Yordano Ventura who is a rock-solid 2-0 with a 2.65 in his pair of starts at home for the season.
Going to look for the Sox streak of 6 in a row Over to come to a halt tonight.
Boston-Kansas City to play an Under to open their series here on Monday night.
1* BOSTON-KANSAS CITY UNDER
Martin Griffiths
Twins vs. Tigers
Play:Tigers -1½
I like the look of Detroit this evening and expect them to win this game by at least two runs.
The Twins have improved their record on the road with two consecutive wins but I can see that streak coming an end against a Detroit outfit that need to improve on their own poor home record.
This game for me is about the respective pitchers, Detroit start with Jordan Zimmermann who leads the American League with a 1.50 ERA, albeit he has lost his last two, while Minnesota start with Jose Berrios, who has yet to see a sixth innings, though in all fairness this will be only his fourth career start.
I see Zimmermann getting back to winning ways tonight, he was named the American League Pitcher of the Month for April for a reason, and against this Minnesota line up I do see him putting in some strong figures this evening.
Take Detroit to restrict Minnesota and get the win by at least two runs.
Dave Price
Boston Red Sox -120
Rick Porcello has been the best starter for the Boston Red Sox this season. He has gone 6-1 with a 3.11 ERA and 0.993 WHIP in seven starts this year with 46 strikeouts in 46 1/3 innings. The Red Sox come into this series as one of the hottest teams in baseball with a 7-1 record in their last eight games. They are simply hitting the cover off the ball right now, scoring at least 5 runs in eight straight. That should continue against Yordano Ventura, who is 3-2 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.568 WHIP in 7 starts, including 1-2 with an 8.36 ERA and 2.071 WHIP in his last three. Ventura is 1-2 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.673 WHIP in three lifetime starts against the Red Sox.
SPORTS WAGERS
Atlanta (5 innings) +165
The Pirates have four wins in their past 12 games and they were nearly no-hit by Jon Lester yesterday but managed to squeeze out a 2-1 victory. The Pirates have lost Jonathan Niese’s last two starts. In his two starts before that they won but the scores were 9-8 and 8-7. Niese has surrendered 36 hits over his past 22 innings and has also walked 10 batters over that same span. That would be 46 baserunners over his last 22 innings. In other words, Dude has been in a crisis almost every inning he’s pitched since April 22. Niese brings a 1.60 WHIP into this start with a BB/K split of 15/29 in 40 frames. He also brings a 6% swing and miss rate over his last five starts with 13 walks and 17 K’s over 29 frames. Perpetually hittable, pitchers like Jonathan Niese cannot be priced in this range, even if the game was final. Niese was fringe in his prime and he’s way past that now. Since this is an attack on Niese, we’ll play it in five frames.
After his April 19th start, his third of the season, Williams Perez was sent down to the minors to work on some stuff. Perez had failed to finish even five innings in any of his three starts and had more strikeouts than walks so a demotion was inevitable. Five days ago on May 11, Perez was recalled to face the Phillies and he threw a 85-pitch, eight-inning, two-hit gem against them. He did not walk a single batter. One game does not count for much but it’s worth noting that Perez tossed a complete-game shutout in his last start in the minors before being recalled. Perez does not overpower hitters but when he’s on he works in the strike zone and creates lots of groundball outs. Perez throws a low 90s mph fastball and an above-average curveball and change-up. He currently lacks swing-and-miss stuff, so he relies heavily on a pitch-to-contact approach. That approach will not work if he can’t throw strikes and that’s the key here, as it’s virtually impossible for that plan of attack to flourish with poor control. Perez induces a ton of groundballs (60% groundball rate) when he’s throwing strikes. If he’s not throwing strikes, he’ll get hit hard but it’s something we’re willing to roll the dice on because he’s reined in his control over his past two starts. Perez can throw strikes but lost his aggressiveness at this level so hopefully he got that back. Incidentally, the Braves are 7-10 on the road and they have actually won three of Perez’s four starts this season. Win, lose or draw, the value here is too good to pass up on.
Cincinnati +140 over CLEVELAND
Formerly a standout prospect in the Royals organization before he succumbed to elbow problems, the Reds acquired lefty John Lamb in July of 2015. He then started 10 games with Cincinnati, posting a 5.80 ERA with 10.5 K’s/9. After undergoing back surgery in December 2015, Lamb had a slight delay in his recovery and wasn’t able to compete for an Opening Day rotation slot. Now healthy, he could stick in the rotation for the foreseeable future. Lamb’s velocity is all the way back from his elbow concerns in 2011 and 2012 and sits in the 90-92 mph range. He can touch 95 mph on occasion, but he relies heavily on locating his two-seam fastball. He changes eye levels with his four-seamer and neutralizes right-handed hitters with a deceptive change-up. Lamb will often struggle with his release point, especially with his breaking pitches, which negates his command. He’s adept at mixing his pitches and only needs consistency before breaking through as a potential strong starter in the big leagues. Lamb has made just two starts this season and has allowed just eight hits and two runs over 10 innings. This kid can pitch and while there will be bumps in the road along the way, he’s very worthy of backing in this spot against a Cleveland team that is hitting a mere .234 against southpaws in 316 AB’s.
Cody Anderson allowed four earned runs and six hits, with 2 K/1 BB, in five innings in his May 7 return to the Indians rotation. He had been optioned to Triple-A in late April so Cleveland could add a reliever, as the team's schedule did not require a fifth starter for an extended period. Anderson's rotation stint is likely to continue until injured Carlos Carrasco is ready to return or if he turns things around. Here’s what we know for sure. Anderson created a lot of buzz during spring training because he was dealing it with 95 MPH heat and striking out lots of batters. High velocity means nothing if it doesn’t have movement or if not’s located well. Anderson has been tagged for 42 hits in 28 innings this year with eight of those hits leaving the yard. He brings a .344 oppBA, a 1.66 WHIP and the Indians are 0-6 in games that he’s thrown at least one pitch in. Cody Anderson is not the first pitcher to put up great numbers in the minors and during spring training but fail miserably at this level and he certainly won’t be the last. He had a strong showing in AAA last year with a 1.89 ERA in 71 innings, which netted a late June call-up, But like always, we’ll focus on skills, not stats, and we see a subpar K-rate that severely limits his upside given equally mediocre swing and miss rate. Career MLB xERA of 4.86 in 120 innings further hints that we may have already seen his best. Anderson has proven absolutely nothing to warrant being priced in this range.
Minnesota +160 over DETROIT
Jose Berrios is one of the brightest pitching prospects in the game. Because of injuries to starters Kyle Gibson and Earvin Santana, who has since returned, Berrios may have gotten the call a little prematurely. The projection for Berrios was that he was going to be a mid-season call-up but nothing has worked out for the Twins this year and now the 22-year-old right-hander finds himself making his fourth start. Indeed he will struggle because he’s learning against the best hitters in the world but he has the stuff to thrive also, which he will do in more than a few games this season. In 14 innings, Berrios has 19 K’s with a supported 13% swing and miss rate. His fastball sits between 91-96 mph and tops out at 97. His other pitches consist of a very good breaking ball and above average change-up. He keeps hitters off-balance with his deceptive change-up which plays up due to his ability to repeat his athletic delivery and consistent arm slot. He’s taking back a big price here because he has a 6.28 ERA and because he plays for the 10-26 Twins. However, Minnesota has grossly underachieved thus far but perhaps they’re snapping out of it with back-to-back victories in Cleveland this past weekend. Remember, the Twinkies challenged for a playoff spot all of last year and they were supposed to be better this year.
In the 15 years that we have been posting plays on-line, we have told you about several pitchers on the verge of a big decline long before it happened. Starters like Jared Weaver, Barry Zito, Dan Haren, Ricky Romero and Yovanni Gallardo come to mind but the key is to get to them before their value declines. For instance, you don’t see us fading Weaver much anymore because the market has caught up to his decline and so the value in fading him is gone. Last year we hinted a couple of times that Jordan Zimmermann could be on the verge of a decline and we’re not about to let up with even more proof this year. The good news is that unlike Weaver, this market still considers Zimmermann to be a rock solid investment, which is going to provide us with opportunities to fade him. This is one of those opportunities.
Zimmerman has a 1.50 ERA after seven starts. That’s actually incredible when you consider that he has 28 K’s in 48 innings with a 5% swing and miss rate. Nostarting pitcher in baseball is outperforming their skills more than Zimmerman is. His 4.35 xERA profiles him as a near-4 ERA pitcher. While we can bank on continued good control from him given his low 33% ball%, his awful swing and miss rate and 41% groundball rate tells us there is a big correction forthcoming. Zimmerman’s balls in play have been hit right at people and it’s simply something that cannot last. Zimmerman is priced like an upper-tier starter when he’s not even close to being one and so the time to sell on this very fortunate starter would be right now before the correction occurs.