SPS Investors
Cincinnati vs. Cleveland
Pick: Cincinnati
The Cincinnati Reds certainly seem like a team that is in disarray at the moment. They currently occupy the basement of the NL Central, 12.5 games behind the Chicago Cubs and have struggled mightily on the road, coming away with just 3 victories in 15 attempts on the highway this season. That being said, the Cleveland Indians simply cannot be trusted laying these huge odds. This is a team that is still in search of their identity and will send a shaky and less than reliable pitcher to the mound tonight.
Cody Anderson will make his sixth start of the year and he has struggled in every single one of them thus far this season. He is 0-3 with a 7.31 ERA and a 1.659 WHIP over 28.1 innings and has given up 42 hits during that span. Anderson took the loss in his last outing, which came in relief Wednesday against the Astros. He has also struggled somewhat at Progressive field going just 4-3 with a 4.98 ERA and a 1.374 WHIP over 11 starts totaling 59.2 innings. For the Indians to be a sizeable favorite with him on the mound; the reward is simply not worth the risk here.
The Reds will counter with John Lamb who will make his third start of the season tonight. Lamb has actually been impressive thus far on the mound, even though he has yet to record a decision. He has an impressive 1.80ERA and 1.20 WHIP in just over 10 innings of work. He again took a no-decision in his last start which came against the Brewers as he threw four innings, allowing a single run on two hits with one walk and three strikeouts in a game that the Reds lost 5-4. He could have potentially lasted longer in that outing but left the game with a sprained thumb after throwing 56 pitches. This will be his 13th career start, but his first against the Tribe and at Progressive Field. The fact that Cleveland has no experience against him could play into the Reds favor tonight.
As bad as the Reds have been recently, we simply cannot see the value in backing the Indians at such a steep price with a starting pitcher whose ERA is above 7.00! Both teams have been inconsistent as of late so we will back what we believe is the better pitcher at a much better return on investment.
Harry Bondi
BOSTON -125 over Kansas City
Red Sox are just crushing the ball right now and with and with Rick Porcello and his 6-1 record and 3.11 ERA on the hill tonight, the BoSox are the way to go here. Yordano Ventura goes tonight for KC and he has struggled lately going 1-2 with a 8.36 ERA over his last 3 starts. Boston has scored 73 runs over the last 10 games and Kansas City's offense isn't exactly sizzling right now so let's back the red hot Red Sox over the Royals tonight.
Rob Veno
Oklahoma City at Golden State
Play: : Over 223.5
Tonight’s Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals will be the fourth meeting this season between these teams with Golden State going 3-0 straight up, 2-0-1 against the spread and the “under” cashing in two of the three. However, if tonight’s current total of 223.5 had been the number in all three regular season games, the “over” would’ve been 3-0. Regular season games totaled 224, 239 (only 206 before OT) and 227. The shaving of 6.5 points minimum off the regular season closing totals could be enough room to sneak in here with an “over." Neither team in this series is going to stray from what they do best which is play open floor basketball. For the Thunder, the offensive production that resulted from ball sharing in the latter games of the San Antonio series makes them even more dangerous scoring wise right now. Russell Westbrook who averaged 26.3 ppg against the Warriors this season could even boost that number since he’s certain to challenge counterpart Steph Curry and his less than 100% ankle. The matchup for Kevin Durant who blistered Golden State for 109 points (36.3 per game) this season has shown to be very favorable. On the defensive side however, Oklahoma City’s elevated public perception after the Dallas and San Antonio series victories figures to come back down to earth. Even the new bandwagon key to the series (OKC’s rebounding from their “length lineup”) didn’t help during the regular season as they out-rebounded Golden State 62-32 on Feb 27th and still allowed 121 points in their three point OT loss. In all, each HC in this series has a positive counter to any adjustment the other might make to try and limit scoring potential. If the shooting percentages are the norm tonight, then there is a solid opportunity for this game to exceed 223.5 points. OKC has thrown in a couple of shooting clunkers in this post season, but don’t feel like this will be one of those. Expect this game to land in the neighborhood of 227+.
DWAYNE BRYANT
Marlins at Phillies
Play: Under 7.5
Philly's Jerad Eickhoff has been very good at home (2.25 ERA, 0.90 WHIP). Active Miami hitters own a combined career .211 BA, .263 SLG, and .206 wOBA in 19 PA against him. Eickhoff is in a bounce-back spot after lasting just 4 1/3 innings and allowing four runs (three earned) in his last start (at Atlanta).
Miami's Adam Conley is also in a bounce-back spot tonight after allowing four runs on seven hits in just four innings against Milwaukee in his last outing. Active Phillies hitters own a combined lifetime .179 BA, .250 SLG, and .219 wOBA against Conley. The Phillies are averaging just three runs per game against lefties this season.
Both bullpens are in good current form.
ADI (Air Density Index) is 70, meaning the ball won't travel as well as it normally would.
Keep an eye out for whomever is going to be the home plate umpire. This play is even stronger if we get a home plate ump with an under bias.
Bob Balfe
Warriors -7.5
The last few times both teams got together in this building the Warriors shot lights out in the first half. One of the recent games they scored 79 pts. I just can’t get over the quick start that the Warriors put up. Oklahoma State is capable of winning on the road as we saw them beat the Spurs twice, but this is different because they are going to have to put up 55+ points in the first half or this game will be over before the 3rd quarter. I believe the Thunder will be playing catch up all night.
A’s -120
It is hard to keep the level of play at a high level after an emotional series against the Blue Jays. The Rangers are on the map now because of all the wrong reasons after that fight yesterday. Texas has the more known pitcher on the mound yet are the underdogs. This to me screams big time trap game for people betting based on emotions. Holland has struggled this year and I expect the A’s to tag a couple monster home runs in this game with the wind blowing out.
GoodFella
Miami -120
Solid value for me on the Marlins in this spot for me. I have this game lined Miami -130. Both Stanton and Ozuna are in the line up this evening. They had a brutal collision their last game, but both players are fine and are starting tonight. The Fish SP Conley is being under-valued IMO. The Phillies are not as potent vs LH pitching & I fully expect Conley to limit this Philly lineup tonight. I also expect this under-valued Fish lineup to get to Philly SP Eikhoff eventually. Solid value on the Fish for me here, as I look for Conley to limit these Phillies and hand the ball off to the Marlins best arms in their bullpen to close this game out tonight.