Free Picks for Monday, May 1st, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
RAPTORS AT CAVALIERS
PLAY: CAVALIERS -6.5
I can see where a case can be made to back Toronto plus the points in tonight’s series opener. While the Cavs won three of the four regular season meetings, those victories were each by small margins (four, four and three points, respectively). It’s clear that the Raptors were able to compete with the Cavs in that quartet of games.
It’s also worth noting that while the Cavaliers dispatched Indiana in four straight to open their championship defense, all four games were tight. Cleveland wins were by four, five, six and one in descending order.
Those sets of numbers suggest the line on this opening game might be a bit on the high side. But my thoughts are that this is where the Cavs begin to ramp things up. Last season is a long time ago, but let’s remember that Cleveland absolutely crushed this opponent in its three home games in the May 2016 hookups. I’m not saying the Cavaliers will win by those massive margins, but I am of the belief they will control this series and win it fairly convincingly.
I’ll look for that trend toward domination to begin tonight, and I’ll play the Cavaliers minus the points.
Ray Monohan
Capitals vs. Penguins
Play: Over 5½
The Pens have all the control here heading into Game 3 and with their backs against the wall, Washington has to come out firing. Given that, expect the Over to be a nice play here. Washington and Pittsburgh are two of the quickest teams in the NHL and they're going to really push the issue here with the series in full swing.
With how many weapons each team has, there is a lot of back and forth action between each of the two teams. With Washington needing to be aggressive and needing to get out early, look for them to have plenty of chances, along with the Pens getting some counter chances. Some trends to note. Over is 3-0-4 in the last 7 meetings in Pittsburgh. Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings.
Jim Feist
Capitals vs. Penguins
Play: Over 5½
Both teams have speed on offense, both Top 3 in goals scored. Washington has a dominant regular season goalie in Braden Holtby, but he wilts in the postseason. Washington is down 2-0 allowing 9 goals -- and both games were at home. Washington is 9-3 over the total at home and the Over is 17-4-9 in the Capitals last 30 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Penguins are rolling on offense, 4-1 run over the total. The Over is 35-17 in Penguins last 52 vs. the Eastern Conference. And the Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings, 3-0-4 over at Pittsburgh.
Marc Lawrence
Orioles vs. Red Sox
Play: Orioles +110
Edges - Orioles: Bundy 4-1 with 1.65 ERA and 0.98 WHIP this season… Red Sox: Porcello 1-2 with 6.75 ERA and 1.50 WHIP home this season… With Porcello 1-4 his last five home team starts against the Birds, we recommend a 1* play on Baltimore.
Tony Karpinski
Mets vs. Braves
Play: Mets +111
Mets pitching game up 23 runs on 23 hits as the Nationals scored in every inning but the 2nd in their game on Sunday. We had this same pitching matchup last Wednesday and Atlanta won 8-2. Julio Teheran has faced the Mets twice already, so the Mets have seen him enough and his stuff. You just gotta think the Mets bounce back with a win behind their rookie pitcher Robert Gsellman. The rookie righty will become the first Mets pitcher to start at SunTrust Park.
Dustin Hawkins
Giants vs. Dodgers
Play: Giants +220
The Giants are 44-31 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start over the last 2 seasons. Giants pitcher Johnny Cueto is 30-17 against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) since 1997.LA Dodgers are 17-27 against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.
Teddy Davis
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Play: Cincinnati +112
The Reds are worth a look here as a home underdog here. They managed to split with the Cardinals winning yesterday's game. The Pirates played very well in Miami, but couldn't pull off the sweep.
Garrett has been a very nice surprise for them this season. He was really roughed up last game vs Milwaukee, but I believe he bounces back here. Prior to his last start his previous two he went over 13 innings only giving up 4 earned runs.
Cole had a rough start to the season and has settled down nicely since then. I don't trust him on the road as he does have an ERA near 5 in 3 road starts. The biggest thing for me is that Cole has never beat the Reds! He is 0-6 with a 5.44 ERA!
Handicappers Hub
Giants vs. Dodgers
Play: Under 6
Johnny Cueto is 5-6 against the Dodgers with a 2.56 ERA lifetime while Kershaw is 19-8 with a 1.57 ERA against the Giants lifetime. In the last 3 start each of of them had it has only gone over 6 runs just 1 time and that was 4-3 with the bullpen blowing the lead for the Dodgers. Both teams are also struggling scoring runs this season with the Giants averaging just 3.3 runs per game and the Dodgers averaging 4.3 runs per game. Look for a pitchers duel with the first one getting 2 runs winning this thing tonight in LA!
Rob Vinciletti
Tampa Bay vs. Miami
Play: Miami -129
Miami fits a solid 91% system that plays on home favorites off a home favored win by 5+ runs vs a team like Tampa off a road favored loss that had 4 or less hits. Tampa is 0-3 on Monday and 2-9 on the road vs teams under .500. Chen start for Miami and he is 7-1 as a home favorite and has won his last 3 Home starts in may. Odorizzi has always struggled on the road and this is his 1st road start this year. Look for Miami to win.
Brandon Lee
Rangers +1.5
I don't hate Texas on the money line for the big pay off, but I think the best bet here is to play the Rangers on the +1.5 run line at a great price. Houston is overvalued by the books right now, especially at home, as they have no business being -200 against a division opponent here. Texas is sending out Andrew Cashner, who owns a 2.94 ERA in 3 starts. He'll face Lance McCullers, who has a 5.62 ERA over his last 3 starts. It's also worth noting the Rangers have owned the Astros of late. Texas is 28-10 against the Astros over the last 3 seasons, which includes a 12-6 record at Houston.
Andrew Gold
Texas vs Houston
Play: Texas +196
If your a player that likes the big underdog look no further than this game here tonight. The Astros aren't exactly lighting it up right now only winning 2 of their last 5 games. Also is McCullers really that much better than Cashner?
McCullers has pitched his his best so far at home this season and clearly odds makers are giving him the benefit of the doubt here. He still carries a 4.34 ERA on the year and 5.62 ERA his last 3 starts. Not exactly something you are looking for with a huge favorite. He has also never beaten the Rangers and carries an 8.03 ERA against them!
Cashner in 3 starts has a 2.94 ERA on the season and the Astors do struggle to score runs at home only averaging 3.6 so far this season
Jack Jones
Tampa Bay +133
I like the value we are getting with the Tampa Bay Rays are +133 underdogs in Game 1 of this series with the Miami Marlins Monday. They'll be motivated for a win following two straight losses at Toronto over the weekend.
Jake Odorizzi makes his first start back from the DL after going 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his first three starts this season. Odorizzi has dominated the Marlins over the past two seasons, going 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in two starts against them while pitching 12 innings without allowing a single earned run.
Wei-Yin Chen has gone 2-1 with a 4.71 ERA in four starts this season. He was rocked in his only home start, giving up 6 runs in 3 innings of an 8-9 loss to the Mets. Chen has allowed 11 earned runs in 17 1/3 innings for a 5.71 ERA in his last three starts against the Rays.
Tampa Bay is 52-25 in its last 77 vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse. The Rays are 38-13 in their last 51 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. Tampa Bay is 4-1 in Odorizzi's last five interleague starts. The Marlins are 7-19 in their last 26 interleague games. The Rays are 19-9 in the last 28 meetings.
Jimmy Boyd
Cincinnati +108
I really like the value here with the Reds on Monday. While these two teams come in with identical records, Pittsburgh is perceived to be the better team and have their so called ace in Gerrit Cole on the mound. Given the suspension of Starling Marte and David Freese on the DL, I don't think the Pirates are any better than the Reds right now. Cole is a well known name, but he's still not his old self. He's 1-3 with a 3.60 ERA in 5 starts and has a 4.76 ERA in 3 road starts. On top of that, Cincinnati has been his nemesis. Cole is 0-6 with a 5.44 ERA in 43 innings against the Reds (6.10 ERA last year).
Not many know of Cincinnati starter Amir Garrett, but there's a lot to like. He was rocked for 9 runs on 8 hits in just 3 1/3 innings in his last start at Milwaukee, but prior to that hadn't allowed more than 2 runs in each of his previous 3 starts and pitched at least 6 innings in all 3 outings. This is a great spot for him to bounce back against a Pirates offense that is scoring just 3.7 runs/game (only 2.9 runs/game against division).
Larry Ness
Tampa Bay vs. Miami
Pick: Miami
The Marlins snapped a four-game slide with a 10-3 victory over Pittsburgh on Sunday and will host the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday in the opener of a four-game, home-and-home IL series. The Rays complete an eight-game road trip with Monday and Tuesday games in Miami and have gone 2-4 on the trip so far, leaving them just 3-10 on the road to open the 2017 season.
Jake Odorizzi (1-1, 4.15 ERA) will get the start for the Rays and Wei-Yin Chen (2-1, 4.71 ERA) for the Marlins. Odorizzi lost his 2017 opener 5-0 (6 IP / 7 hits / 4 ERs) but pitched much better in his second start (6 IP / 2 ERs), although he didn't get a decision in Tampa's 7-2 win. He then suffered a hamstring injury in his third start (lasted one inning) and makes his first start since April 15 in this one. He has recorded 30 wins over the previous three seasons and is 2-1 with a 4.29 ERA in four career starts vs the Marlins (Rays are 3-10.
Chen suffered his first loss in four starts Wednesday at Philadelphia, allowing four runs on seven hits over five innings after limiting two of his first three opponents to fewer than two runs. He began his career with Baltimore, so he's seen a lot of the Rays, going 5-6 with a 5.76 ERA in career 20 starts against Tampa Bay (teams are 10-10).
Chen is in his second season of a five-year, $80 million free agent contract he signed with the Marlins (leaving the Baltimore Orioles) but he has not pitched well at Marlins Park. Still, the Rays are 3-10 (minus-$633) on the road so far in 2017. This is a team Chen can beat.