Power Sports
Tampa Bay vs. Miami
Pick: Tampa Bay
Blindly taking the American League team in Interleague Play can be an effective betting strategy, but when they're the better team and getting 'plus money,' it's a virtual steal. Tampa Bay comes into this four-game set (two games here, then two at home) having dropped B2B games in which they've scored a total of just two runs (1 both games). But even w/ the DH dropping out of the lineup, I see far more offensive success taking place tonight in Miami as Marlins starter Wei-Yin Chen has not been good in 2017.
Chen's one home start so far was a disaster. He gave up six runs in three innings and that was against the Mets. He has not pitched well here since coming over from Baltimore last season. His ERA in 11 home starts last year was 5.49. Tampa Bay is more than familiar w/ him due to his time spent in the AL East. In 20 career starts against the Rays (most vs. any opponent), Chen has a losing record to go along w/ a 3.76 ERA. With J.T. Realmuto expected back behind the plate tonight, Marlins fans (all 5 of them?) may rejoice over what they feel will be an offensive upgrade over backup catcher A.J. Ellis. But while Ellis is only a .136 hitter, his effect on the pitching staff more than counteracts that. The team is 4-1 this season w/ Ellis behind the plate (as opposed to 7-11 w/ Realmuto) due in large part to his outstanding pitch framing. Marlins' pitchers see their ERA decrease by 1.86 when Ellis is in the lineup.
The Rays are by no means an offensive juggernaut, but they will welcome back Jake Odorizzi to the rotation tonight. He's coming off the 15-day DL (hamstring) here. Miami did score 10 runs Sunday, but on Saturday they were shutout on just 95 pitches! The Marlins' 14-29 Interleague record is bad, even by NL standards, and I see Tampa coming in and taking this series opener.
Will Rogers
New York at Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta
The set-up: The Mets won the NL East in 2015 and reached the World Series (lost to the Royals). They followed with an 87-win season in 2016 but lost the wild card game. In stark contrast, the Braves have gone 67-95 and 68-93 these last two years, respectively. However, as the New York Mets open a four-game road series against the Atlanta Braves on Monday, New York is 10-14, a half-game worse than the 10-13 Braves.
The pitching matchup: Robert Gsellman (0-2 & 6.23 ERA) will open the series for the Mets, while the Braves send their ace, Julio Teheran (2-1 & 3.38 ERA). Gsellman makes his third appearance (second start) of the season against the Braves and hopes for a better showing after surrendering five ERs on 10 hits in four innings of a loss to Atlanta last Wednesday. Gsellman pitched a scoreless inning of relief against the Braves on April 3 but is 0-2 with a 6.91 ERA in three career starts against them (Mets are 1-2). Teheran earned the victory against Gsellman and the Mets on Wednesday, giving up two runs on four hits with four walks and four strikeouts over 6 1/3 innings. He rebounded nicely after his worst start of the season April 19 against Washington, one in which he allowed seven runs in four innings. However, that start has been the exception in 2017, as he has limited opponents to two ERs or less in his other four starts.
The pick: Not only was Gsellman bad against the Braves (at Citi Field) in his one start against them in 2017 but he also gave up eight runs (four earned) in 4 2/3 innings of his only road start of the season back on April 13 at Miami. Meanwhile, Teheran opened 2017 by holding New York to four hits in six scoreless innings on April 3, and has held the Mets to a .186 batting average and no extra base hits in 37 at-bats this season, over two starts. In 16 career starts against the Mets, Teheran owns a 1.95 ERA.
John Martin
Orioles vs. Red Sox
Play: Orioles +126
The Boston Red Sox are coming off a huge win on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball at home over the Chicago Cubs last night. I think this is an emotional letdown spot for them because of it. I like the price on the Orioles here with Dylan Bundy on the mound. Bundy has been their best starter at 3-1 with a 1.65 ERA in five starts. He has held the Red Sox to just 3 runs in 13 1/3 innings in two starts against them this year. Rick Porcello is 1-3 with a 4.75 ERA in five starts, 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in three home starts, and 4-8 with a 4.88 ERA in 15 starts against the Orioles.
Mike Menase
Chicago at Kansas City
Play: Chicago +147
I really like the value here with the White Sox. These are two teams heading in different directions. The Royals have lost nine straight while the White Sox have won six out of seven. But I especially like the match-up for the White Sox.
The Royals bring their ace onto the mound, Jason Vargas. He is undoubtedly an elite pitcher and he's enjoying a high-quality season. However, he did have one bad start in this season and that came against the White Sox, where he gave up three runs and seven hits in five innings. I expect him to struggle here again today. The White Sox specialize in hitting lefty finesse pitchers. Vargas is very much a finesse pitcher who relies on location and movement of his pitches and not at all on velocity. Against left-handed pitchers the Sox are producing a .840 ops compared to .635 vs right-handed pitchers. Against finesse pitchers the Sox are enjoying an .853 ops compared to .543 against power pitchers. The White Sox should hit well, again, against Vargas because they match up with him so well. And the earlier that they knock him out of the game the better, because the Royals bullpen has been atrocious. The Royals' bullpen is ranked 27th with a 5.67 ERA and yet they should have to rely on their relievers today because Vargas may not survive for six innings today. Playing at home has not helped Royals relievers, who have given up five runs past the sixth inning in their past two home games vs the Twins. I expect the White Sox to produce a lot of runs.
And playing a team that can produce a lot of runs is troublesome especially for the Royals whose bats have been cold. Granted, they have been able to be somewhat more effective at home, where their ops is .661 compared to .563 on the road. But even .661 isn't very good. The Royals do also enjoy similar numbers against ground ball pitchers, which Covey very much is one. But they simply lack the quality to produce enough to compete with a a hot White Sox lineup that should produce a lot of runs today. I do expect the Royals to get a few runs off of Covey, but then they will have to face the best bullpen in baseball, whose relievers will come into this game well-rested. I don't expect the Royals to score enough today.
So, we get a competitive match-up between both starters because the White Sox lineup matches up well with Vargas. The White Sox also enjoy a decisive advantage in terms of bullpen. And we are getting the White Sox as big underdogs.
Steve Janus
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Play: Cincinnati +103
Play Against - Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (PITTSBURGH) - below average hitting team (AVG .255 or less) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game. This system is 29-12 (71%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons.
Tony Stoffo
Brewers vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -150
Milwaukee sends out Zach Davies, 2-2 with a 6.57 ERA. The right hander allowed four runs and eight hits in 5 1/3 innings but still earned a win the last time he faced the Cards. The Brewers lead the NL Central in runs allowed with 128. The Brewers are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings in St. Louis and 3-7 in Davies' last 10 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
St. Louis has won nine of their last twelve with three of those wins coming at Milwaukee. The Cardinals hand the ball to Michael Wacha with a 2-1 mark and a 2.55 ERA. The right hander is 4-0 with a 4.09 ERA in seven career games against the Brewers. The Cardinals are 6-2 in their last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter and 5-1 in Wacha's last 6 home starts.
Dave Price
Rangers vs. Astros
Play: Astros -1.5
The Key: Lance McCullers has one of the biggest home/away splits of any starting pitcher. He is 11-4 with a 2.08 ERA in 23 home starts, and 3-9 with a 5.32 ERA in 18 road starts in his career. McCullers is 2-0 with a 1.83 ERA in 3 home starts this season. He'll be opposed by Andrew Cashner, who 0-2 in 3 starts this season with plenty of control issues. He has already walked 13 batters in 15 1/3 innings. The Rangers are 1-5 in their last 6 road games. The Astros are 9-2 in their last 11 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The Astros are 47-21 in their last 68 vs. a team with a losing record. The Astros are 5-1 in McCullers' last 6 home starts.
Black Widow
Blue Jays vs. Yankees
Play: Blue Jays +161
Bets on road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (Toronto) poor offensive team that scores 4.2 or fewer runs per game against a team with a very good bullpen with an ERA of 3.33 or better, after allowing 3 runs or less in two straight games are 29-18 (61.7%, +34.3 units) over the last five seasons. Marco Estrada has a 2.70 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 30 innings spanning five starts this season. Estrada is 3-2 with a 3.46 ERA in nine starts against the Yankees. Luis Severino is 0-2 with a 7.05 ERA in four starts against the Blue Jays.
SPORTS WAGERS
Washington +105 over PITTSBURGH
OT included. The ghosts of playoffs past continue to haunt the Capitals and it may be hard to shake them off. Washington now comes into this game in Pittsburgh down 0-2 after losing 6-2 in Game 2. Braden Holtby was yanked. Back in February against Pittsburgh, the Caps lost 8-7 and Holtby was yanked in that game too. We suggested before last game that the Penguins might be in his head and that is certainly possible.
It can't be easy for the Caps to find answers against the Penguins right now, as any mistake or opening that Washington gives to Pittsburgh is turning up as goals against. It's impossible to quantify intangible items like momentum and psychology, but you cannot take the human element out of anything. The core of this Washington group knows that they have lost six of the last eight playoff games to the Pens in the past 12 months, not to mention eight of the last nine series. What is their left to say?
Well, it can be said that all roads to the Stanley Cup go through Pittsburgh. The Caps have never found a way out of town to continue that journey and things are looking bleak once again. However, if this team is different, really and truly different, they are now going to have to find in ample supply of the one thing that no team before them has evidenced in large supply before --- resolve ---and we’re going to bet they find it and here’s why:
Pittsburgh looked awful in winning their first round series against Columbus. They won that series purely on luck and weak goaltending by Sergei Bobrovsky. In the five games of that series, Pittsburgh was the better team on the ice in zero games. In Game 1 of this series in D.C., Pittsburgh looked awful but once again, the puck bounced their way and they pulled out a very fortunate victory. We suggested before Game 2 that Pittsburgh won despite a weak effort and that one cannot reasonably expect another weak effort from the Pens in Game 2. We were wrong. For 60 minutes, it looked like Pittsburgh was killing a penalty. The entire first period was played in Pittsburgh’s end and the score could have easily been 5-0 after one period for the Caps. The rest of the game was mostly played in Pittsburgh’s end too. For 120 minutes of this series, the Penguins have been absolutely and unequivocally dominated throughout.
In 1990, the San Francisco 49ers obliterated the Broncos in the Super Bowl, 55-10. Washington’s dominance over Pittsburgh in this series has been just as convincing as the 49ers win over Denver but Pittsburgh’s luck has been off the charts with not one, but two miracle wins. That 6-2 Penguins victory in Game 2 is one of the most misleading scores in NHL playoff history. Indeed, Game 2 was one-sided but it should have been a five goal or more Washington win and not a four-goal loss.
For seven games in these playoffs, we’ve been anticipating a Penguins wake-up call. It has not happened and it appears they are getting worse. The Pens defense is an absolute wasteland of mistakes that have turned into glorious scoring chances and somehow, someway, the opposition has not capitalized. The Penguins can thank the post, crossbar and unlucky deflections for that. These playoffs have been one horrible turnover after another for the Penguins and there is no wake-up call on the horizon, just like there is no on/off switch that the Penguins can reach for.
Between last year and this year, Pittsburgh’s core has played a ton of hockey. A Stanley Cup victory into late June last year combined with several players participating in the World Cup in September followed by another grueling year filled with injuries has the Penguins gassed. It is beyond clear to us that the Penguins are not the same team this year nor are they as hungry. Pittsburgh is winning for two reasons. One, their luck has been through the roof. Secondly, Marc Andre Fleury has bailed them out in all six victories. Luck runs out and if we lose this bet, so be it but we’re seeing a complete domination of one team over another and we don’t see anything that suggests the Penguins are about to flip a switch on because one doesn’t exist.
When the Capitals were in trouble heading to Toronto, they played two outstanding road games and they also played great in Game 6 in Toronto. Pittsburgh has put up a fraction of the fight that the Maple Leafs put up and all Washington needs is a break to get over the hump. They don’t need luck either. They have clearly been the superior team by a wide, wide margin and if things break evenly, Washington will win easily here and go on to win the series. One game at a time for now.
SPORTS WAGERS
Tampa Bay +125 over MIAMI
We like the Marlins. This is a team with power, speed and several very good hitters. When the Marlins are taking back a price, they are going to be the first team we look at daily because some great profits are in store. However, what they don’t have is starting pitching and so we’re not about to pass up a price like this against Wei-Yin Chen (LHP).
Chen has 13 K’s in 21 frames with a 9% swing and miss rate. He has a 4.71 ERA, a 4.68 xERA, a 1.24 WHIP and a groundball/fly-ball split of 35%/43%. There is nothing in Chen’s profile that suggests spotting a price with him is a good idea. Things got so bad for him last year that he moved into the pen for two months. Beset by gopheritis (giving up jacks) once again, and with his middling swing and miss rate and low groundball%, this is a package we want no part of as the chalk. If Miami wins, good for them but in terms of value, Chen must be faded when priced in this range.
Jake Odorizzi is not much better but he’s not the one spotting a price here. If he were, we would be on the Marlins. Odorizzi’s fly-ball rate is up another tick this year. HR’s were persistent last year and the damage inflicted by RHBs appears to be on the upswing. Yet despite his unimpressive dominant start/disaster start split, Odorizzi still managed to retain a sub-4 ERA last season while eating innings and racking up wins and K’s. In three starts this year covering 13 innings, all of his numbers are better than Chen’s. Control and an upper hand versus lefties keep Odorizzi's head above water and we’ll bank on him keeping the Rays in it here.
Chicago +145 over KANSAS CITY
Which team is young, energetic and can’t wait to play some ball and which team is full of veteran players that had a great run for a few years but is out of the pennant race after a month? Mindset plays a big part of this game and as the great Yogi Berra said, “Baseball is 90 percent mental. The other half is physical.” Kansas City comes into this game with the worst record (7-16) in MLB while the South Side, who unloaded everyone and was projected to lose 100 games, are sitting at 13-10 and have won six of their last seven games.
The South Side is taking back a sweet tag here because they’re sending out a rookie with horrible numbers back out there. Dylan Covey (RHP) is 0-1 with a 6.91 ERA after three starts. He’s has more walks (8) than strikeouts (6) in 14 innings of work so we can understand the reluctance to get behind him here. However, we’re not going to judge a starter over three starts. This is a pitcher with only 30 innings of Double-A experience and that skipped Triple-A altogether. Of course he’s going to be excited and nervous about pitching in the big leagues and now all he has to do is settle down. Three starts in and we’re willing to gamble that things get better here because Covey has a power arm and returned with self-confidence in the Arizona Fall League after his injury-plagued campaign.
He’s long had potential since he was an unsigned first round pick of the Brewers in 2010. Oakland later drafted him in 2013 after his college days at San Diego. The White Sox selected him in the Rule 5 draft in December of 2016. Covey hits his spots with a terrific 89-94 mph fastball and keeps the ball down in the zone for groundballs. He likes to use his sinker early in the count. His big breaking curveball registers strikeouts, but he has trouble throwing it for consistent strikes. A decent change-up gives him a third average offering. Covey has a good pitcher’s frame and if you take away his one start in the Bronx (5 IP, 10 ER, 3 HR’s), his numbers look pretty good with 0 HR’s allowed and just eight hits surrendered in nine combined innings over two other starts.
Then there’s the resurgence of Jason Vargas (LHP) with his BB/K split of 2/28 and 1.40 ERA after 26 innings. Prior to his last seven starts, Vargas had a career 5.5 K’s/9 over 12 seasons. How does a 34-year-old lefty that is coming off a 14 month hiatus after TJS, go from 5.5 K’s/9 over 12 years to 9.8 K’s/9 over four 2017 starts? Prior to signing with the Royals in 2013, Vargas made only 10 starts at AL Central parks and In 56 innings he had a 5.91 ERA with 13 HR, a 1.65 WHIP with 4 K’s/9. Four years later and he’s blowing away people with a fastball that tops off at 86 MPH?
The experts are citing that his release points look different and they’re resulting in different movement on his pitches (or at least his fastballs), too. If one were to ask why he’s more effective, it appears to be related to his command, which is the result of a minor mechanical adjustment. We are talking mere inches horizontally and vertically — and it might be a good time to mention that we’re not physicists nor are we biomechanics experts. We’re not sure if the movement theory is legitimate. Regardless, a mechanical adjustment could very well cultivate sustainable results. We’ve seen it before but it’s just so hard to believe that this time it is coming from a perennially mediocre starter for 12 years that has worked with 15 different pitching coaches. This is Bartolo Colon with a curve ball that is worth fading at these prices.
Otto Sports
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Play: Pittsburgh -111
Pittsburgh's offense has started to pick it up some with respectable .265/.360/.446/.805 splits over its last nine games (5-4, 4.6 runs per game). Cincinnati meanwhile is headed in the opposite direction. They've lost 11 of 15 and seen the team's batting average drop 23 points and OPS 54 points during that span.
Gerrit Cole will take the hill for the Pirates tonight. After a rough outing at Boston to open the year, Cole owns a 2.52 ERA and a stellar 25-5 K-to-BB ratio over his last four starts. He was at his best last time out, throwing only 78 pitches over 7 scoreless innings against the ultra-potent Chicago Cubs.
Amir Garrett has been one of the few bright spots for Cincinnati's decimated rotation. Garrett was practically unhittable in his first three starts (1.83 ERA) but ran into some difficulty last time out as Milwaukee torched him for nine runs in 3.1 innings. Garrett doesn't have overpowering stuff and could find it more difficult when facing teams for a second time like he will here tonight (6 IP, 2 ER vs. Pittsburgh on April 12).
We also need to bring up Cincinnati's bullpen situation. Due to all of the injuries to the starting staff, the Reds' relievers have been worked extremely hard. They lead MLB with over 100 IP through 24 games and come into this game even more fatigued having thrown 34.2 over the last ten days including five innings in yesterday's 5-4 win over St. Louis. And not only is fatigue a concern but regression as well as this group currently flashes MLB's second-best xFIP (3.10) despite ranking dead last in 2016 (4.79). I'll side with the short road favorite tonight.
Buster Sports
Toronto at New York
Play: Toronto +160
The Toronto Blue Jays have dug themselves a big hole at the beginning of this year and are slowly trying to dig themselves out. The Jays have won 2 in a row and now head to the Big Apple to start a 3 game series with the Yankees. Tonight's starters are for the Blue Jays RH Marco Estrada (0-1, 2.70 ERA) and he will face for the Yankees RH Luis Severino (2-1, 3.00 ERA) Estrada has been basically lights out to start the year except for one bad start in Tampa Bay. In his last 3 starts he has a measly 0.95 ERA with a WHIP of 1. Severino has pitched well for the Yankees this year but when he faces the Jays in the past he has had trouble. Against the Jays when he starts, he has a 0-2 record wi
Bill Marzano
Houston at San Antonio
Play: Houston +6
I really like the Houston Rockets + the points in this game vs the SA Spurs...this series has the chance to be the best and maybe even the full seven games...the Rockets can shoot plain and simple but did lose three of four meetings vs the Spurs this year...the Spurs won the last two meetings by two points, and once by six points...the Rockets average a little over 115 points per game and have been equally as good on the road averaging almost 114...the will challenge the Spurs defensively with the way they can stretch the floor, its going to come down to how well can Houston defend...expect another close game here...I like Houston + the points
Andre Ramirez
New York at Atlanta
Play: Atlanta -1½
The Mets go on the road to Atlanta. The Mets have to face Atlanta’s toughest starter with Teheran climbing the mound. New York is 3-10 in their last 13 games overall and 10-4 in their last 14 road games while the over is 14-4-3 in their last 21 games overall. Atlanta is 6-0 in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing record and 5-15 in Teheran's last 20 home starts while the over is 45-21-3 in their last 69 games overall. New York is 2-6 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
Stephen Nover
Tigers+125
I'm not a fan of Trevor Bauer. This is too high of a road price to lay with Bauer against southpaw Danniel Norris. The Indians have lost seven of the last eight times they've faced a lefty starter.
Bauer had a 6.39 ERA last September. He's continued bad with a 6.26 ERA with one quality start in four outings this season. Bauer already has surrenderd 11 extra-base hits in 23 innings, including five homers. Bauer has a 7.24 career ERA versus the Tigers in 11 appearances, including 10 starts.
Norris, by contrast, has a 2-0 mark with a 1.69 ERA in four career starts versus the Indians.