Bruce Marshall
Baltimore at Boston
Pick: Baltimore
Rick Porcello's season thus far has been nothing to write home about, as aside from one good start vs. the Blue Jays on April 19 (a game the Bosox actually lost), Porcello has a 6.26 ERA in his four other starts. And in his dominating 2016 campaign, Porcello did not have an easy time vs. Baltimore, just 1-1 with a 3.13 ERA in three starts vs. the Birds. This is a decent price for the O's and surprisingly effective starter Dylan Bundy, with a 1.65 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 32.2 innings.
SPORTS WAGERS
Baltimore/BOSTON Under 8½
We’re committed to playing one baseball total daily for the remainder of the year and if it works out, we’ll start posting more. We’re studying weather conditions and how it affects the flight of the baseball. The effect of humidity on air density is very slight and is actually opposite what it is commonly purported to be. The common reputation of humidity is that it is heavy; however, this is a misnomer. Humidity is actually light for a projectile to fly through, because there is more hydrogen in humid air than in dry air, which contains a larger percentage of nitrogen. And, of course, nitrogen is heavier than hydrogen.
There is a scale that takes into account humidity, as well as temperature and elevation-related barometric pressure that gives us an Air Density Index reading at every ballpark or zip code and the reading today at Fenway is 72,64, which is higher than yesterday’s reading between the Cubs and Red Sox, where the final was 6-2 but it was 2-1 going to the eighth inning. A Cubs error in the eighth led to two Boston runs and the game still went under the number. The two teams combined for just 11 hits. The temperature in Boston is just 49.8 (°F).
Keep in mind that Coors Field Air Density Index reading is generally in the low 50’s while almost all other parks are between 60 and 80. Also keep in mind that low Air Density Index means high scoring and a high reading means low scoring. This is a high reading with two very decent pitchers going. Also note that both teams are coming off intense series on the weekend that generated a lot of fanfare and interest so there is a letdowm factor on a Monday night in play here too.
Please keep in mind that we’re still experimenting with these readings when applying them to baseball totals. We’re fine tuning it as we go along but we’ve put in the work and have a clear understanding of how this all works. This looks like the best total of the day.
Bill Biles
Rockets +6
The Rockets are feeling good about their team after a huge series win over OKC The Spurs had a piCal series vs the Grizzles and might be a little banged up A matchup of harden vs Lenard is going to be the highlight of this series Look for the Rockets to maybe steal game one, but if they don't it will stIll be a close game
Jeff Benton
Monday night comp play on the Raptors plus the points to cover at the Cavaliers.
Cleveland has not played since April 23rd, so expect the Cavs to get off to a slow start in this semifinal series against a Toronto team that they beat in the Eastern Conference Finals last May.
The Raptors were successful during the regular season against the Cavaliers, as they won outright in one of the two series meetings at Quicken Loans Arena, and they covered in both with the points at Cleveland.
Toronto closed out their opening round series with 3 straight wins and covers over Milwaukee, while Cleveland is still just 3-5 against the spread their last 8 games dating back to the regular season.
I will take my chances and grab the points as the Raptors keep Game One close.
1* TORONTO
Brad Wilton
Monday's comp play is the Rockets plus the points at the Spurs.
San Antonio was able to snare the last 3 series meetings against Houston during the regular season, but the Rockets picked up the against the spread win the last time these teams did meet, and Houston's one straight up win this year did come at San Antonio back in early November.
Houston has the shooters to stay within striking distance this evening in Game One, and the fact of the matter is the Spurs aren't getting any younger as they go deeper into the postseason this May.
I have a feeling the Rockets have a real shot at winning this game outright as they look to advance in the playoffs. Why not take the points in that case?
Siding with Houston plus the points y'all.
3* HOUSTON
Jack Brayman
My free play for today is on the New York Mets, over the Atlanta Braves. And in this game, I want you listing both scheduled starting pitchers, as I like New York right-hander Robert Gsellman over Atlanta right-hander Julio Teheran in a rematch from just last week.
Gsellman (0-2, 8.23) is looking for his first win of the season, and I think this is a great spot.
Not only is he out for revenge, but the Mets are too, after Atlanta took a two-game series in New York last week.
The Braves are back home after a 4-4 road trip. And even though they have won four of the last five games, the Mets are in after taking two of three at Washington over the weekend. And while I know New York has lost 11 of its past 14 and was beaten 23-5 by the Nationals on Sunday, the line is dictating the sharp side of this game.
Think about it...
The Braves won both in New York and are on a 4-1 run. The Mets have struggled offensively, have lost 11 of 14 including yesterday's shellacking.
Yet the oddsmakers opened the Mets +110, and it is down to +105. Why aren't the Braves bigger favorites?
The play here is on New York, and list both.
4* METS
Chris Jordan
I'm not sure what the Run Line price will be, as there is always a delay with the number in Chicago Cubs games at Wrigley Field, but I'm taking the baby bears against the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Cubs return home after a weekend set in Beantown, and after losing 6-2 to the Boston Red Sox in the Sunday night TV game, I think we'll see Chicago take its frustration out in this series lid-lifter.
The Phillies come in hobbling on a three-game losing streak, after enjoying a six-game win streak prior to that. The last thing they need, after being knocked around by the Dodgers in Los Angeles, is to have to visit Wrigley Field and face an angry Cubs team.
After going 7-2 at home in the season's first month in 2016, the Cubs are a meager 4-5 at Wrigley this season, so they'll have added motivation on May Day, to start the second month with a huge win. Shouldn't be a problem against a Phillies team that is 4-8 on the road this season.
1* CUBS -1.5
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for Monday night is on the Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line, over the San Francisco Giants.
This continues to be the strongest rivalry on the West Coast, and quite frankly might be the fiercest in the National League. The West division rivals get together for the series lidlifter in East L.A., and my money is on a rout.
The teams split a series in San Francisco last week, which included a trio of one-run games and extra innings in the fourth.
Things will be different this week, as the Dodgers will be prepared for San Francisco's pitching, and their hitters will have their timing down at home.
The Dodgers have won four in a row and six of their past eight games, having overcome a handful of injuries. This is an important homestand, and an even more important series to start the record.
They should have no trouble against the Giants, who have the worst record on the senior circuit.
Take the Dodgers on the Run Line.
4* DODGERS -1.5
Mike Rose
Indians at Detroit
Play: Over 8.5
The Tribe flat out owned this rivalry last season winning 14 of the 18 overall skirmishes. But with Bauer on the bump, I find it hard to envision them getting this series started off on the right foot. Detroit has murdered him throughout his career. At the same time, I’m not exactly sure I’m ready to start trusting Norris either regardless of the fact that he’s excelled against the Indians in his career. With that, the best course of action might just be to root for both teams and look for the offenses to set the tone in the opener. This has been a high scoring rivalry of late with the over cashing in nine of the last 11 confrontations. Should Cleveland force Norris out of the game early, it would only make the matchup that much juicier with Carlos Santana and company readily able to eat against the league’s worst bullpen.
Bob Balfe
Pirates/Reds Over 8.5
The Pirates have been awful against right handed pitching so they will get relief today facing a left handed starter. Cincinnati always has power in their bats and I expect the Pirates to jump out early with runs against the lefty pitcher. This is one of those games that goes over the total before the 5th inning.
OC Dooley
Capitals -105
At most offshore locations it was Pittsburgh who opened as a substantial home favorite (-135) so the swing in the line indicates that despite losing twice on their own home ice, Washington (best regular season record) still is alive and well in this series. In game-two Washington actually OUTSHOT Pittsburgh, but more importantly they held a PLAYERS ONLY meeting following the setback which to me is an indicator they will be on the "same page" this evening. This is an excellent percentage move as in the past TWO YEARS after a game where they allowed the opposition to put 5+ goals on the scoreboard, Washington almost always (dazzling 11-1 record) rallies. Also long term after a blowout loss of 3+ goals in margin, Washington has WON 14 of the past 17 chances in that situation holding the opposition to just 1.8 goals per contest