DAVE COKIN
ROCKIES VS. PADRES
PLAY: ROCKIES +110
Jonathan Gray has some horrendous base numbers through his first two starts. But dig a little deeper and it’s easy to see some encouraging numbers. The BB/K is terrific. What isn’t is Gray’s luck and if you saw the start against the Pirates, you know what I mean. There was some incredibly bad luck on soft contact, and that’s just random stuff that can’t be predicted. What can be is a correction coming on an amazing .519 BABIP. I would look for much better results for Gray tonight.
The flip side is struggling James Shields. One of the comparatives I like to look at is month by month data from one year to the next, particularly when it comes to velocity, as I think that’s a more accurate indicator. Shields was notably down when looking at April 2015 next to April 2016. Not surprisingly, his K rate is the lowest it’s ever been, and his control also hasn’t been especially good. Shields looks like a pitcher in clear decline.
The Padres are horrible offensively at home vs. righties and Colorado is arriving on a high after winning three straight at Arizona. I’ll take the small plus with the Rockies here.
Sleepyj
Houston -1.5 +105
If ever the Astros needed a turn around game this is the one..Houston has te ace on the mound and they hold the AL West worst record..Not what I expected this season at all...Still getting Keuchel on the mound at home should be helpful...The Stros bats have been cold, but the road trip was a rough one..Perhaps getting back home will wake them up..They are scattered as far as hitters go right now..A few guys hitting and the rest are silent..That won;t get them back in this race for this division..They need to start putting hits and runs together..I would not be shocked if the Stros start to play small ball just to get the mojo moving..Twins are not very good this either..A few guys struggling in the middle of the lineup..Mauer has been really solid, but if Kuechel can keep him and Sano off the bases the Astros have a good shot here..I'll lay the RL and grab Houston at a decent price..I think they wakeup.
Rob Vinciletti
Rangers vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -140
Toronto has won 4 of 5 when the posted total is 9 to 9.5. They have Texas traveling in tonight and the Rangers are 0-3 as a road dog in this range. The Jays fit a solid 22-4 league wide system that plays on home favorites off a road win, vs an opponent that arrives off a home favored loss. Texas lost at home to LA on Sunday and now have to face Knuckle ball pitcher R.A. Dickey. Look for Toronto to take the opener.
Stephen Nover
Phillies vs. Cardinals
Play: Phillies +164
We all know a regression is in order for the Phillies, who are 15-10 despite being outscored by 16 runs and tied for last in the National League in runs per game at 3.3.
But the notion to start fading the Phillies is superseded - at least for this game - by this value price. How often can you take this high of a price with a team that has won nine of 10, including six in a row, has a hot bullpen and a starter off his best outing of the season against a below .500 opponent whose starting pitcher has a 7.16 ERA?
The answer is not often enough. So hence a recommendation on Philadelphia against St. Louis, which has yet to get its groove losing its past four games by a combined 14 runs. The Cardinals are 1-8 against opponents sporting a winning record.
What we get with the Phillies is a lot of luck - so far - as they are 8-2 in one-run games and 3-0 in extra innings. But we also get a high-energy, confident, semi-youthful team that is playing on house money in the early going. The Phillies also have proven themselves on the road winning seven of eight games.
Philadelphia's under-the-radar bullpen has allowed one run during its past 21 innings. Phillies starter Jeremy Hellickson just shut out the Nationals, 3-0, this past Wednesday yielding only two hits with eight strikeouts in seven innings. Hellickson has been much better on the road going 2-0 with an 0.96 ERA in three away outings. No Cardinals batter has had more than six at bats against Hellickson, who came to the National League last season after pitching for Tampa Bay for five years.
Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright carries the big name being a two-time Cy Young Award winner. But he's 34 and struggling since missing most of last season with an Achilles tendon injury. He's 1-3 with a 7.16 ERA this season.
Wainwright definitely should improve on those numbers as he continues to shake off the rust. But it's difficult to envision him returning to his one-time stud status.
Marc Lawrence
Rockies vs. Padres
Play: Padres -133
Edges - Padres: James Shields 10-0 his last ten team starts during May; and 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA in his home career team starts versus the Rockies. With Shields 0-5 in his team starts this season despite owning a sharp 3.55 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP, look for him to break into the win column tonight. We recommend a 1* play on San Diego.
Art Aronson
Minnesota at Houston
Play: Houston -175
If you don’t mind laying some juice, we think that Astros’ ace Dallas Keuchel is worth the price of admission in this spot. The visitors send Jose Berrios (0-1, 11.25 ERA) to the hill, he was rocked for five runs off six hits over four innings in his MLB debut vs. the Indians on Wednesday. Berrios is a converted short-stop and may need some more time in the minors to round out his game, but the Twins are desperate for starting pitching. Keuchel (2-3, 4.41 ERA) is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up five runs off six hits with two walks and five K’s over six innings in an 11-1 loss at Seattle on Tuesday. Keuchel will be glad to see the calendar flip to May after a frustrating April but remember, the 28-year-old southpaw would go 15-0 with a 1.46 ERA at home last season. This is a mismatch of epic proportions, consider laying the price.
Martin Griffiths
Werder Bremen vs. VfB Stuttgart
Play: Werder Bremen PK½ +104
This is a huge game for both sides, both are fighting for their Bundesliga survival and with just three games to go, including this one, a win would be of massive proportions.
Lets put some context into this game
Werder Bremen are on 31 points and lie second bottom, Stuttgart are on 33 points and are fourth bottom, the bottom two get relegated automatically and the third bottom goes into a play off.
So you can see what a win would do for either team, if Werder were to win they would go above Stuttgart and take over the fourth from bottom spot, if Stuttgart were to win they would go from fourth bottom to fifth bottom.
A draw is not a total disaster, but both teams really need the win, especially Werder Bremen.
Werder have won just three times at home, drawn five and lost on seven occasions, the same exact figures apply to Stuttgart away from home.
So we have two relegation fighting sides with home side useless at home and the away side useless on the road.
But, Werder are in slightly better form, they are at home and they are certainly no worse than what Stuttgart have been this season, Stuttgart have won just once in their last ten Bundesliga games and that was at home, while Werder have at least won two of their last four home games and strangely enough have lost just once at home in their last eight Bundesliga games.
All things considered I can see Werder Bremen winning this game in front of their home fans.
Larry Ness
Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers open a four-game series in Toronto, visiting for the first time since early last October, when they lost to the Blue Jays in Game 5 of the ALDS. Jose Bautista’s bat flip heard 'round North America (Bautista stood at home plate to admire his drive, enthusiastically flipping his bat high in the air) clearly angered many on the Rangers. It should be interesting to see how Texas starter A.J. Griffin (3-0, 2.52 ERA) handles things (Bautista’s first AB), noting that he spent the entire 2015 season with Oakland while recovering from elbow surgery.
Griffin has sure pitched well to open his career with Texas, allowing three or fewer runs in each of his four April outings (Rangers are 3-1). The 28-year-old is coming off his best start of MLB’s first month, holding the Yankees to one run on four hits over eight innings while striking out five in a win on Tuesday. Griffin has never lost to the Blue Jays, posting a 2-0 record with a 2.66 ERA in four starts (teams are 3-1). He hasn't faced the Blue Jays since 2013 but takes on a club looking to avoid its longest home slide in two years.
Toronto hopes to avoid its first four-game home skid since April 2014. R.A. Dickey (1-3, 6.75 ERA) spent his first five seasons with the Rangers and hopes to move past his recent struggles at Rogers Centre. He's allowed 13 runs (12 earned) on 16 hits over 11 innings (9.82 ERA) while losing two home starts. Dickey is coming off the worst April of his career and ended the month getting rocked for six runs on eight hits (including two HRs) in six innings against the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday. The veteran knuckleballer started Game 4 of the ALDS against the Rangers last fall and allowed one run and five hits in 4.2 innings to help Toronto force a Game 5 (did not get a decision). Dickey, who was originally drafted in the first round by Texas in 1996, is 2-2 with a 3.77 ERA in seven career regular-season games (four starts) against the Rangers.
NOTHING is going right for Dickey so far this year, so I’ll back Griffin and take the 'price.'.
Frank Jordan
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs
Play: San Antonio Spurs -7.5
San Antonio didn’t just win in game one they dominated winning 124-92 and this game wasn’t even that close as it was over at halftime when the Spurs were up 73-40 at the break. No Oklahoma City player had 20 points while Aldridge, Leonard and Green had 81 points combined on 34 of 43 which is 79%, 7 of 9 from three 78%, and a perfect 6 of 6 from the foul line. A game for the ages for those three and the team for the Spurs in game one and a game to forget for Oklahoma City who shot 6 of 23 from three which is 26%. Look for a tighter game throughout in game two, but it will be the same result as the Spurs pull away in the fourth and win by double figures.
Power Sports
Minnesota vs. Houston
Pick: Under
One year after making their respective jumps in the standings, both the Twins and Astros are struggling in 2016. They each currently reside in last place in their division and have been the two biggest money losers (in terms of net units) in all of MLB at the betting window. Something has to give in this series and while Houston (with Keuchel starting) may look like the attractive option here, I feel more comfortable recommending the Under.
Keuchel is coming off B2B bad starts. He allowed a total of 11 runs (in 12 IP) to Seattle and Texas, but it's important to note that both of those starts occurred on the road. Why is that important to note? Well, as you probably know, Keuchel is a much different (i.e. better) pitcher at home. His WL record here at Minute Maid Park is a perfect 17-0 over his L22 starts (20-2 TSR) and he has a sterling 1.47 ERA to go along with that outstanding record. His last home start saw him deal eight scoreless innings of five-hit ball against Detroit on April 15th. His career ERA (in three starts) vs. Minnesota is 2.30. The bullpen has been a bit worrisome for the Astros this season, but moreso on the road. When it comes to runs allowed, I feel the home team will "do its job" tonight.
As for Minnesota, they will send highy touted prospect Jose Berrios to the bump. His big league debut did not go particularly well, but there was a long weather delay and cold conditions in Cleveland. I think he should fare better here in the friendlier Houston climate. Also, facing an Astros lineup that has scored just one run in three of its previous four games should be a big help as well. Look for a low-scoring game here.
Jim Feist
Texas at Toronto
Pick: Over
The Rangers are in a bunch at the top of the AL West with the rest of the division, with just two games separating 1st and fourth. The Rangers are the third highest scoring team in the A.L. and scored 17 runs in their three game set with the Angels. The Blue Jays took two of three from the Rays, including Sunday's 5-1 win. R.A. Dickey will try and get back on track today. Dickey is 1-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. The Jays are 6-2-2 O/U in Dickey's last 10 starts and 4-0-1 O/U in his last five home starts. The way Texas is hitting and Dickey is pitching I look for this game to go OVER.
Scott Spreitzer
Los Angeles at Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee
Jered Weaver has "escaped" his first four starts without a lot of damage, but we believe he's soon to be in trouble. Weaver's average fastball was less than 85 mph in his most recent start, and he induced just six swinging strikes in six innings of work, according to ESPN. We have been waiting for value on an opposing side when Weaver takes the hill and we believe we're getting it here.
Oskeim Sports
Oklahoma City at San Antonio
Pick: Oklahoma City
Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook looked defeated following Oklahoma City's Game 1 dismantling at the hands of the Spurs. When asked if he could describe his feelings after the game, Durant pivoted his focus to Game 2. "Because it's over with," Durant explained. "Move on. We just move past it and figure out what we have to do better. No crazy emotions. It's not like we were upset and screaming at each other in the locker room after the game. That's not going to make things better. We've just got to go out there and play better. So, no emotions."
The concern for Oklahoma City backers is the fact that the Thunder have never played well in San Antonio, amassing a 1-6 record at the AT&T Center in the postseason with an average margin of defeat of 25.1 points in those six losses. Yikes! Adding to Oklahoma City's dilemma is the fact that the Spurs are 25-4 in best-of-seven series after winning Game 1 under head coach Gregg Popovich. And, only three teams have come back to win a playoff series after losing Game 1 by 30 or more points.
However, if there is a team capable of responding after suffering such a humiliating loss it's the Thunder, who are 4-1 ATS in their last five games off a double-digit loss and 9-3 ATS in their last twelve games versus teams with a winning record, including 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games versus foes with a .601 or greater home record. Meanwhile, San Antonio is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games off a double-digit win and 1-5 ATS in its last six games versus .601 or greater opponents. The Thunder are also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.
Oklahoma City possesses an explosive offense that is averaging 110.1 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field, and the Thunder were 25-19 SU on the road this season where they averaged 111.1 points per game on 47.7% shooting from the floor. While the coaching mismatch in this series is significant (I have Billy Donovan rated in the bottom 3rd of my rankings), I expect the first-year coach to emphasize more pick-and-role plays between Westbrook (ball handler) and Durant (screener).
I say that because this pick-and-role combination averaged 1.19 points per direct pick against the Spurs over the past three seasons (including postseason). Oklahoma City will also need greater contributions from Steve Adams, who is vastly improved, and Enes Kanter. The coaching mismatch concerns me, there is no questions about that. Poppovich is the best coach in the league and known for making excellent mid-series adjustments to keep his opponent off-balance. But, I was also impressed with the steady leadership of Donovan following the Thunders' Game 2 loss to Dallas.
Finally, both head-to-head matchups at full strength were decided by 8 points or fewer so the point spread for Game 2 appears to be an overreaction San Antonio's blowout win in Game 1. Grab the generous points as Oskeim Sports Free Pick for Monday.
Will Rogers
Atlanta vs. Cleveland
Pick: Atlanta
The Cleveland Cavaliers swept the Pistons in their Eastern Conference first round series while the Atlanta Hawks defeated the Celtics in six games. I think Atlanta can upset the Cavs in the opener of their Quarterfinals series at Quicken Loans Arena Monday night, and I'm taking the visitors plus the points.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Cleveland's Recent Games - The Cavs may have swept the Pistons, but they did so in a rather unconvincing fashion with only one of the games decided by more than 10 points and two of the contests within five points.
2. Atlanta's Defense - The Hawks held the Celtics to 38.8 percent shooting from the field and 28.7 percent on 3-pointers over the first five games in the series. They stepped it up even further in the clincher holding the Celtics to 36.2 percent from the field and 21.9 percent from 3-point range, and the Hawks D can very well keep them in this game.
3. X-Factor - Paul Millsap has averaged 24 points per game over the past three games and his presence inside will be key to Atlanta's success.
Chip Chirimbes
Hawks at Cavs
Play:Cavs -7.5
In last season's Playoff action these two met in the Eastern Conference Finals as the Cavaliers Swept Atlanta 4-0. LeBron James carried Cleveland at that time and dominated the series with 30.3 points, 11 rebounds and 9.3 assists but this time teammates Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving are healthy and doing their part. The home team just has too much fire-power for plotting Atlanta. Hawks get grounded here.