Wunderdog
Atlanta @ Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland -7.5
Cleveland swept the Hawks in last year's Eastern Conference Finals with LeBron James averaging 30.3 points in the series. The Cavaliers have had eight days to rest and prepare for Round 2 while Atlanta is coming off a tough, six-game series against Boston. Cleveland won and covered all three regular season meetings, including a 110-108 loss at Atlanta on April 1 as a 2.5-point underdog when both teams shot just 40 percent from the floor. In the last meeting on April 11, Paul Millsap was held to nine points on 3-of-14 shooting. Kyrie Irving poured in 31 points in Game 4 against the Pistons as the Cavs won again with a bad overall shooting night making just 41.9 percent. Atlanta is 1-6 ATS its last seven road games and 2-8 ATS with at least three days rest. Cleveland has covered the spread six of the last eight games at home against the Hawks.
Greg Shaker
Texas +138
Exactly what is not to like about the Rangers tonight? Griffin has been mostly sharp, Dickey has been mostly NOT Sharp. And the fact is this Knuckle Guy does not really absolutely like throwing here in Toronto, especially when the Roof is securely attached. Griffin as well has had some success throwing at the Jays Hitters. Extra Motivation in this game following the "Bautista Toss" Bullpens favor Toronto overall but the last 5 games for each has seen the Texas Pen outdo the Jays. The fact is Toronto's Second Line Throwers are sporting an ERA near 7 in their last 5 worked. No Advantage for the Home Team as far as travel is concerned since they flew in from Tampa overnight as well. Great Value here with the nice dog.
Teddy Davis
Rockies vs. Padres
Play: Padres +102
I like the value here with Padres tonight as they aren't getting any credit after nearly sweeping the Dodgers, but lost 1-0 thanks to a great performance by Kershaw. The Rockies swept the Diamondbacks and are getting a little to much respect sending Jon Gray to the mound who has been tagged in both starts so far and has an ERA over 11. Despite James Shields 0-4 record he has pitched well with an ERA of 3.55, just not getting any run support. Shields is 6-2 against the Rockies for his career.
Ray Monohan
Capitals vs. Penguins
Play: Penguins -140
Pittsburgh returns to CONSOL Energy Arena, a place that has treated them very well. The Pens have gone 28-12-1-3 at home and are scoring well above 3 goals per game. The Pens have also been getting contributions all around.
C Evgeni Malkin continues to be a giant spark plug for this team. Malkin has a point in all 6 games since returning to the lineup and has compiled 3 goals and 6 assists in that span.
Pittsburgh has the momentum here as well. They did exactly what they needed to do stealing one game on the road and have home ice in their favor.
Some trends to consider. Penguins are 21-5 in their last 26 games playing on 1 days rest. Penguins are 14-4 in their last 18 games following a win. Penguins are 20-6 in their last 26 vs. Eastern Conference.
With the momentum on their side, the Penguins get another solid showing from their offense, especially Malkin and Crosby, as they take a 2-1 lead in the series.
Jeff Alexander
Padres +108
Love the value we are getting here with a division home dog in the Padres against the Rockies. Colorado is getting too much respect here off a 3-game sweep at Arizona, especially with struggling youngster Jon Gray on the mound, who has allowed 11 runs on 16 hits in 2 starts (8 2/3 innings). I'll gladly take my chances here going against Gray with the Padres sending out their ace James Shields, who comes in with a 2.70 ERA and 1.200 WHIP over his last 3 starts. The month of May has been a profitable time to back Shields, as his team is 11-1 over 12 starts in the month over the last 3 seasons.
Jack Jones
San Diego Padres +108
I like the value we are getting with the San Diego Padres as home underdogs to the Colorado Rockies today. I would argue that they actually have the advantage on the mound in this one and shouldn't be dogs because of it.
James Shields may sport an 0-4 record this year, but it's not for poor performance. The right-hander has posted a 3.55 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in five starts this season, including a 2.70 ERA in his last three outings.
Jon Gray is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here considering how awful he has been. Gray is 0-2 with an 11.42 ERA and 2.191 WHIP in two starts this season, giving up 11 earned runs and 19 base runners in only 8 2/3 innings pitched.
Shields is 11-1 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in May games over the last three seasons. The Rockies are 2-9 in Gray's last 11 starts overall, including 0-4 in his last four road starts. The Rockies are 5-17 in their last 22 trips to San Diego. The Padres are 4-1 in Shields' last five starts vs. Colorado.
Mike Lundin
Pittsburgh Pirates -105
I like the Pittsburgh Pirates as they host the NL Central-leading Chicago Cubs Monday night.
Jason Hammel (3-0, 0.75 ERA) will take the bump for the Cubs, and while he's off to a fantastic start to the season, he was 1-2 with a 4.35 ERA in four meetings with Pittsburgh last season and he has a 4.03 ERA in 12 career meetings. Pittsburgh's Gerrit Cole (2-2, 2.78) meanwhile has been dominant against the Cubs going 7-1 with a 2.88 ERA in nine career meetings.
Pirates are 8-2 in Cole's last 10 starts vs. Cubs, Cubs are 1-5 in Hammel's last six starts vs. Pirates and Pirates are 13-3 in Cole's last 16 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Brandon Lee
Oakland A's -103
Oakland took 2 of 3 at home against the Astros over the weekend and I really like this spot at home in the series opener against the Mariners. Seattle has been playing well of late, but are in a tough spot. The Mariners are coming off a big series at home against the defending champs and I look for a letdown here having to Oakland. I also like the pitching matchup. Seattle's Nate Karns has a 4.36 ERA and 1.742 WHIP in 2 road starts and a 5.06 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 2 career starts against the A's, including a start earlier this season where he allowed 4 runs on 7 hits in just 5 innings of work. Oakland will send out Kendall Graveman, who has a 2.38 ERA and 0.883 WHIP in 2 home starts and in his only start against the Mariners (last year), he tossed 7 scoreless innings.
Jimmy Boyd
Texas Rangers +130
This will be the first meeting between these two teams since last year's AL division series, which included that memorable bat flip by Blue Jays' slugger Jose Bautista. The Rangers were not happy with the celebration and I look for them to come out treating this game like it was a playoff matchup to send a message to Toronto.
We are also getting exceptional value here with Texas, as they look to have a major advantage on the mound. A.J. Griffin will start for the Rangers and he's one of the more underrated starters right now. Griffin is 3-0 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in 4 starts. The Blue Jays will counter with the struggling R.A. Dickey, who is 1-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.650 WHIP in 5 starts. Dickey has had a horrible time in his 2 home starts, allowing 13 runs on 16 hits in just 11 innings of work.
Griffin's teams are 23-7 in his last 30 starts at night and 14-5 in his last 19 starts as a underdog of +100 to +150. Rangers are also 12-5 in their last 17 during game 1 of a series and 12-5 in their last 17 on the road against a team with a losing home record. Toronto is 2-6 in their last 8 against a team with a winning record and 0-4 in Dickey's last 4 starts at home.
Michael Alexander
San Francisco Giants -149
The Cincinnati Reds began their roster turnover last summer by trading away ace Johnny Cueto to the Kansas City Royals for a package that included left-hander Brandon Finnegan. Cueto helped the Royals to a World Series championship last fall before signing with San Francisco as a free agent and will face off against Finnegan when the Giants visit the Reds for the opener of a three-game series today. Cueto has gone at least seven innings in each of his first five starts for San Francisco and is coming off his best outing. The Dominican Republic native struck out 11 while scattering seven hits and one walk in a shutout of the San Diego Padres on Tuesday. Cueto is making his first start against his former team and is 48-22 with a 2.91 ERA in 98 career starts at Great American Ball Park.
Matt Josephs
Rockies vs. Padres
Play: Rockies -112
Jon Gray gets his first start outside of Coors Field in 2016 on Monday in San Diego. Gray faced the Pads twice last year allowing one run and six hits over 10 innings of work striking out 11 while walking two. The righty has fantastic stuff, but he has had issues with Coors and trying to keep runs off the scoreboard. He'll face the Padres who are hitting .219 at home and .227 vs. right-handed starters. Colorado's bullpen is highly mediocre, but so is San Diego's offense. James Shields is 0-4 with a 3.55 ERA in five outings for the Padres. Shields lost to the Rockies in Colorado back on April 10th giving up four runs and six hits in seven innings. Nolan Arenado (12-23, 4 HR), Carlos Gonzalez (9-25, 3 HR) and DJ LeMahieu (5-18) enjoy facing the Padres righty. Colorado is now 8-4 on the road after a sweep of the Diamondbacks. They are hitting .285 in night games and are averaging over five runs per contest. I think the Rox keep things going on Monday night.
Dave Price
Texas Rangers +137
You certainly have to question whether or not the oddsmakers have the wrong team favored here between the Rangers and Blue Jays when you take a look at the starting pitching matchup. A.J. Griffin is 3-0 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in 4 starts this season for the Rangers. He gave up just 1 earned run over 8 innings of a 10-1 victory over the Yankees in his last turn. R.A. Dickey has lost it for the Blue Jays, going 1-3 with a 6.57 ERA and 1.650 WHIP in 5 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 9.82 ERA and 1.727 WHIP in 2 home starts. Griffin is 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.131 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts vs. Toronto.
Alex Smart
Texas Rangers +137
The Rangers starting pitcher Griffin held the Yankees to one run in eight innings of top tier work in his last start. Opponents are now hitting just .189 off him, including .162 vs right-handed hitters. That not good news for a Blue Jays team that he is 2-0 against , along with a stingy 2.66 ERA in four career starts. Meanwhile, Torontos starting hurler, Dickey is off a horrendous start as is evident by a 6.75 ERA in April, the highest mark of his career for that month. He is 2-2 with a 3.77 ERA in 7 career outings vs. his former team Texas.Blue Jays are 0-4 in Dickeys last 4 starts and 1-4 in his L/5 home sarts. The Rangers are 12-5 in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record like the Jays and look like soild propositions today on a value line vs a struggling thrower.
SPORTS WAGERS
Seattle -102 over OAKLAND
Kendall Graveman is a groundball specialist that was sidelined the last five weeks of last season with a strained oblique. He’s made four starts this year and it’s the same ‘ol, same ‘ol. Graveman doesn't miss a ton of bats, so like many of his kind, he relies on command and the slings and arrows of groundball-location fortune (and infield defense). He’s an average starter that has variances between poor, good and strong starts but ultimately needs very good command to succeed. With a 54% first-pitch strike rate and two quality starts in four tries, he continues to be hit and miss.
Nathan Karns is not hit and miss and the Mariners 8-4 road record adds to their appeal here. Karns’ late ERA spike from last season has him under the radar and we are buyers for a number of reasons. Karns’ command uptick coupled with his big first-pitch strike rate and swinging strike rate growth reveals that he’s moving in the right direction. His strong disaster start/dominant start split reflects his high-floor profile. Karns shutout Houston in seven innings on April 26 and Oakland's bats own a .676 OPS in 2016, which is in the bottom one-third of the major leagues. If the A’s have any advantages in this matchup, we’re not seeing them.
Philadelphia (5 innings) +140
On the surface, there was more mediocrity from Jeremey Hellickson last season but there are four reasons to speculate on post-hype potential: 1) surging strikeout rate spiked in second half; 2) good swing and miss % foretells more K’s; 3) great skills in two separate months; 4) halted ominous OPS v righties trend. Hellickson was lit up in his third and fourth starts of the season but responded with a two-hit, seven-inning gem in his latest at Washington. Hellickson is hit and miss but there's still a lot to like in his early skills (28/6 K/BB in 26 IP) and he has a strong 11.7% swing and miss rate too. That said, this one is more a fade against Adam Wainwright, thus the five-inning wager.
The Phillies dropped their first four games of the year but they’ve won 15 of 21 games since including six in a row and nine of 10. They also just swept the Indians and defeated Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer and Danny Salazar in the process. The Indians are not the Cardinals but Adam Wainwright is not Kluber or Salazar. Wainwright earned a win against Arizona on April 27, but he gave up four earned runs in 5.2 innings. Wainwright will try to recover his 7.1 K’s/9 from last year but he owns a 4.6 K’s/9 and a 5.26 xERA in 28 innings this season. Teams are smashing Wainwright's sinker with a 1.721 OPS in 93 pitches in 2016 and his line-drive rate of 35.7% is the 7th worst in the majors among all starters. Wainwright’s infield fly percentage of 3% is also one of the worst marks in the league. In fact, everything is trending the wrong way for Wainwright and his sub-indicators say he’s not going to turn things around anytime soon. With a four-seam fastball that is struggling to break 90 mph and a curveball that is no longer a punch-out pitch (8% swing and miss rate), Wainwright offers very little and cannot be favored in this range against a team as hot and confident as the Phillies are right now.
Harry Bondi
COLORADO +105 over San Diego
While Colorado has been surprisingly very good on the road this year (8-4, +8.5 units), the dismal Padres offense continues to sputter, especially at home where they average just 2.9 runs per game. Having said that, we're not too concerned about Colorado starter Jon Gray's poor numbers in his first few starts because he's been better than what those stats say and San Diego hasn't been able to hit anyone. And if it comes down to a battle of bullpens, which we expect, the Rockies have a huge advantage as the Padres relievers have been hit up for a collective 6.80 ERA at Petco this season. Rockies roll!