Vegas Butcher
Texas Rangers +148
Not sure why a pitcher with a 6.8 ERA is such a heavy favorite. AJ Griffin has looked better and better with each start, as his off-speed stuff has been excellent. Blue Jays have ranked poorly against those types of pitches and their offense overall has been fairly mediocre this year. I have Texas at +110 in this spot and will grab the value with them.
Colorado Rockies (1st 5 Innings Only) -115
Padres have an advantage in the bullpen here so I’ll only play this one for the first 5 innings. The difference here is of course on the offensive end (#9 COL offense vs #28 SD offense) and of course with the starting pitching, both of which greatly favor the Rockies. I don’t need to discuss the offensive advantage as that is pretty obvious. When comparing the two starters, the advantage for the Rockies might not be as clear. In two starts, Gray has an 11.4 ERA as he’s allowed 11 runs in 8.2 innings of work. Those two starts came in Colorado, the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the league. In Gray’s 29.1 career innings there, he has a 9.2 ERA, allowed 5 HR’s, and only a 19% K-rate. In Gray’s 20.0 innings away from the park, he has a 2.7 ERA, 1 HR, and an elite 30% K-rate. Maybe the Rockies need to consider trading this kid away Well, today Gray will take his elite K-rate to one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the league. The fact that he’s facing a bottom-3 offense won’t hurt either.
On the other side we have James Shields, who went from a ‘workhorse’ for KC a few years back, to being a very mediocre pitcher in the NL. Last year we saw a spike in Shields’ K-rate which went up to 25% (21% career mark). This was to be expected as he moved from a tougher AL to a pitcher-friendly NL. At the same time as his K-rate increased, his BB-rate jumped as well, going to a career high of 9.4%, while his HR/9 rate was at 1.5, also a career high. Near elite K-rate kept Shields’ SIERA at 3.7, though his ERA rose to 3.9, a 5-year high. Well, this season, Shields continues to have a horrendous BB-rate (9.7%) and a high HR/9 (1.1). But he’s lost 1 MPH off his fastball, and his K-rate is now a mediocre 16%. Even though his ERA is still at a reasonable 3.6 mark, his SIERA of 4.9 indicates a bottom-25 pitcher in the league so far this season. Why such a discrepancy between his ERA and SIERA? Well, 0.232 BABIP and an 80% strand-rate have a lot to do with it. Colorado has some very strong edges in this one, and if we take the bullpens out of this one, there’s only one play to make in this game.