DAVE COKIN
ATHLETICS AT MARINERS
PLAY: MARINERS -125
Two streaks on the line tonight as the A’s and Mariners get a series started at Safeco. Oakland heads to Seattle off a wrong way sweep at the hands of the Yankees. The M’s are back home after dusting off the hapless Reds en route to completing another terrific road trip.
The downside here is I have to try and beat Rich Hill, who has been outstanding for the A’s and already dominated the Mariners at this site once this season. Hill is quite a story, as his career was basically over following an endless run of injuries. He’s looking like a good bet to pitching in July at the All-Star game in San Diego, and this is truly remarkable.
Taijuan Walker will be on the hill for the hosts, and he’s fallen off his early season pace to some extent. Nevertheless, Walker is entirely capable of getting right back on track with his arsenal of outstanding stuff, and I think he has a good chance to do exactly that against what is currently not much of an Oakland lineup.
I think the A’s are a pretty bad baseball team. They don’t hit much, the team defense is lousy, the bullpen is erratic and I don’t think there’s anything fluky about their negative run differential. Last year’s A’s were a weird team, as they let so many wins get away late. This year’s squad simply isn’t very good and they got even worse when Josh Reddick hit the DL, as he was their most efficient offensive player.
The Mariners have not played especially well at home this season, and they’re also missing what has turned out to be a pleasant surprise in shortstop Ketel Marte. But the M’s are coming home hot and the Athletics are hitting the road not. Hill is definitely an obstacle to be concerned about as a good pitcher who’s on his game can basically win a game by himself. But aside from that concern, everything else here would seem to point Seattle’s way, and the price is not by any means unreasonable. I’ll therefore try to beat the tough lefty and will go ahead with a call on the Mariners.
Rob Vinciletti
Tampa Bay at Miami
Play: Miami -120
The Marlins are 5-1 vs left handers and average over 5 runs in those games. They are 5-0 on Mondays and fit a solid 84% system that plays on home favorites off a home dog loss by 5 or more runs scoring 2 or less runs, vs a team off a rod dog loss like Tampa. We will back Chen here over Matt Moore who has lost his last 3 starts and has an elevated 8.36 era in those losses. With Tampa 0-5 on the road off a road loss by 5 or more we will make it Miami tonight.
Mike Lundin
Cubs vs. Cardinals
Play: Cubs -112
The MLB-leading Chicago Cubs are enduring a tough stretch with just four wins in their past 11 games. Tonight they'll visit NL Central division rivals the St. Louis Cardinals for the opener of a three-game set though, and I expect the Cubs to step up their game for this contest.
Former Cardinal John Lackey (4-2, 3.31 ERA) will take the ball for Chicago and he's been red hot lately, posting a 1.86 ERA over his last four turns. He held the Cardinals scoreless over seven innings of four-hit ball with 11 Ks here at Busch Stadium on April 18.
The Cardinals turn to Adam Wainwright (4-3, 5.92) who will face the Cubs for the first time this season. He is 12-7 with a 3.95 ERA in 37 career games against Chicago but his 1.53 WHIP this season must be a huge concern for the veteran. Cubs are 46-12 in their last 58 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Cubs are 7-1 in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning record. Cardinals are 1-5 in their last six home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Cubs are 5-1 in the last six meetings.
Marc Lawrence
New York at Washington
Play: Washington -145
Edges - Nationals; Gio Gonzalez 12-4 last sixteen team starts in this series; and 11-4 home career team starts during the month of May. Mets: Bartolo Colon 3-6 career team starts versus Washington; and 5.09 away ERA as opposed to 2.66 home ERA this season. With Gonzalez in super-sharp form with a 1.16 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP at home this season, we recommend a 1* play on Washington.
Scott Spreitzer
Phillies vs. Tigers
Play: Over 8½
The Phils' offense should be getting "just what the doctor ordered," tonight, having owned Mike Pelfrey over the years and we expect more of the same in this one. They've tagged the right-hander for a 5.08 ERA & 1.48 WHIP in 21 starts. The Tiger hurler has been smacked around in eight starts in 2016. Pelfrey has a horribly low strikeout rate with just 23 in 41 innings, while allowing eight home runs, for a 1.76 HR / 9 IP ratio. The Phillies will counter with one of the young studs in the game, right-hander Vince Velasquez. But while his overall numbers look decent, Velasquez has gone past six innings just once in eight starts this season and his road ERA (4.13 in four starts) is nearly 3 1/2 runs higher than it is at home (0.74 in four starts). The Philly righty will face a Tiger offense that's heating up, ranked first in MLB in team batting average & OPS, and second in OBP over the last week of action, covering six games. Detroit has also fared well in those same offensive categories at home this season. We should note that the Phillies are on a 14-1 Over run and average 5.2 rpg against starting pitchers who allow an average of at least one HR per start, while the Tigers are on an 8-1 Over run in IL action, piling up 5.8 rpg.
Art Aronson
Rays vs. Marlins
Play: Over 7½
The visitors hand the ball to Matt Moore (1-3, 5.09 ERA) who was rocked for four runs off seven hits and a walk while striking out three over five innings in an eventual 7-6 loss to Oakland on Sunday. Moore has now failed to throw more than five innings in any of his last three starts, managing just an 11:8 K:BB ratio in 14 innings over that stretch. The home side counters with the equally as volatile Wei-Yin Chen (3-2, 4.22) who gave up three runs off six hits over six innings in a loss to the Phillies on Tuesday. Note that Chen owns a poor 1-1, 4.85 ERA record at home this season. This number seems a little low, consider a second look at the OVER.
Larry Ness
Los Angeles at Texas
Prediction: Texas
The Rangers and Angels have already met seven times in 2016, with the teams splitting a four-game series at Angel Stadium in early April before the Rangers took two of three in Arlington from April 29-May 1. The Texas pitching staff had a 1.00 ERA in a three-game sweep at Houston over the weekend and now Derek Holland will try to keep the positive mojo going. Holland is 3-3 with a 5.63 ERA on the season in eight starts (team is 4-4) but got back on track Monday when he gave up just two runs over six innings of a 3-1 loss at Oakland. That effort came after he allowed 15 ERs over five innings in his two previous starts.
Nick Tropeano (2-2, 3.30 ERA) gets the nod for the Angels and he ended a six-game winless drought and worked past the sixth inning for the first time this season this past Wednesday, allowing only one run on seven hits over seven innings to get the decision in an 8-1 victory over the Dodgers. The 25-year-old did not allow a homer after surrendering SEVEN over his previous four turns and also note that he has given up more than three runs only ONCE in eight 2016 starts (Angels are 4-4). However, Tropeano has lost both of his previous starts against the Rangers, surrendering a total of eight runs in 12.2 innings (5.68 ERA).
Getting back to Holland, he’s 9-6 with a 5.22 ERA in 22 career starts against the Angels (team is 13-9) but has gone 3-0 with a 2.49 ERA in four starts (Rangers are 3-1) going back to 2015. When the teams last met in Arlington three weeks ago, Holland limited the Angels to four hits over six shutout innings in a 7-2 victory. Considering the Angels are just 2-6 vs lefties in night games so far in 2016 (averaging only 2.75 RPG), expect Holland to grab another win over LA in this one.
Jim Feist
Angels at Rangers
Pick: Over
The Angels got off to a rocky start this season, but have now won seven of their last 10 games. Now they start their series at Texas today. Nick Tropeano starts Monday for the Halos. Tropeano is 2-2 this season with a 3.30 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. The 25-year-old has pitched past the sixth inning just one time in his eight starts this season. The Rangers have won three straight and six of 10. Texas is 25-19 and 1 1/2 games back of Seattle for first place in the AL West. The Rangers just swept their intra-state rivals Houston, holding the Astros to just four runs in three games. Derek Holland starts today with a 3-3 record, 5.63 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Neither of these pitchers are very good, both have high WHIPS, which means lots of runners.
Bill Biles
Padres vs. Giants
Play: Giants -1.5
The Giants and Johnny Cueto will try to get their seventh straight win over the NL West rivals and 11th in 12 games overall Monday night in the opener of a three-game series at AT&T Park. San Francisco starters have a 1.90 ERA over six meetings with the Padres. Cueto who is 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA hopes to capture his fourth consecutive win. Look for the Giants to continue to dominant the Padres.
Sleepyj
Kansas City -123
I'll jump on board with the Royals today...Nolasco can be good at times, but IMO it's for short spurts..Going to be tough shutting down this Royals lineup for him today...Kennedy will give up his hits, but the better hitting team will come away winners here..Overall I just trust the Royals and they are due to get real hot here sooner or later.
Nelly
Oakland Athletics + over Seattle Mariners
An Oakland team that has competed reasonably well this season wiped away last week's four-game winning streak by being on the wrong end of a four-game sweep vs. the Yankees at home over the weekend. With just nine runs in the four games the offense failed and Taijuan Walker is certainly a tough matchup Monday night. Walker has shown severe regression in May however after a brilliant month of April. In four April starts he struck out 25 while allowing four earned runs, so far in May through four starts he has struck out 16 while allowing 14 runs, including at least three runs allowed in each start. Walker made his 2016 debut vs. Oakland in a decent outing with seven hits and two runs allowed over six innings but the Mariners have oddly been a much worse performing team at home. Safeco is a pitcher's park and Seattle is batting just .216 at home this season and the Mariners have a much worse season record vs. left-handed pitching. Rich Hill has been a terrific comeback story as a former top prospect for the Cubs who broke into the big leagues in 2005. He pitched minimally from 2008-2011 before regaining a job in various bullpens, bouncing around several organizations. He has blossomed this season for Oakland with a 2.54 ERA posting 10.7 K/9 and already picking up six wins. His command can be a little spotty at times but a fierce curveball is still his trademark and he gave Seattle fits early in the season with 10 strikeouts in six innings. Oakland actually has three more road wins than Seattle has home wins this season as escaping the Coliseum and heading to a park that should suit Hill well should be favorable for the underdog Athletics tonight.
Bruce Marshall
A's at Mariners
Play: A's +119
The Mariners are back at home, which this season isn't terribly good news considering problems at Safeco Field, where Seattle was swept by the Angels in its last home series before winning 5 of 6 on the road. Recent efforts from M's starter Taijuan Walker (8 runs allowed in 10 2/3 IP over his last two starts) have not encouraged, either. Meanwhile, the only times we are comfy with an Oakland recommendation these days s when Rich Hill is on the mound, as the A's have won in five of his last six starts.
Wunderdog
Cleveland @ Toronto
Pick: Under 198
A pivotal Game 4, so expect both defenses to shine. These teams are allowing roughly three points per game less than they did during the regular season, which is common come playoff time as coaches demand intense defense. These teams were tops in the East during the regular season in points allowed, plus Top 4 in the NBA. Toronto is home and will play intense defense with so much at stake, on a 20-9 run UNDER the total against the Eastern Conference, plus 14-6 UNDER after a victory. Cleveland is 49-23 UNDER the total against the Atlantic Division. With the talented Cavaliers matching up well, and with a chip on their shoulder, plus the UNDER being 22-5-1 when they meet in Toronto, look for a defensive duel.
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the Sharks and Blues to get back to their low-scoring ways, and play this Game Five Under the total at Scott Trade Center.
Prior to Saturday's 9 goals combined explosion, the teams have played 4 straight Unders dating back to the regular season.
With the series tied at 2-2, I expect the teams to revert to their defensive-minded ways, and for the goals to be difficult to come by once again.
San Jose and St. Louis play this "swing game" close to the vest.
Sharks-Blues Under in Game Five.
2* SAN JOSE-ST. LOUIS UNDER
Brad Wilton
Monday comp play release will be the points and the Raptors to stay inside of the number at home against the Cavaliers.
Just when Cleveland looked like they were going to not drop a game in the playoffs, they went out on Saturday and dropped a turd in Game Three, scoring just 84 points in a 15-point loss to the Raptors.
Toronto is brimming with confidence, as well they should be since they are now 3-0 both straight up and against the spread this season when playing at home against Cleveland.
I look for the Raptors to make it hard on the Cavaliers, especially with the engaged home crowd on their side this Monday night.
Take the points and look for a close one.
2* TORONTO