Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 60-47 run with free picks: Cincinnati at L.A. DODGERS (-1', -145)
The STORYLINE in this game today - Quite a mismatch we have here, with Brandon Finnegan and Clayton Kershaw going at one another in Dodger Stadium. And I'd have to say, though the price above $3 tonight, it's worth it on the run line with Los Angeles' ace on the hill, against a rather mediocre lineup.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - We're just two months into the season, and Kershaw has been stellar in six consecutive starts, with at least 10 strikeouts and no more than one walk. He also has shutouts in two of his last four trips to the hill. He is 3-0 with a 1.13 in his last three starts. Cincy is in trouble.
BOTTOM LINE is - Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are Finnegan and Kershaw. If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play. Finnegan is 0-1 with a 5.52 ERA in his last three starts and faces a huge challenge in this one.
2* L.A. DODGERS -1.5
Chris Jordan
My free pick is on the San Diego Padres, as I like them to shock the Giants in San Francisco tonight. Be sure you're listing both scheduled pitchers in this one, as I like Drew Pomeranz over Johnny Cueto.
Here's the deal, this is a rematch from not too long ago, and Pomeranz is making a case for pitcher of the month, with a 1.13 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and .134 batting-average against in May.
The left-hander has already lost twice to the Giants this year, including last Wednesday when he allowed two runs over six frames in a showdown with Cueto. Tonight he'll be out for revenge.
Cueto, who has seemingly found a home at AT&T Park, is 2-1 with a 2.59 ERA, 25 strikeouts and only four walks in four home starts. But I know this guy, and he will implode at some point. He provides consistency, but he also can fall out of his groove, often.
1* SAN DIEGO
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is the Texas Rangers over the Angels, who come in from Anaheim to face a division-rival that has won three straight and is on a nice little run to start the week.
Texas is sitting 1.5 games back of the Seattle Mariners in the American League West, and it also 14-7 at home. The Rangers will be fired up for their return home, after sweeping through Houston over the weekend.
The Angels, meanwhile, have been playing well and are in after a 10-2 slaughter of the Orioles. They've won seven of 10, but that doesn't scare me. It means the Rangers will be at their best to avoid being beat at home by a formidable opponent.
Take the home team here.
2* RANGERS
Teddy Davis
A's vs. Mariners
Play: A's +116
The A's simply aren't getting enough respect here as they lost 4 in a row to the Yankees. I see them being extra motivated here as their ace Rich Hill takes the mound tonight. Hill has been off a a terrific start as he is 5-0 on road with a 1.76 ERA. He has simply been dominate on the road. The Mariners will counter with Taijuan Walker who got off to a good start, but has now cooled off. His last 3 starts his ERA is 5.68. I see the A's getting it done tonight at great value with their ace Hill.
Steve Janus
Kansas City -119
Play On - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (KANSAS CITY) - bad offensive team (4.5 or less runs/game) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.70 to 5.70)-AL, after allowing 4 runs or less 3 straight games. This system is 78-27 (74%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons.
Ray Monohan
Cavs vs. Raptors
Play: Cavs -6
The Cavaliers and Raptors play in Game 4 as Toronto finds themselves back in the series. However, this is going to be the most inspired game the Cavaliers are going to play here, as they looked horrible in Game 3.
Both Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving played their worst game of the postseason as neither could find their rhythm. Cleveland looked very timid and passive in the loss. They failed to get to the basket, which was something they really did well in Games 1 and 2.
Expect Cleveland to really push the issue here. This team is much stronger and more physical than the Raptors. If they can get to the basket, it will completely open up the 3 point line for JR Smith and Kevin Love to get some good looks.
Some trends to consider. Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Cleveland has bounced back after ATS losses and this is a solid instance here, where they will come out extremely motivated.
Jeff Alexander
Indians +104 Game 1
I like the value we are getting with Cleveland in Game 1 of today's double-header against the White Sox. Chicago has been struggling of late, going just 3-8 in their last 11 and part of the problem has been the performance of today's Game 1 starter in Mat Latos, who has fallen off the deep end after a great start to 2016. After posting a 0.74 ERA in his first 4 starts, Latos has a 7.84 ERA in his last 4, giving up at least 4 runs in each of his last 4 outings. Cleveland will counter with Mike Clevinger, who will be making his second big league start. Clevinger gave up 4 runs in his first outing, but only allowed 5 hits, walked just 1 batter and struck out 5 in 5 1/3 innings. I like what I saw from this kid and expect a much better showing in his second go of things. Keep in mind the White Sox are averaging just 2.9 runs/game over their last 7.
Jack Jones
Oakland A's +116
Good value here with the Oakland A's as road underdogs to the Seattle Mariners tonight. The A's come in highly motivated for a victory after dropping four straight, and I like their chances tonight with Rich Hill on the mound.
Hill has been the ace of Oakland's staff this season, going 6-3 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.127 WHIP in nine starts, including a perfect 5-0 with a 1.76 ERA and 0.978 WHIP in five road starts. Hill is 2-0 with a 1.83 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in three career starts against Seattle.
Taijuan Walker got off to a great start this season, but he has struggled of late, going 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA and 1.342 WHIP in his last three starts. Walker has never beaten the A's, going 0-1 with a monstrous 8.79 ERA and 1.745 WHIP in three career starts against them.
Seattle is 9-18 (-11.9 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last two seasons. Hill is 8-1 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in his career. Oakland is 5-1 in its last six meetings in Seattle.
Brandon Lee
A's/Mariners Under 7
Tonight's matchup between the A's and Mariners has a pitchers duel written all over it. Oakland's Rich Hill is 6-3 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.127 WHIP in 9 starts, with a 1.76 ERA and 0.978 WHIP in 5 road starts. Seattle's Taijuan Walker has a 2.95 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in 8 starts and has seen the UNDER cash in 4 of his 5 home starts. UNDER is 16-7-1 in A's last 24 against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 3-1-1 in the Mariners last 5 against a left-handed starter.
Scott Rickenbach
A's vs. Mariners
Play: A's +116
On the surface this match-up looks like it should be an "automatic play" on the Mariners. Remember that whenever something looks too good to be true it usually is! This is true even in baseball and there is a reason the odds makers installed Seattle as such a small favorite in this match-up. Even though it looks like a mismatch based on the fact that the M's have won 4 straight while the A's have lost 4 straight, I expect it to play out as anything but that. Yes, Seattle's Taijuan Walker has some impressive overall numbers so far this season but he is 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA (and has allowed five homers) in his past three starts. Also, Walker is winless with a 6.75 ERA in five career starts against Oakland. As for the Athletics Rich Hill, the southpaw is 6-3 with a 2.54 ERA in his 9 starts so far this season. On the road Hill has gone a stellar 5-0 with a 1.76 ERA and a fantastic 0.98 WHIP. In his two career starts at Seattle, the Oakland left-hander has allowed only 1 earned run on just 7 hits while striking out 17 in the 13 innings of work spanning those two outings. I look for another dominant outing for Hill at Safeco Field tonight. The road team is 6-0, 100% this season in all of these teams' meetings! The Mariners are 2-5 this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Also, Seattle is 18-28 when they are a home favorite of -125 or less the past three seasons combined. I see excellent road dog "upset" value in this one!
Jimmy Boyd
Phillies -106
Philadelphia continues to be one of the biggest surprises so far in 2016 and a big reason for that is their starting pitching. Hard to not like their chance with Vincent Velasquez on the mound against the struggling Mike Pelfrey. Velasquez is 5-1 with a 2.42 ERA and 0.993 WHIP in 8 starts. He allowed just 3 hits with 10 strikeouts in only 5 innings of work in his latest outing against the Marlins.
Shutting out the Tigers offense won't be easy, but he should be able to keep them check. Most importantly the Phillies offense figures to provide enough run support here to secure the win. Pelfrey is 0-4 with a 6.37 ERA and 1.829 WHIP in 8 starts. Detroit has only managed to win 2 of those 8 outings, including a 1-3 mark in his 4 home starts.
Phillies are 15-9 in their last 24 off a win and 14-3 in their last 17 after a game where there bullpen didn't allow a run. Philadelphia is also 16-5 in their last 21 against against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, while the Tigers are just 1-5 in their last 6 interleague home games against a team with a winning record.
Dave Price
Miami Marlins -127
This is a nice price for the Miami Marlins tonight considering the edge they have on the mound over the Tampa Bay Rays. Wei-Yin Chen was a huge addition to their rotation this offseason. Chen is 3-2 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.245 WHIP in 8 starts. He sports a 3.55 ERA in 19 lifetime starts vs. Tampa Bay dating back to his time with Baltimore. Matt Moore is the weakest link in Tampa Bay's rotation this season. He has gone 1-3 with a 5.09 ERA in 8 starts this year, including 0-1 with an 8.36 ERA in his last 3 starts. Chen is 40-17 (+19.0 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 lifetime. The Marlins are 13-3 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 3 seasons. The Rays are 1-7 in their last 8 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter. Tampa Bay is 0-5 in Moore's last 5 starts. The Marlins are 43-21 in their last 64 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Jesse Schule
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Toronto Raptors
Play: Toronto Raptors +6
Nobody gave the Raptors much of a chance at winning this series prior to Game 1, and after Cleveland mopped the flour with them in the opener, most were expecting a sweep. There's no denying that Toronto is out-gunned, and Cleveland is the more talented team, that should win the series. The fact is, Toronto finished the regular season with an almost identical record (1 game back), and won two of three in the season series. The Raptors owned the boards in Game 3, with Bizmack Biyombo pulling in 26 rebounds (the most in a playoff game since 1984). Kyle Lowry played well and DeMar DeRozan scored 32 points on 12-of-24 shooting. Toronto played well early in Game 2, before falling appart just a few minutes before the break. They were dominant in the first half of Game 3, and still they are the underdog at home tonight in Game 4. I expect a better effort from Cleveland here, but I still think Toronto plus the points is the better bet.
SPORTS WAGERS
Cleveland (Game 1) +104
Mike Clevinger was nervous when he made his major-league debut with the Indians last Wednesday. As a matter of fact, he was so nervous that he vomited prior to taking the mound. That didn’t prevent him from pitching well. Clevinger allowed just one run through five innings before faltering in the sixth. He wasn’t involved in the decision, but his club did come out on top in a 12-inning affair played in Cincinnati. A fourth-round pick by the Angels in 2011, Clevinger came to Cleveland in the 2014 deal that sent Vinnie Pestano west. Prior to being called up, Clevinger was 5-0 with a 3.03 ERA at Triple-A Columbus. Here’s what Cleveland’s pitching coach Mickey Callaway had to say about Clevinger’s outing, “In spring training, he was a lot of effort. He was King Kong. He was, ‘I want to throw as hard as I can.’ What I saw (on Wednesday) was a really controlled guy. He was in his legs really good; he was driving pitches. He kept his emotions in check a lot better than I thought he possibly could. “
“He was nervous before the game. He felt like he couldn’t feel his legs. But he got over those nerves pretty quick. When he gave up a hit to his first batter, I wondered if that would make him spin, or if it would be, ‘OK, I’m here and I’ve just got to make pitches.’ That’s what he did. He settled in and attacked hitters. I was impressed.”
Clevinger works quickly and is consistently ahead in the count. He impresses with his ability to move the ball all around the plate. He sits between 90-94 mph and has very good control on all of his pitches. He’ll also use his above average change-up against both righties and lefties and mix in a nice, little curveball. Clevinger walked just one batter in his MLB debut while striking out five in five innings. He had a nice 13% swing and miss rate and it would come as no surprise if he’s even better here. The market will pay great attention to Clevinger’s 6.75 ERA after that one start but we’re here to tell you it means absolutely nothing. This kid can pitch and he’s a better option than Mat Latos by the widest of margins.
Unless things correct very soon, and there are no signs that they will, Mat Latos has perhaps two months or less left in his career or to a demotion to the pen. Latos’ sub indicators (6% swing and miss rate, 51% first pitch strike rate, 38% ball %) are among the worst in the game. Over his last 27 innings, Latos has walked 12 and struck out 11. His WHIP over his last five starts is 2.06. Overall in 45 frames, Mat Latos has a BB/K split of 17/22. Latos is giving up more fly balls than last year, which does not bode well against the Indians at US Cellular Field.
Latos’s hot start notwithstanding (he’s 5-1) it would be wise to heed these warning signs, as he’s very unlikely to keep this line going much longer. This will be one of few remaining chances to sell high on Latos before his ERA corrects closer to his current 5.53 xERA.
L.A. Angels -1½ +160 over TEXAS
You can spot -105 or thereabouts if you like. We prefer the -1½-runs because of the bigger payout, therefore this is an altenate run-line wager. By game time that could change but us spotting 1½-runs will not.
Nick Tropeano has 43 K’s in 44 innings and a 3.30 ERA after eight starts. He also has a 13% swing and miss rate. Tropeano has benefitted from an unsustainable 85% strand rate but he has plenty of upside too. A solid fastball sets up his plus secondary pitches. All the components are all there for Tropeano to be a solid mid-rotation starter for years to come. He’s no ace but we don’t need him to be an ace here. Hell, we can even live with him giving up a bunch of runs because the Angels figure to go off big time on Derek Holland.
Seriously speaking, we’re not sure how Holland makes it through one inning. Here’s a guy that has three wins and three losses in eight games. Holland winning a game at this level is equivalent to Jack Nicklaus winning the U.S. Open this coming June. Holland does not have one notable skill other than his ability to throw hittable strikes. He has 21 K’s in 40 innings but that’s getting worse too. In fact, over his last five starts, Holland has struck out seven batters in 23 innings. His swing and miss rate in his last two starts was 1%. His xERA of 6.19 is the highest among all starters in the game that have six starts or more. Holland’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 30%/30%/40% is another ugly under the hood stat that says he should be getting whacked every game. Truth is, Holland is getting whacked but many of those balls are being hit right at people, as his .299 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) will attest to (league average is .310). Holland also has an awful 1.43 WHIP. Derek Holland should be getting knocked out in the third inning or before every start because he is serving up batting practice out there. Ever go to a ball game early and watch MLB players take batting practice? What happens is the machine is loaded with baseballs and the batter steps in there. Some balls are scorched to the outfield, some are hit over the fence and some shoot through the infield. Some are hit foul or popped up because the batter just misses. Very few are swung on and missed. That’s Derek Holland in a nutshell and he’ll now face a red-hot Angels lineup that has struck out the fewest times in MLB. The math is not hard to do.
DETROIT -103 over Philadelphia
The Phillies managed to salvage the final game of their three-game set against the Braves yesterday to run their record to a still impressive 25-19. Over their last seven games, the Phillies have three wins against the following three starters; Wei Yin Chen, Tom Koehler and Casey Kelly. Combined, that trio has five wins in 18 starts. The Phillies lackluster offense is 29th in baseball in scoring and homers, ahead of only the Braves in both categories. Now the Phillies are favored on the road because the starting pitching matchup seems to heavily favor them but we’re not so sure about that either.
Vincent Velasquez threw a somewhat decent game on May 17 against Miami by striking out 10 batters in five shutout innings but it took him 103 pitches to get there. While Velasquez's 59 K’s in 48 innings, 12% swing and miss rate and 3.10 xERA point to good signs, he has given up 11 earned runs in 24 innings on the road. Aside from one complete game masterpiece, Velasquez hasn’t gone more than six innings in any other start. If he goes six innings here and doesn’t allow a run, the Tigers will still likely have a chance to win. Incidentally, Detroit owns a .911 OPS during the last week, which is the best in the majors.
Guaranteed that 99% of major-league players check out the betting line every single day. Whether it’s in their hotel rooms at night, on the bus ride from the hotel to the stadium or in their own homes, they check it out because it is so easy too and because they like to know. The Tigers aren’t going to appreciate being a dog at home against Philadelphia. That’s disrespectful and nothing motivates professional athletes more than being disrespected. Furthermore, the players will have added motivation to get their starter a win, as Mike Pelfrey has zero wins in eight starts.
However, Pelfrey is close. In four of his eight starts, Pelfrey has allowed two runs or less. In his last two starts, Pelfrey has allowed two runs in both, which included a start at Camden Yards against the Orioles. Pelfrey is throwing 93 MPH with regularity. He has just 23 K’s in 41 innings but his 10% swing and miss rate over his last five starts strongly suggests that more strikeouts are coming. He also brings a solid 50% groundball rate. Mike Pefrey is pitching well enough to win some games. His surface stats will keep the market away but at the very worst, he’s giving the Tigers a chance to win and he’s coming on. GREAT buy-low opportunity here.
Will Rogers
Cleveland vs. Toronto
Pick: Over 197
The Toronto Raptors had no answer in Cleveland, allowing the Cavs to jump out to big leads in each of the first two games of this series. The Raptors actually played well in the first half of Game 2, until they collapsed in the final two minutes of the half. I expect to see a better effort offensively from the Cavs as they try to avoid a second straight loss in Toronto in Game 4.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History - Five of the last eight meetings between these two teams have gone over the total, and the over is 4-2 in Toronto's last six when playing on one day's rest. After trending under at the beginning of the post-season, Toronto has now gone over in four of six overall.
2. LeBron James - The King scored just 24 points in Game 1, but he shot 11-of-13 from the field. He only played 28 minutes, and he recorded a triple-double in Game 2. He had 24 points again in Game 3, but I expect him to go for 30 plus tonight.
3. X-Factor - The Cavs demolished the previous record for the most three-pointers in a game in their series versus Atlanta, and we know they can get hot from long range at any time.