DAVE COKIN
YANKEES AT BLUE JAYS
PLAY: YANKEES +140
Pretty much a by the numbers play for me today on the Yankees-Blue Jays battle. That is, this game is the biggest differential between the number I made on the game as opposed to the actual betting line.
I have the two starting pitchers very close overall. I think it’s fair to offer that Estrada is probably the more consistent of the two, but Nova has been decent enough since getting his rotation spot back. Nova can get blown up when his command in the strike zone vanishes, but that’s tough to predict and his overall data since coming back out of the bullpen has been okay.
The Yankees have a substantial advantage down the stretch in this game if it’s tied or they’re ahead after six innings. I think that’s definitely significant with Nova on the mound, as he’s not really a guy who is likely to go deep. But if I can get five or six quality innings from Nova, I should have a very good chance to win the final three innings, as all three of what amounts to the Yankee closers are available. The key guys should also be okay to go for the Jays, with the possible exception of Gavin Floyd. But there’s no debate on where the bullpen edge is in this game.
I’ll give the Jays a ten cent edge on the scheduling, as they’re staying at home while the Yankees are traveling north from Tampa. But I don’t see anything on the keys I focus on to justify Toronto being in the -150 neighborhood here. Granted, they’re starting to hit better and the New York offense can sputter at times. But I’ve got this game priced considerably lower than where it is at the windows right now. So at +140 or better, the Yankees are a side for me tonight.
Mike Lundin
Cardinals vs. Brewers
Play: Cardinals -120
The Milwaukee Brewers have won five of their past six, but keep in mind that they've faced the Braves and the Reds during that stretch. They'll run into a much tougher opponent on Memorial Day as the St. Louis Cardinals are coming to town, and I like the Cards in this matchup.
Carlos Martinez (4-5, 4.25 ERA) will take the ball for St. Louis. He's had a rough season and has been tagged with 14 runs in 15 innings through his past three starts. He dominated in two starts at Miller Park last season though and owns a 1.75 ERA there throughout his career. He's made 15 appearances versus Milwaukee overall, logging a 1-1 record behind a 1.34 ERA.
The Brew Crew turn to Junior Guerra (3-0, 3.30) who has pitched exceptionally well since joining the rotation. He's yielded three runs and recorded 21 strikeouts in 18 innings over his last three, but I don't see him keeping up these numbers.
The Cardinals are 9-2 in their last 11 visits to Miller Park so they're obviously very comfortable at this ballpark, and we can note that their on base percentage overall this season is the fourth best in the majors. Guerra's numbers are doomed to regress, and the Cardinals should give him heaps of problems today.
Marc Lawrence
Padres vs. Mariners
Play: Mariners -175
Edges: Mariners: Nate Karns 2-0 day starts this season; and 3.53 ERA with 1.29 WHIP this campaign. Padres: Andrew Cashner 5.93 ERA with 1.76 ERA overall this season. With Cashner in wobbly KW form with 12 BB’s and 10 K’s in his last three efforts, look for Karns to improve to 8-4 in his career team starts during May here today. We recommend a 1* play on Seattle.
Scott Spreitzer
Cardinals vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers +112
I think the casual fan may be surprised, but thanks to a current 5-1 run, the Brewers are just 2 1/2 games behind the Cardinals for third place in the NL Central standings. Today, they'll have the advantage of having the starting pitcher in better current form, while also facing potentially, a weary Cardinal pen. First of all, Cardinal righty Carlos Martinez has struggled thanks to physical problems and off-field issues. In fact, he was removed from one game with what was reported to be fatigue issues. The bottom line is that the Redbirds are on a 0-5 slide when he toes the rubber and he owns a hefty 6.84 ERA & 1.60 WHIP. Martinez has not lasted six full innings in any of his last four starts. The Brewers will counter with Junior Guerra, who has settled into the rotation in his last three starts. The right-hander has allowed just three earned runs, 20 base runners, and one home run in his last three starts, spanning 18 innings of work. He's punched-out 21 batters along the way and has a .209 BAA. His team has won all five of his starts. I expect some offensive support for Guerra with his team ranked in the top-9 at home in batting average, OBP, and OPS. Ryan Braun may sit on Monday, but with the way Jonathan Lucroy, Aaron Hill, and Jonathan Villar are hitting, I doubt they'll miss him. The bullpens are rather close in ERA, but the Cardinals' pen has been used quite a bit of late.
Ari Atari
Thunder vs. Warriors
Play: Warriors -7
This one could get ugly fast. The Warriors can build double digit leads faster than you can fill your next drink. OKC had their chance and they blew it while the Warriors can't lose when their superstar backcourt makes insane shots all over the opposite half of the court. Kevin Durant said it best about Curry and it applies to Thompson too, "He makes bad shots" Take the Warriors at Roar-acle Arena.
Art Aronson
Minnesota at Oakland
Play: Over 8½
Minnesota turns to Ervin Santana who gave up six runs off nine hits and two walks with four K’s over just 3.2 innings in a loss to the Royals on Tuesday. Santana would give up his fourth home run in eight starts and has failed to make it through four innings in three of his eight starts this season. Note that Santana has a poor 0-2, 5.57 ERA in all night games this year. The home side counters with Kendall Graveman (1-6, 5.36) who gave up two runs off seven hits and two walks over 4.1 innings in a no-decision vs. the Mariners on Tuesday. Graveman has been consistently inconsistent this season, given up a whopping 56 hits in 47 innings of work. Not surprisingly, Graveman owns a poor 1.60 WHIP and has just 113 K’s in his last 162.2 innings of work dating back to last year (and note that he’s 1-4 with a pedestrian 4.62 ERA in all night games thus far). With these two struggling starters going head-to-head on Monday, the OVER is absolutely worth a second look.
Matt Josephs
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Over 9
This play has a lot to do with the weather which will either postpone the game or will wreak havoc with the pitchers. Knuckleballer Steven Wright goes for Boston on Monday afternoon and he's hoping for sunny and warm. The wet weather will not help with the movement of his knuckler. Wright has been a little leaky as of late allowing 11 runs and 21 hits in his last three starts. He'll face an Orioles offense that is hitting .262 at home scoring 4.4 runs per game. If this one does have rain issues and the Red Sox bullpen comes into play, that's trouble for them. The group had a rough weekend to say the least in Toronto. Tyler Wilson is very mediocre. He's 2-3 with a 4.41 ERA in six starts for the O's with four of them going over the total. Wilson has allowed nine runs and 12 hits in his alst two starts which were losses to Houston and Seattle. He has never faced the Red Sox who are hitting nearly .300 against right-handed starters. These two played two overs in three meetings in Boston.
Larry Ness
Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Colorado Rockies
The Rockies just finished a 15-game stretch against five teams with winning records, including division leaders the Giants and Red Sox. Colorado won the first four games of that stretch but then dropped EIGHT of the last 11, finishing 7-8 overall. All in all, not a bad performance and a four-game series at home against the Cincinnati Reds just may bring some relief. The Reds are a MLB-worst 4-19 on the road (minus-$1,402), where they’ve been outscored on average, 6.39-to-3.35 RPG. They’ve averaged just three runs while hitting .191 over their last 12 games.
Dan Straily (2-2, 2.98 ERA) will get the nod for the Reds and Chad Bettis (4-3, 4.90 ERA) for the Rockies. Straily had a career high-tying 11 strikeouts Wednesday but he took the hard-luck loss after giving up three runs and three hits in seven innings against Dodgers. He made three relief appearances to begin the season but since moving into the rotation, has allowed three runs or less in each of his eight starts. Cincy is counting on Straily to pick up a pitching staff that has posted a 6.85 ERA during the team's current 1-12 stretch.
Bettis takes the mound after getting pounded for a season-high seven runs on seven hits and four walks over just 4.2 innings in a 10-3 loss at Boston on Wednesday. However, he had logged at least six innings in each of his previous eight starts, with the Rockies winning five times. Bettis enjoyed one of his better outings of the season in a no-decision at Cincinnati back on April 20, allowing three runs on three hits in six innings. Colorado has won 13 of the last 22 overall meetings and 19 of its previous 27 at home against Cincinnati since 2008.
It’s NEVER too hard to make a case for playing against the Reds. That’s the bet.
Will Rogers
San Jose vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Under
The San Jose Sharks and the Pittsburgh Penguins will meet in the Stanley Cup Finals, and Game 1 goes Monday. These are the two highest scoring teams in the playoffs, and because of that we see a higher than usual total (5.5). I expect both teams to have a more cautious and conservative approach in the series opener.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History - Pittsburgh won the last meeting by a score of 5-1, but the total went under in each of the previous three meetings. Goals have been few and far between when these teams play in Pittsburgh, going under at a rate of 5-1-1 in the last seven.
2. Martin Jones - The Sharks netminder stopped 24-of-26 shots in a big win in Game 7 of the Western Conference Final, and he's 12-6 with a 2.12 GAA in the post-season. Jones has registered three shutouts in his last seven starts.
3. X-Factor - The under is 8-3-2 in Penguins last 13 Stanley Cup Finals games.
Don Best Consensus
White Sox at Mets
Pick: Over
Over is 13-2-1 in CHW last 16 road games. Over is 8-3 in NYM last 11 interleague games. Harvey is all out of sync, his last three starts he is 0-3 with a 10.80 ERA! In addition, Quintana has given up 3 earned runs or more for the second straight start.
Jim Feist
Houston at Arizona
Pick: Houston
The Astros still trying to climb their way out of the AL West cellar. Now they can see the light, as just 1/2 game separates them from last to third. The Astros have now won two series in a row, taking three from Baltimore and then two of three from the Angels over the weekend. Collin McHugh starts today with a 4-4 record and 5.13 ERA. McHugh has steadily seen his ERA drop game by game from 7.56 on April 22 to his current 5.13. McHugh has walked just two batters in his last two starts while striking out 18. Like Houston, the Diamondbacks have been underachievers this season. Edwin Escobar makes his first start of the season and his first appearance in the big leagues since 2014 with the Red Sox. The Astros have shown some life of late. I don't expect to see much from Escobar here today.
Jeff Benton
Your Monday winner is the Under in the Sharks-Penguins game.
The Sharks start their first-ever Stanley Cup Finals appearance with 3 straight Overs played, but tonight I will look for their string of Overs come to an end as I expect both sides to be feeling each other out in this first game.
The Penguins closed out Tampa Bay with a 2-1 win in Game 7, as they snapped a string of 4 straight playoff Overs.
The price on the Over stands at 5 1/2, and I think that half goal looms large in this meeting.
I can see a game that features 5 combined goals, but not one that has any more than 5.
The Under is 5-1-1 the last 7 series meetings in Pittsburgh.
Game 1 holds Under to get this series started.
4* SAN JOSE-PITTSBURGH UNDER
Brad Wilton
While both teams are capable of ringing up the big numbers, I think it is best to side with the Under here in Game Seven of the West Finals.
Game Six gave us the blueprint for what I expect to see tonight in Game Seven.
Look for the end result to be right around the 210-point plateau, and this series decided just does stay Under the total.
Four of the Six games played in this series have stayed Under the total, and four of the last five games played between these teams at Oracle Arena have also held Under the posted total.
Look for another Under here to close out the West Finals.
2* OKLAHOMA CITY-GOLDEN STATE UNDER
Chris Jordan
My free play for Memorial Day is on the Chicago Cubs over the Los Angeles Dodgers, getting it done at Wrigley Field.
The Dodgers did everything they could to ruin Clayton Kershaw's brilliance performance last night, against the Mets in Queens, but even after New York tied it in the bottom of the eighth, Los Angeles was able to put together a decent top half of the ninth to pull out the win. Now the Dodgers hit the Windy City and I think they're going to be a bit hungover from last night's win.
Chicago boasts the best record in baseball and is enjoying a five-game win streak. The Cubbies are 17-6 at home. During their win streak, the Cubbies are hitting nearly .320 during with 38 runs after plating just six runs during their three-game skid.
Chicago is also in on a winning run of 42-16 at home dating back to last season.
Great spot to catch the Dodgers, who will be running on fumes after last night's late win.
3* CUBS
Scott Delaney
My free play for Monday night is on the New York Yankees, in Toronto, against the Blue Jays, and I want you listing the scheduled starters in this one. Personally, I think it's the biggest reason the Yankees win, and that's why I'm taking Ivan Nova over Marco Estrada.
Nova, who has logged a 2.74 ERA in four starts after beginning the year in the bullpen, is facing Toronto for the second straight start after allowing four runs and seven hits in 6-2/3 innings in an 8-4 loss on Wednesday. As good as he's been pitching, the right-hander will be looking for revenge tonight, as it was Estrada who got the win in that game.
Yes, Estrada has allowed five hits or fewer in seven of his nine starts this year, and he's allowed more than three earned runs just twice. But last Wednesday Estrada allowed three runs over seven innings in what wasn't one of his better outings.
I'll take a shot here with the road team. List both.
4* YANKEES