Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 62-52 run with free picks: Chicago White Sox at N.Y. METS (+110)
The STORYLINE in this game today - The New York Mets are still at home after blowing last night's game in the top of the ninth, and I'm going to give them a shot to redeem themselves to me, as they host the Chicago White Sox. I like the defending National League champs as my free play, and I don't want you listing pitchers in this game. Personally, I don't think Jose Quintana is better than Matt Harvey, and even though they've both lost their last three starts and Chicago's No. 2 hurler has an ERA that remains in the top 10 in all of baseball, I don't see how the Pale Hose are the favorites. This is pure value no matter who is throwing.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - The White Sox's demise has been predicated on bad pitching. They went from being the hottest team in baseball, and in the same discussion as the Chicago Cubs for a World Series clash, to being swept in consecutive series. This team's pitching staff has been utterly disgusting, as it's posted a 6.10 ERA and allowed at least five runs in five of the six during a six-game losing streak, with the bullpen at 7.79. Now you throw this team at a pissed-off Mets team in a matinee clash?
BOTTOM LINE is - This is a great spot for the Mets to get good, as they come in on a 2-3 slide that has seen them hit .172. Yet they're just 1.5 games back of the Washington Nationals in the National League East, and a respectable 14-10 at home on the year. I'm playing the Mets in this early one as my freebie, and again, don't list pitchers.
4* METS
Jack Jones
Washington Nationals -137
The Washington Nationals are showing solid value as road favorites over the Philadelphia Phillies today. I like their chances of winning Game 1 of this series thanks to the advantage they have on the mound.
Tanner Roark is making the most of his move up to the rotation this year. He's 3-4 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.222 WHIP in 10 starts this season. Roark faced the Phillies on April 28, pitching 7 shutout innings in a 3-0 loss.
Jeremy Hellickson is 4-3 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.235 WHIP in 10 starts. He's clearly overvalued right now after that start because it's the first time he's had success in the majors in a long time. Hellickson is 1-2 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.475 WHIP in four career starts against Washington.
Philadelphia is 4-16 (-12.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Monday over the last 3 seasons. The Phillies are 5-21 in their last 26 Monday games. The Phillies are 9-23 in their last 32 during game 1 of a series.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Jose Series +120
The experts and most folks are calling this one of the closest finals in years. You could ask 100 fans who they like and there is a good chance that 50 will choose Pittsburgh and 50 will choose San Jose. Both squads have great offensive weapons, star power, solid goaltending and good coaching. The Penguins easily disposed of Cup favorite Washington in the second round while the Sharks put away one of the Cup favorites, Los Angeles in the first round. In their other two rounds, Pittsburgh wiped out the primed to get beat New York Rangers and the pesky but very lucky Lightning. Truth be told, Pittsburgh outplayed the Bolts by a wide margin. In San Jose’s other two rounds, they beat the goalie-less Predators and a Blues’ squad that was coached by a buffoon.
Marc-Eduoard Vlasic is the best defensive defensemen in the league. He was a gold medal winning defensemen in 2014 on one of the deepest tournament teams in history. And oh by the way, it was also a team that was coached by Ken Hitchcock. So if anyone should know that Vlasic is capable of stifling offensively gifted players, it should be Hitch. In a series where the Blues had home ice advantage and the ability to dictate the matchups the majority of the time, Colonel Beefcakes decided it would be in his best interest to match Vlaimir Tarasenko against Vlasic 60% of the time. Instead of letting Troy Brouwer, David Backes and the rest of the slobbering fools who weren’t going to score unless they had three undefended shots at an empty net get shutdown by Vlasic, Hitchcakes decided to use his best offensive player as the guy to neutralize Vlasic. The Sharks dominated the Blues and had it not been for Brian Elliott, that series would have been over in five games. That brings us to what we’re suggesting will be the difference in this series.
If defense wins championships then San Jose is the prudent choice here. The Penguins are not going to be able to roam free like they did against the Bolts. They are not going to pressure San Jose’s defense into coughing it up constantly. San Jose will move out of their end quickly and efficiency like they always do and like it did against three of the strongest puck possession teams in the NHL in the first three rounds. Whatever Kris Letang can do offensively, (or defensively) Brett Burns can do better. The loss of Trevor Daley hurts the Penguins defense greatly. It forces Letang to play extensive minutes and he was very average in the last round. It also forces Mike Sullivan to give extra time to defensemen that otherwise would be averaging roughly six minutes less per game. The Pens do not have a shutdown defenseman like the Sharks have or like Stanley Cup teams of the past had. Think Scott Stevens, Duncan Keith, Drew Doughty and Nicklas Lidstrom. Now think Marc-Eduoard Vlasic. He's a big reason Tyler Toffoli of the Kings, Filip Forsberg of the Predators and Vladimir Tarasenko of the Blues were all nowhere to be found in their respective series. Whether it’s Phil Kessel, Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin, Peter DeBoer will sense early on which player looks too good out there and will send out Vlasic to negate him. The Penguins have no such luxury.
Other than defense, it’s a very even series. San Jose can trade punches with the Penguins any day. The Sharks were putting up crooked numbers against some strong Western teams while the Penguins averaged about three goals a game against two weak defensive teams in New York and Tampa Bay. This series could also come down to goaltending and it’s difficult to give an edge to Matt Murray or Martin Jones so we’ll call that a wash. If Murray steals a game or two and Pittsburgh goes on to win the Cup, it would not surprise anyone. However, we’re suggesting that San Jose will be the better team and will hold a significant edge in possession time in Pittsburgh’s end. Defensively, it’s not a close series and that figures to be the difference.
We bet four units in Pittsburgh to win the Cup at 2-1 before the last round. That’s great value but it gives us other options too. We therefore stand to win eight units but we are going to take seven of those units and bet it on San Jose to beat the Penguins.
As for Game 1, we are going to watch it and see what happens. If you do not have a series wager, we recommend a bet on San Jose.
Bob Balfe
Warriors -7
The Warriors were down and out and now have tied things up. There is no way I go against them tonight. This is the best team in the NBA and they are starting to heat up again. The Thunder just don’t have super stars that can close out games and I expect another slip up late. 7 points might seem like a lot, but Golden State can go up by double digits in just a few minutes.
Mets +105
What better way for Matt Harvey to break out of his slump? The White Sox are in town and they will give away this game even if they are up big. This is a team in which I think we are going to see a coaching change real soon. The bullpen for the Sox has been brutal as this team can’t finish games.
Harry Bondi
TAMPA BAY -105 over Kansas City
Kansas City has been good and lucky lately. The Royals trailed in the seventh inning or later in all three games of a weekend sweep of the Chicago White Sox! We think that luck runs out tonight against underrated Tampa starter Matt Andriese. He is a perfect 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA and opposing batters are hitting just .196 against him. Andriese has also allowed just one run over 7 2/3 innings of work against Kansas City and faces off against the Royals worst starting pitcher Ian Kennedy who was routed by Minnesota 10-4 his last time out and is 0-4 with a 7.99 ERA lifetime against the Rays.
Jesse Schule
Oklahoma City at Golden State
Pick: Oklahoma City
The Warriors have won back to back games to force a Game 7 at Oracle Arena, but neither of those wins were particularly convincing. They trailed 53-48 at halftime in Game 6, and they have trailed at the half in three of the last four games in this series. The only thing that saved them from elimination in Game 6 was the red hot shooting from Klay Thompson, who hit 11 three-pointers. If the Warriors are counting on Thompson (not Curry) to carry the load here in Game 7, they could be in trouble. The Thunder have really turned up the defensive intensity in the playoffs, not just in this series, but also in their semi finals series versus San Antonio. Steven Adams continues to own the boards, and he had three blocks in Game 6. Golden State has made it a habit to start slowly, and I don't like the Warriors chances of covering the spread as a big favorite in the first half of Game 7.
Brandon Lee
Twins +105
Minnesota has caught fire offensively, scoring 25 runs over their current 4-game winning streak. I like their chances of keeping it going against the A's on Monday. Oakland will send out Kendall Graveman, who has a ugly 5.36 ERA and 1.596 WHIP in 9 starts. The A's are a miserable 1-8 in those 9 starts, including 0-4 in his 4 starts at home. Minnesota will give the ball to Ervin Santana, who has owned the A's over his career. He's 15-6 with a 2.07 ERA and 1.175 WHIP in 27 starts against Oakland. A's are also just 4-12 in their last 16 home games after allowing 4 runs or less in 3 straight games.
Jimmy Boyd
White Sox -117
I'm going to continue to fade the Mets with Matt Harvey on the mound until he shows he's got things figured out. New York is just 3-7 in his 10 starts this season and Harvey comes in with a 10.79 ERA and 2.324 WHIP over his last 3 starts.
On the other side of the mound, we have one of the AL's top starters in Jose Quintana, who has a 2.22 ERA and 1.015 WHIP in 10 starts. Quintana has thrived on the road, posting a 2.05 ERA in 5 road starts. He'll have a big advantage here, as this will be the first time he's faced the Mets in his career. New York is also scoring just 2.6 runs/game against left-handed starters this season.
White Sox are 10-4 in their last 14 interleague road games against a right-handed starter, while the Mets are 1-4 in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning record and 1-5 in their last 6 against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Michael Alexander
Dodgers vs. Cubs
Play: Cubs -123
Chicago starter Hammel allowed one run and four hits over a season-high 7 1/3 innings at St. Louis on Tuesday to avoid consecutive losses for the first time this year. The 33-year-old from South Carolina has given up two runs or fewer in seven of his nine outings and has served up only three home runs in 54 frames. Chicago comes into this one with a 9-3 record vs. left-handers (averaging 5.8 runs per game) and LA starter Alex Wood hasn't had much success for LA, as the Dodgers have lost in 6 of his 9 starts this year (4.03 ERA).
Frank Jordan
Yankees vs. Blue Jays
Play: Yankees +136
The Yankees did something special and unique last night they won the game with just one hit total in the game as Castro hit a home run after a Gardner walk as the Yankees went from being no hit to leading the game 2-1. Once the got the lead they turned things over to the three headed bullpen monster who pitched three perfect innings while striking out seven of the nine batters they faced. With that win the Yankees took two of three from Tampa Bay and have won seven of 10. Toronto has also won seven of 10, but dropped the game yesterday in extra innings to the Red Sox. These two teams just played three in the Bronx with the Blue Jays winning two of three and the Blue Jays took two of three in Toronto in April from the Yankees. Toronto has Marco Estrada on the mound who is 2-2 on the year with a sub three ERA and a win last time out over the Yankees where he went seven inning allowing three runs on four hits. The Yankees are throwing Ivan Nova who is 3-2 on the year with a 3.65 ERA and Nova was the starter against Estrada last week and he went into the seventh allowing just four runs, but was the losing pitcher as the pen couldn't hold Toronto down. Look for another pitchers duel between these two pitchers, but it will be Nova getting the better result this time in a 4-3 Yankees win.
SPS Investors
St. Louis vs. Milwaukee
Pick: St. Louis
There is no question that Carlos Martinez has been struggling as of late. He is 4-5 with a 4.25 ERA after having lost his 5th straight trip to the mound. The perception of Martinez and his ability to produce a quality outing is arguably at an all-time low, but that is typically when the most value presents itself. Yes, Martinez has struggled in the month of May, but he had an excellent April, which has long been forgotten. He also has spectacular numbers against the Brewers in his career, sporting a 1.34 ERA in 33.2 innings of work.
Despite Martinez struggles on the mound, he does have a solid team behind him which is easy to forget. The Cardinals currently lead the league in batting average (.301) and have scored a total of 207 runs this season, with 108 of those runs coming in the 7th inning or later, which also tops the league.
As for the Brewers; pitching has seemingly been their downfall thus far. They rank 25th in the league in ERA, posting a combined 4.57 through the first few months of the season. The Brewers will send Junior Guerra to the mound this afternoon. It appears that Guerra has been one of the few bright spots in the starting rotation as he is 3-0 with a 3.30 ERA in 30 innings of work this season. That being said, Guerra is due for a poor outing and we believe it will happen against this veteran Cardinals lineup, which he has never navigated through.
This is a matchup where we believe perception and recent performances have dictated the odds. Guerra has been playing well above his head this season, while Martinez has had a rough couple of outings. We believe everything will start to revert back to the mean (average) in this contest. At the end of the day, the Cardinals are the overall better "team" and to get them at these favorable odds has value.
Tennis Insiders
Dominic Thiem v Marcel Granollers
Pick: Over 34.5
These two have met on three occasions, all on clay, cashing the over twice. Dominic Thiem is a -900 favorite for this one, but expect a much closer match. Thiem has a habit of starting slow, dropping the first set in two of his three matches so far at the French Open. He may have defeated Granollers three times, but lost the first set in two of these matches. Granollers comes in fresh, having benefitted from a retirement during his 2nd round match & Nadal's shock withdrawl before the 3rd round. Thiem has cashed the over in his last 5 French Open matches, and this total looks quite low. He enters into his 3rd consecutive week of tennis, having taken the the title in Nice the week before Roland Garros. While he may advance again here, Granollers is by far the more rested player and will push the Austrian all the way. The winner of this will face Goffin/Gulbis for a semi-final berth, expect both men to throw everything they have into this one. Play the over 34.5!
Andrew Lange
Washington at Philadelphia
Play: Washington -140
I'm not sure bettors are fully aware of what Washington's Tanner Roark has been up to this season. For starters, his K per nine inning rate is up from 5.68 to 8.29. Last season, Roark posted 10 swinging strikes in only one of his 12 starts. This season he's done it four times and is AVERAGING nine swinging strikes per game. And when he's not missing bats, he boasts the highest percentage (31.5%) of "soft" contact amount qualified MLB starters. He also is inducing ground balls at a career high 54% rate. Bottom line is Roark is pitching like an ace but not priced like one. There's not much reason to knock Jeremy Hellickson who through 10 starts has performed at an above average National League level. He's had a little trouble with the home run (9 allowed) but managed to be right at a hit allowed and strikeout per inning -- two benchmarks of a competent starter. But our reason for supporting the Nats is not only Roark's excellence but the overall discrepancy between these two squads. Three and a half games separate these two teams in the standings but a whopping 1.9 runs per game do as well. This is a game that post-All-Star break could very easily be priced in the -180 or higher range. At less than -150, the road favorite deserves our support.
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota +101 over OAKLAND
If you can’t throw strikes in this league, you are going to lose far more games than you win. Enter Kendall Graveman, who appears to be laboring or running on fumes. Graveman has made nine starts this season. In his first five, he walked just eight batters over 29 innings but in his last four starts he has walked 11 over 18.1 innings. His swing and miss rate has shrunk from 9% over his first five starts to just 4% over his last four starts. Throw in a WHIP of 1.60 an opponent BA of .297 and an xERA of 4.97 and he has zero appeal spotting a tag, especially when you consider the team he pitches for.
Minnesota’s offense has heated up. Over the past 15 games, Minnesota has scored the fourth most runs in MLB. The Twinkies are also coming off a three-game sweep in Seattle’s Safeco Field and did heavy damage against some damn good pitchers. They have not been getting the starting pitching to compliment the offense but that could change here. Santana has 31 K’s in 36 innings after just eight starts. His season began in July last year thanks to an 80-game PED suspension. Santana started poorly, coughing up 11 HR in 55 innings but he roared down the stretch with just one HR allowed over his final 7 starts. Particularly given his hiatus, this skill set looks remarkably stable, which has continued this year. Santana’s velocity is up to 92 MPH and his swing and miss rate is also above league average at 11%. This is of course just one game in which anything can happen but we’re after value and in that regard, the A’s are one of the weakest hitting teams in the league against right-handers. The Twinkies bring some momentum into this series and surely have to be feeling a lot better about things after sweeping the Mariners.
CLEVELAND -1½ +140 over Texas
We attacked Derek Holland in his last start and although we won the bet, Holland pitched a decent 6.2 innings by allowing just seven hits and two earned runs against the Angels. We put no weight on that performance because Holland was lucky. Over his last 24 innings, Holland has struck out eight batters with a 4% swing and miss rate. In 47 frames, he has 25 K’s. His inability to strike out batters means he can’t get out of jams on his own and relies on batted balls variance. He’ll get in jams for sure because his weak profile can’t prevent it. Holland’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 30%/30%/40% is another ugly under the hood stat that says he should be getting whacked every game. Truth is, Holland is getting whacked but many of those balls are being hit right at people, as his .299 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) will attest to (league average is .310). Holland’s BABIP should be well above league average because he is one of the most hittable pitchers in the game.
After spending most of 2015 at AAA-Columbus, Josh Tomlin received a rotation audition in August and passed with flying colors. Tomlin posted an impressive 3.02 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over 10 starts with the Tribe, which was enough for him to make the starting rotation entering 2016. Dude just goes out there every five days and almost always gives a strong performance. Tomlin's elite control anchors his overall skill set (just 6 BB in 51 innings). An excellent first-pitch strike rate confirms he'll continue to be stingy with the free pass. He misses enough bats to sustain a league-average K-rate, which puts his command in formidable territory. In what's been a somewhat limited sample size, Tomlin has quietly managed to string together two straight seasons of near elite skills at the MLB level. An elite control will keep him in games and while his xERA (3.75) doesn't project a full breakout, Tomlin is still a rock solid investment. By the way, the Indians have scored 91 times over the past 15 games, which is tops in the league, even ahead of the Red Sox.
Dodgers (5 innings) +105
Yesterday we wrote about the Cubs unsustainable record and they went out there and walloped the Phillies as a 2-1 favorite. Now the Dodgers roll into town and the oddsmakers have made the hometown Cubbies a rather small price. If you bite, the house will be pleased because that’s exactly what they want you to do. The Dodgers bullpen is shaky so we’ll leave them out of this but first we’ll recap some of the facts we mentioned yesterday. The Cubs have had extreme fortune in stringing together hits to create big innings. That’s not going to last. Chicago is hitting .251 overall. Over their past 20 games, they are hitting .238. The Cubbies strike out a lot, they don’t hit for a high average, yet they are playing .708 ball because every bounce has gone their way this year. Things get a lot tougher here for Chicago against Alex Wood.
Wood quietly posted the best skills in May of any starter not named Kershaw: 13.1 K’s/9, 1.5 BB’s/9 54% groundballs. His second-level peripherals were strong too: 12.6% swing and miss rate, 67% first-pitch strike rate, 34% ball %. A 24% hr/f was the only reason his ERA is above 3.00 in May. There is nothing more to be said about Wood.
Jason Hammel’s first full season with the Cubs ended with a significant downturn in the second half (5.03 ERA in 68 innings) that prompted some to undervalue him heading into 2016. He has quieted the doubters with a 2.17 ERA through nine starts (54 IP). Is he developing into an ace? Absolutely not, as many of Hammel’s skills have actually declined. Not only is his strikeout rate down, but it’s accompanied by a dip in swing and miss %. However, his K-rate is still roughly average, so it’s not a major concern. The escalation in free passes and corresponding worsening ball % is worrisome. He hasn’t been able to hang on to those 2015 gains. Hammel’s ability to induce groundballs at a high percentage has been a very positive occurrence, as it has, along with a lucky hr/f, assisted in home run prevention (hr/9). A fortuitous strand rate has been a big factor in his success, as illustrated by an xERA almost two full runs higher than his ERA. After faring pretty well vs. LHB in 2014-15, he has again struggled so far in 2016, thanks largely to an 18% BB%. Hammel is a solid pitcher, but he’s much closer to league average than his current ERA would indicate. Barring improvement with regard to his control and work vs. left-handed batters, Hammel could be in for some rough times ahead, particularly against lefty-heavy lineups. The Dodgers are a heavy left-handed lineup that will feature Adrian Gonzalez, Corey Seager, Chase Utley, Joc Pederson, Carl Crawford (if he plays) and Yasmani Grandal.
N.Y. Yankees +126 over TORONTO
Marco Estrada continues to make us look bad because he keeps going out there and getting people out. Estrada comes into this game with a 2.76 ERA after nine starts. How he does it is a complete mystery because he shouldn’t be. It’s a case of the fabled "Career-best performance with career-worst skills." Estrada’s low hit percentage and high strand rate continue to do the heavy lifting. Nearly half his metrics are in steady decline. He’s succeeding with an 88 MPH fastball, a 35%/48% groundball/fly-ball split and a weak 55% first-pitch strike rate. In his last start, Estrada walked four and struck out two. He has a completely unrealistic 0.9% hr/f rate. To give you an idea of how extreme that is, Estrada’s hr/f rate is the lowest among starters with a fly-ball lean and it’s not even close. Estrada is not going to be able to keep the ball in the park much longer. This is a below average pitcher that is getting by on average skills and a ton of luck. His surface ERA has him way overvalued, which makes him instant fade material.
Meanwhile, Ivan Nova is one of several starters in the Yanks rotation worth buying low on. He was excellent in May (2.74 ERA, 1.09 WHIP). Those marks were supported by similarly strong skills: 6.3 K’s/9, 1.6 BB’s/9 and a 62% groundball rate. Nova’s elite groundball tilt will help him sustain those shiny results in HR-happy parks like the one he’ll pitch in here. Add in the Yankees superior bullpen and it all comes down to value once again. Marco Estrada remains one of the most overvalued pitchers in baseball but it’s all going to come crashing down at some point because he’s not this good.
Wunderdog
Los Angeles @ Chicago
Pick: Los Angeles +127
Los Angeles comes off a big win at New York last night. Alex Wood takes the mound today, following three straight quality starts while allowing just four earned runs in 18 1/3 innings. Wood missed one start with a minor triceps injury and hasn't pitched since May 21 when he struck out 13 batters and walked only one at San Diego. The left-hander is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA against the Cubs the last three years. The Dodgers are 14-12 away from home and have won six of their last 10 games and are getting a good price in this matchup. Jason Hammel got good run support in a 12-3 win at St. Louis his last outing after allowing four runs in five innings in a 5-3 loss at Milwaukee.